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Jimmy Cinnabon

If Iowa doesn't win NCAAs this year will it be the biggest FLOP ever?

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Iowa is absolutely loaded this and EVERYONE is predicting they win NCAAs, in some cases by 50+ points over the second place team.  Penn State, who started the season as their biggest rival, has been decimated by injuries.  Berge, Rasheed, Conel and Cassar.  This group, if healthy, would have likely yielded 3 AAs in Berge, Rasheed and Cassar and a definite finalist in Cassar.  Berge has only seen 1 dual all season and continues to recover from a concussion months ago, Conel and Cassar are done for the year and Rasheed is only recently back but again is an undersized 197 pounder.

Iowa has their 10 guys ranked as follows:

125 - #1

133 - #2

141 - #8

149 - #1

157 - #6

165 - #2

174 - #2

184 - #7

197 - #6

HWT - #3

 

By comparison this is Penn State:

125 - unranked, won't qualify for NCAAs

133 - #3

141 - #2

149 - unranked

157 - #4, but has only wrestled 1 match this year

165 - #1

174 - #1

184 - #6

197 - #19

HWT - unranked

So Penn State is only projected to have 4/10 or 5/10 AAs, assuming Berge can get healthy.  And 3 finalists.  I have a hard time seeing Penn State qualifying/scoring any points at 125, 149 and 157.

That is projected 10/10 AAs and 5 finalists, 2 champs by seed alone.  Average ranking is #4.  Has a team ever been more loaded?  I say no.  So if Iowa *somehow* doesn't come home with a title in March...would it be the biggest FLOP ever?

 

I say yes.

Edited by Jimmy Cinnabon

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It would be a huge upset no doubt. The biggest ever? IDK

If Iowa did lose, what would be a year it is competing with for the biggest flop?

I know one year Minnesota was a favorite and lost, but I don't remember what year it was for sure. Maybe OSU's first one in their run in 2003. Minnesota was the defending champs. Becker did not repeat, Garrett Lowney DNP, while Roshalt won it as the 10 seed. 

1997 NCAA's Iowa wasn't ranked first since they lost the dual against OSU. That was probably the season with the most unpredictable finish. Every Iowa wrestler finished at or above their seed.

1987 was the year Iowa St. broke Iowa's streak of 9. I don't know what the season looked like or how big of an upset it was though. 

As exciting as the NCAA tourney is, it doesn't have too many unpredictable finishes. When you have 9-10 wrestlers going for every top team, even if one of the wrestlers underperforms, there is a regression towards the mean from all the other guys. I can't think of an overall collapse from a heavy favorite. Maybe our historians on the site could prove me wrong here?
 

Edited by russelscout

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5 hours ago, pamela said:

I don’t think it will matter either way. A lot of the top guys are RS, wrestling a shorter season or training to peak after NCAAs because of the Olympics. People know it’s kind of a weird season.

Lets assume all the redshirted guys were in. Would Iowa not be favored right now?

Edited by russelscout

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35 minutes ago, russelscout said:



1987 was the year that Iowa St. broke Iowa's streak of 9. I don't really know what the season looked like or how big of an upset that was. 

Kelly with the spladle permanently ingrained in my memory.

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6 minutes ago, russelscout said:

Lets assume that all the redshirted guys were in there. Would Iowa not be favored right now?

I don’t know, but it would probably change the dynamic of the season and make it less anomalous. Point is that I don’t think this season would be the biggest flop. 

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I know I am not suppose to predict PSU because this is all fun but......  I really feel like PSU is currently like IOWA use to be.  No matter how much I feel IOWA will knock them off, PSU will find a way to get it done.  Guys will wrestle above their seeds and many of us will be shocked.  The entire season is just to prepare for that tournament, so all things happening now mean little to them.  So would it be the biggest FLOP ever, NO, it wouldn't even be a flop.  

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34 minutes ago, pamela said:

I don’t know, but it would probably change the dynamic of the season and make it less anomalous. Point is that I don’t think this season would be the biggest flop. 

That doesn’t have any impact on saying it would be the biggest flop.  I don’t know what other years are options to be answers here, but I’d have to think if Iowa doesn’t win it will be up there.

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27 minutes ago, teach said:

I know I am not suppose to predict PSU because this is all fun but......  I really feel like PSU is currently like IOWA use to be.  No matter how much I feel IOWA will knock them off, PSU will find a way to get it done.  Guys will wrestle above their seeds and many of us will be shocked.  The entire season is just to prepare for that tournament, so all things happening now mean little to them.  So would it be the biggest FLOP ever, NO, it wouldn't even be a flop.  

