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Cox to 86kg — because he wants to block DT?

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7 hours ago, Ogalthorpe Haywood said:

Taylor just said what many were thinking. People think Cox will cut and run through DT, those matches in ‘17 were pretty damn close with the old weigh in rules. Since then DT has won a world championship in a weight that Cox has failed too. I think Taylor is the favorite at 86kg.  

Cox just won and has been wrestling longer than DT and is in much better shape considering DT major knee surgery 

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55 minutes ago, SatoriTiger said:

Any idea how the seeding will determined?  Why wouldn't, for example, PD3 be the 1 seed as the returning US rep?  

Because he didn’t qualify the weight (wrestle for a medal). If he had, he would be the automatic 1 seed. Below is the verbatim USAW seeding criteria. The one thing I’m unsure about is if Downey would still automatically get the #1 seed if he goes to an international event between now and the OTT’s and is able to qualify the weight. As I read the criteria below he would. In that event the 86kg bracket would be RIDICULOUSLY lopsided with DT, Cox, and Ringer all in the bottom half of the bracket (assuming DT and Ringer were the 2 and 3 seeds). The most tragic part about that is our first Olympic alternate would be Downey or whoever comes out of the top half. So let’s say DT beats Ringer and Cox to make it out of the bottom half and then beats Downey in the finals. If DT reinjured his knee after the trials we’d send Downey to Tokyo over Cox or Ringer. I hope I’m wrong in how I interpret the part about Downey getting the automatic #1 seed if he qualifies the weight post 2019 worlds...even if somebody else like Ringer, Cox or DT also qualify the weight. I don’t care about his seed but I do care about it meaning neither Cox nor Ringer have a chance to be our first alternate (in a scenario in which DT wins and gets injured before Tokyo).
 

Seeding Criteria
a. A 2019 World Championship team member who qualifies the weight for the 2020 Olympic Games will automatically receive the #1 seed at the same weight category in which he qualified, with medalists earning an automatic berth to Part Two as explained below.
b. Ranked criteria to be used when voting on seeds will be limited to the following:
i. Head to head within the last year. The “last year” is defined as the April 2019 U.S. Open up to the 2020 U.S. Olympic Team Trials ‐ Wrestling.
1. If there is a split in matches, the last win determines the top seed.
ii. Common opponents within the “last year” as defined above.
   5

iii. Medalist at a United World Wrestling (UWW) calendar event within the “last year”.
iv. Majority vote will decide the higher seed if there are multiple medalists from UWW calendar events within the “last year”.
c. If there is one 2019 medalist from a UWW calendar event entering the Olympic weight category, that individual will be placed in the bottom semifinal (Part One).
d. If there are two 2019 medalists from UWW calendar event(s) entering the Olympic weight, the seeding committee will determine which individual will be placed in both the top and bottom semifinal (Part One)

Edited by MDogg

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If Taylor is healthy he beats Cox. People forget how much of a monster he was at 86 the last two years. More consistent than Cox at that weight.
 

Let’s also not forget the circumstances surrounding their head to head. Taylor had been wrestling several matches the same day. Cox was fresh. Taylor beat him convincingly in their first match. If/when they go head-to-head at trials for best of 3, it will be on its own day. Aka no advantage Cox like last time. 

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5 hours ago, CaliWrestler said:

Cox just won and has been wrestling longer than DT and is in much better shape considering DT major knee surgery 

Up a weight though. Cutting 14 lbs will take a toll especially back to back days scratch weight. I can’t see Cox being the same dominant  guy as he is at 92. 

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already told ya'll cox doesn't like taylor (no inside info, just something you can see)

And he told everyone his plans post worlds presser - he said decision will be based on who he wants to take out.  yazdani/taylor or snyder/sadulaev

God bless cox for whatever motivates him. He has good reason to dislike taylor for his whiny unsportsmanlike antics after losing to cox on one leg and then calling out cox at worlds.

Hope Cox smashes him. Key for Cox is not to get cocky like Taylor did prior to meeting cox last time. 

 

 

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2 hours ago, AZ_wrestling said:

If Taylor is healthy he beats Cox. People forget how much of a monster he was at 86 the last two years. More consistent than Cox at that weight.
 

Let’s also not forget the circumstances surrounding their head to head. Taylor had been wrestling several matches the same day. Cox was fresh. Taylor beat him convincingly in their first match. If/when they go head-to-head at trials for best of 3, it will be on its own day. Aka no advantage Cox like last time. 

No disputing who was more consistent at that weight two years ago.  Cox beat him head to head - when it counted most.  I think Cox has made lots of changes that are paying off and DT is fresh off a serious injury in his thirtieth year. Time will tell.

