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Housebuye

Iowa Post Midlands

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Iowa looked great, as expected. 
  
125 - assuming Lee isn’t injured (he isn’t), he is exactly what we thought; on another level than the rest of the field. 24 points to 24 points
  
133 - good performance. He is a title contender. He can lose though, but I doubt anyone is all that surprised. Gross and Rivera are very good. I want to see Desanto vs Rivera. 20 points to 16 points. 
  
141 - Murin did exactly what he was supposed to do. Props. He was a borderline AA and is still a borderline AA. 0-10 points - no change

149 - biggest movement. Props to Lugo. I still don’t think he has a shot at the title, but he went from a fringe AA to a title threat. 0-10 points to 5-20 points. 
  
157 - Good win over #4. Young I still think loses to the top 3 but this bumps him a few points. 5-10 points to 8-15 points. 
  
165 - Marinelli is so good. He always wins Midlands though. Not sure what to make of this. Good work avenging a loss though. Same points. 
  
174 - hopefully a pitch count thing 

 184 - not sure why Wilcke is getting so much love. He solidified the spot in the lineup, but also lost again to Sebastian who isn’t a real AS threat. Not a good performance. Assad is the silver lining of course. He has jumped levels. 
  
197 - not a good performance. Warner still has major cardio issues. Tournaments are not good for him. He isn’t a real finalist threat it seems. He went from 5-15 points to 0-10. 
  
285 - great performance! He is very likely to AA at this point. Before this he had one good win, but now he has proven that wasn’t just 1 good match. 0-10 points to 5-15. 
  
Overall, Iowa improved their standing against PSU and tOSU. I still think Lugo is more likely to dnp than win a title. Warner and Wilcke are liabilities for such a good team. Cass is awesome, and everyone else did their jobs. 
 
PSU still wins the title

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149 went up slightly while 197 went down slightly, the rest are right where I thought they were at least. Iowa has a very solid team this year and next, good work by team brands to make this happen.

Marinelli is a beast. I am still surprised that he has placed 6/7 to date as I believe he could have easily won it at least last year. Speaks to how deep 165 has been for several years now. 

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The team is about as good as any team we’ve seen the last decade and could make a run at the scoring record in 2021 if healthy. Extremely low bust rate from the recruiting staff the past few year, so props there.  The only pleasure I can take in any of this is knowing the 2021 national championship will be won without any wrestlers from the state of Iowa.  And this year’s team only has Wilcke, who has graciously assumed the role as team/fan punching bag

Tough times for a Hawkeye hater, but 2022 isn’t far off.  I’m not a huge believer in this next wave (Ybarra, Schreiver, Teasdale, Henson, Reyna, Kennedy Rathjen, etc.) to adequately supplement Cass and Assad.   Of course, 3-5 transfers could change all that. 

Hope this year’s PSU team can at least make it an even decade for a winless Brands, but I think it would take a historic collapse for that to happen - the likes of which we haven’t seen since the Tom Ryan disaster of 2018. 

Edited by LemonPie

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It is quite possible assuming murin, lugo, young and warner all end up on the low end of the podium/off of it. They are going to score points in spades at 125, 133, 165, 174 and heavy. The other weights could perform very well or not so great, it will be interesting to see how iowa does on Friday which has been their self destruct day the past few ncaas

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1 hour ago, Housebuye said:

Iowa looked great, as expected. 
  
125 - assuming Lee isn’t injured (he isn’t), he is exactly what we thought; on another level than the rest of the field. 24 points to 24 points
  
133 - good performance. He is a title contender. He can lose though, but I doubt anyone is all that surprised. Gross and Rivera are very good. I want to see Desanto vs Rivera. 20 points to 16 points. 
  
141 - Murin did exactly what he was supposed to do. Props. He was a borderline AA and is still a borderline AA. 0-10 points - no change

149 - biggest movement. Props to Lugo. I still don’t think he has a shot at the title, but he went from a fringe AA to a title threat. 0-10 points to 5-20 points. 
  
157 - Good win over #4. Young I still think loses to the top 3 but this bumps him a few points. 5-10 points to 8-15 points. 
  
165 - Marinelli is so good. He always wins Midlands though. Not sure what to make of this. Good work avenging a loss though. Same points. 
  
174 - hopefully a pitch count thing 

 184 - not sure why Wilcke is getting so much love. He solidified the spot in the lineup, but also lost again to Sebastian who isn’t a real AS threat. Not a good performance. Assad is the silver lining of course. He has jumped levels. 
  
