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Kentucky_Mudflap

Iowa Penn State Nationals Brakedown its a Horse Race Gents

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Hombres down to the Gabes with some of the Hawks in the Know pored some truth serum down them gents bar bill come close to 300 but gents you all know thats chump change to the Voice of Wrestling tore down weights and talked PSU and injuries and Desantos MCL tear and all and lamenting on better times when the worlds gratest coach of the worlds oldest and gratest sport was running the show its been a decade gents since Iowa won a title and this was to be the year but hombres turns out its a team race and Kales got the horses and right now the best case rundown and vote was there aint much to separate them teams following friends is the brakedown we come up to a tie its a coin toss gents wanting to hear your take.

 

IOWA      
  Name         Place            Pts
125  Lee 1 25
133  DeSanto 5 14
141  Murin 8 5
149  Lugo 5 9
157  Young 6 9
165  Marianelli 3 14
174  Kimmer 3 14
184  Assad            DNP 2
197  Warner 6 6
HVW Cass 4 13
      111
PENN STATE      
125  Meredith           DNP 0
133  RBY 3 16
141  Lee 1 22
149  Verkleeren 8 5
157  Pipher           DNP 0
165  Joseph 1 22
174  Hall 1 22
184  Brooks 3 14
197  Rasheed 8 5
HVW Nevills 8 5
      111

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Selling Nick Lee short as well, at least when it comes to bonus.  If Lee wins, he will score 25+.  He is by far PSU's best bonus point guy at this point.  I would be surprised if he doesn't bonus everyone but Pletcher.  Demas has not looked great and I think Lee finishes much cleaner on him this season and wears him out on top.  Woods is MAYBE the 1 other wildcard that could make the match competitive.

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1 minute ago, MSU158 said:

Selling Nick Lee short as well, at least when it comes to bonus.  If Lee wins, he will score 25+.  He is by far PSU's best bonus point guy at this point.  I would be surprised if he doesn't bonus everyone but Pletcher.  Demas has not looked great and I think Lee finishes much cleaner on him this season and wears him out on top.  Woods is MAYBE the 1 other wildcard that could make the match competitive.

Add the word "pace" in there and you'll have said exactly what I said 9 months ago and got smoked on this board for saying it. Ha!

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Just now, TBar1977 said:

Add the word "pace" in there and you'll have said exactly what I said 9 months ago and got smoked on this board for saying it. Ha!

Yeah, but there was NO WAY to know he would jump levels this season like he has REGARDLESS of that pace.  Nick Lee is simply MUCH better than he was the past 2 seasons and I don't think it is even close.  His improvement this season may be the biggest jump a PSU guy has made under Sanderson in just 1 season.  Retherford made a similar jump, but that was after a redshirt season.

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17 minutes ago, MSU158 said:

Yeah, but there was NO WAY to know he would jump levels this season like he has REGARDLESS of that pace.  Nick Lee is simply MUCH better than he was the past 2 seasons and I don't think it is even close.  His improvement this season may be the biggest jump a PSU guy has made under Sanderson in just 1 season.  Retherford made a similar jump, but that was after a redshirt season.

That's reasonable to not have expected quite so much a jump, but so was my prior post saying he could wear Demas out this year without prior knowledge of just how big a jump he would make. Demas was tiring in their last match, so with no improvement in strength or stamina Nick Lee could in theory still wear him out. Just improve technique to stay out of that inside trip.

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42 minutes ago, Kentucky_Mudflap said:

Hombres down to the Gabes with some of the Hawks in the Know pored some truth serum down them gents bar bill come close to 300 but gents you all know thats chump change to the Voice of Wrestling tore down weights and talked PSU and injuries and Desantos MCL tear and all and lamenting on better times when the worlds gratest coach of the worlds oldest and gratest sport was running the show its been a decade gents since Iowa won a title and this was to be the year but hombres turns out its a team race and Kales got the horses and right now the best case rundown and vote was there aint much to separate them teams following friends is the brakedown we come up to a tie its a coin toss gents wanting to hear your take.

 

IOWA      
  Name         Place            Pts
125  Lee 1 25
133  DeSanto 5 14
141  Murin 8 5
149  Lugo 5 9
157  Young 6 9
165  Marianelli 3 14
174  Kimmer 3 14
184  Assad            DNP 2
197  Warner 6 6
HVW Cass 4 13
      111
PENN STATE      
125  Meredith           DNP 0
133  RBY 3 16
141  Lee 1 22
149  Verkleeren 8 5
157  Pipher           DNP 0
165  Joseph 1 22
174  Hall 1 22
184  Brooks 3 14
197  Rasheed 8 5
HVW Nevills 8 5
      111

No Fanboy here so let's see what I can come up with. Best case scenario.

