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57kg, 65kg - One Month from Now - USA Chances of Medalling

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19th August today - in exactly one month on 19th Sept we will have 57kg and 65kg prelims and semis and on 20th Sept Finals. Let's discuss the USA rep chances of medalling.

57kg - Daton Fix

65kg - TBD between Yianni and Zain. My pick Yianni.

 

57kg - I think Daton will medal. Considering his style and his international experience in Juniors and Cadets will help him to deal with the likes of Uguev, Atli, Sanayev. With the help of draw, he could make into finals. I am not sure when is the last time USA won a gold in 57kg, Henry Cejudo 55kg gold in beijing Olympics? In last 10 years, i think Thomas Gillman's Silver is the best performance in world championships. Can Fix break this? I think so..he has chances of winning gold, in worst case he will get Bronze.

65kg - I am assuming its Yianni as US rep here. In last 10-15 years, i doubt if USA ever medalled in 65/66kg category? I think Yianni can fill this long drought. I think he gets a bronze considering the deep and tough competition in this weight category

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I too think it will be Yianni at 65, but I don't think either medal.  They are both very very good, but there are levels to this around the world.  I believe our best shot is at 57, but wouldn't be surprised if neither medaled.  Really hope I'm wrong.

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Well, I think Fix has a good shot at a medal, I mean he beat Gilman, and Gilman was a Silver medalist, and I believe could've gotten a Bronze last year had he stayed on the offense more. So I like Fix's chances. As far as the Yianni Zain match, Yianni has come off two impressive tourneys and I have no clue about how Zain is progressing with his injury and how that may be impacting his training, but hopefully he's 100% and ready to go. But getting back to the topic at hand, I think with the way things have been going, between the two of them, I think we see Yianni prevail, and make the team. At the World's, I think Yianni also has a pretty decent shot at a medal, (we have to break through at some point in this weight class). But like anything, it will depend on how they are feeling up to and the day(s) of competition. And as for most of the time, I think the draw they get will impact things. However, if we see both Fix and Yianni make deep runs into the Semi's, I would think that their chances of medaling would be greatly increased. 

In the event that Zain prevails over Yianni, I think Zain also has the potential to medal as well. 

Edited by de4856
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I’m not confident Fix medals. The field is stacked. Fix also tends to take losses when he goes to the next level. He then adjusts and figure it out. 

He could do it, but he isn’t favored to this year. 

65kg is also stacked. Yianni has a chance at medaling. Zain doesn’t really. It’s a styles thing. Zain may beat Yianni, but Zain is easy to gameplan for (easy is relative - I mean by the best in the world). 

There are 3 world golds at this weight (Otoguro, Aliev, and Georgia), at least 2 world silvers (Bajrang, Ramonov), and then you have guys like Tobier (or is Bonne going?) and Musakaev who could absolutely medal  

Beyond that Kazakhstan, Mongolia, and Bahrain have solid guys.

North Korea could send a good rep

basically there are 5 hammers at the weight and a strong supporting staff. I wouldn’t be confident in a medal unless we were Japan, AZE or Russia. I honestly might pick Ramonov to win it  

 

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I think Uguev is the best at 57, despite losing at the European Games and taking bronze.  Fix is a good bet for bronze.  

 

Yianni has a better chance of gaining a medal than Zain imo.  I don't think Zain can beat Otoguro/Rashidov/Aliyev/maybe even Punia.  But Yianni can, he has a high pace and won't break.  

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1 hour ago, sidakova4991 said:

 

Yianni has a better chance of gaining a medal than Zain imo. 

I agree, as do most. The best of Yianni is effective against everyone. The best of Zain hasn't always translated against the best.

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On 8/20/2019 at 6:28 PM, smitty11 said:

Micic at 57 has been pretty good. He was hurt at NCAA last year. 57 is tough

He also beat Fix in two straight to make the Junior World team a few years ago.  After losing early to the Indian kid, he came back to take bronze.

