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6 minutes ago, jdalu75 said:

Actually, med forfeits count in standalone win percentage, just not the win percentage used for RPI.  Which is different from the second win percentage that can be used to get into the at-large pool.

Before I figured that out I suspected it, and I actually used the phrase "No sane man would ... " set up a system like that, before I discovered that the NCAA already had.

BTW, Richard needed both wins yesterday to get to .700 D1 at weight; one of his earlier wins was over a prep guy.

Do MFF *losses* count in win % or just MFF wins? If losses count, Hunter Richard went 2-2 yesterday and I don't see how that could have improved his winning percentage.

I can see the logic in it - don't punish a guy with losses in a match he didn't wrestle but also credit the opponent with the win they showed up for.

Edited by ugarte

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18 hours ago, ugarte said:

thinking about AQs for the conference:

125: 6, maybe 7 (CR/RPI: Glory, Colaccio, Curry, Treaster, Chalifoux; CR/W% Paetzell; Bubble: Manchio)  Looks good

133: 3  (CR/RPI: Tucker, Cobb; CR/W%Trampe)  Tucker and Trampe, Cobb a longshot; probably just two

141: 3, but a lot of bubble guys (CR/RPI: Zapf, Profaci, Kazmir; Bubble: Sparacio, Baughman, Trybus, Pomrinca, Gil)  The first three.  Trybus maybe.  Lots of at-large candidates

149: 5 (CR/RPI: Clarke, Richard; CR/W%: Kolodzik, Hoffman; RPI/W%: Kolonia)  Klod, Clarke, Hoffman.  Bubble boys are Kolonia and Richard.  Stealing an AQ:  Jared Prince, who went at 149 yesterday.

157: 4, maybe 5 (CR/RPI: Monday, Hartman, Humphreys; Artalona; Bubble: Ladnier)  The first three.  Believe it or not, Artalona's on the bubble.  He won't get a CP rank because he's been inactive too long.  RPI good, .700 WP.  That's if he's able to go.  Ladnier also on bubble but looks better than he has since his freshman year.

165: 6 (RPI/CR: Skidgel, Conigliaro, Hartman, McCormick, Jarrell; CR/W% Cuomo)  Looks good; I think they all make it.

174: 3 (4 if Womack competes, one on the bubble) (RPI/CR: Kutler, Harvey, Carey; RPI/W%: Womack; Bubble: Heller)  The first three and Womack should be in.  Agree on Heller.

184: 4, plus a few on the bubble (CR/RPI: DePrez, Weiler, Stewart, Harvey; Bubble: Stefanik, Loew, Davis)  Looks good; Stefanik upset #13 Rutgers guy yesterday, which won't hurt.  Loew probably leaning out but has a good case for at-large.

197: 6 (CR/RPI: Brucki, Jakobsen, Brown, Phipps, Koser; CR/W%: Darmstadt)  Brucki, Jakobsen, Darmstadt all in; Koser beat Brown yesterday so it'll be interesting to see what happens -- one at least should be in; Phipps on the bubble which is why he went to LH yesterday

285: 3 (CR/RPI: Wood, Slavikouski, Sullivan)  Looks good; could make a case for Knighton-Ward of Hofstra but he needs a CP ranking and no one knows who he is.

 

Comments above, and just my best guesses at this point.

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17 minutes ago, ugarte said:

Do MFF *losses* count in win % or just MFF wins? If losses count, Hunter Richard went 2-2 yesterday and I don't see how that could have improved his winning percentage.

I can see the logic in it - don't punish a guy with losses in a match he didn't wrestle but also credit the opponent with the win they showed up for.

MFF wins count; MFF losses do not.  For now; there was a proposed rule change last summer that would have counted MFF losses and it lost.

I can understand that a lot of MFFs aren't really medically related, other than that all wrestlers are hurt all the time.  It's a move to keep coaches from doing what our coaches did yesterday, sending a guy to get a couple of bouts and then pulling him.  But what about a guy who gets hurt but finishes and wins his quarters bout; med forfeits in the semis; med forfeits in the consi semis; med forfeits in the 5th place bout?  Do you really want to hit him with three losses?

