Where the rubber meets the road: How many top 5/6's can we get for qualifying the 18 weights for the Olympics?

[maligned 529]

Nur-Sultan 2019 starts the qualification process for the Olympics. The past two Olympics we've had 14 (2016) and 17 (2012) of the 18 weights represented at the Olympics. We missed out on 2 weights in Greco and in women's freestyle the last cycle. This cycle there will be 3 less spots available from the World qualifying events. 

How many will we get through at Worlds and how many will we need to qualify through the Pan Am qualifier or the World last-chance qualifier?

My guess is we'll get 4 top 5's in men's freestyle. We're weak at 86 and 57, 65, and 125 are all going to be very competitive weights where top 5 will be considered a solid performance in all 3 cases, depending on draws. It's tough to think one of those latter 3 weights won't be tripped up by a difficult draw or slight underperformance.

In Greco, I'll be happy about 2 from Worlds and ecstatic about 3+. Hancock and Coon are certainly favorites to get to medal matches, but draws again will play a big part and neither of them will be clear favorites in matches they'll most likely need to win to get the spots. Anything beyond those two would be a very pleasant surprise.

In women's, I'll guess we'll get 3. Gray, Mensah, and Hildebrandt have a great shot and the other 3 are all capable, but none are guaranteed. Even Gray will be tough in her very loaded weight class. Hildebrandt, too, has seemed like the second best at her weight the past couple years, but it will be much deeper with girls moving up and down to get the Olympic spots. I'll guess we have one slip-up from those 3 and one surprise from the other 3 weights.

All told, I'll guess we get 9 of the 18 weights qualified at Worlds and have a good bit of work to do at Pan Am's in the spring. 

Edited September 6, 2019 by maligned

[mspart 270]

For men's FS, I think we have a good chance at 57, 65, 76, 97, and 125.   The last three based on past experience.  Fix and Retherford should do well.  PDIII is an outlier and probably won't make it but could. 

mspart

[maligned 529]

12 hours ago, mspart said:

For men's FS, I think we have a good chance at 57, 65, 76, 97, and 125.   The last three based on past experience.  Fix and Retherford should do well.  PDIII is an outlier and probably won't make it but could. 

mspart

I agree. I guessed that we'll get 4, but not because I don't think each of those weights has a good to great shot. I'd give us a 95% chance or better for 74 and 97, but the other 3 weights are somewhere in the 50% (65kg), 65% (57kg), 80% (125kg) range to get Top 5--meaning it's highly unlikely we'll qualify all 3 at the 2019 worlds. I agree of course that 86 has a very low chance. 

[Eagle26 598]

3 hours ago, maligned said:

I agree. I guessed that we'll get 4, but not because I don't think each of those weights has a good to great shot. I'd give us a 95% chance or better for 74 and 97, but the other 3 weights are somewhere in the 50% (65kg), 65% (57kg), 80% (125kg) range to get Top 5--meaning it's highly unlikely we'll qualify all 3 at the 2019 worlds. I agree of course that 86 has a very low chance. 

I think this is a pretty good analysis and I would say just about the same thing for the percentages.