Penn State may have guys wrestle above their seeds, but the problem is they won't even qualify guys at 125 and 157 (unless Berge comes back healthy).  It is also up in the air if they qualify 149 and 197, again depending on Shak's health.

Guys like Nick Lee, Joseph and Hall don't really have room to improve over their seeds.  RBY I don't see finishing higher than 3rd.  Brooks and Nevills have the most upside potential.  If Iowa wrestles TO seed and PSU wrestles above seed I think Iowa still wins on strength of 10 AAs versus PSU only having 4 or 5.

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59 minutes ago, teach said:

I know I am not suppose to predict PSU because this is all fun but......  I really feel like PSU is currently like IOWA use to be.  No matter how much I feel IOWA will knock them off, PSU will find a way to get it done.  Guys will wrestle above their seeds and many of us will be shocked.  The entire season is just to prepare for that tournament, so all things happening now mean little to them.  So would it be the biggest FLOP ever, NO, it wouldn't even be a flop.  

Pretty much what I was thinking.  In no means of any logic would losing to PSU be considered a flop.  I don't care what any ranking service thinks.

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45 minutes ago, unbiased said:

PSU can qualify 125 for Nationals. Why are so many saying he can't?

Because he's 1-3 in duals, and 0-3 in Big Ten duals.  The Big Ten is weak at 125 this year, only 3 ranked in the top 12.  This means the B10 will only get a handful of NCAA qualifying slots at 125.

 

Do you see Meredith placing top 3 or 4 at 125 in the Big 10s?

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1 hour ago, Jimmy Cinnabon said:

Because he's 1-3 in duals, and 0-3 in Big Ten duals.  The Big Ten is weak at 125 this year, only 3 ranked in the top 12.  This means the B10 will only get a handful of NCAA qualifying slots at 125.

 

Do you see Meredith placing top 3 or 4 at 125 in the Big 10s?

 

At first I was going to say I thought he should qualify, but you may be right.  The loss to Cardani of IL hurts, but his other 2 losses are to DeAugustino and Aguilar who are both having good seasons.    He still has 6 more B10 duals which are all winnable except for Iowa.   Or he could lose them all.   

Right now I don't see him finishing higher than 6th in the B10 and even that could be tough (Lee/DeAugustino/Schroder/Aguilar/McKee).  How many 125's do you think the B10 will qualify?

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18 minutes ago, 1032004 said:

 

At first I was going to say I thought he should qualify, but you may be right.  The loss to Cardani of IL hurts, but his other 2 losses are to DeAugustino and Aguilar who are both having good seasons.    He still has 6 more B10 duals which are all winnable except for Iowa.   Or he could lose them all.   

Right now I don't see him finishing higher than 6th in the B10 and even that could be tough (Lee/DeAugustino/Schroder/Aguilar/McKee).  How many 125's do you think the B10 will qualify?

I think the B10 gets 5 or 6 spots at 125.  And I see at least 8 guys in the B10 I would pick higher than Meredith.

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4 hours ago, teach said:

I know I am not suppose to predict PSU because this is all fun but......  I really feel like PSU is currently like IOWA use to be.  No matter how much I feel IOWA will knock them off, PSU will find a way to get it done.  Guys will wrestle above their seeds and many of us will be shocked.  The entire season is just to prepare for that tournament, so all things happening now mean little to them.  So would it be the biggest FLOP ever, NO, it wouldn't even be a flop.  

I agree with this thought about PSU being the new Iowa, always finding a way.  
 

I do think that this would be the biggest flop if Iowa doesn’t win because of what Iowa has done (pulling Assad’s shirt) and their own perception of themselves.  The arrogance is back.

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I think some Iowa wrestlers are ranked too high.

Murin, Lugo, Young, and Assad.

I think nationals will come down to the wire.  

And this isn't my first rodeo.  I've been to 26 of these things in a row, I think.  

I remember the year Okie State was the clear favorite and I was trying to crunch numbers to see how Iowa would win.

The year was 1997, and Iowa broke the record.  

Edited by HoundedHawk

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There are some people that are definitely trying to paint that narrative, but no, Iowa losing to psu wouldnt be a flop. Now if somehow some other team sneaks in and wins it, maybe i could see an arguement. If Iowa wins by over 50, then some other teams flopped though.

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26 minutes ago, Molsen said:

There are some people that are definitely trying to paint that narrative, but no, Iowa losing to psu wouldnt be a flop. Now if somehow some other team sneaks in and wins it, maybe i could see an arguement. If Iowa wins by over 50, then some other teams flopped though.

If PSU still had Cassar and won I don’t think it’d be a flop for Iowa.   But without Cassar I think it would be.

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