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Jimmy Cinnabon

If Iowa doesn't win NCAAs this year will it be the biggest FLOP ever?

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You can't base anything off what things look like in January, rankings could be way different at the start of postseason. 

 

I thought the 1997 OSU team was considered big favorites and lost by 56.5 points, tough to top that.

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I don't see how this team could be seen as an all time flop if they don't win the NCAA tournament. They have exactly one (1) wrestler on their roster who finished in the top 4 at last year's NCAA tournament, with one other wrestler, with a severe injury history, who has finished in the top 4 before.  

It's a wide open year in the weight classes -- where the team points are won. We need to let everyone wrestle and see what happens. 

Penn State has three very possible champs and at least three others with potential top 4 talent (potential talent, I emphasize).  If they are healthy and run that table and several of the Iowa guys who have never been top 4 live up to that history rather than their ranking -- none of which is ridiculous -- then the Iowa big win which many expect (and which I'd probably bet on if I had to) won't happen.

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3 hours ago, drag it said:

I don't see how this team could be seen as an all time flop if they don't win the NCAA tournament. They have exactly one (1) wrestler on their roster who finished in the top 4 at last year's NCAA tournament, with one other wrestler, with a severe injury history, who has finished in the top 4 before.  

It's a wide open year in the weight classes -- where the team points are won. We need to let everyone wrestle and see what happens. 

Penn State has three very possible champs and at least three others with potential top 4 talent (potential talent, I emphasize).  If they are healthy and run that table and several of the Iowa guys who have never been top 4 live up to that history rather than their ranking -- none of which is ridiculous -- then the Iowa big win which many expect (and which I'd probably bet on if I had to) won't happen.

Pretty much this.

I remember speaking to my IA state and OKST friends in the 80's and 90's when Iowa was down in off years and their overall sentiment was "yeah, IA is down but you never count out the "X" defending champ until it's over". 

The reality is, PSU has history behind them. They have performed when it counts. It will be a dog fight till the end.

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9 hours ago, drag it said:

I don't see how this team could be seen as an all time flop if they don't win the NCAA tournament. They have exactly one (1) wrestler on their roster who finished in the top 4 at last year's NCAA tournament, with one other wrestler, with a severe injury history, who has finished in the top 4 before.  

It's a wide open year in the weight classes -- where the team points are won. We need to let everyone wrestle and see what happens. 

Penn State has three very possible champs and at least three others with potential top 4 talent (potential talent, I emphasize).  If they are healthy and run that table and several of the Iowa guys who have never been top 4 live up to that history rather than their ranking -- none of which is ridiculous -- then the Iowa big win which many expect (and which I'd probably bet on if I had to) won't happen.

Lol talk about misleading data.

1) That “one” will likely be the top point scorer in the tournament

2) The one with a “severe injury history” has finished 3rd and 4th.  If he gets hurt then I’ll take away the “biggest flop” Label, if not he should probably be in the finals

3) They have 2 guys who finished 5th last year (Young and DeSanto), so just outside your “top 4”, with DeSanto of course being a strong finalist contender.

4) Then you have Marinelli who is undefeated against one of PSU’s “very possible champs” but had arguably the worst draw of all time last year. 

5.  They have 2 other returning AA’s (Lugo and Warner), with Warner Aa’ig as a freshman and Lugo having beaten the top returner from last year.   

6.  They have 2 very good freshman, with Cass a strong possibility for a top 4 finish and Assad already having some ranked wins.   But yes I wouldn’t be surprised to see Assad off the podium.  The only other guy I wouldn’t be surprised to see off the podium is Murin.

PSU still has a good team, but if Iowa doesn’t win it will be a huge disappointment for them IMO.

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This is a picture that PSU fans want to paint so if they lose a close one to Iowa, they can say it is a success. Yes, we all agree Iowa is the favorite, but losing to Penn State in the midst of their dynasty would not be the biggest flop ever. PSU could very well end up with 3 champions and 5 other AAs. Iowa could very well end up with one champ and 7 other AAs. In that scenario, Penn State wins. Cael is not giving up on this season and will have his guys ready to. I’d pick Iowa in a close one but won’t be surprised if PSU pulls it off. It’s just amazing to me how a fan base can so easily give up on an all time great coach

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6 hours ago, 1032004 said:

Lol talk about misleading data.

