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Cptafw164

Lehigh v Army Saturday

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It’s actually Friday night.  I need clickbait too.  It’s taking place in the HS Alma mater of Chris Morgan, Army’s 184 2 year letter winner and solid alternate behind Stewart.  He died this past summer during summer training.  after a moment of silence, I implore you to read the impartial  predictions and analysis of an Army Fan and Alum.

BLUF: 141, 184 and 197 are the key matches as the rest of the bouts have clear favorites. Army is favored at 141 and 184 according to FLO EIWA rankings and Army needs both those to take 5 matches. Barring any upsets, this will be a match tie.

Wrestlestat has Lehigh Winning 7 matches (21-11) and many matches are by 1 point for army and lehigh wins. Army is penned to ONLY win 141, 149, 165. I am comfortable with those matches going Army's way, even with Hoffman at 149 wrestlestat has OG winning. However here are the swing matches:[/b]

157: Humphries v Hartman. This is a toss up and I don't know how to predict this one because Markus is unorthodox and has beaten most of the guys that Humphries lost to. Humphries doesn't look as good this year as he did last year.  

184: Weiler lost to Army's 4th string 184 at the Princeton open, but that was long ago...and in a galaxy far away. Army has a better style match up, but Weiler seems to have a wildcard factor (I would say momentum had he not followed the win to Deprez with a loss to lowe).  

197: Jacobsen v Hopkins/Brown/Paulson: I have no idea who Coach Ward will throw in here, but I think Hopkins has the better chance of winning. Jakobsen had a 1 point match with Army's 3rd string, Paulson. Interesting, Paulson is the highest ranked 197 on the wrestle3stat army roster AND has only lost decisions to Cardenas, Jacobsen, Lowe (2x) and Hopkins/Paulson this season. He also pinned Navy's Koser at last years NCO. I wouldn't be surprised to see any one of these three wrestle against Lehigh. I would also not be surprised if the person who wrestles this match is NOT the one submitted for EIWAs.

Army has to win 2 of those 3 "toss ups" for a tie, but lehigh winning 184 and 157 are technically upsets in the eyes of the rankings. Therefore the only real upset would be an army win at 197 according to the rankings. Since I don't see any clear bonus points out of the other matches, if there is a pin from any team, it may make the difference for this match.  

If there are no "upsets" and favored wrestlers (according to flo DI and EIWA rankings) win
125: 8-3 Paetzell (L3_A0)
133: 7-4 Farro (L6-A0)
141: 7-5 Shie (L6-A3)
149: 10-3 Ogunsanya (L6- A6) (best chance for army bonus)  
157: 9-4 Hartman (L6-A9) (Hartman could pin Humphries, but would be hard pressed for a major)
165: 5-2 McCormick (L6-A12)
174: 6-1 Kutler (L9-A12)

Here is where we really get into the match and coaches are heeding the total score count (predictive results net +1 for Lehigh with points totaling 35-34). Unbelievable pressure for the remaining wrestlers.
184: 7-2 Stewart (L9-A15)
197: 4-3 Jakobsen (L12-A15)
HWT: 8-1 Lehigh (L15-A15) (best chance for Lehigh bonus, but not as high as Army's edge for 149)

Tie score, no pins or bonus.
LEHIGH wins by +3 in total match points (47-44) resulting in a 16-15 win.  

Once EIWA.org publishes the composite rankings, I will redo the "favorites" with those rankings. Though Flo has some pretty good EIWA rankings using good analysis.

Edited by Cptafw164

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I will say, my prediction as a fan has Army winning 21-13. 
 
1.  army gets a pin in a match they are already favored.
2.  Army wins 197.
3.  Lehigh gets a MD.  

You were wrong on all three of these. #1 and #2 should begin with LEHIGH.


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From the Lehigh Athletic website: https://lehighsports.com/news/2020/1/31/wrestling-kutlers-pin-sparks-late-run-as-no-12-lehigh-downs-no-19-army-24-9.aspx

I have to give a shout out to Cptafw164 who, along side yours truly, posted on WrestlingReport.com for a long time (he was formerly Cptafw163. :-) )

This was advertised as an anticipated competitive dual, and ARMY did came to wrestle! 

