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Jimmy Cinnabon

Cornell - NCAA team title, why not?

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11 hours ago, hammerlockthree said:

it would be great if you would base your predictions on their current team and not previous teams with pre-determined results. 

I didn't make a prediction. I made a short observation.  Here's a longer version. 

The current team is top heavy.  Four AAs in 2019. One leaving to play football at another school.  One great former AA with a serious injury history. 

It will be very difficult for a top heavy team to be the national champion.  Particularly these days with high winning team scores.

I provided the most obvious example of a top heavy team (one that I doubt this team will match with three champs). That team didn't come close to being first.

That team happens to be the same school that is the subject of the post.  It also happens to be the one top ten school that has no scholarships and which has the toughest admissions standards, which are factors, probably the key factors, in their having a hard time matching the current big four in depth -- and thus in the kind of team point scoring ability necessary to reach the goal that is the topic of the post. Same conclusion:  That goal will be a severe uphill climb due to depth.  

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48 minutes ago, drag it said:

I didn't make a prediction. I made a short observation.  Here's a longer version. 

The current team is top heavy.  Four AAs in 2019. One leaving to play football at another school.  One great former AA with a serious injury history. 

It will be very difficult for a top heavy team to be the national champion.  Particularly these days with high winning team scores.

I provided the most obvious example of a top heavy team (one that I doubt this team will match with three champs). That team didn't come close to being first.

That team happens to be the same school that is the subject of the post.  It also happens to be the one top ten school that has no scholarships and which has the toughest admissions standards, which are factors, probably the key factors, in their having a hard time matching the current big four in depth -- and thus in the kind of team point scoring ability necessary to reach the goal that is the topic of the post. Same conclusion:  That goal will be a severe uphill climb due to depth.  

This is accurate, but they improve at 197, where an AA  left to play football.   They do need help from the rest of the lineup however.

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7 hours ago, drag it said:

I didn't make a prediction. I made a short observation.  Here's a longer version. 

The current team is top heavy.  Four AAs in 2019. One leaving to play football at another school.  One great former AA with a serious injury history. 

It will be very difficult for a top heavy team to be the national champion.  Particularly these days with high winning team scores.

I provided the most obvious example of a top heavy team (one that I doubt this team will match with three champs). That team didn't come close to being first.

That team happens to be the same school that is the subject of the post.  It also happens to be the one top ten school that has no scholarships and which has the toughest admissions standards, which are factors, probably the key factors, in their having a hard time matching the current big four in depth -- and thus in the kind of team point scoring ability necessary to reach the goal that is the topic of the post. Same conclusion:  That goal will be a severe uphill climb due to depth.  

What you seem to be missing is that besides the "top heavy" four that you are talking about Cornell is going to be fitting in some very highly rated recruits into their lineup.  These recruits include A Merola,  J. Rameriz, J Cardenas, L Fernandes, C Foca, M Reinche, C Yapoujian, P Moomey, J saunders, G Diakamaholis, C Handovic, E Hatcher, D Cedano, & some others.  This is a very impressive group from the 2019 & 2020 recruiting classes.  Cornell has a very good track record of developing the talent they get.  There is no team that will be winning the 2021 and 2022 titles with just the guys they had on the roster last year.  They will all have to develop new guys to supplement the proven studs they will have coming back from last year.  I am of the opinion that Cornell with the 4 proven studs that should be around for 2021 & 2022 (knock on wood) and the high level of talent they have coming in they have a good shot at making a title run in those years.  Obviously it will be contingent on the 4 studs continuing to perform on an elite level and on getting a few of the new guys up to a level where they can score significant points at NCAAs.  PSU, Ohio St, Iowa, OSU and all the teams face the same challenge.  I believe Cornell is positioned as well as any to do it.

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2 hours ago, lu1979 said:

What you seem to be missing is that besides the "top heavy" four that you are talking about Cornell is going to be fitting in some very highly rated recruits into their lineup.  These recruits include A Merola,  J. Rameriz, J Cardenas, L Fernandes, C Foca, M Reinche, C Yapoujian, P Moomey, J saunders, G Diakamaholis, C Handovic, E Hatcher, D Cedano, & some others.  This is a very impressive group from the 2019 & 2020 recruiting classes.  Cornell has a very good track record of developing the talent they get.  There is no team that will be winning the 2021 and 2022 titles with just the guys they had on the roster last year.  They will all have to develop new guys to supplement the proven studs they will have coming back from last year.  I am of the opinion that Cornell with the 4 proven studs that should be around for 2021 & 2022 (knock on wood) and the high level of talent they have coming in they have a good shot at making a title run in those years.  Obviously it will be contingent on the 4 studs continuing to perform on an elite level and on getting a few of the new guys up to a level where they can score significant points at NCAAs.  PSU, Ohio St, Iowa, OSU and all the teams face the same challenge.  I believe Cornell is positioned as well as any to do it.