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2 hours ago, jdalu75 said:

Comments above, and just my best guesses at this point.

What if Hopkins was named starter after army navy?  Looking at coaching as a “business” Hopkins has much better wins than brown, scores more points in matches and has a 72% win record.  He beat the guy that beat Darmstadt, so pulling brown and adding Hopkins would get him simply replaced in the coaches panel and would probably be a higher RPI.  Hopkins would get the conference another AQ with that coaches decision.  
 

I do not see how coach ward can go with a guy who lost to three wrestlers ranked 4, 5 and 6 in the conference (plus a loss to Lowe at 197).  Ward could argue a higher seed for Hopkins at EIWAs despite lack of conference wins.  
 

speaking of army 197s, there is another 197 with a 21-6 record who has only lost decisions to teammates Hopkins & brown, Cardenas, Lowe and Jakobsen.  In terms of wins, he pinned Noah Adams as a prepster and pinned Koser last year at NCO.  Plus owns 3 wins against teammate brown. That person is Bennet Paulson You have to wonder what he did to get into the doghouse.  Wrestlestat has him ranted higher than brown and Hopkins.  

Edited by Cptafw164

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Other possibilities --

125 Dylan Ryder, Hofstra, has a .7647 WP and just cleared 15 bouts.

133 Angelo Rini, Columbia, .7368 WP, now with 17 bouts.

141 Wil Gil, F&M, an NCAA alternate last year, .7742 WP, was 29th in RPI last time.

157 Kyle Mosher, Columbia, .8000 WP, 15 bouts.

 

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2 hours ago, Cptafw164 said:

What if Hopkins was named starter after army navy?  Looking at coaching as a “business” Hopkins has much better wins than brown, scores more points in matches and has a 72% win record.  He beat the guy that beat Darmstadt, so pulling brown and adding Hopkins would get him simply replaced in the coaches panel and would probably be a higher RPI.  Hopkins would get the conference another AQ with that coaches decision.  
 

Brown has a .7307 WP, Hopkins .7000.  He also beat the other guy that beat Darmstadt, and he beat Hopkins.  I don't see a whole lot of difference between the two, but Brown has a better chance of earning the AQ based on WP and RPI.

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8 hours ago, jdalu75 said:

Comments above, and just my best guesses at this point.

thanks. I wasn't doing any research on guys who were climbing or sliding in the closing weeks of the regular season so I knew there would be a lot for you to second guess. 

Edited by ugarte

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6 hours ago, klehner said:

Yianni will be wrestling in two weeks at the Pan Am Games in Canada.

!!!

edit: just saw that it isn't part of the Olympic qualification process. was wondering what happened to Zain. 

Edited by ugarte

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6 hours ago, ugarte said:

thanks. I wasn't doing any research on guys who were climbing or sliding in the closing weeks of the regular season so I knew there would be a lot for you to second guess. 

Well, it's hard to do!  I mean, who was Kyle Mosher two weeks ago?  He's a Columbia freshman and the only reason I was familiar with the name was he's one of 570 or so EIWA wrestlers that I track.  Then he cut to 157, won enough so his record there is .800, now has enough bouts to qualify for an RPI, and is ranked in three polls this week -- so far.  Who saw that coming?

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3 hours ago, jdalu75 said:

Well, it's hard to do!  I mean, who was Kyle Mosher two weeks ago?  He's a Columbia freshman and the only reason I was familiar with the name was he's one of 570 or so EIWA wrestlers that I track.  Then he cut to 157, won enough so his record there is .800, now has enough bouts to qualify for an RPI, and is ranked in three polls this week -- so far.  Who saw that coming?

I'm not surprised. Against Santoro, Mosher was losing late and IIRC when Santoro tried to tilt him for a major as the end of the match approached, Mosher arched and forced Santoro on his back for a defensive pin. A very impressive move. 

