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Cox to 86kg — because he wants to block DT?

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28 minutes ago, MDogg said:

It will result in the single most lopsided bracket I’ve ever seen...and at one of our deepest weights in a very, very long time. The real travesty is that it means the first alternate will come out of the top half. 

I would argue that the bottom half of 2018 Worlds at 86 was more lopsided. 

Just saying...

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58 minutes ago, wrestlingnerd said:

By "medalist", they clearly mean world medalist at an Olympic weight and not Pan-Am medalist. The passage you excerpted is part of a document that references "medalist" many times. The entire document that details procedures references the word "medalist" in only two contexts: (1) bronze or above in 2019 Worlds at an Olympic weight and (2) bronze or above in 2019 Worlds at a non-Olympic weight.

The context for "medalist" in your excerpt is provided several paragraphs above: "A 2019 Senior World Championship Olympic weight category medalist will  receive an automatic berth to the 2020 U.S. Olympic Team Trials finals, at that  respective weight (Part Two best‐of‐three series)."

If you read the entire document, it is clear that 2019 World Olympic weight medalists bypass part 1 of the OTT process altogether and sit in the final best-of-three (i.e. JB and Snyder) and 2019 World non-Olympic weight medalists go right to the semis of the tournament in part 1 (i.e. Dake, Cox). Everyone else starts from scratch in round 1 of the tournament that is part 1.

Thank you. Now I got it. Looking at that one paragraph without taking it in context 9with the rest threw me off. Am I also correct in assuming that if the final Olympic qualifiers were before our trials, and Downey went to it and qualified the weight, that would also get him the #1 seed?

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1 hour ago, nhs67 said:

Super awkward then when he shows up for OTT at 86kg. That would make half the top 6 being training at the ORTC in Heflin, Martin, and Cox.

Then there been is the void left at 213lbs still...

Well I reckon he'll be going up but that would be a plot twist if after going to Columbus he actually goes down.  Also is Martin really top 6 at 86kg?  Downey, Taylor, Heflin, Dieringer, Valencia, Brooks, Brett Pfarr, Max Dean and, in your scenario, Cox would all be there.

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42 minutes ago, ConnorsDad said:

Thank you. Now I got it. Looking at that one paragraph without taking it in context 9with the rest threw me off. Am I also correct in assuming that if the final Olympic qualifiers were before our trials, and Downey went to it and qualified the weight, that would also get him the #1 seed?

Absolutely. Pan Ams is only relevant in that it is one of two qualifiers available to US athletes. The other is a tournament in Europe at a later date (but prior to our OTT). In theory, Downey has two bites at the apple to earn a #1 seed for Part 1 of the 2-part OTT process next year. This is why I mentioned that it is so important to know what the team selection process is for Pan Ams (as well as for the other qualifier, for that matter). If they are going with 2019 World Team members first, then Downey has a good shot at earning the #1 seed. If there is some other process, it is of course much less likely that he'll get that shot since any of Cox, DT, Ringer, et al would want to get their shot at qualifying the weight--and would be highly motivated to do so, thereby preventing PD3 from doing so himself and earning the #1 seed.

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4 hours ago, Fishbane said:

Well I reckon he'll be going up but that would be a plot twist if after going to Columbus he actually goes down.  Also is Martin really top 6 at 86kg?  Downey, Taylor, Heflin, Dieringer, Valencia, Brooks, Brett Pfarr, Max Dean and, in your scenario, Cox would all be there.

Martin is right there in in that tier that overlaps around #6.

He is undoubtedly capable of beating everyone on that list aside for Dieringer, Taylor, and Cox. That is merely my opinion.

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On 10/27/2019 at 6:34 PM, ConnorsDad said:

Winning the pan am's gives him no seeding benefit at least by my reading. 

You identified a possible ambiguity, but the ambiguity relies on poor draftsmanship. The clean textual reading is that (1) a world team member who (2) qualifies the weight at any time gets the #1 seed.
The phrase "with medalists earning a bye to Part II" does not create an ambiguity first, because it is qualified by "as explained below" and second, because it is possible to qualify the weight at Worlds without medaling. 
I'm glad you agree that wrestlingnerd has the better resolution of it but I had already started typing a response and didn't want to delete it. 