125 - OK

133 - If RBY can finish 3rd, AD can as well. (Iowa + 2)

141 - OK

149 - Again, if Verk can finish 8 Lugo can finish 3rd. Not that confident in JV yet. I'll leave it as is and will give Penn State all the benefit here just to see.

157 - OK

165 - Bull can finish 1st or 2nd best case. (Iowa + 4)

174 - MK can certainly win it and I think second is probably the worst he could do. Probably as much of a bonus point win as Hall. (Iowa + 4)

184 - If Brooks can finish third then whoever Iowa puts in there could finish 8. Not sold on Aaron at all at this weight class in folkstyle. (-6 PSU)

197 - As inconsistent as Warner is he still finished fourth last year. Also think Rasheed is getting better. Wash.

285 - OK

I give Iowa 10 more points and take 6 away from Penn State. Still closer than what most people might think but definitely Iowa's to lose. IMO

 

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57 minutes ago, Kentucky_Mudflap said:

Hombres down to the Gabes with some of the Hawks in the Know pored some truth serum down them gents bar bill come close to 300 but gents you all know thats chump change to the Voice of Wrestling tore down weights and talked PSU and injuries and Desantos MCL tear and all and lamenting on better times when the worlds gratest coach of the worlds oldest and gratest sport was running the show its been a decade gents since Iowa won a title and this was to be the year but hombres turns out its a team race and Kales got the horses and right now the best case rundown and vote was there aint much to separate them teams following friends is the brakedown we come up to a tie its a coin toss gents wanting to hear your take.

 

IOWA      
  Name         Place            Pts
125  Lee 1 25
133  DeSanto 5 14
141  Murin 8 5
149  Lugo 5 9
157  Young 6 9
165  Marianelli 3 14
174  Kimmer 3 14
184  Assad            DNP 2
197  Warner 6 6
HVW Cass 4 13
      111
PENN STATE      
125  Meredith           DNP 0
133  RBY 3 16
141  Lee 1 22
149  Verkleeren 8 5
157  Pipher           DNP 0
165  Joseph 1 22
174  Hall 1 22
184  Brooks 3 14
197  Rasheed 8 5
HVW Nevills 8 5
      111

That’s close to a best case scenario for PSU. Only PSU guy who has a shot at outperforming your projections is RBY who I could easily see in the finals. Maybe Rasheed might be able to outperform his place and score another 1 or 2 points but that’s it.

And projecting Brooks to score as many team points (and place as high) as Kem and Marinelli is bananas. Could it happen? I suppose so but no way should that be the baseline or expectation.

Lugo, Young, Murin and Assad are going to score more than 25 points combined. 

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7 minutes ago, MDogg said:

That’s close to a best case scenario for PSU. Only PSU guy who has a shot at outperforming your projections is RBY who I could easily see in the finals. Maybe Rasheed might be able to outperform his place and score another 1 or 2 points but that’s it.

And projecting Brooks to score as many team points (and place as high) as Kem and Marinelli is bananas. Could it happen? I suppose so but no way should that be the baseline or expectation.

Lugo, Young, Murin and Assad are going to score more than 25 points combined. 

Until I read your post, I didn't realize that he had the same points for Brooks and Kemerrer. That is out there. Not only is Brooks not in his league, but he's not even a bonus pointer at this point in his career. MK is not either, like say N. Lee but a notch or so better than Aaron. In my mind, it would take a stunning upset for Kemerrer not to get to the finals. Like you said that projection is a major best case scenario for the Nittany Lions.

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32 minutes ago, ConnorsDad said:

No Fanboy here so let's see what I can come up with. Best case scenario.

125 - OK

133 - If RBY can finish 3rd, AD can as well. (Iowa + 2)

141 - OK

149 - Again, if Verk can finish 8 Lugo can finish 3rd. Not that confident in JV yet. I'll leave it as is and will give Penn State all the benefit here just to see.

157 - OK

165 - Bull can finish 1st or 2nd best case. (Iowa + 4)

174 - MK can certainly win it and I think second is probably the worst he could do. Probably as much of a bonus point win as Hall. (Iowa + 4)

184 - If Brooks can finish third then whoever Iowa puts in there could finish 8. Not sold on Aaron at all at this weight class in folkstyle. (-6 PSU)

197 - As inconsistent as Warner is he still finished fourth last year. Also think Rasheed is getting better. Wash.