I don't dispute your well argued point that Cornell has great potential in 2021 and 2022, where, if a number of things go well, they could win team trophies and possibly even contend for a title.  But in my opinion to actually win is a steep uphill climb.

Iowa and Penn State start out with a lot more returning points for next year.  Not sure how the likely 2021 and 2022 returning points would shake out.  But the big four of PSU, tOSU, Iowa, OSU will keep reloading.  They have a huge advantage that Cornell doesn't have with scholarships and lower admissions standards.  

And a third and fourth advantage that these schools have that Cornell doesn't have, sometimes in combination, is transfers and sixth years.  These top teams are now  adding high AAs every year or two and turning low scoring weights into high scoring weights literally overnight. 

The average winning score the last eight years is 128.25.  Given the conditions described above, I think that's what Cornell would need to be in the neighborhood of to win the team race.  

With the returning wrestlers listed in the original post and the recruits listed in your post, Cornell essentially has to run the table to actually win the team championship.  That means that, for instance, of their four returning AAs, a guy who had a fractured vertebrae will have to stay healthy with 200 pound monsters pounding on him in a combat sport.

And, with respect to that guy (Darmstadt),  query whether he would be eligible in 2022 --his fifth year at Cornell; do Cornell and/or Ivy rules allow this?  I'm not saying that Darmstadt can't be a 2021 (or even depending on the rules a 2022) 25 point winner for Cornell.  Just opining that between his serious injury and the eligibility question, he is an example of the kind of thin margins that Cornell will have to navigate in having everything go right to be able to amass the points they'll probably need to come in first. 

It would be thrilling to watch an Ivy League school do it, but they'll be threading a needle.  

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Cornell would allow Darmstadt the time on the eligibility clock, but only if for academic reasoning. For example, they can defer away from the school for internships, time off, change majors, extend studies into different areas, etc. Koll has done a very good job managing this in the past. Some kids want to get through academics quickly and there have been example of some transferring like Honis. 

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8 hours ago, drag it said:

I don't dispute your well argued point that Cornell has great potential in 2021 and 2022, where, if a number of things go well, they could win team trophies and possibly even contend for a title.  But in my opinion to actually win is a steep uphill climb.

Iowa and Penn State start out with a lot more returning points for next year.  Not sure how the likely 2021 and 2022 returning points would shake out.  But the big four of PSU, tOSU, Iowa, OSU will keep reloading.  They have a huge advantage that Cornell doesn't have with scholarships and lower admissions standards.  

And a third and fourth advantage that these schools have that Cornell doesn't have, sometimes in combination, is transfers and sixth years.  These top teams are now  adding high AAs every year or two and turning low scoring weights into high scoring weights literally overnight. 

The average winning score the last eight years is 128.25.  Given the conditions described above, I think that's what Cornell would need to be in the neighborhood of to win the team race.  

With the returning wrestlers listed in the original post and the recruits listed in your post, Cornell essentially has to run the table to actually win the team championship.  That means that, for instance, of their four returning AAs, a guy who had a fractured vertebrae will have to stay healthy with 200 pound monsters pounding on him in a combat sport.

And, with respect to that guy (Darmstadt),  query whether he would be eligible in 2022 --his fifth year at Cornell; do Cornell and/or Ivy rules allow this?  I'm not saying that Darmstadt can't be a 2021 (or even depending on the rules a 2022) 25 point winner for Cornell.  Just opining that between his serious injury and the eligibility question, he is an example of the kind of thin margins that Cornell will have to navigate in having everything go right to be able to amass the points they'll probably need to come in first. 

It would be thrilling to watch an Ivy League school do it, but they'll be threading a needle.  

In answer to your question on Darmstadt's eligibility - His 1st season was 2017-18.  He missed last year due to injury. Cornell (& Ivy league rules) will allow him 3 more years of competition provided that he does not finish his undergrad degree prior to that.  Graduate students can't compete in the Ivy League as they can in most NCAA schools.  Usually the Ivy programs control this by taking some Fall semesters off.  Next year Jacob Cardenas is suppose to arrive at Cornell along with Max Dean coming back at 184.  They also have two freshman 197s (Loew & Fagen) starting this year who have good resumes. (They are going to be some tough battles for the starting spots. Foca is also arriving and depending on his growth he could be in that group too.

Edited by lu1979

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On 9/11/2019 at 12:52 PM, WRfan1 said:

This is accurate, but they improve at 197, where an AA  left to play football.   

man i hope this is true because we have a couple of freshmen with solid resumes but darmstadt is going down to 184 and while he may outdo last year's 184 there's not a lot of wiggle room.

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On 9/12/2019 at 7:04 AM, lu1979 said:

Graduate students can't compete in the Ivy League as they can in most NCAA schools.  Usually the Ivy programs control this by taking some Fall semesters off.

Lol! Euphemism.

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20 minutes ago, jon said:

Lol! Euphemism.

what's the euphemism? he said exactly how ivy schools keep students from exhausting their ivy eligibility while taking advantage of the looser ncaa eligibility rules that every other school gets to use.

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