Jump to content
Housebuye

Who wins the team title next year?

Recommended Posts

Assuming no Olympic redshirts on either team it’s going to be the closest team race in years between Iowa and PSU. I have PSU edging Iowa out even though I wouldn’t currently pick anyone on PSU to win their weight. To clarify: I think it’s likely someone on PSU will win an individual title...but as of now I think Steveson takes a step forward (and past Cassar), and Valencia separates even more from Hall. I also think people are increasingly figuring Cenzo out and would be really surprised if he wins it next year.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 5/30/2019 at 1:35 PM, Jimmy Cinnabon said:

Where do you see potential 7 finalists for PSU?  I see 5.  RBY is AA candidate, so is Beard but neither are potential finalists IMO.

141 - Nick Lee

165 - Joseph

174 - Hall

184 - Rasheed (if he returns)

Hwt - Cassar (if he returns)

Add in Konel/Beard at 197. 

At 184, Brooks or Rasheed

at 157, Berge. Extremely weak weights, especially if Hidlay and Deakin take Olympic shirts. Not picking him to be a finalist, but I was referring to best case scenario

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 5/30/2019 at 11:12 AM, lu1979 said:

I think you are way to optimistic about Cornell.  They have 4 strong AA contenders in Vito, Yianni, Max, & Darmstadt (assuming he is healthy).  Tucker is tough but in a loaded weight - he will have to step up his game to make the podium.  Womack is also an outside shot to AA.  They really havn't shown that they have anyone that can compete on a high level at 149, 157, 165 (I include Berrysea) and 285.  This could change if they bring in some of their star laden-ed recruiting class to beef up some of those weak spots.  I will be interested to see who grey shirts for them.   Right now it appears that the race is between PSU & Iowa with others playing catch up.

I hear you, but if all 4 of those guys end up top 3,  which is reasonable, that is 80ish points already. They will need the other 6 guys to get 30ish points and they can win. 

Cornell has been loading up for a title run in 2020. They may even start a true freshman or two. An AA at 133 and 174 is realistic. 165 is in play too. Remember Cornell tends to over perform at NCAAs. 

It’s a long shot, but look at the other contenders. PSU could have big holes themselves, depending on how they have improved. 125, 149, 157, 184 and 197 are questions. 285 too without Cassar. 

Iowa could reasonably not AA at 133, 141, 149, 165, 174, 184 and maybe even heavyweight although I do think Cass is good enough to do it. Iowa has a bunch of solid guys but it wouldn’t be a shock if they had a bunch of R12 guys 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
22 minutes ago, Housebuye said:

I hear you, but if all 4 of those guys end up top 3,  which is reasonable, that is 80ish points already. They will need the other 6 guys to get 30ish points and they can win. 

Cornell has been loading up for a title run in 2020. They may even start a true freshman or two. An AA at 133 and 174 is realistic. 165 is in play too. Remember Cornell tends to over perform at NCAAs. 

It’s a long shot, but look at the other contenders. PSU could have big holes themselves, depending on how they have improved. 125, 149, 157, 184 and 197 are questions. 285 too without Cassar. 

Iowa could reasonably not AA at 133, 141, 149, 165, 174, 184 and maybe even heavyweight although I do think Cass is good enough to do it. Iowa has a bunch of solid guys but it wouldn’t be a shock if they had a bunch of R12 guys 

I would love to see it as I am a big EIWA fan.  Cornell is my 2nd favorite team behind my alma matter and I think Koll is great.  You are right about the top 4 guys - I would love to see them skip the grey shirts on anyone they think can help the effort next year - we shall see.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 5/30/2019 at 10:03 AM, MSU158 said:

Gotta go with Iowa this year simply because I picked them to win at least once with Lee.  If forced to bet money, I would have to fall back on PSU, so I WILL NOT be betting money!  Still if you go side by side with Iowa against any team next season, even PSU looks hard pressed to win

125 Iowa:  Lee-2x Champ----------PSU: Likely 0-2-------------------tOSU: Heinselman-maybe a couple of points--------------------------OkState-Picc 3rdish

133 Iowa: DeSanto-4thish---------PSU: 7th/8thish-------------------tOSU: 4thish------------------------------------------------------------------------------OkState-Finalist

141 Iowa:  Murin-low AA/R12---PSU:  3rd-5th-----------------------tOSU: 0-2----------------------------------------------------------------------------------OkState-low AA/R12