285 - OK

I give Iowa 10 more points and take 6 away from Penn State. Still closer than what most people might think but definitely Iowa's to lose. IMO

 

Warner actually took 7th last season.  Not meaning to nitpick, but that is substantially different than 4th.  In fact, it is a minimum of 6 points difference!

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44 minutes ago, ConnorsDad said:

No Fanboy here so let's see what I can come up with. Best case scenario.

125 - OK

133 - If RBY can finish 3rd, AD can as well. (Iowa + 2)

141 - OK

149 - Again, if Verk can finish 8 Lugo can finish 3rd. Not that confident in JV yet. I'll leave it as is and will give Penn State all the benefit here just to see.

157 - OK

165 - Bull can finish 1st or 2nd best case. (Iowa + 4)

174 - MK can certainly win it and I think second is probably the worst he could do. Probably as much of a bonus point win as Hall. (Iowa + 4)

184 - If Brooks can finish third then whoever Iowa puts in there could finish 8. Not sold on Aaron at all at this weight class in folkstyle. (-6 PSU)

197 - As inconsistent as Warner is he still finished fourth last year. Also think Rasheed is getting better. Wash.

285 - OK

I give Iowa 10 more points and take 6 away from Penn State. Still closer than what most people might think but definitely Iowa's to lose. IMO

 

Rby could win as well
 

Lugo could be 3rd and he can just as easily lose to someone like Degan and take 7th

MK beat labriola on a last second takedown, and has 1 point or OT matches every time he’s wrestled Kutler and Joe Smith, your guaranteeing atleast 2nd for a guy whose never made it past the quarters and hasn’t wrestled a single big match outside Carver in 2 years.

assad just lost 3 straight matches and was sat for wilcke, he’s also lost to a NAIA kid this year...Brooks is another level 

warner finished 7th last year as the 5 seed, he lost to the 21 seed Lane and the 16 Hokit and he definitely looked better last season 

still agree Iowa’s the favorite but I think your selling Penn State short

Edited by Antitroll2828

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Just now, MSU158 said:

Warner actually took 7th last season.  Not meaning to nitpick, but that is substantially different than 4th.  In fact, it is a minimum of 6 points difference!

**** No you're not nitpicking. As I was typing I wasn't certain and I thought about going and looking it up, but I decided to take the lazy route. That is a definite difference.

I went back and looked at my post and I realized something so I'll add it here.

In all of those 'results ' I,  along with the original poster, tried to put in best case scenario. Barring injuries, the worst case scenario, at least in my opinion, is far worse for Penn State than it is for Iowa.

Here are a few of what I mean. I could see Seth not placing while it's hard for me to picture TG not making All American. I can see Verkleeren not placing. I could even see Aaron Brooks not placing.

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1 hour ago, TBar1977 said:

That's reasonable to not have expected quite so much a jump, but so was my prior post saying he could wear Demas out this year without prior knowledge of just how big a jump he would make. Demas was tiring in their last match, so with no improvement in strength or stamina Nick Lee could in theory still wear him out. Just improve technique to stay out of that inside trip.

Yeah, but I was talking about Lee actually MAJORING Demas this season.  Last year's version was, at best, even with Demas, NEEDING that gas tank to eek out a win in the 3rd.  I don't think this version has ANY problems with this version of Demas, OTHER than a lucky home run swing!

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1 hour ago, russelscout said:

Was it tho? Iowa didn't become favorites until after the season started. Next year was supposed to be "the year".

Had Teske panned out at 125 (a NQ at worst, and probable R12 guy), Berge been healthy, and Shaq performed as expected, PSU would obviously be much closer this year.

Assuming Kemerer gets a medical, Iowa simply adds Eierman next year, while PSU loses Hall, Cenzo and Shaq, while adding Starocci, Beard and maybe Howard.  And few recognized Starocci's talent pre-Scuffle.

Makes sense that most were forecasting next year as Iowa's best opportunity to win it all, but things have changed.

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6 minutes ago, MSU158 said:

Yeah, but I was talking about Lee actually MAJORING Demas this season.  Last year's version was, at best, even with Demas, NEEDING that gas tank to eek out a win in the 3rd.  I don't think this version has ANY problems with this version of Demas, OTHER than a lucky home run swing!

Sounds about right. 