Moving on - People talk about Cox making weight under the new rules, but what about Taylor?  He looks like he cuts a considerable amount of weight.  I think that part is a wash.

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Cox is a rather boring wrestler to watch.  Very defensive. Lots of natural muscle from birth, but he is not the most technical or talented wrestler out there.    Hope DT beats him.  First thing to do is to negate his sweat advantage. 

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i'm not saying either of one DT or Cox can't beat Yazdani, just saying Yazdani will be the Olympic favorite. Returning WC at the weight would be a slight favorite over Cox if he's our rep. Yes DT has beaten him, but not after a serious knee injury which would make him the underdog.

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10 hours ago, AZ_wrestling said:

If Taylor is healthy he beats Cox. People forget how much of a monster he was at 86 the last two years. More consistent than Cox at that weight.
 

Let’s also not forget the circumstances surrounding their head to head. Taylor had been wrestling several matches the same day. Cox was fresh. Taylor beat him convincingly in their first match. If/when they go head-to-head at trials for best of 3, it will be on its own day. Aka no advantage Cox like last time. 

As Plasmodium said, Cox was more consistent than Taylor at 86 in 2015/2016, and then bumped up, moved to Colorado and became a monster at 92. How Cox handles the weight cut will be the biggest factor in my opinion.

This supposed disadvantage that Taylor had by having to wrestle several matches before their best of 3 is way overblown. That was a cake walk for him. Really just a warmup and he certainly didn't look tired in their first match. After that, he had no answer for J'den, even after trying to break his leg.

That all said, if Taylor is fully healthy enough to be J'den 2 out of 3 (which better be how they meet up, any earlier would be a crime (unless Ringer has brought himself up to the level of these two)), he will be the world champ again.

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5 hours ago, dmm53 said:

Lots of natural muscle from birth

“From birth”...what an absurd comment. So you checked out his physique as a baby and have you monitored how hard he’s worked to get stronger since?

”Cox was born with his advantages whereas the other guys worked really hard for theirs.”

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15 hours ago, MDogg said:

Because he didn’t qualify the weight (wrestle for a medal). If he had, he would be the automatic 1 seed. Below is the verbatim USAW seeding criteria. The one thing I’m unsure about is if Downey would still automatically get the #1 seed if he goes to an international event between now and the OTT’s and is able to qualify the weight. As I read the criteria below he would. In that event the 86kg bracket would be RIDICULOUSLY lopsided with DT, Cox, and Ringer all in the bottom half of the bracket (assuming DT and Ringer were the 2 and 3 seeds). The most tragic part about that is our first Olympic alternate would be Downey or whoever comes out of the top half. So let’s say DT beats Ringer and Cox to make it out of the bottom half and then beats Downey in the finals. If DT reinjured his knee after the trials we’d send Downey to Tokyo over Cox or Ringer. I hope I’m wrong in how I interpret the part about Downey getting the automatic #1 seed if he qualifies the weight post 2019 worlds...even if somebody else like Ringer, Cox or DT also qualify the weight. I don’t care about his seed but I do care about it meaning neither Cox nor Ringer have a chance to be our first alternate (in a scenario in which DT wins and gets injured before Tokyo).
 

Seeding Criteria
a. A 2019 World Championship team member who qualifies the weight for the 2020 Olympic Games will automatically receive the #1 seed at the same weight category in which he qualified, with medalists earning an automatic berth to Part Two as explained below.
b. Ranked criteria to be used when voting on seeds will be limited to the following:
i. Head to head within the last year. The “last year” is defined as the April 2019 U.S. Open up to the 2020 U.S. Olympic Team Trials ‐ Wrestling.
1. If there is a split in matches, the last win determines the top seed.
ii. Common opponents within the “last year” as defined above.
   5

iii. Medalist at a United World Wrestling (UWW) calendar event within the “last year”.
iv. Majority vote will decide the higher seed if there are multiple medalists from UWW calendar events within the “last year”.
c. If there is one 2019 medalist from a UWW calendar event entering the Olympic weight category, that individual will be placed in the bottom semifinal (Part One).
d. If there are two 2019 medalists from UWW calendar event(s) entering the Olympic weight, the seeding committee will determine which individual will be placed in both the top and bottom semifinal (Part One)

If by chance Downey was 1, the 4 seed would be on his side. 2, 3 & 4 would not all be on the other side. 

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Is Taylor actually coming off a major knee injury? For all we know he may have simply torn his meniscus and was out 8 weeks at the most inopportune time and decided to fully heal for an Olympics run rather than a world title. He may be 100% right now for all anyone outside of NLWC knows.

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1 minute ago, ConnorsDad said:

If by chance Downey was 1, the 4 seed would be on his side. 2, 3 & 4 would not all be on the other side. 

