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rpm002

Calling my shot: Graff over Colon

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I'm pretty surprised the Flo guys and 80% of pickers in the final X pool are taking Colon over Graff.  Personally, I think Graff is quite likely to win this matchup.  Here's why:

First, here is the history of Colon vs Graff:

They met 3 times in their senior years in college.  Colon won 6-0 in a dual at UNI, Colon won 6-3 in the Midlands semifinals, and Graff won 6-4 in the NCAA semifinal.  Then they met in 2017 in the Dave Schultz semifinals, where Graff won 11-0.  In both folkstyle matches Colon won, he turned Graff from the top position twice and also got a riding time point.  In the NCAA semi, Colon got 2 escapes and 2 stall points from the top position.  And obviously in the freestyle matchup, Colon didn't score. There's two big things to note.  First the trendline is clearly in Graff's favor.... he's done better against Colon each time.  But even more critically:  Colon has 0 career takedowns vs. Graff in their 4 matchups (vs 5 for Graff)!  

Now let's go to the tape from their 1 freestyle match-up:  

 

Graff gets 2 takedowns, one at the 3:06 mark and one at the 4:45 mark of the video.  They are very similar and classic Graff single-leg attacks where he gets the leg, but keeps his body away and to Colon's side.  This is the best way to attack Colon  If you get between his legs (as Nico often does and Graff did at the 2:07 mark of this video, without success) or go for double legs (like Garrett often does), you leave yourself vulnerable to Colon's world-class chest wrap.  But swing singles are what Graff does and that is the best possible type of attack to have in your arsenal vs. Colon.

Obviously if Colon does somehow get on top, his gut wrench is very dangerous.   But Graff's par terre is quite good as well and given the history between the two, he is the more likely to get a chance to use it.  

The Flo guys haven't really gone into much detail but seem to be picking Colon with confidence because "Graff is inconsistent".  But in the time since getting teched by Graff above, Colon has losses to Wright, Kindig, Brewer (by tech), Garrett twice (the 2nd being a tech in the first 90 seconds), and Suriano.  So I don't really see one guy as  much more consistent than the other.  Both have had their share of big wins and tough losses.

The bottom line is the way to beat Colon is to clear ties to stay out of trouble (avoid double unders), don't take bad shots that Colon will counter,  but instead selectively choose your spots to take single leg attacks.  Graff did this previously and his SKWC counterpart Suriano just did it against Colon as well.  Styles make fights and I think this Graff's style matches up very well and with Colon and he will prevail and advance to Worlds.

 

 

Edited by rpm002

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I've been a Graf fan for many years and have expected him to win the NCAA (he didn't) and take the national freestyle spot at 57 (he didn't) in the past.  Colon looked very marginal against Suriano (well, what to make of an exhibition bout?)--you might be onto something.  We'll see shortly...

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This might be the best match to look at to understand Colon's strengths and weaknesses.  Brewer wins 20-10;  he scores a variety of different ways, but note where Colon's points come from.  All 10 are on counters.  2 times in the match, Brewer shoots double leg attacks....  on both, Colon counters with his chest wrap and turns the situation into 4 for himself.  Colon also is able to fight from off his butt to flip Brewer and expose him after being taken down.  

Note that Brewer is able to get 4 takedowns off of single leg attacks, including 3 in the second period (after he seems to have figured out what will/won't be effective vs. Colon).  

 

 

Edited by rpm002

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Well I have thought for quite some time that Graff should be at 61, and not at 57. Now that he has been at 61 for a while now, we see him being pretty successful. As far as Tyler vs Joe, I really don't know how it'll play out. But I am hopeful that we get to see some tremendous matches between the two. Maybe as good as the Yianni Zain matches. 

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 Graff is a bad match-up for Colon.  Not sure why.  Probably due to the previous reason mentioned.  What I do remember is that Graff loses to guys who Colon beats, but Colon loses to Graff.  I would bet exactly  $0 on this matchup.  Colon wins big matches when it matters, but Graff wins when it's Colon.  For team USA im pulling for Colon. I think his defense and top game matches better to a variety of styles while I think Graff can dominate some styles but get beat by others.  As I have expressed in other places my personal belief is that consistency and balance fairs better at world medals than high peaks and low valleys ( so to speak). High peaks get you gold. Low valleys go 0-1. Consistentcy gets you bronze... Which is want we need at this weight. 

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1 hour ago, scramble said:

 What I do remember is that Graff loses to guys who Colon beats

Nah, I think this goes both ways.  Examples in freestyle that might support your point are Megaludis (although Graff did just beat him) and Escobedo (who beat Graff at WTT in 2015, but Colon beat him that same year).  But honestly, I can think there are more examples the other way.... Graff beat Simmons both times they wrestled, Colon never beat him.  Graff beat Brewer 4 times (including 2 techs and 1 pin), but Brewer teched Colon.  Graff beat Kindig in 2016, but Kindig beat Colon in 2017.  Graff beat Wright in their only meeting, but Wright beat Colon in 2017.

Edited by rpm002

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I like both if these guys because of their grit and sticktuitiveness. It seems like Graff has been plugging away forever to get his shot, and Colon just seems to keep grinding and getting it done at the times he has too.  I'm looking forward to this one.  Neither are "superstars" just talented dudes who remind me of the good old blue collar workers. 

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Yeah strong argument and you're probably right.
No disrespect at all but are you just a big fan of Graff or love this weight in general.

I think most people kind of brush this one and 70kg to the side, but obviously it's at the forefront for you. Any great story behind your love of the weight? Former training partner? World Rep? Graff himself?

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Nothing nearly as exciting as your suggestions.  "Training partner" made me LOL considering my wrestling experience is significantly lower than just about anyone else on this board.  My experience is more in creating sports contests. :) 

I'm just a big Wisconsin Badger fan who, through the family I married into (my bro-in-law was a smaller school IL state champion), was introduced to wrestling around the time Graff and that group (Ramos, Colon, Brewer, etc) were entering college and really found it fascinating.  Always did really enjoy watching Graff wrestle.... from the interviews, etc. I've seen with him, he seems like a really great guy too.  Continued following that cohort in freestyle (which I personally like even better).  Think I could hardly have picked a more interesting group to follow (which is why I have continued to stick with them all these years). 

Edited by rpm002

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Nothing nearly as exciting as your suggestions.  "Training partner" made me LOL considering my wrestling experience is significantly lower than just about anyone else on this board.  My experience is more in creating sports contests. :) 
I'm just a big Wisconsin Badger fan who, through the family I married into (my bro-in-law was a smaller school IL state champion), was introduced to wrestling around the time Graff and that group (Ramos, Colon, Brewer, etc) were entering college and really found it fascinating.  Continued following that cohort in freestyle (which I personally like even better).  Think I could hardly have picked a more interesting group to follow (which is why I have continued to stick with them all these years). 
That's cool man, always cool when people become fans through just random chance.
My ex wife was from a town without wrestling anywhere within 70miles. A lot of wealthy guys there donate to Oklahoma State football, just by chance one of the wealthiest was up on campus touring facilities and walked in on a wrestling practice... A few years laterx having no idea I'd wrestled more than half my life, he started explaining how cool wrestling was, how tough the guys were, how he knew Smith and Espo, blah blah blah, he had become a donor to the program and flew to NCAAs ever year for the 6 or 7 years he'd been exposed to it. He wanted to build programs in his area (not sure if he ever got that ball rolling) but I thought it was neat.

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