149 Iowa: Lugo-mid-low AA------PSU:  R12-R16--------------------tOSU: IF Hayes, mid-low AA------------------------------------------------------OkState-low AA/R12

157 Iowa:  Young-High AA--------PSU:  low AA/R12---------------tOSU: IF Sasso, mid AA-R12-----------------------------------------------------OkState-maybe a pt. or 2

165 Iowa: Finalist-low AA---------PSU: Finalist-mid AA----------tOSU:  maybe a pt. or 2--------------------------------------------------------------OkState-Depends on if fat Joe shows up say low AA for now

174 Iowa: Kemerer-High AA-----PSU: Finalist-----------------------tOSU:  R12---------------------------------------------------------------------------------OkState-R12ish

184 Iowa: Wilcke-Mid AA-R16  PSU: wide range-----------------tOSU:  wide range----------------------------------------------------------------------OkState-low AA R12ish

197 Iowa: Warner-Mid-low AA PSU: wide range-----------------tOSU:  Finalist-----------------------------------------------------------------------------OkState-maybe a pt or 2

285 Iowa: Cass-wide range-----PSU: Finalist-----------------------tOSU:  maybe low AA-R16----------------------------------------------------------OkState-maybe a pt or 2

 

1.)Iowa has proven AA caliber at every weight but 285 and Cass has wrestled so much that he has proven AA is probable. 

2.)PSU has question marks at 125, 149, 157, 184 and 197.  If their history holds with new guys hitting the ground running, they will be very hard to beat.  Still, it is hard to say AT THIS POINT IN TIME, what you will get from that group.

3.) tOSU will have huge holes to fill at 141 and 184.  On top of that I just don't see many points from 125, 141 and 165.  For them to truly contend Sasso and Hoffman have to AA high with Moore winning it and Pletcher again making top 4.  They look like they just have too many holes this year to make it happen.

4.)OkState takes a BIG hit at 197 and 285.  I just don't see them recouping most of those points.  157 also looks like a hole at this point.  Again, I just don't see this lineup truly challenging.

 

I really see it as a 2 horse race between PSU and Iowa.  The key for Iowa to contend is not taking a bunch of 7th/8ths.  Those guys need to be wrestling on the championship mats on Friday night.  On top of that, they need Verkleeren and Berge to stay semi-pedestrian and stay off the podium, along with whomever mans 184/197 not finishing higher than low AAs.  PSU is going to get their big points from Lee, Joseph, Hall and Cassar so it really comes down to what the supporting cast does to put them over the top.

Nice job putting this together.  I think Boo Lewellan for Oklahoma State at 157 is a possible AA.  That brings the Pokes a little closer to being a contender.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 5/30/2019 at 1:43 PM, MSU158 said:

Pretty certain I gave every credit to PSU that is possible.  Exactly half your lineup(125,149,157,184[depending on Rasheed) and 197) will likely be manned by 100% unproven guys at the DI level. But, just because they are PSU, I still said I would bet on PSU if forced to put money on the line.  I just forced myself to pick Iowa because I said they would win at least one with Lee and I think that this year is still likely better than next year.a

On the flipside, Iowa will have NINE guys that have finished R12 or higher with 7 of those having AA'd.  On top of that you have a 2x Champ(Lee), a 2x top 4(Kemerer),  a top 5(DeSanto)with a win over a Finalist, another top 5(Young) at 157 with the top 3 guys graduating and a 2x AA with 2 wins over Joseph and 3 wins over Wick.  Even Warner and Lugo are poised to move up with several top finishers graduating and both weights appearing to be relatively thin. 

Simply put, on a purely individual basis, how do you not pick Iowa?  But, I, even not being a PSU fan, have to admit that PSU has had such a great record reloading without missing a beat that I wouldn't bet against them.  On top of that getting Cassar back, which should have happened, is HUGE.  Without him, it would be really hard for them to win.

He's right, you are consistent in that every off season you line up a team against Penn State predicting the highest possible outcome for each wrestler and then argue how each result is possible, completely ignoring the law of averages. Your "purely individual basis" fails to take into account that teams never finish with everyone reaching their highest potential and that some will actually finish at the low end of their potential. In this case, it's unrealistic to think that every single guy in Iowa's lineup will be an All American. A few of those "AA Caliber" wrestlers won't AA and a few more will finish as low scoring AAs. Also, if history is any indication, they will have at least one starter out or adversely affected by injury. 

