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Housebuye

Ohio State - in the title hunt

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14 minutes ago, Housebuye said:

You are mistaken. 

Heinsleman went 1-2 as a true freshman, scoring .5 points due to a non bonus win on the backside. For him to score 2 points, he needs to do just slightly better. He could go 2-2 and score 2 points. 
  
10 points is not top 4ish. In fact it’s impossible to place top 3 and score less than 10. 4th is a minimum of 9 points, so likely 10+. 5th is 7, 6th is 6 at a minimum. Add in bonus and those are easily 10 point finishes, especially with an early loss and doing damage on the backside. 
  
 

Actually, his 1st part is DEAD on. A r12 guy normally scores 2-3 points. To make the r12, excluding a pig tail match, you either go 2-2 or 3-2.  So you either score 2 advancement points for top bracket wins by making the QF and then losing twice, 1.5 for losing 1st round and then winning 3 in a row before losing again, or you score 2 again by winning your 1st up top, then losing, before winning 2 more and then losing in the R12. So you are only guaranteed 2 points making the r12 and bonus points don’t usually fall off trees for r12ers. With that said Malik has shown himself to IN NO WAY to be a r12er. 

10 points is not quite top 4, but a bunch of guys HAVE scored 10 taking 5th as 5th is only guaranteed 10 pts. 4th is guaranteed 12 pts. 

Edited by MSU158

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36 minutes ago, MSU158 said:

The 165 brackets were BRUTAL the past 2 seasons. This year is not even close. Other than Joseph and  Wick, he is a combined 6-0 against them the last 6 matches, and maybe McFadden, there just isn’t anyone else near his level at 165 this season. 

Kemerer is that good of a wrestler. I get that injuries make you wonder, but he is still 2 for 2 in seasons that count and I expect him to be 3 for 3 very soon. 

Young did the opposite of Deakin last year and I expect him to do the same this year. By many accounts 157 is a tough cut for him and he should peak at the right time again. 

I get the reservations about several guys on Iowa’s squad, but the weight class depth is truly why they are ranked as high as they are. There is NOONE that Lugo can’t beat at 149. Maybe he doesn’t beat everyone, but he doesn’t have to, to take 3rd and can take 6th losing 3 times even.   After that, Cass, Murin and Warner only have a guy or 2 at their weights that are clearly ahead of them. 

I get the skepticism, Iowa hasn’t won in a long time. I just think they have momentum and they really look like a team this year. PSU is still going to be very hard to beat, but I don’t see Iowa losing due to a letdown. If they lose it will be because PSU took it from them. I don’t see any other team being close. 

There is some good info in here, but also some weird takes. 
  
Lugo isn’t placing 3rd. I doubt he places 6th too. Would you pick him against Degan when they wrestle again? I’m not. No chance. He is a fringe AA contender and needs the right draw to win. I do not understand why Iowa fans are so high on him. 
  
Cass, Warner and Murin only have 1 or 2 guys that are clearly ahead of them? I mean, if you want to define this as “guys who will smash them” then it is still wrong.  
 
Cass - because of the Hilger win i guess? Great win for sure, but that match is 50/50. There are a half dozen guys at least who would be 50/50 with him. This isn’t coming from a bad place. I love this guy’s attitude and I hope he pins everyone, but he is has a lot of improvement needed to be considered this good. 
  
Warner - I assume this is based on his win over Brucki. That was a good win for him and he can build off of it, but it was also a last second takedown. Warner also has consistently showed he isn’t a good tournament wrestler. He could absolutely take a lot in the second round of ncaas to a rando. 

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4 minutes ago, MSU158 said:

Actually, his 1st part is DEAD on. A r12 guy normally scores 2-3 points. To make the r12, excluding a pig tail match, you either go 2-2 or 3-2.  So you either score 2 advancement points for top bracket wins by making the QF and then losing twice, 1.5 for losing 1st round and then winning 3 in a row before losing again, or you score 2 again by winning your 1st up top, then losing, before winning 2 more and then losing in the R12. So you are only guaranteed 2 points making the r12 and bonus points don’t usually fall off trees for r12ers. With that said Malik has shown himself to IN NO WAY to be a r12er. 