197 - not a good performance. Warner still has major cardio issues. Tournaments are not good for him. He isn’t a real finalist threat it seems. He went from 5-15 points to 0-10. 
  
285 - great performance! He is very likely to AA at this point. Before this he had one good win, but now he has proven that wasn’t just 1 good match. 0-10 points to 5-15. 
  
Overall, Iowa improved their standing against PSU and tOSU. I still think Lugo is more likely to dnp than win a title. Warner and Wilcke are liabilities for such a good team. Cass is awesome, and everyone else did their jobs. 
 
PSU still wins the title

 

Lee will win easy. Like you said, 24 points. Maybe more. Good chance more.

Desanto is exactly what we thought, a title threat. Iowa still drops a very small amount based on Teasdale NOT being anything like what some fans thought. He's miles away.

Murin is about what we thought. 

149 is a bump UP for Iowa. Turns out they have three tough guys. I don't see Lugo as a titleist even after this weekend. O'Connor didn't look great in his semi final, so a win over him is hardly shocking. There are better 149's out there even in a down year. 

Young is in the 5 to 8 range. He's treading water while others are getting better, guys like Carr, Coleman and a couple others. By March he is 5 to 8. 

Marinelli is a title threat, but we knew that.

Kem is in the 2-4 range. He is not beating Hall no matter what some Iowa fans believe. Could beat anyone else, but could lose to a Kutler. 

I never bought into Nelson Brands for 2020. I think somehow they find a way to make sure he is the guy over Wilcke. He won't AA. 

Warner looked slow footed last night. He seems to wear out in tournaments. Anywhere from 3 to 8. 

Cassioppi is their biggest upside surprise this year. Much better than expected. 2-5 range come NCAA tournament.

 

1 hour ago, LemonPie said:

Hope this year’s PSU team can at least make it an even decade for a winless Brands, but I think it would take a historic collapse for that to happen - the likes of which we haven’t seen since the Tom Ryan disaster of 2018. 

Have faith. If Cael has 80 percent of what Brands has the fight is still a toss up. 

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6 hours ago, Perry said:

149 went up slightly while 197 went down slightly, the rest are right where I thought they were at least. Iowa has a very solid team this year and next, good work by team brands to make this happen.

Marinelli is a beast. I am still surprised that he has placed 6/7 to date as I believe he could have easily won it at least last year. Speaks to how deep 165 has been for several years now. 

I really want Marinelli to win the title this year. He seems like a good guy and is a super hard worker. Add in all the Eli stuff and he is hard to root against.

i wouldn’t bet on it though. For whatever reason, he struggles at NCAAs. He hasn’t taken any bad losses at NCAAs, but he legitimately lost. It’s not a tournament thing. He always wins Midlands. 
  
Id pick him against anyone head to head, but if he has to beat Wick, Cenzo and McFadden he is likely to take a loss

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3 hours ago, Housebuye said:

I really want Marinelli to win the title this year. He seems like a good guy and is a super hard worker. Add in all the Eli stuff and he is hard to root against.

i wouldn’t bet on it though. For whatever reason, he struggles at NCAAs. He hasn’t taken any bad losses at NCAAs, but he legitimately lost. It’s not a tournament thing. He always wins Midlands. 
  
Id pick him against anyone head to head, but if he has to beat Wick, Cenzo and McFadden he is likely to take a loss

I agree 100%, marinelli is my favorite hawk followed closely by Lee. Both guys seem like very good men and are easy to root for. Marinelli hasn't suffered a bad loss at ncaas but he does seem to flounder out a little there. I wonder if his aggressive style plays against him when each of his opponents are so tough. Reminds me of metcalf at worlds. Can beat anyone but drains himself out as well (and in metcalf case his opponents as well as they only had 30ish mins of rest and had to go again and generally lost). I would like to see marinelli go out on top this year but he will have plenty of competition 

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1 hour ago, Perry said:

I agree 100%, marinelli is my favorite hawk followed closely by Lee. Both guys seem like very good men and are easy to root for. Marinelli hasn't suffered a bad loss at ncaas but he does seem to flounder out a little there. I wonder if his aggressive style plays against him when each of his opponents are so tough. Reminds me of metcalf at worlds. Can beat anyone but drains himself out as well (and in metcalf case his opponents as well as they only had 30ish mins of rest and had to go again and generally lost). I would like to see marinelli go out on top this year but he will have plenty of competition 

Metcalf vs Mohammadi (sp?) I think in 2015 was 1 v 2 in the world. Super tight match. Then mihammadi is crushing a world medalist and gets pinned. 
  