Fortunately, it turned into A Tale of Two Halves. LEHIGH persevered in the end.

We're closing in towards the end of the dual season and then, gearing up for the conference tournaments (EIWA's for us... )

Seeding implications w/ each win/loss.

EIWA's will be competitive imho... at this time, I don't see any team pulling out of the station rapidly here.

D3

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4 minutes ago, D3 for LU said:

From the Lehigh Athletic website: https://lehighsports.com/news/2020/1/31/wrestling-kutlers-pin-sparks-late-run-as-no-12-lehigh-downs-no-19-army-24-9.aspx

I have to give a shout out to Cptafw164 who, along side yours truly, posted on WrestlingReport.com for a long time (he was formerly Cptafw163. :-) )

This was advertised as an anticipated competitive dual, and ARMY did came to wrestle! 

Fortunately, it turned into A Tale of Two Halves. LEHIGH persevered in the end.

We're closing in towards the end of the dual season and then, gearing up for the conference tournaments (EIWA's for us... )

Seeding implications w/ each win/loss.

EIWA's will be competitive imho... at this time, I don't see any team pulling out of the station rapidly here.

D3

The most important question is "who will win the coveted EIWA dual meet championship trophy?"

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The most important question is "who will win the coveted EIWA dual meet championship trophy?"

Or who will chest thump on the claim that they placed all ten in the top eight at the non-competitive EIWA tourney- even though more than half of those were between 5th and 8th.


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1 hour ago, lu_alum said:


Or who will chest thump on the claim that they placed all ten in the top eight at the non-competitive EIWA tourney- even though more than half of those were between 5th and 8th.


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Well, the Army announcers chatted THAT up last nite... but not the last part of your statement.

They'll always have Binghamton. ;-)

D3

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56 minutes ago, D3 for LU said:

Well, the Army announcers chatted THAT up last nite... but not the last part of your statement.

They'll always have Binghamton. ;-)

D3

I just double checked - nine of their guys placed 4th or lower.  Seven of the ten were between 5th and 7th.  Only one finalist- who lost.

2nd:  165

4th:  141, 157

5th:  133, 149, 174

6th:  125, 184, 285

7th:  197

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Lehigh fans...  Always the victims ! :-D

I watched up until the PSU/IU dual came on at BTN; Army looked tough and scrappy, as expected - lots of close and entertaining matches at the lower weights.  Sounds like Lehigh pulled away in the upper weights, though.

So now - is Lehigh done for the season?  Any more wrestling left before EIWA's?

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4 hours ago, lu_alum said:


You were wrong on all three of these. #1 and #2 should begin with LEHIGH.


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Thanks for clearing that up.   Until now, I still thought I was correct.  I should have added “Two ranked Lehigh wrestlers will lose to Army back-ups.”   
 

Lehigh can rest easy at EIWAs and not worry at all about Army.  All Lehigh’s victories were not even close And the Army backups that beat their starters probably won’t be at EIWAs.  

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44 minutes ago, red blades said:

Lehigh fans...  Always the victims ! :-D

I watched up until the PSU/IU dual came on at BTN; Army looked tough and scrappy, as expected - lots of close and entertaining matches at the lower weights.  Sounds like Lehigh pulled away in the upper weights, though.

So now - is Lehigh done for the season?  Any more wrestling left before EIWA's?

Bucknell and Penn.  Tough run for Jacobsen with Phipps and Urbas.  Farro too with Darren Miller and Ferrante.  
 

plus more individual matches with implications as well.  Worth watching for die hard EIWA fans.  

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6 hours ago, witwhiz said:

Maybe Army should have sent that fourth stringer in against Weiler.
 

I thought that was going to happen.  Familiarity and preserves seeding.  Stewart has nothing to gain in that one.  
 

plus, our backups did well against other ranked wrestlers at 133 and 141.  

