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Peso

Reasonable goals for World Teams

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I expect our women to finish in the top 3, but can we get noticeably closer to Japan?  It's exploding here in the states, so I believe it's just a matter of time.  Our expectations should be very high for the entire program in these crucial years where we are seeing numbers and participation grow exponentially.

Men's Greco-Roman.  Is there any chance of a top 8 finish?  Maybe 3 medals?  Can Adam medal again?  Inch by inch, but keep moving the right direction please.

Men's Freestyle:  Can we hold off Iran for 2nd place?  Taylor missing is pretty big in the team race.  I felt like we had one of our strongest teams last year, and lost by nearly 30 to the Russians.  If we close the gap at all, that will mean a lot of things go right.  No one has admired the USSR and now Russia teams more than I do.  It is great to have excellence right before our eyes like that,  but it's a dirty rotten shame we have to reduce our men's freestyle down to 6 weights.  Just sours my attitude to have to swallow that **** sandwich.  In my little fantasy, it is setting up to be an epic battle with us and Russia for the win in Tokyo.   It's extremely tough to beat them...ever, but the odds are getting better.  A good tourney this month and it will feel like the momentum is still going our way.  To me, even though our chances of winning the team race, are slim, we can build a lot of momentum into a once in a generation Olympic battle next year.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by Peso

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Women’s - 2nd is going to be tough, but we have a huge amount of talent this year. I think 2 golds and 5 medals total is probably our best reasonable performance. Wish Helen was on the team. 

Greco - I think 2 medals would be a victory. We could get up to 4 I think. There is a reasonable chance at 0 though. 

Freestyle - the only guy that doesn’t have much of a chance is Downey. Downey is in a wight with 8 guys who are all serious medal contenders. Usually a draw would matter but with this many high level guys, he can’t just get a lucky draw. Our other two weakest weights are 61 and 70, both extremely depleted. Green may even win gold. I think Snyder, JB, Jden, Dake, and Gwiz are all extremely likely to medal. That means we just need 1 of Fix, Yianni/Zain, Graff and Green to medal to secure 2nd. This assumes that we get at least 2 gold, if not more. Point system heavily weighs golds, as it should. 

Russia is likely to score 170ish in my opinion. We would need things like Fix over Uguev, green over Baev and JB over Sidakov to happen. Not totally unreasonable, but fairly unlikely. 

USA I think will score 130, and that assumes 7 medals. 

There isn’t another team that I think will catch us though. Japan is extremely strong in 3-4 weights. They aren’t deep enough. Azerbaijan is solid but their best guy is wrestling in an extremely deep weight. Iran might only end up with 2-3 medals. Georgia has a few gold threats but then is fairly weak. They could sneak into 3rd with a bunch of 5th place finishers. Maybe I’m forgetting a team?

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Mens freestyle I believe 7 is being too generous.  So many intangibles such as an off match, officiating, and pairing lends itself to too much uncertainty.  The US men will win 5 or 6 medals and only 1 gold, possibly zero.  Dake is the more likely gold winner as long as he is healthy.  Burroughs is a good shot at finals but has lost a step or three.  Snyder had been solved by Sadulaev. Gwiz is a sold bronze maybe silver.  J'Den Cox has gold in him again but is beatable.  I really hope to be wrong.

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I see our Men’s FS as a lock for second. Simply no way we are catching Russia this year. Iran doesn’t have the depth across the board to catch us. 

While I dislike the 6 weight classes next year too, it will benefit our team chances of beating Russia (unofficial scoring of course). We don’t have their depth, but our very top guys are as good as theirs. 

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Men's freestyle I believe 7 is being too generous.  So many intangibles such as an off match, officiating, and pairing lends itself to too much uncertainty.  The US men will win 5 or 6 medals and only 1 gold, possibly zero.  Dake is the more likely gold winner as long as he is healthy.  Burroughs is a good shot at finals but has lost a step or three.  Snyder had been solved by Sadulaev. Gwiz is a sold bronze maybe silver.  J'Den Cox has gold in him again but is beatable.  I really hope to be wrong.