Metcalf was a serious gold threat but didn’t place. Sucked 

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23 hours ago, hammerlockthree said:

Wrong. This is the first year Iowa came out of the gate with comparable talent. 

Agreed. When has Cael only had 80% of what Brands has had?  Hell, when have the y even had an equal amount?  You would have to go back to his time at ISU and how did that go again?

Cael IS the best HC in DI. That is not debatable. However, let’s not just give him credit for something he has NEVER done. 

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On 12/31/2019 at 5:54 PM, hammerlockthree said:

There is no analysis to your analysis, it applies to everyone. Who exactly are you gonna pick to run that gauntlet(exchange name for marinelli of course)? 

I agree with your post above about Brands and Sanderson (and think that Brands is a better coach than many posters here give him credit for) but disagree on this. With great respect to Marinelli but being blunt about his NCAA track record vs Joseph's, I think you would definitely pick Joseph to run this year's 165 gauntlet over the rest.

He's made three finals in three years, and won twice, with extraordinary performances, once by fall and once in dominant fashion, over a 4× finalist 2× champ.

The two years he won were pretty good gauntlets. 2017 Lewis/Massa (a much different and better Massa than the next two years, more like the guy we saw last week)/IMar; 2018 White/McFadden/IMar.  Won lots of different kinds of matches.

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On 12/31/2019 at 6:54 PM, hammerlockthree said:

There is no analysis to your analysis, it applies to everyone. Who exactly are you gonna pick to run that gauntlet(exchange name for marinelli of course)? 

You think Marinelli has done as well at NCAAs as Wick or Cenzo? It doesn’t equally apply to everyone. Both those guys have outplayed Marinelli twice in the same bracket. 

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52 minutes ago, Housebuye said:

You think Marinelli has done as well at NCAAs as Wick or Cenzo? It doesn’t equally apply to everyone. Both those guys have outplayed Marinelli twice in the same bracket. 

That is definitely a metric that shouldn't be ignored.  But, it is NOT the only metric.  It's not like Marinelli has made it to the NCAA's and then fell on his face. 

Year 1:  As a freshman he made the semis and then lost a competitive match to a 4 time Finalist, as a considerable underdog.  His very next match was his 1st time wrestling Wick.  He was NOT ready for his unorthodox style and he got creamed.  However, he has proven to have adjusted to him by winning every time since, which is almost as many times since as George Foreman has children.  His final loss that season was to the #2 seeded McFadden, also the 1st time he faced him.  He has since beaten him convincingly.

Year 2:  As a sophomore he gets the 1 seed and gets rewarded with an inarguably difficult draw.  As such, he gets Lewis in the quarters. Note: EVERYONE in that bracket was losing to Lewis that tournament.  He loses a very tight match.  As his reward he gets Massa in the R12 and then Marsteller immediately after.  Marsteller goes on to avenge his top bracket loss to Wick and takes 3rd.  

None of the above strongly favors him faulting at NCAA's this season.  He has shown he keeps beating Wick and just beat McFadden.  He has beaten Joseph every time they have wrestled each other.    165 is also much thinner this year than the past 2 seasons.  I still think Joseph can beat him, but I would be thoroughly surprised if he loses to anyone else that is currently wrestling 165.............

 

Edited by MSU158

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5 hours ago, MSU158 said:

That is definitely a metric that shouldn't be ignored.  But, it is NOT the only metric.  It's not like Marinelli has made it to the NCAA's and then fell on his face. 

Year 1:  As a freshman he made the semis and then lost a competitive match to a 4 time Finalist, as a considerable underdog.  His very next match was his 1st time wrestling Wick.  He was NOT ready for his unorthodox style and he got creamed.  However, he has proven to have adjusted to him by winning every time since, which is almost as many times since as George Foreman has children.  His final loss that season was to the #2 seeded McFadden, also the 1st time he faced him.  He has since beaten him convincingly.

Year 2:  As a sophomore he gets the 1 seed and gets rewarded with an inarguably difficult draw.  As such, he gets Lewis in the quarters. Note: EVERYONE in that bracket was losing to Lewis that tournament.  He loses a very tight match.  As his reward he gets Massa in the R12 and then Marsteller immediately after.  Marsteller goes on to avenge his top bracket loss to Wick and takes 3rd.  

