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Spey "defense" on FRL today was brutal

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6 hours ago, TBar1977 said:

I will provide an objective example of Spey's lack of common sense in rankings this year. Let's compare his reactions to the seasons of Nelson Brands and Real Woods.

Nelson Brands beat Sam Colbray by 1 pt. He was instantly vaulted to something like 5th or 6th in the Flo rankings at 184. I am sure Spey would point to the fact Colbray was 5th before he lost to Brands, so then by his logic Brands should be 5th. But this kind of thinking refuses to consider a mountain of evidence that would lend to a contrary opinion. Colbray has had only 17 matches against top 15 ranked opponents over the past 3 years, but he has 28 losses over those 3 years. Conclusion: he takes a lot of head scratching losses. Alternate conclusion: He is simply not as good as the 5th place ranking Spey gave him to begin with, hence maybe vaulting Brands to 5th was not prudent.

Real Woods has 2 career losses, one to Nick Lee last year and the other in OT to Luke Pletcher this year. He is on a long win streak right now. He is currently ranked 9th by Spey. I am sorry, but anyone who would watch Real Woods and have him 9th is too stubbornly stuck to a rule set that will lead to results that are very whack.

 

 

You forgot the heavyweight stuff. After beating Hilger, Cassioppi jumped to #2...then a couple weeks after that he moved Mason Parris to #2 and bump Cassioppi to #3 with no reasoning or no significant wins(other than Stencel who was 7+) for Parris.

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So on today's FRL, CP says "injury defaults are very common."

Is that really true? Taking a quick look at the current #1's on wrestlestat, apologies if I missed anything but at first glance:

Spencer Lee has never won or lost by injury default

Seth Gross has never won or lost by injury default

Luke Pletcher has 1 injury default win in his career (last year vs. Tariq Wilson)

Sammy Sasso has never won or lost by injury default (including in his redshirt year last year)

Ryan Deakin has 1 injury default win in his career (against a guy from Northern Illinois in 2018 with a career record of 13-31)

Vincenzo Joseph has never won or lost by injury default

Michael Kemerer has 1 injury default loss in his career (2018 NCAA's vs. Berger)

Zahid Valencia has never won or lost by injury default

Kollin Moore has never won or lost by injury default

Gable Steveson has never won or lost by injury default

 

So, of the 10 current #1's, several of whom are seniors, they have had a grand total of 3 matches result in injury default in their careers.  

I guess my point is, I don't think injury defaults are really that common.  And when they do happen, the chances of them being a) between wrestlers where one has a chance to jump the other in the rankings and where b) one of the wrestlers has a commanding lead at the time of the default; is not very likely.   So I really don't see much downside in looking at each injury default situation on it's own.

Oh and please stop comparing it to Nolf/Van Brill.  Apples and oranges in terms of ranking implications.  Rivera/Piotrowski and Sloan/Geer are more similar, but both of those matches were close at the time of the default (and the higher ranked guy was winning anyway).

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6 hours ago, SetonHallPirate said:

For what it's worth, out of 13,963 matches so far this season between Division I opponents, there have been 118 defaults. Slightly less than 1% of all matches. 

Thanks! Didn’t realize there was a stat for this!

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9 hours ago, Jaroslav Hasek said:

Thanks for all the responses friends! Some are good, some not so great. More good questions would be even more appreciated! 

Showtime is 11:15AM CT but it's not live so it'll be up by early afternoon. Hope you all tune in!

Flo's NCAA Rankings (2/4):  Max Murin ranked #3
Flo's Big 10 Rankings (2/5): Max Murin ranked #6

Please explain.

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45 minutes ago, Dirge said:

Flo's NCAA Rankings (2/4):  Max Murin ranked #3
Flo's Big 10 Rankings (2/5): Max Murin ranked #6

Please explain.

I'm guessing its because they updated the Big 10 rankings after the NCAA rankings and that with the next NCAA update they will be reconciled. The as of date on the NCAA rankings is still listed as 2/3 while the Big 10 as of is 2/4. But you are right that it is sloppy. This is the internet after all, not print media.

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My favorite part of the FRL yesterday was Kyle Bratke's Flo defense, which went something like:

"The reason Flo's rankings are better than anybody else's is because Flo has rules. They're not written down anywhere, and I can only think of two of them off the top of my head, but, believe me, we have rules and everybody knows them."

 

 

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6 minutes ago, PhiferFuqua said:

My favorite part of the FRL yesterday was Kyle Bratke's Flo defense, which went something like:

"The reason Flo's rankings are better than anybody else's is because Flo has rules. They're not written down anywhere, and I can only think of two of them off the top of my head, but, believe me, we have rules and everybody knows them."