Was beating up on the Indian kid as well, then suddenly gave up two or three takedowns, and maybe a turn, with a minute left, before losing 12-8.

Micic can absolutely medal, as, I believe, can Fix.

I'm not betting on either Yianni or Zain to medal at 65, but would love to be proved wrong.  When you're often eliminated after a single loss, the opportunity to make adjustments isn't there, and unless all the unseeded hammers are in the other bracket, either winning a medal will likely require a lot of luck.  I'm still shocked Molinaro even wrestled for bronze at the weight in Rio.

I do think both Zain and Yianni are almost certainly as good relative to the competition as he was in '16, and probably better, but the weight seems deeper now.

Edited by whaletail
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13 minutes ago, whaletail said:

He also beat Fix in two straight to make the Junior World team a few years ago.  After losing early to the Indian kid, he came back to take bronze.

Was beating up on the Indian kid as well, then suddenly gave up two or three takedowns, and maybe a turn, with a minute left, before losing 12-8.

Micic can absolutely medal, as, I believe, can Fix.

I'm not betting on either Yianni or Zain to medal at 65, but would love to be proved wrong.  When you're often eliminated after a single loss, the opportunity to make adjustments isn't there, and unless all the unseeded hammers are in the other bracket, either winning a medal will likely require a lot of luck.  I'm still shocked Molinaro even wrestled for bronze at the weight in Rio.

I do think both Zain and Yianni are almost certainly as good relative to the competition as he was in '16, and probably better, but the weight seems deeper now.

This year’s world title may be tougher to win than next year’s Olympic title. 

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25 minutes ago, Lurker said:

This year’s world title may be tougher to win than next year’s Olympic title. 

Why would that be?

Won't everyone at 65 be back (as almost nobody retires the year before an Olympics), plus a number of this year's 70 and 61 kg wrestlers? 

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11 hours ago, whaletail said:

Why would that be?

Won't everyone at 65 be back (as almost nobody retires the year before an Olympics), plus a number of this year's 70 and 61 kg wrestlers? 

Just going by there will be less number of total athletes. In a weight with so much depth and parity, there’s going to be some otherwise landmines not competing in Tokyo. 

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1 hour ago, Lurker said:

Just going by there will be less number of total athletes. In a weight with so much depth and parity, there’s going to be some otherwise landmines not competing in Tokyo. 

I forgot that Olympic brackets are smaller, and each weight is a one day tourney.

Travel all the way to Tokyo, and if it's scheduled like Rio, wait two weeks to potentially wrestle a single match.  Get caught in a lace, or gut, and you might wrestle for all of 30s.

I really wish they still used the pool play format.

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4 hours ago, whaletail said:

I forgot that Olympic brackets are smaller, and each weight is a one day tourney.

Travel all the way to Tokyo, and if it's scheduled like Rio, wait two weeks to potentially wrestle a single match.  Get caught in a lace, or gut, and you might wrestle for all of 30s.

I really wish they still used the pool play format.

Slight correction, each weight is wrestled over two days in Tokyo:

https://tonyrotundo.smugmug.com/WRESTLERS-ARE-WARRIORS/Olympics/2020-Olympics/Wrestling-Schedule

 

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On 8/23/2019 at 5:03 PM, whaletail said:

I forgot that Olympic brackets are smaller, and each weight is a one day tourney.

Travel all the way to Tokyo, and if it's scheduled like Rio, wait two weeks to potentially wrestle a single match.  Get caught in a lace, or gut, and you might wrestle for all of 30s.

I really wish they still used the pool play format.

Imagine the nerves too. It is way more pressure than anything any of these athletes have experienced too.  

I like certain guys in that position. Guys like JB thrive under that pressure (I know...but he didn’t fall apart vs Gedoev. That only happened after he lost. Gedoev’s defense is just insane)

I think Yianni handles pressure well. Spencer Lee too. Snyder looks way better under the lights than in random tournaments. Dake is another one. 

Mildly concerned about Fix if he makes the team. He does well, but also tightens up a bit and at 57kg you can’t rely on just being stingy. 

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