Jump to content
Housebuye

Ohio State - in the title hunt

Recommended Posts

PSU has proven the value of having multiple high point scorers, even if you have holes. 
  
tOSU has the potential to knock off PSU or Iowa. I say or becuase it is unlikely both PSU and Iowa have down performances, but tOSU sneaking ahead of 1 is possible. 
  
125 - unlikely to score much - 2

133 - Kinner is a beast on top and the weight has weakened. If he is managing the cu, he could make a run - 2-10 points 

141 - Pletcher has beaten everyone except for Nick Lee. He even picked up some bonus  22 points  

149 - Sasso could place anywhere from 1 to 7  either way he will pick up some pins and techs. Realistically maybe 18 points or so (3rd + bonus)

157 - hole. Unless echemedia is ready, no points.

165 - pleasant surprises currently ranked to be R12 and has wins over 1 of the other R12 guys, plus McFadden (top 5 guy). 10 points  

174 - similar to 165. Ranked 9th and there are a few guys ahead of him he can beat on the right day. 10 points  

184 - hole. Sucks given how good he was expected to be. Hopefully just a weight thing or Rocky steps in  

197 - 22 points

285 - ranked 8th, but can beat anyone besides Cassar on the right day. Would it be that shocking if he took out Stencel? Hilger? Hall? Cassioppi? Parris? He isn’t beating all of them, but he only needs to take out 1 to move up by a lot of points  he could realistically make the semis with the right draw. I’ll say 10  

with my ambitious but not absurd numbers, we end up with 104 points, 2 champs, and 7 AAs. 
  
Both Iowa and PSU can score over 100, but I think Iowa in particular is at their ceiling points wise (120ish) and will likely score fewer. Iowa can conceivably not score as many points as expected at: 133, 141, 149, 165, 174, 197 and 285. For example, if Cass places 5th, that would be a great showing for him. Lugo isn’t placing 4th. Marinelli has ncaa issues (im picking him to place 3rd), Kem has injury issues (seems to be holding up thankfully but hasn’t faced anyone), and Warner is...Warner. He could place 2nd or dnp

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I respectfully disagree.  Maybe not quite absurd... but you're approaching that territory.  Definitely further than ambitious.  

- Heinselman is a question mark to even qualify.  2 points would be lucky. 

- The best thing Kinner has done so far is keep it close with Phillipi... joining a list of about 30 guys who have done the same.  Last time out he was handily beaten by Girardi.

- Sasso has a lot to tighten up if he's going to high AA.  

- Romero and Smith need top 6 to score 10 points.  One is unlikely, both definitely not happening.  

- The list of guys that Singletary can't beat is a lot larger than 1.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's a race to 100 points this year. I think Iowa currently has the edge, but PSU is by no means out of the race. I think OHST is far from in that race.

Only being December, it's tough to tell, but it could be that finishing 3rd as a team turns out to be a dogfight. I think Wisconsin or possibly even ASU could overtake them.

 

NOTE: Not that a dual meet has much implication on NCAAs, but ASU travels to OHST for a Monday night match on Jan. 6th. (OHST travels to NEB in early February. That could also give insight.)

Edited by RealAmericanHero

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

2 things that could change if Ohio state decided to make a run.  Kharchla is going to the Sr nationals this weekend.  If he qualifies not a chance of redshirt being pulled. However if he doesn’t you could see Kharchla and echemendia inserted into the line up.  Slim chance for sure but if those two entered you might see Decatur in the line up as well and that could make it interesting. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Scorenomore said:

2 things that could change if Ohio state decided to make a run.  Kharchla is going to the Sr nationals this weekend.  If he qualifies not a chance of redshirt being pulled. However if he doesn’t you could see Kharchla and echemendia inserted into the line up.  Slim chance for sure but if those two entered you might see Decatur in the line up as well and that could make it interesting. 

Is Echemendia eligible this season?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
25 minutes ago, randyfoxwell said:

I believe Echemendia is planning on being a 141 ponder so I cant see him bumping all the way up to 157 

Yeah that’s the rumor though. I didn’t account for any points from him becuase I agree - it doesn’t seem realistic

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, steamboat_charlie v2 said:

I respectfully disagree.  Maybe not quite absurd... but you're approaching that territory.  Definitely further than ambitious.  