10 points is not quite top 4, but a bunch of guys HAVE scored 10 taking 5th as 5th is only guaranteed 10 pts. 4th is guaranteed 12 pts. 

R12 can score that. In no way does that negate a R16 guy from scoring that. Or worse. You are totally ignoring bonus points. I didn’t say “r12 doesn’t score 2 or 3” I said there are other ways to score 2 points without making r12. 
  
to your second point - exactly. That’s why he was wrong. 
  
Your points back up my claim.  Not his. 

Edited by Housebuye

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5 hours ago, Housebuye said:

Fair points. 

Now I get to say why you are wrong

Heinselman qualified as a true freshman in a deeper weight, both at Big10s and NCAAs. He also scored .5 points  increasing his number by essentially 1 win seems fair.

Kinner hasn’t proven it yet, but if he gets his weight under control this is how I see it. Gerardi vs Kinner was very close until right at the end. This was a gas tank issue due to the cut. This weight isn’t that strong outside of the top few. A random couple of guys will place. I think Kinner is the best of the randoms (10-25 rankings)

Sasso will high AA. His pin loss was flukey. Sure it could happen again but I highly doubt it happens at NCAAs. His only other loss is to a rival stud freshman. His Parriott match was amazing. Parriott is damn good too and I think will AA  

Romero and Smith - you don’t have to be top 6 to score 10 points, but yes it helps. Smith is ranked 13th and has wins over #11 and #6. Romero is ranked 9th, with Anthony Valencia, Lydy, Steiert and Skatska ahead of him. Those are all winnable. 
  
Not everything had to go 100% for tOSU to place 2nd. I am assuming virtually no production at 125, 157, and 184. Sasso could score 25. Hates could pop in at 157 and score 10. Maybe Rocky Jordan at 184 does some damage. What if Decatur is a world beater at 133? Kharchla maybe could make 157. Who knows. A lot can happen, but imo tOSU is heavily underrated 

I like your optimism, but nothing you said here makes anything I said wrong.  

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2 minutes ago, Housebuye said:

R12 can score that. In no way does that negate a R16 guy from scoring that. Or worse. You are totally ignoring bonus points. I didn’t say “r12 doesn’t score 2 or 3” I said there are other ways to score 2 points without making r12. 
  
to your second point - exactly. That’s why he was wrong. 
  
Your points back up my claim.  Not his. 

I didn’t ignore bonus. In fact I specifically said they don’t fall on trees for r12 caliber guys and, since Malik doesn’t fall into that category his chances of scoring bonus are even less. 

Also, by the usage of “ish” 5th absolutely falls into the category of 4ish, considering it is the VERY next number place.......

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8 minutes ago, Housebuye said:

There is some good info in here, but also some weird takes. 
  
Lugo isn’t placing 3rd. I doubt he places 6th too. Would you pick him against Degan when they wrestle again? I’m not. No chance. He is a fringe AA contender and needs the right draw to win. I do not understand why Iowa fans are so high on him. 
  
Cass, Warner and Murin only have 1 or 2 guys that are clearly ahead of them? I mean, if you want to define this as “guys who will smash them” then it is still wrong.  
 
Cass - because of the Hilger win i guess? Great win for sure, but that match is 50/50. There are a half dozen guys at least who would be 50/50 with him. This isn’t coming from a bad place. I love this guy’s attitude and I hope he pins everyone, but he is has a lot of improvement needed to be considered this good. 
  
Warner - I assume this is based on his win over Brucki. That was a good win for him and he can build off of it, but it was also a last second takedown. Warner also has consistently showed he isn’t a good tournament wrestler. He could absolutely take a lot in the second round of ncaas to a rando. 

This is all about slant I guess. 

 

Lugo can beat ANYONE in that weight class. Yes, I would pick him over Degan. Let’s not act like either of his wins last season were in any way dominant. Both of those were comebacks and he just didn’t come back this time. Also, he relies solely on Lugo’s attacks to generate offense. If Lugo can finish clean early he can continue to wrestle conservative after and win.  He also has a 6-1 win over O’Connor......

Cass-who other than Cassar is clearly ahead of him?  He did just beat the #2 ranked guy at the weight. Do you not understand what clearly ahead means?  It doesn’t mean, can’t lose to and it sure as hell doesn’t mean get smashed by. So there are multiple guys that will smash Cass?  The only other one that may be able to do that is Gable and he isn’t even eligible. 