On 10/28/2019 at 9:20 AM, wrestlingnerd said:

Seeding for part 1:

If PD3 (the only 2019 world team member at 86 kg) qualifies 86 kg at Pan Ams, he gets the #1 seed for part 1. Since there are no returning medalists at 86 kg, this means that if PD3 makes the finals of Part 1, he moves on to face whoever else makes it to the finals in a best -of-three (i.e. part 2). This is a huge advantage for PD3 in this particular year because Cox and DT would very likely be on the opposite side of the part 1 brackets as the 2 and 3 seeds, respectively (Cox, by virtue of being a returning medalist at an adjacent weight and having the edge over DT in head-to-head matches ... and DT by virtue of being the next best wrestler objectively). 

 

I'm trying to understand how the bracket works, assuming Cox goes 86 and PD3 qualifies the weight. Does the 1 seed get any kind of a bye? I would think Cox would be seeded wherever the criteria place him and then the bracket would warp itself around him, eliminating the "branches" in his line and placing him directly into the semis. In the attached image, assume that Downey is the 1 and Cox is the 2 and there are 13 entrants. By this logic, any additional entrants would be in a pigtail. Would this be correct?

screnshot 1.png

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20 hours ago, wrestlingnerd said:

Absolutely. Pan Ams is only relevant in that it is one of two qualifiers available to US athletes. The other is a tournament in Europe at a later date (but prior to our OTT). 

The second (and last qualifier) is actually after our OTT

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2 minutes ago, Lurker said:

The second (and last qualifier) is actually after our OTT

I stand corrected. Pan Ams is even more important to how 86 kg shakes out than I thought. I can’t wait to find out how they select the teams. 

Edited by wrestlingnerd

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8 minutes ago, ugarte said:

You identified a possible ambiguity, but the ambiguity relies on poor draftsmanship. The clean textual reading is that (1) a world team member who (2) qualifies the weight at any time gets the #1 seed.
The phrase "with medalists earning a bye to Part II" does not create an ambiguity first, because it is qualified by "as explained below" and second, because it is possible to qualify the weight at Worlds without medaling. 
I'm glad you agree that wrestlingnerd has the better resolution of it but I had already started typing a response and didn't want to delete it. 

I'm trying to understand how the bracket works, assuming Cox goes 86 and PD3 qualifies the weight. Does the 1 seed get any kind of a bye? I would think Cox would be seeded wherever the criteria place him and then the bracket would warp itself around him, eliminating the "branches" in his line and placing him directly into the semis. In the attached image, assume that Downey is the 1 and Cox is the 2 and there are 13 entrants. By this logic, any additional entrants would be in a pigtail. Would this be correct?

screnshot 1.png

I don’t think we know until we know the number of entrants. Whatever bracket structure we use needs to accommodate the (at least for 2020) hypothetical situation in which there are two world medalists from two separate adjacent weights in the Part 1 tournament, so I’m not sure your diagram allows for this. Maybe they have two separate brackets to use for the two separate situations: one bye to semis or two byes to semis. 
 

Unfortunately, none of the literature detailing OTT procedures discussed exactly how bracketing and seeding will work. 

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2 minutes ago, wrestlingnerd said:

I don’t think we know until we know the number of entrants. Whatever bracket structure we use needs to accommodate the (at least for 2020) hypothetical situation in which there are two world medalists from two separate adjacent weights in the Part 1 tournament, so I’m not sure your diagram allows for this. Maybe they have two separate brackets to use for the two separate situations: one bye to semis or two byes to semis. 
 

Unfortunately, none of the literature detailing OTT procedures discussed exactly how bracketing and seeding will work. 

Forget the number of entrants - it isn't relevant to bracket structure except insofar as it determines the number of rounds required.

Is there any scenario with two possible adjacent world medalists? I thought Dake announced he was going down. That said, you're right, it is a possible scenario.

If Dake went up and Cox went down, I think you end up with a bracket where it is dependent on seeding, with the caveat that Dake and Cox can't be seeded to meet before the semis. If they are seeded 2/3 (again, assume mandatory 1 for Downey after PanAm), Dake v Cox would be the entire bottom half of the bracket. otherwise, I think you get 2 paths to the semis, one leading to Cox and the other to Dake. 

If you assume Dake goes down to 74, where JB has a bye to the finals and Dake a bye to the semis. I think the 74 bracket looks like:

screnshot 1.png

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Number of participants absolutely matters! IT determines whether there are byes for the top seed (or anyone, for that matter), whether there are pigtails, etc. You can't just forget about that important figure.

As for Dake, we know he's going 74kg. But my point was that the procedures can't just assume he will. They have to have a process for the hypothetical (key word next year) scenario in which a medalist from 79 kg and a medalist from 92 kg decide to both go 86 kg. My point was whatever bracket structure you assume should support this scenario.

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3 minutes ago, wrestlingnerd said:

Number of participants absolutely matters! IT determines whether there are byes for the top seed (or anyone, for that matter), whether there are pigtails, etc. You can't just forget about that important figure.