1) That “one” will likely be the top point scorer in the tournament

2) The one with a “severe injury history” has finished 3rd and 4th.  If he gets hurt then I’ll take away the “biggest flop” Label, if not he should probably be in the finals

3) They have 2 guys who finished 5th last year (Young and DeSanto), so just outside your “top 4”, with DeSanto of course being a strong finalist contender.

4) Then you have Marinelli who is undefeated against one of PSU’s “very possible champs” but had arguably the worst draw of all time last year. 

5.  They have 2 other returning AA’s (Lugo and Warner), with Warner Aa’ig as a freshman and Lugo having beaten the top returner from last year.   

6.  They have 2 very good freshman, with Cass a strong possibility for a top 4 finish and Assad already having some ranked wins.   But yes I wouldn’t be surprised to see Assad off the podium.  The only other guy I wouldn’t be surprised to see off the podium is Murin.

PSU still has a good team, but if Iowa doesn’t win it will be a huge disappointment for them IMO.

Agreed. This would be hugely embarrassing for Iowa at this point. If PSU still had Cassar, I think an Iowa loss wouldn’t be nearly as bad. 
  
with that in mind, this is assuming Iowa doesn’t have a major injury. If Kemerer, Desanto, Lee etc can’t show up to ncaas, it wouldn’t be super shocking if they lost (although they will still be the favorite)

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2 hours ago, Eagle26 said:

This is a picture that PSU fans want to paint so if they lose a close one to Iowa, they can say it is a success. Yes, we all agree Iowa is the favorite, but losing to Penn State in the midst of their dynasty would not be the biggest flop ever. PSU could very well end up with 3 champions and 5 other AAs. Iowa could very well end up with one champ and 7 other AAs. In that scenario, Penn State wins. Cael is not giving up on this season and will have his guys ready to. I’d pick Iowa in a close one but won’t be surprised if PSU pulls it off. It’s just amazing to me how a fan base can so easily give up on an all time great coach

I don’t think that’s fair. PSU fans will be extremely disappointed if they lose. They expect their team to perform. Multiple times in the past 8 wins of theirs, they were underdogs or at least not heavy favorites. PSU overperforms at NCAAs and scored enough bonus to get them the win. That is what PSU fans expect and anything else will be disappointing. 
  
there is no moral victory for a dynasty in the middle of their dynasty, except in extreme cases (like when they redshirted their entire team - totally fair for PSU fans to not expect their team to win that year, whether they agreed with the decision or not)

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11 hours ago, 1032004 said:

Lol talk about misleading data.

1) That “one” will likely be the top point scorer in the tournament

2) The one with a “severe injury history” has finished 3rd and 4th.  If he gets hurt then I’ll take away the “biggest flop” Label, if not he should probably be in the finals

3) They have 2 guys who finished 5th last year (Young and DeSanto), so just outside your “top 4”, with DeSanto of course being a strong finalist contender.

4) Then you have Marinelli who is undefeated against one of PSU’s “very possible champs” but had arguably the worst draw of all time last year. 

5.  They have 2 other returning AA’s (Lugo and Warner), with Warner Aa’ig as a freshman and Lugo having beaten the top returner from last year.   

6.  They have 2 very good freshman, with Cass a strong possibility for a top 4 finish and Assad already having some ranked wins.   But yes I wouldn’t be surprised to see Assad off the podium.  The only other guy I wouldn’t be surprised to see off the podium is Murin.

PSU still has a good team, but if Iowa doesn’t win it will be a huge disappointment for them IMO.

That's a well argued list and makes the case why Iowa is the favorite.  But to me it doesn't add up to second place as an all time flop. 

Penn State hasn't wrestled enough matches to know if their question marks should be expected to hit their (high) ceilings in Minneapolis. 