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I doubt we can beat Russia without Taylor, but I don't think we will be as fat off as could be.  In fact I think the difference could be Taylor.  I know we were very solid last year but I think we slipped on a banana peel costing us. 

I think I'm in the minority that doesn't think JB has lost as much as often stated.  I think he has just had more distractions and more to manage with his young ones coming into the world and learning to navigate that part of his life.  He seems to have wrestled more this year and seems up a beat from the last couple years. 

I also don't think the Snyder-Sad match left much to take away.   Sad may win all the rest, but I don't think that is the case.  Now If Sad would have had 5 takedowns, then maybe.  There just wasn't enough wrestling though to know last time around. 

So... I think we have to high chances for gold in Daked and Cox.  I think Snyder and JB are as capable as anyone for gold.  It's the worlds.  I don't think they are a big favorite or a big underdog. 

Gwiz I think is a bronze.

Yianni and Zain are both capable.  Yianni is tricky and harder to figure out so may be able to pull more rabbits out of hats, but I see either medaliing.  

Graff could go 0-1 but he is also good enough to create thunder and catch lightning in a bottle.  He has the skill.  I don't think he has to rely on draw or breaks.  It is truly in his hands. He is good enough.  He will execute or he won't.  It won't much matter the draw in my opinion. 

I think Fix medals. 

I think Geen goes 0-1.  I think he has a high ceiling and can get gold.  The problem is he is just way to inconsistent. 

Downey: I'm happy for the guy.  Making the world team is great for a person.  He just isn't at that level yet.  It would take everything going right for him and going wrong for a bunch of others.  But it has happen before i guess. 

In the end, I think we take 3 gold's and at least 4 other medals.  While I do think we will finish second we will be I'm control if we beat Russia or not.  We are going to see them a lot in the semi's and finals I think.  The head to heads will decide it all.  

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For MFS, I expect Dake and Cox to both get gold, and I think JB does as well although a silver or bronze may be more likely for him. Snyder is most likely silver. As others have stated, Downey is the only one that would be a big time upset to medal. The rest are all on the bubble. I would predict two or three of them medal, but it could be zero. I would guess Gwiz, Fix, and Yianni/Zain could pick up a bronze giving us 7 medals.

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Well I am hopeful that every member of our 3 squads has a great tourney. I think our ladies will do pretty well, not sure that they will challenge Japan though, but hopefully we can win the head to head match ups and make it close. I think though we may see some of our ladies breakout and become the new stars of WFS. 

Greco: well let's hope Coon can repeat, and hopefully Hancock and some others can break through. But even if Coon is the only guy to medal, that is still something. 

Men's Freestyle: 

Fix, I believe is pretty solid, I think he medals, maybe a Silver

Graff, not really sure, he's had a history of ups and downs, and hopefully this tourney is an up. But I think he's probably a 2 and 2 maybe a Bronze or a fifth. 

Yianni or Zain, I don't know who will win the wrestle off, but if it's Yianni and he wrestles like he has been, I think he will medal, and maybe even get in the finals. If it's Zain, I do think he's capable of medaling, I just think it will be more of an arduous journey for him. 

Green, well, let's just hope for the best. 

JB, well I was very surprised that IMar gave him all he wanted and then some, so I am not sure if that was an outlier or not. But JB is a crafty old veteran who knows how to win, and I think he still has one more in him. However, I am not sure what all this will mean, we could see JB on top of the podium or on the sides of it. But I am certain he will medal. 

Dake, if he's on top of his game, I believe we see him repeat, worst case a Silver. 

PD3, well it would be great if he medaled, but I think we see him go 2 and 2, maybe a Bronze, or a 5th. PD3, is like a dangerous boxer with a knockout punch, so who knows maybe he can catch a few people. 

J'den, I think we see him continue his current success, and I look to see him in the finals, worse case a Silver. 

SnyderMan, I think we see him get back to the finals, after his Silver at last year's World's he went to the Yarygin and got behind and couldn't overcome the deficit. But since then he's won three international tourneys in a row, but even so what concerns me is how some of his matches have gone, although his gut wrench has improved, some of his matches seem to not have the same offensive rate. I am hopeful that this doesn't impact him at the World's. But like JB, Capt. America knows how to win, and has the gas tank to wear even the Sadulaev's of the world down, so if SyderMan makes it back to the finals, I am hopeful that he can prevail. 