How so? Not a challenge - I'm asking under the assumption you know more than me here. Even if the 1 seed gets a bye beyond the pigtail, it wouldn't affect the structure of the medalist byes, right?

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27 minutes ago, ugarte said:

Forget the number of entrants - it isn't relevant to bracket structure except insofar as it determines the number of rounds required.

Is there any scenario with two possible adjacent world medalists? I thought Dake announced he was going down. That said, you're right, it is a possible scenario.

If Dake went up and Cox went down, I think you end up with a bracket where it is dependent on seeding, with the caveat that Dake and Cox can't be seeded to meet before the semis. If they are seeded 2/3 (again, assume mandatory 1 for Downey after PanAm), Dake v Cox would be the entire bottom half of the bracket. otherwise, I think you get 2 paths to the semis, one leading to Cox and the other to Dake. 

If you assume Dake goes down to 74, where JB has a bye to the finals and Dake a bye to the semis. I think the 74 bracket looks like:

screnshot 1.png

This is incorrect.  When there is a wrestler with a bye to the finals (74kg and 97kg) then the first day is wrestled like a challenge tournament. Any wrestler with a semifinal bye would have a by to the semis of that tournament. It would look like your 86 KG bracket with dake in the bottom semi.  So a corollary would be that Cox's bye is more valuable at 86kg than at 97 kg where he would have to wrestled 2 matches (97) instead of 1 (86kg) on the first day.

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Of course not. I'm not saying I know more than anyone, so please don't assume that. But my point is number of entrants influences how the brackets are filled (maybe "structure" is the wrong word here), e.g. if you have an even or uneven number of entrants. Regarding the charts you drew, my only point was that unless there are two different brackets for both medalist bye scenarios discussed, the bracket needs to allow for the possibility of an 86 kg Dake per the OTT procedures.

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5 minutes ago, wrestlingnerd said:

Of course not. I'm not saying I know more than anyone, so please don't assume that. But my point is number of entrants influences how the brackets are filled (maybe "structure" is the wrong word here), e.g. if you have an even or uneven number of entrants. Regarding the charts you drew, my only point was that unless there are two different brackets for both medalist bye scenarios discussed, the bracket needs to allow for the possibility of an 86 kg Dake per the OTT procedures.

I'm new to following international rules, so I wasn't being glib. You seem to have a lot more experience with them than I do. I'm trying to learn how they build brackets around byes. I don't think number of entrants "matters" because more people just means adding rounds backwards. From what I can tell there's the bye to the WTT final for World medalists, a bye to the challenge tournament semis (per Fishbane below) for weight-adjacent medalists, and from what you said,  pigtail protection for certain seeds. Does that cover it?

8 minutes ago, Fishbane said:

This is incorrect.  When there is a wrestler with a bye to the finals (74kg and 97kg) then the first day is wrestled like a challenge tournament. Any wrestler with a semifinal bye would have a by to the semis of that tournament. It would look like your 86 KG bracket with dake in the bottom semi.  So a corollary would be that Cox's bye is more valuable at 86kg than at 97 kg where he would have to wrestled 2 matches (97) instead of 1 (86kg) on the first day.

So assume Dake goes up and Cox goes down, is the bracket one of these (ignoring pigtail issues)

screnshot 1.png

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8 minutes ago, ugarte said:

I'm new to following international rules, so I wasn't being glib. You seem to have a lot more experience with them than I do. I'm trying to learn how they build brackets around byes. I don't think number of entrants "matters" because more people just means adding rounds backwards. From what I can tell there's the bye to the WTT final for World medalists, a bye to the challenge tournament semis (per Fishbane below) for weight-adjacent medalists, and from what you said,  pigtail protection for certain seeds. Does that cover it?

If we’re trying to be complete, there’s also the scenario without pigtails but first-round byes because the number of entrants demands that. This means there are byes to later rounds (semis) earned through achievements (a la Dake and Cox) and byes that are due to luck of the draw, so to speak, in the first round do competition. Given that it’s the OTT, I have to believe there will be plenty of participation to fully fill whatever brackets are used, but there could be last-minute injuries, failure to make weight, or missed travel. 

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I know everyone will say Im crazy. But 10 lbs lower . I am still not counting Bo Nickal out. I just cant he is too good to dismiss.

 

My Betting odds

Cox 2-1 , Taylor 3-1, Nickal 5-1, Pd 3  50-1

Frank C

 

 

Edited by cangemi

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2 minutes ago, wrestlingnerd said:

... there’s also the scenario without pigtails but first-round byes because the number of entrants demands that...

right. that's the same as any other random tournament without intricate qualification or seeding rules.