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Does anyone actually believe that Verk can place 8th?  I think it is more likely he does not qualify than placing 8th.  I am sure he will get a wild card but I am thinking there is no way he wins his way in via the big tens.  I would also be way shocked if Sheed finishes anywhere close to 8th.  He looks like a really slow shell of himself and I doubt he wins more than 2 matches after the big tens.

To be fair, I am not sold on Murin Scoring much for Iowa this year and DeSanto is obviously the biggest wild card here.  If he is good to go then the points look about right or he might be able to score more if he is 100 percent.  If he is not then that number could go down as well.

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17 minutes ago, Antitroll2828 said:

Rby could win as well
 

Lugo could be 3rd and he can just as easily lose to someone like Degan and take 7th

MK beat labriola on a last second takedown, and has 1 point or OT matches every time he’s wrestled Kutler and Joe Smith, your guaranteeing atleast 2nd for a guy whose never made it past the quarters and hasn’t wrestled a single big match outside Carver in 2 years.

assad just lost 3 straight matches and was sat for wilcke, he’s also lost to a NAIA kid this year...Brooks is another level 

warner finished 7th last year as the 5 seed, he lost to the 21 seed Lane and the 16 Hokit and he definitely looked better last season 

still agree Iowa’s the favorite but I think your selling Penn State short


When were these 1 point or OT matches between Kemerer and Kutler? 

Overall I think “never been past the quarters and can barely beat Labriola” is a pretty unfair description of Kemerer’s career and capabilities. Kemerer is 12-2 at his last 2 NCAA tournaments (excluding an injury default when he separated his shoulder in the 3rd place match in 2018)...and one of those quarterfinal loses was a 6-2 decision to a guy named Jason Nolf. Nobody’s ever gotten past the quarters when they pull Nolf in the quarters.

Nobody is guaranteeing anything but it’s not a reach at all to project Kemerer in the finals.
 

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2 hours ago, Kentucky_Mudflap said:

Hombres down to the Gabes with some of the Hawks in the Know pored some truth serum down them gents bar bill come close to 300 but gents you all know thats chump change to the Voice of Wrestling tore down weights and talked PSU and injuries and Desantos MCL tear and all and lamenting on better times when the worlds gratest coach of the worlds oldest and gratest sport was running the show its been a decade gents since Iowa won a title and this was to be the year but hombres turns out its a team race and Kales got the horses and right now the best case rundown and vote was there aint much to separate them teams following friends is the brakedown we come up to a tie its a coin toss gents wanting to hear your take.

 

IOWA      
  Name         Place            Pts
125  Lee 1 25
133  DeSanto 5 14
141  Murin 8 5
149  Lugo 5 9
157  Young 6 9
165  Marianelli 3 14
174  Kimmer 3 14
184  Assad            DNP 2
197  Warner 6 6
HVW Cass 4 13
      111
PENN STATE      
125  Meredith           DNP 0
133  RBY 3 16
141  Lee 1 22
149  Verkleeren 8 5
157  Pipher           DNP 0
165  Joseph 1 22
174  Hall 1 22
184  Brooks 3 14
197  Rasheed 8 5
HVW Nevills 8 5
      111

125 - OK

133- RBY is a finalist and potential titlist. Desanto 3rd or 4th, if the knee holds up. 

141 - Lee wins it. Murin Rnd of 12

149 - Lugo 3rd. Verkleeren Rnd of 16 best case. 

157 - Young 5th or 6th seems right.. Pipher zero points

165 - Joseph / Marinelli: Either guy can place 1st through 3rd, depending on seeds and when/if they meet. 

174 - My gut says you are right with these picks but could also be similar to 165 depending on when/if they meet.

184: Brooks 7/8 tops. Assad Rd of 12

197: Warner 5/6. Rasheed Rd 12 or 16

285: Cass 3rd or 4th. Nevills Rd 12 or 16. 

 

In summary, 

For Iowa, I think you undersold a few guys but it's about right, 110-120 pts

For PSU, I think you have a few too many high placings, maybe slightly undersold RBY, 90-105 pts.

 

Close race  if one of them doesn't poop their pants this year.

 

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Mudflap is selling Murin, Lugo, Young and Warner short.  I don't think any are finalists but I think they are all top 5.

Kimmer is looking like a finalist.  He may never beat Hall again but he is there and he is not your typical former Hawkeye from the last 9 years.  He was beating Palacio as a freshman and got funked to his back, he should've been a finalist.  As a sophomore, he was dinged everywhere and took 4th.  He is looking great at 174 and is healthy.

He is a finalist.

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