Warner just beat the #2 guy as well. Other than Moore, who is clearly ahead of him?  How many guys are going to “smash” him?  Hell Moore didn’t even smash him last year winning 5-2. 

Murin , admittedly has more range, but I only see Pletcher, Lee and Demas as clear top guys. After that, Murin can beat anyone in the weight class. 

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2 hours ago, MSU158 said:

This is all about slant I guess. 

 

Lugo can beat ANYONE in that weight class. Yes, I would pick him over Degan. Let’s not act like either of his wins last season were in any way dominant. Both of those were comebacks and he just didn’t come back this time. Also, he relies solely on Lugo’s attacks to generate offense. If Lugo can finish clean early he can continue to wrestle conservative after and win.  He also has a 6-1 win over O’Connor......

Cass-who other than Cassar is clearly ahead of him?  He did just beat the #2 ranked guy at the weight. Do you not understand what clearly ahead means?  It doesn’t mean, can’t lose to and it sure as hell doesn’t mean get smashed by. So there are multiple guys that will smash Cass?  The only other one that may be able to do that is Gable and he isn’t even eligible. 

Warner just beat the #2 guy as well. Other than Moore, who is clearly ahead of him?  How many guys are going to “smash” him?  Hell Moore didn’t even smash him last year winning 5-2. 

Murin , admittedly has more range, but I only see Pletcher, Lee and Demas as clear top guys. After that, Murin can beat anyone in the weight class. 

Clearly ahead I assumed you meant in terms of NCAAs, not current rankings. I have no problem with the current rankings. Cass at 2 or 3 makes sense to me. I am not confident he finishes that high, but he might. 
  
Warner isn’t finishing 2nd. Murin may not even AA. 
  
i think this mostly comes down to slant, as you said. With that said, I’m right and you are wrong

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3 hours ago, Housebuye said:

You are mistaken. 

Heinsleman went 1-2 as a true freshman, scoring .5 points due to a non bonus win on the backside. For him to score 2 points, he needs to do just slightly better. He could go 2-2 and score 2 points. 
  
10 points is not top 4ish. In fact it’s impossible to place top 3 and score less than 10. 4th is a minimum of 9 points, so likely 10+. 5th is 7, 6th is 6 at a minimum. Add in bonus and those are easily 10 point finishes, especially with an early loss and doing damage on the backside. 
  
 

I guess I may have just interpreted your 125 prediction wrong because I assumed you meant something like 0-2/1-2. A 2-2 performance is R16/R12ish which I wouldn't consider nothing out of him. You're right on the 10 points thing. I didn't feel like looking it up which is why I said top 4ish. Considering the two guys we're talking about are incredibly unlikely to place as things stand now, I don't see how you can predict them to score any bonus. Bonus is hard to come by at the national tournament. 

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4 hours ago, Housebuye said:

Iowa doesn’t have to totally fall on their face (good Old Testament reference - Parshat Korach). 
  
Young isn’t even ranked top 8 anymore. He isn’t a lock to AA or even close to a lock. 
  
Kemerer, as I said, has to not get injured. That isn’t easy against high level guys, especially up 2 weights. A guy like Labriola isn’t as good as Kem, but might hurt him. I hope they o it Kem on a pitch count. 
  
Marinelli? I want him to win the title. I also have watched his last 2 NCAAs. He has a combination of underperforming and terrible luck. You really are so certain he is top 4? You don’t think it’s possible he loses to say Wick, Cenzo or White in the quarters/semis and then to one of them in the backside? I’m as confident in Marinelli placing top 4 as Isaiah white. It’s likely, but I wouldn’t bet on it

If you've seen Kemerer this year, it's pretty clear that he isn't "wrestling up." He was making a huge cut to 157 and that likely contributed to his injury problems. He's wrestling at a much more natural weight now.