Gwizz, I think he gets a Bronze, maybe a Silver. As good as Gwizz is, I just don't see him winning a Gold, but maybe he reads this and goes out and wins the whole thing just to make me look silly. 

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26 minutes ago, Plasmodium said:

What is the reasoning with putting JB in the same bucket as Fix and Yianni?  I think JB looks great.

I hesitated before doing that myself, but he’s aged another year and his weight class is very deep imo. 65 is of course deep too, but Yianni is only getting better right now. I would say chances to medal JB > Yianni = Fix, but not by much.

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my thoughts on this - I posted this few weeks ago on another thread

57: Daton Fix - Best Case: Gold, Worst Case: Bronze

I think Fix will start his Sr. level Worlds with a medal. I am hoping he would atleast get a bronze.  With the help of draw and good day, he could win Gold.


61: Tyler Graff - Best Case: Bronze, Worst Case: DNP

Mostly he may not medal. But if lucky, he will get a Bronze.


65: Zain - Best Case: DNP, Worst Case: DNP, 65: Yianni - Best Case: Silver  Worst Case: Bronze.

I think Yianni will be the rep. He will medal.  After that match - where he almost on the verge of getting tech-falled by Musukaev - Yianni must have realized how vulnerable he is and I am hoping he would do required corrections.


70: James Green - Best Case: Bronze, Worst Case: DNP

I agree Green is not in good shape, but except few (Baev, Baitrov, Iakobashvili) competition is not that great. I think he will get a bronze


74: Jordan Burroughs -  Best Case: Bronze, Worst Case: DNP

I agree with @AZ_wrestling age is the key factor. Although JB had great run so far (compared to his form prior to last  year worlds) in 2019, Sidakov going to be the key factor and they are going to meet in Semis, if he loses (which i think imo), he will settle for a Bronze.  But, he might be out before reaching Semis, remember his first match in Paris Worlds 2017, he almost lost to Ali Shabanau (BLR) and last year close match with IRI as well.


79: Kyle Dake -  Best Case: Gold, Worst Case: Silver

Dake will win GOLD. Gadzi is not RUS team and I doubt how much Nabiev can stop Dake from GOLD.


86: Pat Downey -  Best Case: DNP, Worst Case: DNP

No Comment (understood)


92: J'den Cox - Best Case: Gold, Worst Case: Silver

Cox will win GOLD. I like his attitude a lot. If anyone missed watching recent Flo (Bader) interview with Cox, he talks more philosophical like, being on  world team is more than just representing US, but representing humanity and what not, like, its not just about winning GOLD, but its about reaching/achieving his best.


97: Kyle Snyder- Best Case: Silver, Worst Case: Bronze

Everyone knows Sadulaev is the biggest hurdle in between Snyder and GOLD.  Watch out for Aliaksandr Hushtyn (BLR)

 

125: Nick Gwiazdowski - . Best Case: Bronze, Worst Case: DNP

Last year was the best chance for Gwiz to be finals, still scratching my head how he lost to CHN. He will get a Bronze again this year.

Edited by freestyle_fan

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Some of you guys are overestimating Downey. He is not even top 10 in the field. He has virtually no shot at medaling. The weight is far too good this year. 

If Downey scores 5th place points that would be absolutely amazing and theoretically we could beat Russia. It isn’t going to happen though 

Edited by Housebuye

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Fix - Bronze/Silver 

Graff - 0-1 

Yianni - 5th/Bronze/ Silver or Zain 0-1/1-1

tough weight. 

Green - 0-1/ 5th 

JB - Gold/ Bronze Of he beats the Russia in the semis he gets gold, if not Bronze 

Dake - Gold 

Downey - 0-1 Tough weight and not our best option. 

Cox - Gold 

Snyder - Gold/ Silver 

Gwiz - Silver/ Bronze 

 

I could see 7 medals with 3 or 4 golds but it is tough and a bad draw could drop that. 

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