Those must be the rules that leave no room for the eye test, common sense or reason. But they take out subjectivity ........ except for the times they don't. 

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29 minutes ago, Perry said:

Flo rankings at 133 are garbage. Throwing out the rby/desanto result because desanto didn't finish it is comically bad. He was down by 5 points minimum and rby was dominating him. Bad take with an even worse response to criticisms. Willy was a much better ranker.

Agreed, to just totally ignore the RBY / DeSanto match is absolutely ridiculous.  RBY was going to win by major at minimum if not pin-fall.

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1 hour ago, Mokoma said:

Agreed, to just totally ignore the RBY / DeSanto match is absolutely ridiculous.  RBY was going to win by major at minimum if not pin-fall.

pin-fall!?

Sure might've gotten the pin off the first cradle and many thought he'd get a fall off the second cradle but no way in Carver they are gonna score 12 PSU team points for both "pin-fall."  ;_; 

;)

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On 2/4/2020 at 10:48 AM, 1032004 said:

I guess one could argue that Nolf was "penalized" going into Big Tens that year as he received the #2 seed - https://arena.flowrestling.org/event/43b26915-17cb-048a-0b4d-d0f00d1df6f7, however Kemerer was "also" undefeated going into the B10 tournament.

Seedings are not rankings.  Otherwse there would not be two different names.  They are viewed differently.  The B1G, for example, more heavily weighs the wrestlers results in B1G duals.

EDIT:  Which is also why Murin is lower than his national ranking.

Edited by VakAttack

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56 minutes ago, VakAttack said:

Seedings are not rankings.  Otherwse there would not be two different names.  They are viewed differently.  The B1G, for example, more heavily weighs the wrestlers results in B1G duals.

EDIT:  Which is also why Murin is lower than his national ranking.

I know.  The argument was that rankings IMPACT seeding, as the coaches' rank is a stated criteria for NCAA seeding.  And the coaches may just look at Flo's rankings for example.

But as long as the rankings don't really matter for Big Tens, then it might be kind of a moot point.  Because most likely whoever finishes higher at Big Tens will have the higher seed at NCAA's.  Although I guess a scenario where say RBY finishes second and Desanto third at Big Tens could in theory result in Desanto maintaining the higher Flo ranking over RBY, which could then impact NCAA seeding.

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12 minutes ago, 1032004 said:

I know.  The argument was that rankings IMPACT seeding, as the coaches' rank is a stated criteria for NCAA seeding.  And the coaches may just look at Flo's rankings for example.

But as long as the rankings don't really matter for Big Tens, then it might be kind of a moot point.  Because most likely whoever finishes higher at Big Tens will have the higher seed at NCAA's.  Although I guess a scenario where say RBY finishes second and Desanto third at Big Tens could in theory result in Desanto maintaining the higher Flo ranking over RBY, which could then impact NCAA seeding.

The connection between Flo's ranking and seeding at NCAA is tenuous at best, since it rests on the assumption that not only are the coaches too lazy to do their own rankings, which is obviously supposition, but also that the rankings they're relying on are Flo's.  Regardless, ti doesn't matter since the essential question is whether the process is correct.  They have a rule that they don't use Injury Default's in their rankings, since there's no way to know:  1.  How injured the wrestler was, 2.  To what extent the injury affected the match, and most importantly 3. There's no way to know exactly how the match would have played out without the injury.  People want to treat an injury default as if it's a pin.  It's not, and all you can do is make a policy decision and apply it uniformly.  People want to make a value judgment on individual matches which is going to be nearly impossible for anyone to do, because again, the unknown.

Hypothetically, lets say that RBY purposely injured Desanto in that tug on the foot.  Should it still count the way some want it to?  How can you tell?  You can't.  So rather then guess at unknowable variables, they just throw them out.  It's the only viable move.  People are just fired up about this one because they dislike Desanto and a great many of them think ((totally logically, of course /sarcasm/) he's faking an injury to cost his team 6 points in the biggest dual match up in years.

Edited by VakAttack

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6 minutes ago, VakAttack said:

The connection between Flo's ranking and seeding at NCAA is tenuous at best, since it rests on the assumption that not only are the coaches too lazy to do their own rankings, which is obviously supposition, but also that the rankings they're relying on are Flo's.  Regardless, ti doesn't matter since the essential question is whether the process is correct.  They have a rule that they don't use Injury Default's in their rankings, since there's no way to know:  1.  How injured the wrestler was, 2.  To what extent the injury affected the match, and most importantly 3. There's no way to know exactly how the match would have played out without the injury.  People want to treat an injury default as if it's a pin.  It's not, and all you can do is make a policy decision and apply it uniformly.  People want to make a value judgment on individual matches which is going to be nearly impossible for anyone to do, because again, the unknown.

