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Wrestlingfan1997

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He'd be favored against everyone in the top 10 EXCEPT Desanto, Gross and Rivera. 

The other top 10 guys he has history with are 1-0 vs Phillippi, 1-0 vs Farro, and 2 freestyle and 1 folkstyle win over Chaz Tucker. He was 1-1 last year with Luke Pletcher who is now at 141.

Can he win? He'd have to win consecutive matches against 2 of the three guys ranked ahead of him. Possible? Yeah, anything's possible. However, he'd be a prohibitive underdog to pull that off.

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I would say the odds of him making the finals are slim and none and slim just went on an extended vacation.  Still, if he is going to do it, he better do it this season.  The top 3 guys are all redshirting(Suriano, Fix and Micic) and #4(Pletcher) bumped up to 141.  With the top 3 returning next season, along with DeSanto and possibly Rivera, his chances almost certainly go even further down.......

Edited by MSU158

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A shot... absolutely.

A realistic shot, i.e. one that is 25% or greater, I don't think so. 

Gross and Desanto are next level this year for the weight class, and Seabass is right there with them.  RBY takes 4th.  The rankings are right in my opinion.

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17 hours ago, TBar1977 said:

He'd be favored against everyone in the top 10 EXCEPT Desanto, Gross and Rivera. 

The other top 10 guys he has history with are 1-0 vs Phillippi, 1-0 vs Farro, and 2 freestyle and 1 folkstyle win over Chaz Tucker. He was 1-1 last year with Luke Pletcher who is now at 141.

Can he win? He'd have to win consecutive matches against 2 of the three guys ranked ahead of him. Possible? Yeah, anything's possible. However, he'd be a prohibitive underdog to pull that off.

A lot will depend on how he does at Big10s. He could end up seeded 4th, which likely means he only has to beat 1 of them. 
  
crazier things have happened. I’d say RBY will end up top 4, with a 25% chance of making the finals and maybe a 10% chance of winning it all. 
  
he is in play, but an underdog for sure. Probably has about the same likelihood of winning as Lugo

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16 hours ago, treep2000 said:

A shot... absolutely.

A realistic shot, i.e. one that is 25% or greater, I don't think so. 

Gross and Desanto are next level this year for the weight class, and Seabass is right there with them.  RBY takes 4th.  The rankings are right in my opinion.

The chances of the semis being the top 4 seeds is pretty low. RBY is more likely to win a title than for semis to be 1 v 4 and 2 v 3 in my opinion. 

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43 minutes ago, Housebuye said:

The chances of the semis being the top 4 seeds is pretty low. RBY is more likely to win a title than for semis to be 1 v 4 and 2 v 3 in my opinion. 

Interesting take.  The top 4 seeds made the semis at 3/10 weights last year.  Would you put RBY at higher than 30% odds to win a title this year?  I certainly would not.  

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18 hours ago, treep2000 said:

A shot... absolutely.

A realistic shot, i.e. one that is 25% or greater, I don't think so. 

Gross and Desanto are next level this year for the weight class, and Seabass is right there with them.  RBY takes 4th.  The rankings are right in my opinion.

Never know what will happen at NCAAs, though, regardless of how good we think these guys are. Remember Rasheed, 25-2 #2 seed, went out and embarrassingly lost twice. How about Ben Askren, 28-2 #1 seed, didn't win a match. Weird **** happens. I agree RBY has a low chance of winning, but he's got a chance. 

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12 minutes ago, TobusRex said:

Never know what will happen at NCAAs, though, regardless of how good we think these guys are. Remember Rasheed, 25-2 #2 seed, went out and embarrassingly lost twice. How about Ben Askren, 28-2 #1 seed, didn't win a match. Weird **** happens. I agree RBY has a low chance of winning, but he's got a chance. 

Ben Askren?  Did you mean Max Askren?

 

In Max's defense, that was his RSFR year and his 1st time at the Big Dance.  He still wrestled in a time when freshmen were truly awed by that tournament and most simply had no way to get ready for it.  Only very recently have freshmen more consistently came into March almost fully prepared for it.  There simply is nothing like it.  That is what made what Pat Smith and Sanderson accomplished so special.  Not until guys truly specialized in wrestling, had constant access to AA's and Champs to train with and access to any/every national tournament there is, were you starting to see guys ready right away and also able to get up for NCAA's 4 years in a row.

Edited by MSU158

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I see him having a similar year to last, but with a higher finish. I could see him taking out one of the top 3 guys in each part of the season. One in a dual, one at Big tens, and another at NCAAs. Dont think/know if he can beat any of them more than once though. If he wound up between 2-4 at NCAAs I am not shocked at all. I believe he will win one before he graduates. Probably a multiple time finalist imo. 

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41 minutes ago, MSU158 said:

Ben Askren?  Did you mean Max Askren?

 

In Max's defense, that was his RSFR year and his 1st time at the Big Dance.  He still wrestled in a time when freshmen were truly awed by that tournament and most simply had no way to get ready for it.  Only very recently have freshmen more consistently came into March almost fully prepared for it.  There simply is nothing like it.  That is what made what Pat Smith and Sanderson accomplished so special.  Not until guys truly specialized in wrestling, had constant access to AA's and Champs to train with and access to any/every national tournament there is, were you starting to see guys ready right away and also able to get up for NCAA's 4 years in a row.

Doh! Yup, definitely meant Max, not Ben. Seemed like a really good guy as well. Regarding FR being ready for NCAAs, spot on assessment. It used to be a big deal when a FR made AA, let alone the finals or winning the whole thing. I think that Pat Smith might've been ready because he had two older brothers who were champs in their own right and he was tussling with those guys at home for years :D 

Edited by TobusRex

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