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Jimmy Cinnabon

Yianni-Zain: Who is favored in the wrestleoff?

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If Zain is 100% then he's a slight favorite because he has to only win 1 of 2.

If he's anything less than 100% then Yianni is a mortal lock. If anything hurts or isn't 100%,  against a top guy you may as well be at 25 percent. You can't win either way. 

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31 minutes ago, TBar1977 said:

If Zain is 100% then he's a slight favorite because he has to only win 1 of 2.

So you are saying that each is equally likely to win either match.  And whoever wins the first match is less likely to win the second match, why?

Edited by klehner

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31 minutes ago, Jimmy Cinnabon said:

Have there been any updates on Zain's condition?  Any reason to believe he won't be 100% healthy?

Cael is not exactly the type to do a press conference on the state of his athletes, so all we know is the date is 9/2. That's not exactly "soon" given the proximity to Worlds. I can't imagine Yianni's camp pushed for that date, so there must be a reason why later was better than sooner for Zain. 

Injury or no injury, I'm with Frank Rizzo. 

Edited by wrestlingnerd

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50 minutes ago, klehner said:

So you are saying that each is equally likely to win either match.  And whoever wins the first match is less likely to win the second match, why?

This isn't complicated. Zain has to win 1 match to win the series. Yianni has to win 2 consecutive times to win the series. Winning 2 in a row is harder than winning 1 in a row. This holds true even if you believe Yianni is a 2 to 1 favorite in each single match. It would still be less likely he'd win 2 consecutive than 1 consecutive. 

The only way winning 2 consecutive is equally likely as winning 1 consecutive is if Yianni has a 100 percent chance of winning each single match. 

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19 minutes ago, TBar1977 said:

This isn't complicated. Zain has to win 1 match to win the series. Yianni has to win 2 consecutive times to win the series. Winning 2 in a row is harder than winning 1 in a row. This holds true even if you believe Yianni is a 2 to 1 favorite in each single match. It would still be less likely he'd win 2 consecutive than 1 consecutive. 

The only way winning 2 consecutive is equally likely as winning 1 consecutive is if Yianni has a 100 percent chance of winning each single match. 

Do you agree that the outcome of each match is an independent event?

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1 minute ago, klehner said:

Do you agree that the outcome of each match is an independent event?

If Y is a 2-1 favorite he would expect to win either 2/3 of the time. But to win both the odds would be 4/9 assuming odds stayed the same (independent events).

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Yianni's break even point is about 70%. If he is above 70% likely to win a single match, that's the threshold necessary to become more likely than not to win two in a row. Winning the first match is a huge advantage in a best of three series. That said, even at 71% likely to win a single match, he's still just over 50% likely to win the series. If you think Yianni will prevail, you have to believe he is a heavy favorite in each match, because even at 70%, that makes it a coin flip whether or not he wins the spot.

This assumes that each match is independent. 

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I expect both have some issues injury wise.  Just hope neither has it to the point that it really degrades them.  

FLO said Cornell wanted it very quickly.  They didn’t get it that way.  Said they USAW pushed it back as far as they could and not interfere with paperwork and logistics for the trip over and registration.

If Zain is more than just a bit injured, at this point it makes sense to give him the available time to heal and get to better form.  

 

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This is all academic as the matches are not independent.  You get tired after wrestling a match.  You could also get injured.  You could also adjust your tactics based on the first match.  Since Yianni knows he must win match 1 he might press more or wrestle more rigidly.  If Yianni wins match 1 he could feel more confidence and wrestler looser in match 2.  Likewise if Zain loses match 1 he may press more knowing he must win match 2.

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1 hour ago, TBar1977 said:

This isn't complicated. Zain has to win 1 match to win the series. Yianni has to win 2 consecutive times to win the series. Winning 2 in a row is harder than winning 1 in a row. This holds true even if you believe Yianni is a 2 to 1 favorite in each single match. It would still be less likely he'd win 2 consecutive than 1 consecutive. 

The only way winning 2 consecutive is equally likely as winning 1 consecutive is if Yianni has a 100 percent chance of winning each single match. 

Cael:  I appreciate your loyalty but Yianni seems to have separated himself somewhat.  Each match is different but a favorite is a favorite, whether it’s match 1 or 2.

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Two little freaks battling it out.  Yianni with those blown up ears, XL arms with the gnarly elbows and walking all double jointed and Zain without an ounce of athletic ability but a maniacal will to win.   Coin flip.

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1 hour ago, Dr. Novak said:

Two little freaks battling it out.  Yianni with those blown up ears, XL arms with the gnarly elbows and walking all double jointed and Zain without an ounce of athletic ability but a maniacal will to win.   Coin flip.

All that negativity can't be good for your soul, Doctor.

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Two little freaks battling it out.  Yianni with those blown up ears, XL arms with the gnarly elbows and walking all double jointed and Zain without an ounce of athletic ability but a maniacal will to win.   Coin flip.


Zain reminds me a bit of Metcalf.

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2 hours ago, klehner said:

Do you agree that the outcome of each match is an independent event?

 

2 hours ago, gimpeltf said:

If Y is a 2-1 favorite he would expect to win either 2/3 of the time. But to win both the odds would be 4/9 assuming odds stayed the same (independent events).

 

klehner, read gimpeltf explanation. Fairly straightforward. 

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3 hours ago, headshuck said:

 


Zain reminds me a bit of Metcalf.

 

I think this is fair.  I also think Zain is, all things considered, better.  I think he would beat Metcalf.

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