Edit: Not going for the major - the match was tied and Santoro was trying to prevent an escape that would have given Mosher the lead (unless Santoro had RT - I'm not watching enough to figure that out).

Edited by ugarte

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On 2/23/2020 at 10:34 PM, ugarte said:

thinking about AQs for the conference:

125: 6, maybe 7 (CR/RPI: Glory, Colaccio, Curry, Treaster, Chalifoux; CR/W% Paetzell; Bubble: Manchio) Actual: 7

133: 3  (CR/RPI: Tucker, Cobb; CR/W%Trampe) Actual: 2

141: 3, but a lot of bubble guys (CR/RPI: Zapf, Profaci, Kazmir; Bubble: Sparacio, Baughman, Trybus, Pomrinca, Gil) Actual: 5

149: 5 (CR/RPI: Clarke, Richard; CR/W%: Kolodzik, Hoffman; RPI/W%: Kolonia) Actual: 4

157: 4, maybe 5 (CR/RPI: Monday, Hartman, Humphreys; Artalona; Bubble: Ladnier) Actual:3

165: 6 (RPI/CR: Skidgel, Conigliaro, Hartman, McCormick, Jarrell; CR/W% Cuomo) Actual: 6

174: 3 (4 if Womack competes, one on the bubble) (RPI/CR: Kutler, Harvey, Carey; RPI/W%: Womack; Bubble: Heller) Actual: 4

184: 4, plus a few on the bubble (CR/RPI: DePrez, Weiler, Sewart, Harvey; Bubble: Stefanik, Loew, Davis) Actual: 4

197: 6 (CR/RPI: Brucki, Jakobsen, Brown, Phipps, Koser; CR/W%: DarmstadtActual: 6

285: 3 (CR/RPI: Wood, Slavikouski, Sullivan) Actual: 3

I used jdalu's EIWA Composite from last week to do this, so it doesn't reflect how the last week will affect CR and RPI. If a wrestler had a qualifying CR/RPI I didn't look at their record, but obviously many of them also have a qualifying winning %.  I also don't remember the match minimum for W% and assumed it was the same as to be in the CR. Trampe and Kolodzik come to mind as guys with gaudy win% but not many matches. For the bubble I basically had people in the 29-33 range of CR and/or RPI, considering wrestlestat's win% as well.

Now jdalu can correct me. Also, if he wanted to post a link to the latest AQ and at large criteria that would be great.

so how did I do?

We got the bubble at 125. JDALU was right about Cobb missing the cut at 133. Two from the bubble at 141. One of the bubble guys at 149. JDALU was right about Artalona and Ladnier at 157. Nailed it at 165. Nailed in at 174 since I assume Womack is one of the AQ. Nobody came off the bubble at 184. Surprised at Stefanik especially.  Nailed 197 and 285. I guess I'll wait to see what SHP comes up with to see if there are any errors in this post too.

EDIT: Here's the CR and RPI

Edited by ugarte

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4 minutes ago, ugarte said:

so how did I do?

We got the bubble at 125. JDALU was right about Cobb missing the cut at 133. Two from the bubble at 141. One of the bubble guys at 149. JDALU was right about Artalona and Ladnier at 157. Nailed it at 165. Nailed in at 174 since I assume Womack is one of the AQ. Nobody came off the bubble at 184. Surprised at Stefanik especially.  Nailed 197 and 285. I guess I'll wait to see what SHP comes up with to see if there are any errors in this post too.

Could be the year Baughman finally goes to the big dance?  Looks like either five, six (Loew), or seven (Lajoie) guys have a good shot at Minneapolis.