Edited by Flying-Tiger

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, Flying-Tiger said:

He's right, you are consistent in that every off season you line up a team against Penn State predicting the highest possible outcome for each wrestler and then argue how each result is possible, completely ignoring the law of averages. Your "purely individual basis" fails to take into account that teams never finish with everyone reaching their highest potential and that some will actually finish at the low end of their potential. In this case, it's unrealistic to think that every single guy in Iowa's lineup will be an All American. A few of those "AA Caliber" wrestlers won't AA and a few more will finish as low scoring AAs. Also, if history is any indication, they will have at least one starter out or adversely affected by injury. 

Are you serious?  I STILL said I couldn't bet against PSU when they have SO MANY unknows against a team with 7 returning AA's and 2 R12's.  Should I just automatically say Iowa will underperform and PSU will just win it again with new guys because they are PSU? Should I just pick a guy to be injured???

Also, I DID NOT calculate them at their highest possible outcome.  NOT EVEN CLOSE. I only called for 7 sure AA's.  Lee was the ONLY 1 and that is just because he took 1st BOTH times he has wrestled and I project him to MATCH what he as done.  Here is what is the HIGHEST POSSIBLE:

125:  Lee scores 28+ points dominating the field.

133:  DeSanto wins it all.  Having a win over the NCAA Champ makes that COMPLETELY feasible.  Did I do that?

141:  Murin- With rumors that Yianni may redshirt, 4th is possible having beaten Moran.  Lee, Demas and McKee are the only others to show they are ahead of him excluding Eierman.  Did I do that?

149:  Lugo-This weight CLEARS OUT.  Being a Finalist is a reasonable prediction.  Did I do that?

157:  Young-This is another weight that really clears out.  Having controlled Deakin, another Finalist is possible.  Did I do that?

165:  Marinelli-I put a large range on this guy simply because he hasn't got it done in March.  Could he? Absolutely.  Did I flat out say Finalist only?

174:  Kemerer-He has taken 3rd and 4th at a very tough weight.  This guy is good.  High AA is safe to predict.  This one I STAND BY.

184:  Wilcke-This weight is WIDE OPEN and he was neck and neck with Dean.  Did I pick him as a Finalist?

197:  Warner-197 pretty much sucks actually.  If he doesn't AA it would be a HUGE underperformance.  Still, did I pick him high?

285:  Cass-Hell, I didn't even pencil him in as an AA at all.  His range as a freshman is to broad to pick as of now.

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, MSU158 said:

Are you serious?  I STILL said I couldn't bet against PSU when they have SO MANY unknows against a team with 7 returning AA's and 2 R12's.  Should I just automatically say Iowa will underperform and PSU will just win it again with new guys because they are PSU? 

Lol. You are doing what you always do. You say you can't pick against PSU, then you pick against PSU.

At least you are consistent. I'm sure no matter which of them wins you will claim to have been right. 

Just pick one or the other. No qualifying conditions. No waffling.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, Flying-Tiger said:

He's right, you are consistent in that every off season you line up a team against Penn State predicting the highest possible outcome for each wrestler and then argue how each result is possible, completely ignoring the law of averages. Your "purely individual basis" fails to take into account that teams never finish with everyone reaching their highest potential and that some will actually finish at the low end of their potential. In this case, it's unrealistic to think that every single guy in Iowa's lineup will be an All American. A few of those "AA Caliber" wrestlers won't AA and a few more will finish as low scoring AAs. Also, if history is any indication, they will have at least one starter out or adversely affected by injury. 

Didn't Penn State do it a couple years ago?

Like 17 champs and 4 high placers.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, TBar1977 said:

Lol. You are doing what you always do. You say you can't pick against PSU, then you pick against PSU.

At least you are consistent. I'm sure no matter which of them wins you will claim to have been right. 

Just pick one or the other. No qualifying conditions. No waffling.

Again, I PICKED Iowa and will stand by that.  The ONLY caveat was if I was forced to bet money.  PSU has won 8 out of 9, I would be a fool to bet against them.  That is COMPLETELY different than who I am picking.  But, keep up the inaccurate theme for your weak amusement........

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, chestcrusher said:

So Moran isn't going to take top 5 at Big Tens, but now he is top 5 at NCAAs lol 

Read again, buddy.  I didn't say that he was top 5.  I said a win over Moran could be viewed as enough with the current 141 landscape to pick Murin as high as top 4.  Did I actually pick Murin top 4?  Reading comprehension.................