It's a wide open year in lots of weights. Both teams have a lot of unproven guys.  I think the only way to have confidence that Iowa is so much better is to see how the injuries shake out and how the freshmen develop and handle March.

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23 hours ago, Housebuye said:

I don’t think that’s fair. PSU fans will be extremely disappointed if they lose. They expect their team to perform. Multiple times in the past 8 wins of theirs, they were underdogs or at least not heavy favorites. PSU overperforms at NCAAs and scored enough bonus to get them the win. That is what PSU fans expect and anything else will be disappointing. 
  
there is no moral victory for a dynasty in the middle of their dynasty, except in extreme cases (like when they redshirted their entire team - totally fair for PSU fans to not expect their team to win that year, whether they agreed with the decision or not)

I am over generalizing some of the fans. What you say is true for some, but I hear a lot of Penn State fans that are painting the narrative that it is Iowa’s to lose. I live in PA and am not really a Penn State fan, so I’ve had to live with all the hype and now hear some of the same people saying things like, “I don’t know why Cael would burn Brooks redshirt when we have no chance of winning this year.” Just seems crazy to question him now 

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5 hours ago, Eagle26 said:

I am over generalizing some of the fans. What you say is true for some, but I hear a lot of Penn State fans that are painting the narrative that it is Iowa’s to lose. I live in PA and am not really a Penn State fan, so I’ve had to live with all the hype and now hear some of the same people saying things like, “I don’t know why Cael would burn Brooks redshirt when we have no chance of winning this year.” Just seems crazy to question him now 

 FRL is painting that same narrative given Flo's rankings have Iowa 70 points ahead of 2nd place Penn State. Penn State fans who say this are just stating the obvious given current circumstances. Also, very few PSU fans question Sanderson''s strategies. 

Edited by TBar1977

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On 1/24/2020 at 11:12 AM, Jimmy Cinnabon said:

Iowa is absolutely loaded this and EVERYONE is predicting they win NCAAs, in some cases by 50+ points over the second place team.  Penn State, who started the season as their biggest rival, has been decimated by injuries.  Berge, Rasheed, Conel and Cassar.  This group, if healthy, would have likely yielded 3 AAs in Berge, Rasheed and Cassar and a definite finalist in Cassar.  Berge has only seen 1 dual all season and continues to recover from a concussion months ago, Conel and Cassar are done for the year and Rasheed is only recently back but again is an undersized 197 pounder.

Iowa has their 10 guys ranked as follows:

125 - #1

133 - #2

141 - #8

149 - #1

157 - #6

165 - #2

174 - #2

184 - #7

197 - #6

HWT - #3

 

By comparison this is Penn State:

125 - unranked, won't qualify for NCAAs

133 - #3

141 - #2

149 - unranked

157 - #4, but has only wrestled 1 match this year

165 - #1

174 - #1

184 - #6

197 - #19

HWT - unranked

So Penn State is only projected to have 4/10 or 5/10 AAs, assuming Berge can get healthy.  And 3 finalists.  I have a hard time seeing Penn State qualifying/scoring any points at 125, 149 and 157.

That is projected 10/10 AAs and 5 finalists, 2 champs by seed alone.  Average ranking is #4.  Has a team ever been more loaded?  I say no.  So if Iowa *somehow* doesn't come home with a title in March...would it be the biggest FLOP ever?

 

I say yes.

We will see who prevails in the Iowa-PSU dual. I would never bet against the magic of Cael Sanderson.

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On 1/24/2020 at 3:58 PM, Jimmy Cinnabon said:

I think the B10 gets 5 or 6 spots at 125.  And I see at least 8 guys in the B10 I would pick higher than Meredith.

You may be right about this.   Meredith lost to Cray of Maryland yesterday who is 4-14 and he is now on a 6 match losing streak.

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I wouldn't be surprised if Iowa flopped. Seen it happen to various favorites many, many times. I've seen lots of high seeds get knocked off before the quarterfinals at NCAAs, plus some of these Iowa wrestlers might be a bit overrated. The only "lock" on their team is Lee. Plus, maybe Brands peaked them too soon and they'll be burnt out by NCAAs.

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