Hypothetically, lets say that RBY purposely injured Desanto in that tug on the foot.  Should it still count the way some want it to?  How can you tell?  You can't.  So rather then guess at unknowable variables, they just throw them out.  It's the only viable move.  People are just fired up about this one because they dislike Desanto and a great many of them think ((totally logically, of course /sarcasm/) he's faking an injury to cost his team 6 points in the biggest dual match up in years.

This is a straw man argument IMO.  Even if he purposely injured Desanto (which he didn't), he wasn't penalized for it.   That's inserting more subjectivity then you're supposedly trying to remove.   I mean that's like saying you don't count Suriano's win over Fix or Zahid's win over Hall because they weren't called for pulling the headgear. 

All we have to go off of is that RBY likely would have been up 7-1 at the time of the second stoppage and had choice, so likely 8-1 shortly if he chose down and escaped.  The chances were very minimal that Desanto was coming back from that.  I'm not counting it as if it's a pin, I'm counting it as if it was a decision.    Considering RBY got his hand raised anyway, based on what happened in that match, no one is crediting RBY with an NCAA title but I think RBY should be credited with the win in that match including those doing rankings.  And I am pretty anti-PSU overall.

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21 minutes ago, 1032004 said:

This is a straw man argument IMO.  Even if he purposely injured Desanto (which he didn't), he wasn't penalized for it.   That's inserting more subjectivity then you're supposedly trying to remove.   I mean that's like saying you don't count Suriano's win over Fix or Zahid's win over Hall because they weren't called for pulling the headgear. 

All we have to go off of is that RBY likely would have been up 7-1 at the time of the second stoppage and had choice, so likely 8-1 shortly if he chose down and escaped.  The chances were very minimal that Desanto was coming back from that.  I'm not counting it as if it's a pin, I'm counting it as if it was a decision.    Considering RBY got his hand raised anyway, based on what happened in that match, no one is crediting RBY with an NCAA title but I think RBY should be credited with the win in that match including those doing rankings.  And I am pretty anti-PSU overall.

You're misunderstanding my hypothetical, I'm saying that you don't count any of them for that exact reason, it involves supposition.  You don't interpret RBY as having intent (which I've stated multiple times I don't believe he did) and you don't suppose RBY would have ended up winning the match or that he even would have finished that cradle.  People defend cradles all the time.  There is no supposition involved in removing them from the equation, every injury default is treated the same, no favoritism is shown to anybody.

And again you're supposing what the score would have been.  What if RBY gets the TD but is rolled thru and gets no backs?  Or what if as he tries to roll thru, Desanto sits thru and get the takedown or prevents any points from scoring?

This discussion we're all having is exactly the reason you can't count them.

EDIT:  Regarding Zahid and Fix matches, you're comparing apples to buffalo.  Those two matches went to completion, the ref missed a call.

Edited by VakAttack

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1 minute ago, VakAttack said:

You're misunderstanding my hypothetical, I'm saying that you don't count any of them for that exact reason, it involves supposition.  You don't interpret RBY as having intent (which I've stated multiple times I don't believe he did) and you don't suppose RBY would have ended up winning the match or that he even would have finished that cradle.  People defend cradles all the time.  There is no supposition involved in removing them from the equation, every injury default is treated the same, no favoritism is shown to anybody.

And again you're supposing what the score would have been.  What if RBY gets the TD but is rolled thru and gets no backs?  Or what if as he tries to roll thru, Desanto sits thru and get the takedown or prevents any points from scoring?

This discussion we're all having is exactly the reason you can't count them.

The match started and ended, with RBY declareded the winner.  How can you not count that?

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1 minute ago, jchapman said:

The match started and ended, with RBY declareded the winner.  How can you not count that?

Because it was ended due to an injury, not a wrestling move.  He was not pinned or teched.  I know you're going to fly in with your opinion about Desanto faking his injury, but again, that's supposition.  They don't count any injury defaults and they never have, according to them.  Suddenly everybody wants them to, and it's because people don't like Desanto.

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3 minutes ago, VakAttack said:

Because it was ended due to an injury, not a wrestling move.  He was not pinned or teched.  I know you're going to fly in with your opinion about Desanto faking his injury, but again, that's supposition.  They don't count any injury defaults and they never have, according to them.  Suddenly everybody wants them to, and it's because people don't like Desanto.

I have never said Desanto faked an injury.  You are projecting that on me.

I think if we don't count results of matches, then we have lost our way.  

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