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Ohio States line up in the second half is probably 

125 Heinselman 

133 Kinner/Decatur

141 Pletcher

149 Sasso

157 Hayes

165 Smith

174 Romero

184 R. Jordan 

197 Moore

HWT Singletary 

Being as realistic as I can be I’d say that team is probably competing for a team trophy at best. Heinselman doesn’t look like he put on any size following last season and based on how he’s looked so far I wouldn’t expect him to score double digit points at NCAA’s. Kinner has shown promise but his weight cut is something that can’t be ignored and I’d dare to say it’s the reason he’s been MIA for the Buckeyes the last few competitions. I’d probably pencil him in as a R12 guy at best. Championship contender at 141 and at 149 I’d say it’s fair to expect AA status but I don’t feel as confident in him winning the title as I did 2 months ago. At 157 Hayes has shown the ability to compete here but this just isn’t his weight class and like 133 he’s probably R12 at best. 165 and 174 I could see both of those guys in the blood round with one of them punching their way through but Smith is in a lot of close matches as is Romero so to expect to get a good chunk of points out of them just isn’t that realistic. One other thing to note about Romero is while he’s clearly improved up at 174 he still has the same issues of finishing takedowns against the top guys that’s not exactly a formula for success in March. Moore is the title favorite and should produce a lot of Ohio States points along with Pletcher but beyond that you have Singletary who’s looked good but maybe is on the outside looking in when it comes to the podium and Rocky Jordan who while looking pretty good his first time up a weight is still an unknown here.

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If Rasheed is healthy, the edge switches to Penn  State.



Probably the single most important piece for PSU this year. A healthy Shak at 197 and PSU wins again.

No Shak or unhealthy Shak and Iowa the favorite.

2 horse race. Enough said..

tOSU, Wisconsin, ASU all fighting for podium


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10 hours ago, uncle bernard said:

I guess I may have just interpreted your 125 prediction wrong because I assumed you meant something like 0-2/1-2. A 2-2 performance is R16/R12ish which I wouldn't consider nothing out of him. You're right on the 10 points thing. I didn't feel like looking it up which is why I said top 4ish. Considering the two guys we're talking about are incredibly unlikely to place as things stand now, I don't see how you can predict them to score any bonus. Bonus is hard to come by at the national tournament. 

Fair enough. 
  
mom being optimistic of course. That’s the point of the post. Malik’s ceiling based on current performance is 2 points imo. That’s all I was saying. With some luck and improvement he could AA, but I’m not predicting that. 
  
Smith and Romero, neither big bonus guys, I think can score 10 on average each. I’m not predicting that it will happen, but I think it is their realistic ceiling unless something crazy happens. Smith in particular, with the right draw, might score even more. If he can pull off another McFadden upset, he could make the semis. I think people are underestimating him. He has jumped levels, is down a weight, and has great guys coaching him. Bo Jordan is with him and Romero everyday, plus Kharchla, Rocky, etc. it’s a good spot to be in.

 

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10 minutes ago, pish6969 said:

 

 


Probably the single most important piece for PSU this year. A healthy Shak at 197 and PSU wins again.

No Shak or unhealthy Shak and Iowa the favorite.

2 horse race. Enough said..

tOSU, Wisconsin, ASU all fighting for podium


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

 

With or without Shak, PSU wins imo. 197 is a crapshoot. Cael and co know how to AA at 197 and Beard is an elite talent. His one loss is looking better and better. That guy is now ranked 12th, and it was highly competitive. I’d pick Beard in the rematch to break the tie. 

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2 hours ago, NYWRESTLER94 said:

Ohio States line up in the second half is probably 

125 Heinselman 

133 Kinner/Decatur

141 Pletcher

149 Sasso

157 Hayes

165 Smith

174 Romero

184 R. Jordan 

197 Moore

HWT Singletary 

Being as realistic as I can be I’d say that team is probably competing for a team trophy at best. Heinselman doesn’t look like he put on any size following last season and based on how he’s looked so far I wouldn’t expect him to score double digit points at NCAA’s. Kinner has shown promise but his weight cut is something that can’t be ignored and I’d dare to say it’s the reason he’s been MIA for the Buckeyes the last few competitions. I’d probably pencil him in as a R12 guy at best. Championship contender at 141 and at 149 I’d say it’s fair to expect AA status but I don’t feel as confident in him winning the title as I did 2 months ago. At 157 Hayes has shown the ability to compete here but this just isn’t his weight class and like 133 he’s probably R12 at best. 165 and 174 I could see both of those guys in the blood round with one of them punching their way through but Smith is in a lot of close matches as is Romero so to expect to get a good chunk of points out of them just isn’t that realistic. One other thing to note about Romero is while he’s clearly improved up at 174 he still has the same issues of finishing takedowns against the top guys that’s not exactly a formula for success in March. Moore is the title favorite and should produce a lot of Ohio States points along with Pletcher but beyond that you have Singletary who’s looked good but maybe is on the outside looking in when it comes to the podium and Rocky Jordan who while looking pretty good his first time up a weight is still an unknown here.