Edited by MSU158

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
38 minutes ago, MSU158 said:

Again, I PICKED Iowa and will stand by that.  The ONLY caveat was if I was forced to bet money.  PSU has won 8 out of 9, I would be a fool to bet against them.  That is COMPLETELY different than who I am picking.  But, keep up the inaccurate theme for your weak amusement........

But that's a caveat. It doesn't matter if its the ONLY caveat, its still a caveat. Stop with the caveats and just stick with your pick. If forced to bet you should bet Iowa if indeed you truly believe that, which I am skeptical that you actually really believe it which is why and how PSU always becomes part of your hedging strategy. 

The reality is that deep down you actually believe that it will be PSU again, but you just can't bring yourself to accept it until there is no other sensible position. 

Edited by TBar1977

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, TBar1977 said:

But that's a caveat. It doesn't matter if its the ONLY caveat, its still a caveat. Stop with the caveats and just stick with your pick. If forced to bet you should bet Iowa if indeed you truly believe that, which I am skeptical that you actually really believe it which is why and how PSU always becomes part of your hedging strategy. 

The reality is that deep down you actually believe that it will be PSU again, but you just can't bring yourself to accept it until there is no other sensible position. 

Nope. It’s just common sense. I sure as hell didn’t pick the Patriots to win it last year. Especially after losing to the Lions. However, I have learned not to bet against them. 

It is the same with PSU.  At this point in time, I think Iowa is poised to win it and PSU has too many unknowns, so I am picking Iowa.  However, my confidence level isn’t high enough to bet on them.  

When a team has won 8 out of the last 9, you may pick against them, but a smart person doesn’t bet against them.  Since the Patriots have won the AFC East 10 years in a row, you don’t bet against them either. Simple common sense. 

However to be CLEAR for you my PICK is Iowa and NOT PSU. Hopefully they finally stay healthy and get me to the point where I would even consider betting on them come March. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
25 minutes ago, Boompa said:

I think it has less to do with PSU winning 8 out of 9 and more to do with Iowa blowing it.

In what year has Iowa blown it?  I don’t remember a year since 2010 that they were a favorite let alone a clear favorite.  Remind me again what year they clearly should have won going into the year or going into March for that matter?

Iowa doesn’t have the guaranteed firepower that Lee, Joseph, Hall and Cassar give PSU.  Those 4 scored 75 points combined last year. 

With Lee and Kemerer at the forefront, Iowa has the potential across their entire lineup to score enough, but PSU is still exceptionally formidable with high point scorers.   

For Iowa to win, they need everyone healthy and an 8 AA type production to get it done. It HAS to be a team effort. PSU can get away with 5 or 6 AA’s due to the top heavy points. 

 

But, keep on trolling Iowa. That is your calling. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
30 minutes ago, nhs67 said:

You fed the troll MSU.

Don't feed the troll.

When it feeds a point I like to make I don’t mind. Trolls actually can serve a purpose if they aren’t mindless troll jobs. His was good enough to let me a make a salient point. 

Edited by MSU158

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, dwkeller said:

Boys - bored heading into Summer?

On a PSU note - Berge looked very strong in Freestyle this past WE

Yeah he did. He'd have given Massa all he could handle had he shown up.

I was actually hoping to see Pantaleo up at 74 too just to test the waters for next year. I don't see him being able to make 65 ever again. He looked worse than death when he made 149 earlier this year.

If Berge can look like that come collegiate season, he will AA. No doubt.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Berge looked great, no doubt. But, I stopped gauging success from this tournament after Gary Wayne Harding dominated one a few years ago. Especially when they didn’t really beat any College wrestler of note.  Who did he beat that makes you think he is a surefire AA?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This got deep really quick... if I had to lay real cash on it PSU Iowa... then depending on shirts Missouri Oklahoma state. then Cornell... ya I think Ohio state falls off the map

Edited by Sublime607

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, MSU158 said:

Berge looked great, no doubt. But, I stopped gauging success from this tournament after Gary Wayne Harding dominated one a few years ago. Especially when they didn’t really beat any College wrestler of note.  Who did he beat that makes you think he is a surefire AA?

Please don't use a North Carolina wrestler to prove a point. They had all 24 hours out of the day to wrestle when all they had to do was log in for classes 

Edited by Sublime607

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Sublime607 said:

Please don't use a North Carolina wrestler to prove a point. They had all 24 hours out if the day to wrestle when all they had to do was log in for classes 

If it helps you, he was an OkState wrestler at the time!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...