Correct...I don’t think I said otherwise? Cox, as the returning world medalist at another weight, would be sitting in the bottom semis but would be unseeded. In other threads I’ve written about how absurd I think it is that returning medalists from other weights sitting in the semis are unseeded. Totally distorts the brackets.

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1 minute ago, bnwtwg said:

Is Taylor actually coming off a major knee injury? For all we know he may have simply torn his meniscus and was out 8 weeks at the most inopportune time and decided to fully heal for an Olympics run rather than a world title. He may be 100% right now for all anyone outside of NLWC knows.

A fully torn (off the bone) meniscus is a very serious injury with a lengthy rehab. It't not the outpatient surgery with 3 weeks rest that middle aged men receive to shave small partial tears.

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1 minute ago, MDogg said:

Correct...I don’t think I said otherwise? Cox, as the returning world medalist at another weight, would be sitting in the bottom semis but would be unseeded. In other threads I’ve written about how absurd I think it is that returning medalists from other weights sitting in the semis are unseeded. Totally distorts the brackets.

For Downey to get to the finals barring something weird, he will have to beat one of the big 3, DT, JC or AD. So if by chance he beats 1 and loses the final to DT who then gets hurt, he has at least beat Cox or Ringer. Not ideal but better than being gifted a spot.

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2 minutes ago, bnwtwg said:

Is Taylor actually coming off a major knee injury? For all we know he may have simply torn his meniscus and was out 8 weeks at the most inopportune time and decided to fully heal for an Olympics run rather than a world title. He may be 100% right now for all anyone outside of NLWC knows.

Final X was in June and the world championships in Sept. so if he only needed a scope for a minor meniscus tear he could have gotten a delay and been fine. I've wrestled 10 days after that surgery. What ever he had would have been pretty serious and probably involved opening the knee up.

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Even if Downey is the 1 seed the likelihood that he makes it to the semis is not the highest. The bigger question is how they seed regarding the finals. Do you give Taylor the 4 so that he makes it? Do you give Taylor the 3 based on past merit? On its face this would punish Ringer but the reality is that the 4 seed would be the best draw. That said it doesn't matter because they wrestle for true 2nd/ true 3rd**

image.png.2c9fd035f7481441b8d07148fd4e8fe6.png

 

**Am I incorrect on this? If so I will edit immediately.

 

Edited by bnwtwg

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23 minutes ago, ConnorsDad said:

If by chance Downey was 1, the 4 seed would be on his side. 2, 3 & 4 would not all be on the other side. 

Also at the OTT there will be a true second. If the second and third place finisher had not met they will match up. 

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8 minutes ago, Plasmodium said:

Anyone know when the next Olympic qualifying tournament is?  That seems the definitive path to a number one seed.

Pan ams before the trials (I think December? But not sure). Last chance qualifier after the trials. 

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3 hours ago, ConnorsDad said:

For Downey to get to the finals barring something weird, he will have to beat one of the big 3, DT, JC or AD. So if by chance he beats 1 and loses the final to DT who then gets hurt, he has at least beat Cox or Ringer. Not ideal but better than being gifted a spot.

I don’t believe so...the key is that JC won’t be seeded at all. He’ll be sitting in the bottom semi’s. So the #2 and #3 seed would meet in the quarters on the bottom side, and the winner would face Cox in the semi’s. 

There was a discussion about this in another thread. I think it’s ludicrous that the guy sitting in the semi’s isn’t seeded...but it appears that’s how it is. 

This is a really unusual situation though...mainly because it’s loaded and the it’s very rare to have 2 guys as good as DT and Ringer who don’t have the privilege of sitting in either the semis or finals. MOST people who qualify the weight wins up sitting in the finals. In this possibility, Downey could lock up the 1 seed without getting the bye to the semis or finals. 

The system works better if you take the likely brackets for 74kg next year. Burroughs in the 2/3 finals and Dake sitting in the bottom half semi’s of the mini-tournament. The #1 seed (let’s say Imar) then wouldn’t have to deal with Dake until the mini-tournament finals. In that scenario things work out as they should, everybody would rather be the 1 seed than the 2 or 3 seed.

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3 hours ago, Lurker said:

Also at the OTT there will be a true second. If the second and third place finisher had not met they will match up. 

Oh, even better. Didn't know. Could be very important. Almost guarantees our two best finish 1-2 barring an injury during the tournament.

Edited by ConnorsDad

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3 hours ago, Plasmodium said:

Anyone know when the next Olympic qualifying tournament is?  That seems the definitive path to a number one seed.

Only for Downey and Cox. Per the criteria I posted above you get the #1 seed if you were on the 2019 world team AND qualify the weight. Qualifying the weight wouldn’t guarantee the 1 seed to Ringer or DT.

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