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125: (7)
CR: Glory (3) Patzell (5) Colaiocco (9) Chalifoux (19) Curry (20) Treaster (26) Manchio (30)
RPI: Glory (1) Paetzell (3) Colaiocco (5) Chalifoux (18) Curry (21) Treaster (23) Manchio (29)

133: (2)
CR: Tucker (4) Farro (20) Trampe (26) Cobb (32) Miller (33)
RPI: Tucker (4) Farro (30) Cobb (31)

141: (5)
CR: Zapf (16) Profaci (23) Kazimir (29) Trybus (30) Baughman (32)
RPI: Profaci (12) Trybus (18) Baughman (20) Zapf (21) Sparacio (26) Kazimir (27) Gil (30) Pomrinca (33)

149: (4)
CR: Kolodzik (10) Clarke (12) Hoffman (24) Richard (31) 
RPI Hoffman (11) Clarke (12) Richard (27) Kolonia (33)

157: (3)
CR: Monday (4) Hartman (9) Humphries (10) 
RPI: Monday (2) Hartman (10) Artalona (17) Humphries (29) Kropman (30)

165: (6)
CR: Skidgel (9) Hartman (15) Conigliaro (18) Jarrell (20) McCormick (21) Cuomo (22)
RPI: Skidgel (10) McCormick (17) Conigliaro (18) Jarrell (20) Hartman (23) Meyer (33)

174: (4)
CR: Kutler (3) Carey (19) Harvey (21) Womack (25) O'Malley (30) Heller (33)
RPI: Kutler (1) Carey (10) Harvey (16) Womack (26) Parker (27) Heller (31) O'Malley (33)

184: (4)
CR: Deprez (4) Weiler (15) Stewart (16) Harvey (20) Stefanik (24) Loew (29)
RPI: Deprez (5) Weiler (7) Stewart (14) Loew (22) Harvey (26) 

197: (6)
CR: Darmstadt (4) Brucki (7) Jakobsen (23) Brown (25) Phipps (27) Koser (28)
RPI: Brucki (7) Jakobsen (20) Brown (21) Koser (28) Phipps (29) Urbas (33)

285: (3)
CR: Wood (8) Slavikouski (9) Sullivan (19) Knighton-Ward (32)
RPI: Slavikousi (12) Sullivan (14) Wood (16) Doyle (27) Knighton-Ward (28) Goldin (33)

I will leave win% to anyone else.

Edited by ugarte

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13 minutes ago, klehner said:

Could be the year Baughman finally goes to the big dance?  Looks like either five, six (Loew), or seven (Lajoie) guys have a good shot at Minneapolis.

nice to not be in a one-bid bracket with a national champ, that's for sure.

Edited by ugarte

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I'm stumped by 4 at 184. Three are easy but only one AQ from Stefanik (.770 win%), Harvey and Loew seems crazy. High bar at that weight I guess.

EDIT: Stefanik only had 14 D-I matches. He needed to go to Lock Haven  for two matches instead of wrestling Rutgers ... except that it was the difference in the dual so I assume Princeton has no regrets a .714 winning percentage and the cutline was .720. I was wrong about how wrestlestat shows winning percentage.

Edited by ugarte

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On 2/24/2020 at 10:01 PM, ugarte said:

 

I can see the logic in it - don't punish a guy with losses in a match he didn't wrestle but also credit the opponent with the win they showed up for.

That's ratings "double dipping" there and would definitely lead to ratings inflation in an ELO type system. Somebody has to go down by the same amount as the other went up otherwise the whole system goes kaput.

Edited by TobusRex

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1 minute ago, TobusRex said:

That's ratings "double dipping" there and would definitely lead to ratings inflation in an ELO type system. Somebody has to go down by the same amount as the other went up otherwise the whole system goes kaput.

i agree that it doesn't work in an ELO system, but assuming the good faith of all parties, it is not as illogical for wins/losses by forfeit to be treated differently if match accumulation and win percentage matter.

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On 2/24/2020 at 9:14 PM, jdalu75 said:

Brown has a .7307 WP, Hopkins .7000.  He also beat the other guy that beat Darmstadt, and he beat Hopkins.  I don't see a whole lot of difference between the two, but Brown has a better chance of earning the AQ based on WP and RPI.

Hopkins beat the guy that beat Darmstadt.  I wonder how a match between Hs classmates and teammates would play out.  Darmstadt and Brown.  

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