- Heinselman is a question mark to even qualify.  2 points would be lucky. 

- The best thing Kinner has done so far is keep it close with Phillipi... joining a list of about 30 guys who have done the same.  Last time out he was handily beaten by Girardi.

- Sasso has a lot to tighten up if he's going to high AA.  

- Romero and Smith need top 6 to score 10 points.  One is unlikely, both definitely not happening.  

- The list of guys that Singletary can't beat is a lot larger than 1.  

Fair points. 

Now I get to say why you are wrong

Heinselman qualified as a true freshman in a deeper weight, both at Big10s and NCAAs. He also scored .5 points  increasing his number by essentially 1 win seems fair.

Kinner hasn’t proven it yet, but if he gets his weight under control this is how I see it. Gerardi vs Kinner was very close until right at the end. This was a gas tank issue due to the cut. This weight isn’t that strong outside of the top few. A random couple of guys will place. I think Kinner is the best of the randoms (10-25 rankings)

Sasso will high AA. His pin loss was flukey. Sure it could happen again but I highly doubt it happens at NCAAs. His only other loss is to a rival stud freshman. His Parriott match was amazing. Parriott is damn good too and I think will AA  

Romero and Smith - you don’t have to be top 6 to score 10 points, but yes it helps. Smith is ranked 13th and has wins over #11 and #6. Romero is ranked 9th, with Anthony Valencia, Lydy, Steiert and Skatska ahead of him. Those are all winnable. 
  
Not everything had to go 100% for tOSU to place 2nd. I am assuming virtually no production at 125, 157, and 184. Sasso could score 25. Hates could pop in at 157 and score 10. Maybe Rocky Jordan at 184 does some damage. What if Decatur is a world beater at 133? Kharchla maybe could make 157. Who knows. A lot can happen, but imo tOSU is heavily underrated 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Don't disagree with where you have things on a high end----if Ohio State has everything go right, they could get to or above 100 points.

The flip side of that is the variance in potential of half of their line-up. So a low estimate for the team would be around 50 points. That makes their range somewhere between 50-100. They could have a good NCAA Tournament and still only get to 75 points. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, Jon_Kozak said:

Don't disagree with where you have things on a high end----if Ohio State has everything go right, they could get to or above 100 points.

The flip side of that is the variance in potential of half of their line-up. So a low estimate for the team would be around 50 points. That makes their range somewhere between 50-100. They could have a good NCAA Tournament and still only get to 75 points. 

75 could get them 2nd if Murin, Lugo, Young, Marinelli, Kemerererererrr, Brands/Wilke, Warner, and Cassiopi all have issues with peaking and whatnot at NCAAs.

Like... to me ONLY Lee and Desanto are for sure Top 4. The other 8 toons in their lineup could place 3 or 4 to not place at all.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I’m a huge fan of Echemendia but throwing him to the wolves in folkstyle at 157 doesn’t make any sense. He’s committed to 65k in freestyle and no way he can hang with guys like Hidlay and Deakin in folk. If he gets taken down he’ll get teched and everybody is gonna put him on bottom at least once a match. I think he’s a legit contender next season at the right weight...but I don’t see him scoring many points for tOSU this year at 157. 

Would be stupid and selfish of Tom Ryan to roll him out there this season. I’m sure he could use more time to adjust to college and academic life and train more freestyle. Pletcher’s a Senior...just let Echemendia redshirt and roll him out next year.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The Buckeyes are a solid team. They have an outside chance at the top 3, but I see a finish closer to 5th place.

tOSU is pretty young with exceptions at 141 & 197. Red Shirts could be pulled at '33 & '65 but I do not see this happening. The best hope for extra points in March would be the return of Hayes at 57. 

Things are going pretty well in Columbus, if a 5th place NCAA finish is a disappointing season. I do look for them to be in the title discussion next season.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, nhs67 said:

75 could get them 2nd if Murin, Lugo, Young, Marinelli, Kemerererererrr, Brands/Wilke, Warner, and Cassiopi all have issues with peaking and whatnot at NCAAs.