This is a fair assessment, but it doesn’t take much for this to turn into the 2nd place team. 
  
You are understandably suggesting R12 for 133, 157, 165 and 174, but have 1 punching through. If tOSU went 3/4 or 4/4 in this round, you are basically at 100 points (assuming 141, 149 and 197 all score 15-22, and maybe 285 sneaks on the podium too). 
  
In short, it very well may come down to who wins the most r12 matches. Iowa realistically may have 141, 149, 157, 165, 184, and 197 in R12. Cass maybe too. Nebraska is in a similar spot, but I think they lose a bunch of R12 matches. 
  
When I think of R12, recently I think about the Delaveccio vs DeSanto match from 17/18. Desanto had it won and screwed up in the last period. Desanto was clearly way better than delaveccio. Delaveccio though was on a high and then won his next match too vs multiple time AA Scotty Parker. I don’t think he had a win over an AA until that match in his entire career. Crazy things happen I’m R12 and beyond. 

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10 hours ago, uncle bernard said:

If you've seen Kemerer this year, it's pretty clear that he isn't "wrestling up." He was making a huge cut to 157 and that likely contributed to his injury problems. He's wrestling at a much more natural weight now.

He has the size, for sure, but he has not faced anyone remotely good. I expect Kem to smash anyone who isn’t top 10. He is an amazing high volume shooter. 
  
He cannot control getting injured though. We see seniors (yeah he may wrestle next year, but for this argument calling him a senior in terms of wear and tear makes sense) lose your guys they are way better than due to their bodies not holding up. Kem I think is the 2nd best guy and has an outside shot of beating Hall, but I think an injury is possible vs a guy like Labriola, who makes up for minor deficiencies vs the best by turning matches it’s scraps. Lab is not someone I’d want to wrestle if I was concerned about injuries 

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He has the size, for sure, but he has not faced anyone remotely good. I expect Kem to smash anyone who isn’t top 10. He is an amazing high volume shooter. 

  

He cannot control getting injured though. We see seniors (yeah he may wrestle next year, but for this argument calling him a senior in terms of wear and tear makes sense) lose your guys they are way better than due to their bodies not holding up. Kem I think is the 2nd best guy and has an outside shot of beating Hall, but I think an injury is possible vs a guy like Labriola, who makes up for minor deficiencies vs the best by turning matches it’s scraps. Lab is not someone I’d want to wrestle if I was concerned about injuries 

 

 

Housebuy..If projecting I don’t think it’s fair to worry about injuries unless a guy hasn’t taken the mat yet.

 

For example..Kem has looked great. I project him 2 or 3 at worst. I’m not going to hold it against him because he was hurt last year. My eyes tell me he’s healthy now.

 

Shak..hasn’t taken the mat so no one know what he looks like this year..that has me concerned. I’d be shocked if Beard redshirt pulled when you have Shak and Conel as 6th yr seniors. Conel give PSU nothing so if Shak unhealthy or can’t come back, I think it will be Conel and that swings the race drastically unless he has one more magical run. I love the kids courage but I just feel like his body is broken down

 

 

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22 hours ago, Housebuye said:

PSU has proven the value of having multiple high point scorers, even if you have holes. 
  
tOSU has the potential to knock off PSU or Iowa. I say or becuase it is unlikely both PSU and Iowa have down performances, but tOSU sneaking ahead of 1 is possible. 
  
125 - unlikely to score much - 2

133 - Kinner is a beast on top and the weight has weakened. If he is managing the cu, he could make a run - 2-10 points 

141 - Pletcher has beaten everyone except for Nick Lee. He even picked up some bonus  22 points  

149 - Sasso could place anywhere from 1 to 7  either way he will pick up some pins and techs. Realistically maybe 18 points or so (3rd + bonus)

157 - hole. Unless echemedia is ready, no points.