None of the above strongly favors him faulting at NCAA's this season.  He has shown he keeps beating Wick and just beat McFadden.  He has beaten Joseph every time they have wrestled each other.    165 is also much thinner this year than the past 2 seasons.  I still think Joseph can beat him, but I would be thoroughly surprised if he loses to anyone else that is currently wrestling 165.............

 

Your points give very good context and state a reasonable case for why many/most would view Marinelli as a notch above everyone but Joseph. 

My view is that Joseph is a strong favorite due to being a 3 time finalist and having a record of 14-1 vs 7-4 for Marinelli in NCAAs. 

After that I'm not sure.  Marinelli looks better on paper but has not been nearly as successful at NCAAs as before NCAAs. 

He and Wick is interesting.  I wouldn't be shocked by Wick beating him.  Wick has finished higher both times.  Marinelli has won the last several H2H but not blowouts. Wick never wrestled on top in their prior meeting this year; I think that wouldn't happen at NCAAs, he'd take top. Marinelli hasn't had answers for Wick's ride to date; one turn or an aggressive ref  calling stalling could rack up more points for Wick than Marinelli gets on his feet.  

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8 hours ago, Housebuye said:

You think Marinelli has done as well at NCAAs as Wick or Cenzo? It doesn’t equally apply to everyone. Both those guys have outplayed Marinelli twice in the same bracket. 

I see what you mean now, but don't be obtuse to the fact that Marinelli beats those guys regularly. Also last year Marinelli got beat by the same guy who beat Joseph its a total wash. 

If the argument is that Marinelli turns into a coward come march, I'm not buying it. 

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45 minutes ago, hammerlockthree said:

I see what you mean now, but don't be obtuse to the fact that Marinelli beats those guys regularly. Also last year Marinelli got beat by the same guy who beat Joseph its a total wash. 

If the argument is that Marinelli turns into a coward come march, I'm not buying it. 

I don't think we view him as anything but the opposite of a coward.  For instance I watched him after both his losses last March and both times he kept his head up, kept cheering on teammates, and then wrestled a strong match (against Massa in the blood round and then the 7th place bout).  

I think it's more that he hasn't shown that he has a higher ceiling than, for instance, Joseph, Lewis, and even Wick.  They seem to have been able to find a higher gear at NCAAs, possibly a reflection of style.  Marinelli hasn't dropped a gear -- he always goes hard.  And maybe he will find that higher gear this year. It's just that he hasn't the first two times whereas the other three guys I mentioned (one being OR this year) have in all of their NCAAs.  So if we had to bet we wouldn't pick him to win at this point. 

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11 minutes ago, drag it said:

I don't think we view him as anything but the opposite of a coward.  For instance I watched him after both his losses last March and both times he kept his head up, kept cheering on teammates, and then wrestled a strong match (against Massa in the blood round and then the 7th place bout).  

I think it's more that he hasn't shown that he has a higher ceiling than, for instance, Joseph, Lewis, and even Wick.  They seem to have been able to find a higher gear at NCAAs, possibly a reflection of style.  Marinelli hasn't dropped a gear -- he always goes hard.  And maybe he will find that higher gear this year. It's just that he hasn't the first two times whereas the other three guys I mentioned (one being OR this year) have in all of their NCAAs.  So if we had to bet we wouldn't pick him to win at this point. 

Fair enough. I am just hostile to the perspective because any fool can drop the "couldn't get it done in march" argument. John Smith was also a choker after his first 2 NCAAs.

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10 hours ago, hammerlockthree said:

I see what you mean now, but don't be obtuse to the fact that Marinelli beats those guys regularly. Also last year Marinelli got beat by the same guy who beat Joseph its a total wash. 

If the argument is that Marinelli turns into a coward come march, I'm not buying it. 

I never would call Marinelli a coward. I have a huge amount of respect for him. 
  
He beats those guys regularly during the regular season. He hasn’t beaten any of them during ncaas. He is 0-1 against both Wick and McFadden at NCAAs.

  
it isn’t a wash. NCAAs timing matters. Marinelli doesn’t do well late in the tournament. He is 0-2 in the quarter finals. He is 2-5 from the quarters onwards. Cenzo is 8-1. Cenzo has proven he performs well late in the tournament. Marinelli has done the opposite.

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32 minutes ago, Housebuye said:

I never would call Marinelli a coward. I have a huge amount of respect for him. 
  