Like... to me ONLY Lee and Desanto are for sure Top 4. The other 8 toons in their lineup could place 3 or 4 to not place at all.

You are selling Marinelli, Young and Kemerer WAaaaaaaaY short. Anything short of injury they are AAing and both Marinelli and Kemerer WILL be top 4. 

 

Simply put, your whole premise relies on Iowa completely falling on their face with tOSU going near perfect. That doesn’t even account for Iowa having 7 proven AA’s with tOSU ONLY having 2. 

It is theoretically possible, but I wouldn’t bet on it without some very friendly odds......

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, Cruiser94 said:

The Buckeyes are a solid team. They have an outside chance at the top 3, but I see a finish closer to 5th place.

tOSU is pretty young with exceptions at 141 & 197. Red Shirts could be pulled at '33 & '65 but I do not see this happening. The best hope for extra points in March would be the return of Hayes at 57. 

Things are going pretty well in Columbus, if a 5th place NCAA finish is a disappointing season. I do look for them to be in the title discussion next season.

Someone asked earlier - perhaps you know - any word on Ke-Shawn Hayes?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't see it... the only guys I feel CONFIDENT are going to give Ohio state production are 141 and 197. I'd predict they end up with two aas before 7 (I don't think either is likely, to be clear).  Sasso is a stud but has shown himself to be vulnerable. I put him in "probable AA" category but wouldn't be shocked if he didnt place. Singletary and Kinner are "maybe with the right draw." 157-184 & 125 I haven't seen anything that makes me feel Ohio state is banking any significant points. Just my personal opinion, I understand others may disagree. To me the real question is whether other teams can challenge Ohio State for third. I could definitely see Nebraska sneaking past them.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, MSU158 said:

You are selling Marinelli, Young and Kemerer WAaaaaaaaY short. Anything short of injury they are AAing and both Marinelli and Kemerer WILL be top 4. 

 

Simply put, your whole premise relies on Iowa completely falling on their face with tOSU going near perfect. That doesn’t even account for Iowa having 7 proven AA’s with tOSU ONLY having 2. 

It is theoretically possible, but I wouldn’t bet on it without some very friendly odds......

I thought that the last two years for Merinelli.  Then NCAAs and blammo... short of that.  Believe it when I see it.  I favor Kemerrererrerererererer and Young for placing higher at this point.

I am all aboard the Kemerererererrrr train.  I believe he'll be a true challenger to Hall and very much consider 174 a two horse race.  I just feel it in my jellys that Kemerererrrererererrrerer is fixing to dazzle us.  That being said... injuries have derailed more proven wrestlers.  He hasn't faced anyone of note  or anyone that is considered a real torque-horse.  Brands keeps weighing in at 176 for a reason.

Young?  I am also of the benefit of the doubt mind that he will turn it up.  That being said he just lost to Quincy Monday.  Monday is good.  He isn't going to be in the top half of the podium by any means.  If Monday can beat him, then there are a dozen other toons that can beat him too.  And that is right now.

I don't expect all eight to DNP, I am just saying as high as their ceiling is, their floor is also quite low.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, Housebuye said:

PSU has proven the value of having multiple high point scorers, even if you have holes. 
  
tOSU has the potential to knock off PSU or Iowa. I say or becuase it is unlikely both PSU and Iowa have down performances, but tOSU sneaking ahead of 1 is possible. 
  
125 - unlikely to score much - 2

133 - Kinner is a beast on top and the weight has weakened. If he is managing the cu, he could make a run - 2-10 points 

141 - Pletcher has beaten everyone except for Nick Lee. He even picked up some bonus  22 points  

149 - Sasso could place anywhere from 1 to 7  either way he will pick up some pins and techs. Realistically maybe 18 points or so (3rd + bonus)

157 - hole. Unless echemedia is ready, no points.