165 - pleasant surprises currently ranked to be R12 and has wins over 1 of the other R12 guys, plus McFadden (top 5 guy). 10 points  

174 - similar to 165. Ranked 9th and there are a few guys ahead of him he can beat on the right day. 10 points  

184 - hole. Sucks given how good he was expected to be. Hopefully just a weight thing or Rocky steps in  

197 - 22 points

285 - ranked 8th, but can beat anyone besides Cassar on the right day. Would it be that shocking if he took out Stencel? Hilger? Hall? Cassioppi? Parris? He isn’t beating all of them, but he only needs to take out 1 to move up by a lot of points  he could realistically make the semis with the right draw. I’ll say 10  

with my ambitious but not absurd numbers, we end up with 104 points, 2 champs, and 7 AAs. 
  
Both Iowa and PSU can score over 100, but I think Iowa in particular is at their ceiling points wise (120ish) and will likely score fewer. Iowa can conceivably not score as many points as expected at: 133, 141, 149, 165, 174, 197 and 285. For example, if Cass places 5th, that would be a great showing for him. Lugo isn’t placing 4th. Marinelli has ncaa issues (im picking him to place 3rd), Kem has injury issues (seems to be holding up thankfully but hasn’t faced anyone), and Warner is...Warner. He could place 2nd or dnp

 

 

15 hours ago, uncle bernard said:

I'm not sure you understand how tournament scoring works. For example, a typical R12 guy scores 2-3 points total. You've got Heinselman at 2 points despite saying he won't do much. You have guys like Smith and Romero at the R12 range scoring 10 points (top 4ish scores), which is pretty outlandish. Same at Heavyweight and 133. 

This is a miracle tournament scenario. You could come up with one about every top 10 team, and some of those would actually be more plausible.

I actually don't know as much about tournament scoring as I probably should, so just read up on it a bit. But I think it's more that the predictions weren't totally clear until the end of the post, where he said that would be 7 AA's, so that's saying that Kinner, Smith, Romero and Singletary will all AA (plus Pletcher, Sasso, Moore).

Basically it seems his predictions are something to the effect of:

Heinselman: R12/R16

Kinner: 7th/8th with some bonus (this was a little confusing because he said 2-10 but based on the 104 total mentioned he was using 10)

Pletcher: Champ with 2 majors or 1 pin (I think that math is right? correct me if I'm wrong)

Sasso: 3rd with a bunch of bonus (this one he was specific on)

157: 0

Smith: 6th-8th plus bonus

Romero: 6th-8th plus bonus

184: 0

197: Champ with 2 majors or 1 pin

285: 6th-8th plus bonus

 

It's definitely best case scenario, but I think most of them are plausible.   I'd say the most far-fetched are Kinner and Heinselman. 

 

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21 minutes ago, teach said:

Teams can be ranked where ever, until PSU loses the NCAA they are by far #1 and anyone being in the hunt is a Christmas miracle.

By far?

 

This post makes little sense.  That being said, I predict PSU wins in March.

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Most of the discussion here is quite logical, good thread and way to clarify points without making it personal. 

The biggest issue with tOSU is that they have no room for error - they need titles out of Pletcher and Moore and some other help and I think that's asking too much.  Pletcher undoubtedly looks great but he went OT against Woods and 2OT against Demas, imo 3rd place may be the safer bet than 1st given the other landmines at the weight.  He doesn't have the separation at the very top that people are giving him.

 

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1 hour ago, Mokoma said:

By far?

 

This post makes little sense.  That being said, I predict PSU wins in March.

I guess what I am saying is, for the last several years we talk about who is the best team but when it comes down to the NCAA tournament PSU seems to win rather easy.  So until that stops happening, I think the "hunt" is for second.  I wish it were different.

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If I’m a betting man I’d put tOSU’s chances of placing ahead of PSU at around 10-15% and at around the same for Iowa.

For both of these things to happen that would put their odds at around 1-2%.

I accept my prognosis could be wrong but that’s how I see their chances of winning a title.

But time will tell I guess.

 

Edited by wamba

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