He beats those guys regularly during the regular season. He hasn’t beaten any of them during ncaas. He is 0-1 against both Wick and McFadden at NCAAs.

  
it isn’t a wash. NCAAs timing matters. Marinelli doesn’t do well late in the tournament. He is 0-2 in the quarter finals. He is 2-5 from the quarters onwards. Cenzo is 8-1. Cenzo has proven he performs well late in the tournament. Marinelli has done the opposite.

He is 0-2 in the quarterfinals?  You sure about that?

Also, AAing BOTH times DOES NOT show he performs the "opposite" of well.  It shows that he is wrestling the toughest opponents at that time.  As a freshman he was ONLY  the 5 seed.  Let's not forget that.  He took 6th.

Last season he simply had the bad luck of hitting the Champ in the quarterfinals and then Marsteller in the consi 4's.

With that said, yes I would favor Joseph in that tournament setting.  He has shown to be his absolute best, however Marinelli is NOT losing to the same people at NCAA's each season.  In fact, he has wrestled and beaten those guys every time since.

I normally don't like to make bets, but I am to that point now.  I will make you a bet, excepting obvious injury, that Marinelli does NOT lose to anyone in the NCAA Tournament other than possibly Joseph.  You in?

Edited by MSU158

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2 hours ago, Housebuye said:

I never would call Marinelli a coward. I have a huge amount of respect for him. 
  
He beats those guys regularly during the regular season. He hasn’t beaten any of them during ncaas. He is 0-1 against both Wick and McFadden at NCAAs.

  
it isn’t a wash. NCAAs timing matters. Marinelli doesn’t do well late in the tournament. He is 0-2 in the quarter finals. He is 2-5 from the quarters onwards. Cenzo is 8-1. Cenzo has proven he performs well late in the tournament. Marinelli has done the opposite.

Yeah so he's mentally weak? 

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3 minutes ago, hammerlockthree said:

Yeah so he's mentally weak? 

I highly doubt that.  I don’t know why he doesn’t have success late at NCAAs. My best guess would be his aggressively physical style wears him down. He clearly can win tournaments, as he tends to do well at Midlands and Big10s. As good as those tournaments are, they aren’t the same as NCAAs.

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4 minutes ago, Housebuye said:

I highly doubt that.  I don’t know why he doesn’t have success late at NCAAs. My best guess would be his aggressively physical style wears him down. He clearly can win tournaments, as he tends to do well at Midlands and Big10s. As good as those tournaments are, they aren’t the same as NCAAs.

Alright. That could be it. I guess I think the reasons for Marinelli's dearth of success and others abundance are a little more arbitrary than you. 

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2 hours ago, MSU158 said:

He is 0-2 in the quarterfinals?  You sure about that?

Also, AAing BOTH times DOES NOT show he performs the "opposite" of well.  It shows that he is wrestling the toughest opponents at that time.  As a freshman he was ONLY  the 5 seed.  Let's not forget that.  He took 6th.

Last season he simply had the bad luck of hitting the Champ in the quarterfinals and then Marsteller in the consi 4's.

With that said, yes I would favor Joseph in that tournament setting.  He has shown to be his absolute best, however Marinelli is NOT losing to the same people at NCAA's each season.  In fact, he has wrestled and beaten those guys every time since.

I normally don't like to make bets, but I am to that point now.  I will make you a bet, excepting obvious injury, that Marinelli does NOT lose to anyone in the NCAA Tournament other than possibly Joseph.  You in?

In 2018 he did lose in the semis. You are right. That may strengthen my argument though. He fades against the best competition late in the tournament. It sucks because it isn’t due to lack of preparation, wrestling skill, or effort. 
 

I don’t like that somehow I am the Marinelli hater now. I want him to win the title. I do not think he will, but it’s certainly possible. He is the favorite against the current field in any one off match. I didn’t even consider betting against him. 
  
I am definitely not taking a bet that he only loses to Cenzo. If you want to bet he wins the title and I bet the field wins, I’m game. No exceptions for injury or anything else, once the tournament starts (if he can’t compete, bet is off. If he shows up to his first match, bet is on.) Your  proposal is removing one of the main threats to Marinelli. It sounds like you are doubting his ability to win too. 

i don’t want to put anything real on the line, as I’ll be rooting for Marinelli in most matches. Want to say losing makes a $10 Donation to the Hawkeye wrestling club? 
  

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