165 - pleasant surprises currently ranked to be R12 and has wins over 1 of the other R12 guys, plus McFadden (top 5 guy). 10 points  

174 - similar to 165. Ranked 9th and there are a few guys ahead of him he can beat on the right day. 10 points  

184 - hole. Sucks given how good he was expected to be. Hopefully just a weight thing or Rocky steps in  

197 - 22 points

285 - ranked 8th, but can beat anyone besides Cassar on the right day. Would it be that shocking if he took out Stencel? Hilger? Hall? Cassioppi? Parris? He isn’t beating all of them, but he only needs to take out 1 to move up by a lot of points  he could realistically make the semis with the right draw. I’ll say 10  

with my ambitious but not absurd numbers, we end up with 104 points, 2 champs, and 7 AAs. 
  
Both Iowa and PSU can score over 100, but I think Iowa in particular is at their ceiling points wise (120ish) and will likely score fewer. Iowa can conceivably not score as many points as expected at: 133, 141, 149, 165, 174, 197 and 285. For example, if Cass places 5th, that would be a great showing for him. Lugo isn’t placing 4th. Marinelli has ncaa issues (im picking him to place 3rd), Kem has injury issues (seems to be holding up thankfully but hasn’t faced anyone), and Warner is...Warner. He could place 2nd or dnp

 

I'm not sure you understand how tournament scoring works. For example, a typical R12 guy scores 2-3 points total. You've got Heinselman at 2 points despite saying he won't do much. You have guys like Smith and Romero at the R12 range scoring 10 points (top 4ish scores), which is pretty outlandish. Same at Heavyweight and 133. 

This is a miracle tournament scenario. You could come up with one about every top 10 team, and some of those would actually be more plausible.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
52 minutes ago, nhs67 said:

I thought that the last two years for Merinelli.  Then NCAAs and blammo... short of that.  Believe it when I see it.  I favor Kemerrererrerererererer and Young for placing higher at this point.

I am all aboard the Kemerererererrrr train.  I believe he'll be a true challenger to Hall and very much consider 174 a two horse race.  I just feel it in my jellys that Kemerererrrererererrrerer is fixing to dazzle us.  That being said... injuries have derailed more proven wrestlers.  He hasn't faced anyone of note  or anyone that is considered a real torque-horse.  Brands keeps weighing in at 176 for a reason.

Young?  I am also of the benefit of the doubt mind that he will turn it up.  That being said he just lost to Quincy Monday.  Monday is good.  He isn't going to be in the top half of the podium by any means.  If Monday can beat him, then there are a dozen other toons that can beat him too.  And that is right now.

I don't expect all eight to DNP, I am just saying as high as their ceiling is, their floor is also quite low.

The 165 brackets were BRUTAL the past 2 seasons. This year is not even close. Other than Joseph and  Wick, he is a combined 6-0 against them the last 6 matches, and maybe McFadden, there just isn’t anyone else near his level at 165 this season. 

Kemerer is that good of a wrestler. I get that injuries make you wonder, but he is still 2 for 2 in seasons that count and I expect him to be 3 for 3 very soon. 

Young did the opposite of Deakin last year and I expect him to do the same this year. By many accounts 157 is a tough cut for him and he should peak at the right time again. 

I get the reservations about several guys on Iowa’s squad, but the weight class depth is truly why they are ranked as high as they are. There is NOONE that Lugo can’t beat at 149. Maybe he doesn’t beat everyone, but he doesn’t have to, to take 3rd and can take 6th losing 3 times even.   After that, Cass, Murin and Warner only have a guy or 2 at their weights that are clearly ahead of them. 

I get the skepticism, Iowa hasn’t won in a long time. I just think they have momentum and they really look like a team this year. PSU is still going to be very hard to beat, but I don’t see Iowa losing due to a letdown. If they lose it will be because PSU took it from them. I don’t see any other team being close. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
27 minutes ago, MSU158 said:

The 165 brackets were BRUTAL the past 2 seasons. This year is not even close. Other than Joseph and  Wick, he is a combined 6-0 against them the last 6 matches, and maybe McFadden, there just isn’t anyone else near his level at 165 this season. 