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13 minutes ago, ugarte said:

So assume Dake goes up and Cox goes down, is the bracket one of these (ignoring pigtail issues)

screnshot 1.png

This is where the procedures are not clear and leave room for different interpretations. I can’t imagine it would be the one on the left. That would be truly idiotic. It has to be the one on the right. In the specific case of Dake and Cox, since they have history that favors Cox (2-1), I’d expect Dake to be in the top half, with the 1 seed, and Cox in the bottom half. 
 

For 86 kg specifically, whoever wins out of the semis goes to Part 2, best of 3 matches. There is no returning 86 kg medalist waiting in Part 2. For 74 kg, the winner of Part 1 faces JB in Part 2. 

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1 hour ago, ugarte said:

I'm new to following international rules, so I wasn't being glib. You seem to have a lot more experience with them than I do. I'm trying to learn how they build brackets around byes. I don't think number of entrants "matters" because more people just means adding rounds backwards. From what I can tell there's the bye to the WTT final for World medalists, a bye to the challenge tournament semis (per Fishbane below) for weight-adjacent medalists, and from what you said,  pigtail protection for certain seeds. Does that cover it?

So assume Dake goes up and Cox goes down, is the bracket one of these (ignoring pigtail issues)

screnshot 1.png

It would be the second one.  There is an exact bracket for this in the procedures.

Edited by Fishbane

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49 minutes ago, wrestlingnerd said:

This is where the procedures are not clear and leave room for different interpretations. I can’t imagine it would be the one on the left. That would be truly idiotic. It has to be the one on the right. In the specific case of Dake and Cox, since they have history that favors Cox (2-1), I’d expect Dake to be in the top half, with the 1 seed, and Cox in the bottom half. 
 

For 86 kg specifically, whoever wins out of the semis goes to Part 2, best of 3 matches. There is no returning 86 kg medalist waiting in Part 2. For 74 kg, the winner of Part 1 faces JB in Part 2. 

Personally I don’t see how the procedures leave any room for interpretation. Clearly says if there are 2 returning medalists from different weight classes one goes in the top semi’s and the other goes in the bottom...and the seeding committee will decide which goes where. 

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29 minutes ago, wrestlingnerd said:

This is where the procedures are not clear and leave room for different interpretations. I can’t imagine it would be the one on the left. That would be truly idiotic. It has to be the one on the right. In the specific case of Dake and Cox, since they have history that favors Cox (2-1), I’d expect Dake to be in the top half, with the 1 seed, and Cox in the bottom half. 

The qualification rules actually answer the bracket question by presenting the maximally confusing scenario: a weight class with two returning medalists at non-olympic weights and a returning olympic weight medalist. The non-oly medalists are not "seeded" and get bracketed in the scenario i drew on the right, avoiding each other until the finals of Part I. Again, I see that Fishbane replied while I was typing, but the bracket from the rules is below. see http://content.themat.com/forms/2020-OLY-MFS.pdf

 

screnshot 1.png

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1 hour ago, ugarte said:

Forget the number of entrants - it isn't relevant to bracket structure except insofar as it determines the number of rounds required.

Is there any scenario with two possible adjacent world medalists? I thought Dake announced he was going down. That said, you're right, it is a possible scenario.

If Dake went up and Cox went down, I think you end up with a bracket where it is dependent on seeding, with the caveat that Dake and Cox can't be seeded to meet before the semis. If they are seeded 2/3 (again, assume mandatory 1 for Downey after PanAm), Dake v Cox would be the entire bottom half of the bracket. otherwise, I think you get 2 paths to the semis, one leading to Cox and the other to Dake. 

If you assume Dake goes down to 74, where JB has a bye to the finals and Dake a bye to the semis. I think the 74 bracket looks like:

screnshot 1.png

I’m beginning to sound like a broken record on this thread but Dake and Cox won’t be seeded. No returning medalists will be seeded. Dake and Cox will be sitting in the semi’s unseeded regardless of what weight they go. Returning medalists at Olympic weights will be sitting in the day 2 (best of 3g finals unseeded as well.

Edited by MDogg

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1 minute ago, MDogg said:

I’m beginning to sound like a broken record on this thread but Dake and Cox won’t be seeded. No returning medalists will be seeded. Dake and Cox will be sitting in the semi’s unseeded regardless of what weight they go. Returning medalists at Olympic weights will be sitting in the day 2 (best of 3g finals unseeded as well.

yeah i see that now 

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