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23 hours ago, Cptafw164 said:

I thought that was going to happen.  Familiarity and preserves seeding.  Stewart has nothing to gain in that one.  
 

plus, our backups did well against other ranked wrestlers at 133 and 141.  

9-24 and 3 of the 9 was gift city from the ref. yeah you were right in it.

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On 2/1/2020 at 3:06 PM, Cptafw164 said:

I thought that was going to happen.  Familiarity and preserves seeding.  Stewart has nothing to gain in that one.  
 

plus, our backups did well against other ranked wrestlers at 133 and 141.  

I think your problem is not enough wrestlers to choose from.  I mean, only 49 on the roster and ...... what? ...... a couple dozen or so gray shirting in your prep school?

Edited by witwhiz

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On 2/1/2020 at 11:27 AM, lu_alum said:


Or who will chest thump on the claim that they placed all ten in the top eight at the non-competitive EIWA tourney- even though more than half of those were between 5th and 8th.


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I dunno.  A few years back when Lehigh placed all ten two years in a row we were sure proud of it.  We never mentioned the guys who were 4th or lower (what, those don't count?); finished second both years, too.

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I dunno.  A few years back when Lehigh placed all ten two years in a row we were sure proud of it.  We never mentioned the guys who were 4th or lower (what, those don't count?); finished second both years, too.

Let’s compare... In both years, Lehigh placed eight in the top four and put three & four in the finals. No champs for USMA. No contest as to which is the better accomplishment.

USMA 2019:
2nd:  165
4th:  141, 157
5th:  133, 149, 174
6th:  125, 184, 285
7th:  197

Lehigh 2016:
1st: 125, 285
2nd: 133
3rd: 141, 149, 165
4th: 184, 197
5th: 174
7th: 157

Lehigh 2015:
1st: 141
2nd: 133, 174, 184
4th: 125, 157, 197, 285
6th: 149
7th: 165


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3 hours ago, witwhiz said:

I think your problem is not enough wrestlers to choose from.  I mean, only 49 on the roster and ...... what? ...... a couple dozen or so gray shirting in your prep school?

Come on by the room... EVERYONE in there is training to be an Officer in the U.S Army. Size of the roster is irrelevant to the EIWA, NCAA and anyone else too ignorant to understand that athletes, especially wrestlers, often make great Soldiers and Officers.  Most in the room won’t sniff a #1 spot. I also wouldn’t be so certain that Wert, Brown, Weiland and Hopkins are backups. The best part of that is Army’s room is likely deeper than at any other time.

WRT all the other talk of dual meet champions, EIWA placers, etc... who cares?  Postseason THIS YEAR is a month out. Lehigh beat Army handily, and Army was on the receiving end of some marginal calls. BTW - I’m an Army fan and love the status and direction of the program. Lehigh and their fans should like it, too.

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Honestly can't think of a call that went LU's way all night but whatever.

MH all good with Army....Navy too for that matter and for anyone who tuned into the broadcast was treated to a very moving pre-match ceremony to which the Army commentators added plenty of interesting color and background about the program, the pride, and the service. Having watched that and then seeing JayZ and Beyonce sitting for the anthem at the SB made me wanna puke. If any of you think that's political in any way then you make me wanna puke as well. 

These academy kids putting it out there for their country. 

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3 hours ago, Mountain Hawk said:

Honestly can't think of a call that went LU's way all night but whatever.

 

Ummm .... the really quick pin call against Stewart?  I agree, everything else seemed to go Army's way, but if there'd been video review available a brick would have been flying before the ref's hand hit the mat.

Edited by jdalu75

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On 2/2/2020 at 2:08 PM, Mountain Hawk said:

9-24 and 3 of the 9 was gift city from the ref. yeah you were right in it.

You’re referring to 141 right?  Question:  wasn’t the 2 initially awarded with several seconds left?  If they reversed it on review, shouldn’t they have re-wrestled those last few seconds again?

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