Kemerer is that good of a wrestler. I get that injuries make you wonder, but he is still 2 for 2 in seasons that count and I expect him to be 3 for 3 very soon. 

Young did the opposite of Deakin last year and I expect him to do the same this year. By many accounts 157 is a tough cut for him and he should peak at the right time again. 

I get the reservations about several guys on Iowa’s squad, but the weight class depth is truly why they are ranked as high as they are. There is NOONE that Lugo can’t beat at 149. Maybe he doesn’t beat everyone, but he doesn’t have to, to take 3rd and can take 6th losing 3 times even.   After that, Cass, Murin and Warner only have a guy or 2 at their weights that are clearly ahead of them. 

I get the skepticism, Iowa hasn’t won in a long time. I just think they have momentum and they really look like a team this year. PSU is still going to be very hard to beat, but I don’t see Iowa losing due to a letdown. If they lose it will be because PSU took it from them. I don’t see any other team being close. 

I don't think any team is catching either, either. I was only defending the OP's initial sympathy and merely theorizing.

The only toon I am skeptical about at this point is Lunchbox.

Edited by nhs67
Because

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, uncle bernard said:

I'm not sure you understand how tournament scoring works. For example, a typical R12 guy scores 2-3 points total. You've got Heinselman at 2 points despite saying he won't do much. You have guys like Smith and Romero at the R12 range scoring 10 points (top 4ish scores), which is pretty outlandish. Same at Heavyweight and 133. 

This is a miracle tournament scenario. You could come up with one about every top 10 team, and some of those would actually be more plausible.

You are mistaken. 

Heinsleman went 1-2 as a true freshman, scoring .5 points due to a non bonus win on the backside. For him to score 2 points, he needs to do just slightly better. He could go 2-2 and score 2 points. 
  
10 points is not top 4ish. In fact it’s impossible to place top 3 and score less than 10. 4th is a minimum of 9 points, so likely 10+. 5th is 7, 6th is 6 at a minimum. Add in bonus and those are easily 10 point finishes, especially with an early loss and doing damage on the backside. 
  
 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, lost said:

I don't see it... the only guys I feel CONFIDENT are going to give Ohio state production are 141 and 197. I'd predict they end up with two aas before 7 (I don't think either is likely, to be clear).  Sasso is a stud but has shown himself to be vulnerable. I put him in "probable AA" category but wouldn't be shocked if he didnt place. Singletary and Kinner are "maybe with the right draw." 157-184 & 125 I haven't seen anything that makes me feel Ohio state is banking any significant points. Just my personal opinion, I understand others may disagree. To me the real question is whether other teams can challenge Ohio State for third. I could definitely see Nebraska sneaking past them.

As I said, this is unlikely but possible. 
  
I would bet a lot of money Ohio State outplaces Nebraska. Nebraska is solid, but has no real title threats. They may not have anyone who makes the semis, which means they have to win their R12 matches. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, MSU158 said:

You are selling Marinelli, Young and Kemerer WAaaaaaaaY short. Anything short of injury they are AAing and both Marinelli and Kemerer WILL be top 4. 

 

Simply put, your whole premise relies on Iowa completely falling on their face with tOSU going near perfect. That doesn’t even account for Iowa having 7 proven AA’s with tOSU ONLY having 2. 

It is theoretically possible, but I wouldn’t bet on it without some very friendly odds......

Iowa doesn’t have to totally fall on their face (good Old Testament reference - Parshat Korach). 
  
Young isn’t even ranked top 8 anymore. He isn’t a lock to AA or even close to a lock. 
  
Kemerer, as I said, has to not get injured. That isn’t easy against high level guys, especially up 2 weights. A guy like Labriola isn’t as good as Kem, but might hurt him. I hope they o it Kem on a pitch count. 
  
Marinelli? I want him to win the title. I also have watched his last 2 NCAAs. He has a combination of underperforming and terrible luck. You really are so certain he is top 4? You don’t think it’s possible he loses to say Wick, Cenzo or White in the quarters/semis and then to one of them in the backside? I’m as confident in Marinelli placing top 4 as Isaiah white. It’s likely, but I wouldn’t bet on it

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...