6 Reasons 86kg Wasn't as Weak as You Think

[maligned 529]

People have suggested in other threads that 86kg is weak. I have a hard time wrapping my head around it, honestly; but my conclusion is that it's not nearly as weak as people think. Here's why: 

1. Though bigger than average, 86kg is a very "normal" size to have good athletes to choose from in many different nations--as evidenced by the fact that it tied with 65kg for having the most entrants of any weight.

2. There were 9 ex-medalists at 86kg--2 more than the much-revered 65kg crop and not including 2019 junior world champ Punia, Naifonov of Russia, Gostiyev of Azerbaijan, Torreblanca of Cuba, the US rep Downey, and long-time giant killer Ceballos of Venezuela. That's 15 deep AT LEAST having credentials that would mark them as genuine medal possibilities at any weight.

3. We're too caught up in the nation on the uniform. We think it's "weak" because Spain or Germany or Slovakia have a chance. Those are real guys with real credentials against top guys from around the world. They are not the typical western European reps.

4. We're underselling Myles Amine. How many times does a top 2 or 3 guy nationally from our NCAA system have to step in and be an immediate medal contender before we accept that the right guys with the right background can have real success with very little lag time? His semi's appearance is being cited as a sign 86 was weak--except that he crushed 2 medalists and beat medal favorite Torreblanca to get there.

5. MOST IMPORTANTLY: There were a LOT of mild upsets that stacked on top of each other that left us with a strange quarterfinals and semifinals. Friev upsets the clear top-bracket favorite Erdin. Reichmuth upsets Friev in the match of his life--and suddenly the door is open for Punia to step into the finals not having faced a top opponent. Dudarov takes out Makoev and Downey while Amine upsets 3 guys in a row and we get a weird San Marino-Germany quarterfinal. Aminishvili and Gostiyev fell early. All the name guys and name nations fell early except for Russia and Iran, basically. This weird run of results, more than anything, gave us the false impression that it was a no-depth, weak weight.

6. A lopsided draw accentuated the impact of the upsets. There were at least 7 legit medal possibilities that were gone by the round of 16 in Yazdani's quarter alone because they were all bunched together. Arguably that same number were gone by the round of 16 from Amine's quarter too. Meanwhile, Reichmuth faced two non-contenders before finding himself with an upset possibility in the quarterfinals.

Edited September 23, 2019 by maligned

[Katie 1,076]

Good points.

As far as the bracket goes, it’s almost as if the 86kg bracket was drawn in a way that would give the Kazakhstani the best chance to qualify the spot for Tokyo.

Edited September 23, 2019 by Katie

[jon 158]

Lol.

[scribe 1,838]

I’d bet a serious amount of money Amine doesn’t make it out if the first round of his olympics bracket. 

[olddirty 346]

22 minutes ago, scribe said:

I’d bet a serious amount of money Amine doesn’t make it out if the first round of his olympics bracket. 

You will have qualifiers from the African and Oceana qualifier.  Both of the top contenders in the Asian Qualifier will sit out of that one.  One of the Pan Am reps will be sitting as well.  There is a serious chance he pulls a total chump in the first round.

[scribe 1,838]

I’m laying down $5 on this one. 

[Graverobber 43]

14 hours ago, maligned said:

 

3. We're too caught up in the nation on the uniform. We think it's "weak" because Spain or Germany or Slovakia have a chance. Those are real guys with real credentials against top guys from around the world. They are not the typical western European reps.

Well, Dudarov is a exception I think, our freestyle team isn't really the best and besides of 86kg and maybe 97kg it will take years to produce wrestlers with the chance to medal. He's the only one we thought with a realistic chance to medal and he did a great job but it should be noted, he isn't the typical German freestyle wrestler 

[spladle08 1,126]

Naw 86kg was a super deep weight.

 

Yazdani was obviously the class of it from day one, and we all knew he would go unchallenged, so anti-climatic.

 

But then there were 10 very capable guys who could've all finished runner up (depending on draw)

 

I think the lack of mega-stars/Flo promotion/household names.... had a lot to do with it.

But naw... on the whole, very talented weight.

 

 

 

 

[Housebuye 2,438]

People should not be saying that. 

The draws were misaligned but the talent was there for sure. Stacked weight. I think probably 2nd most stacked behind 65