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IronChef

133: favorites vs. the field

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Just now, IronChef said:

This article about 133 is on the NCAA website: https://www.ncaa.com/news/wrestling/article/2020-02-10/race-be-college-wrestlings-133-pound-national-champion-incredibly

How likely is the champ to be one of the four guys listed (Gross, DeSanto, RBY, Rivera)?

What odds would you need to be willing to bet the field over those 4?

Champ will be one of those four, imo. I can envision one not making the semi finals, but the final itself probably has two of the four. 

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Just now, IronChef said:

 

This article about 133 is on the NCAA website: https://www.ncaa.com/news/wrestling/article/2020-02-10/race-be-college-wrestlings-133-pound-national-champion-incredibly

 

How likely is the champ to be one of the four guys listed (Gross, DeSanto, RBY, Rivera)?

 

What odds would you need to be willing to bet the field over those 4?

 

One of those 4 winning are about as close to guaranteed as you can possibly get. I’d throw down 10 bucks at odds 1/100 or higher. But I feel like the only chance of that is for multiple injuries to the top 4 guys so I’d be kissing that 10 bucks goodbye. 

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5 minutes ago, goheels1812 said:

One of those 4 winning are about as close to guaranteed as you can possibly get. I’d throw down 10 bucks at odds 1/100 or higher. But I feel like the only chance of that is for multiple injuries to the top 4 guys so I’d be kissing that 10 bucks goodbye. 

I'm not great at math but are saying you'd bet $10 to win 10 cents that one of them wins?  Seems like a silly bet.

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22 minutes ago, malcolmJfromPA said:

Although nothing is 100%.  Id say that one of the 4 of them win is at 95% with the remaining left to the field.  The field being Phillipi and Tucker.  The real fight is those last few spots.     

One of them, at least, has a win over one of those favorites.  And a win over Pletcher last year.  And is still undefeated (albeit not in the B1G).  Just sayin'...

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38 minutes ago, malcolmJfromPA said:

Depending on seeding you may have to beat 2 of them or even 3 if the NCAA screws it up and puts 3 of them in the same half of the bracket.  

Can you explain what the "NCAA" has to do with it and then the specifics of how they could "scew it up?"

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Chaz tucker will likely be undefeated at the end of the season which could make him the #1 seed.  After B1G tourney the four legit contenders all but one will still have another loss.  This potentially force the NCAA to seed 2 or even 3 of them on the same side of the bracket.  Especially with Rivera not wrestling as much this season.   When clearly "I" think atleast 3 of the four should be seeded higher than an undefeated Tucker.  Thus making it harder for 2 of the 4 to make the finals.

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2 minutes ago, malcolmJfromPA said:

Chaz tucker will likely be undefeated at the end of the season which could make him the #1 seed.  After B1G tourney the four legit contenders all but one will still have another loss.  This potentially force the NCAA to seed 2 or even 3 of them on the same side of the bracket.  Especially with Rivera not wrestling as much this season.   When clearly "I" think atleast 3 of the four should be seeded higher than an undefeated Tucker.  Thus making it harder for 2 of the 4 to make the finals.

Tucker's strength of schedule will prevent him from being the #1 seed, and he shouldn't be.

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7 minutes ago, klehner said:

Tucker's strength of schedule will prevent him from being the #1 seed, and he shouldn't be.

Correct, the seeding formula they have been using pretty much takes care of things. 

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52 minutes ago, klehner said:

Tucker's strength of schedule will prevent him from being the #1 seed, and he shouldn't be.

 

44 minutes ago, BLT said:

Correct, the seeding formula they have been using pretty much takes care of things. 

2 years ago Joey Lavalle lost to the only top ten guy he wrestled all season, beat the rest of his weak schedule and was the 2 seed at ncaas, ahead of nolf and kememer who missed some time with injury and other guys who wrestled much tougher schedules, I can something similar happening this year 

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1 hour ago, malcolmJfromPA said:

Chaz tucker will likely be undefeated at the end of the season which could make him the #1 seed.  After B1G tourney the four legit contenders all but one will still have another loss.  This potentially force the NCAA to seed 2 or even 3 of them on the same side of the bracket.  Especially with Rivera not wrestling as much this season.   When clearly "I" think atleast 3 of the four should be seeded higher than an undefeated Tucker.  Thus making it harder for 2 of the 4 to make the finals.

Not sure who/what you are replying to, but it won't be seeded on what you think.  The "NCAA" doesn't seed the individuals. the tournament has a committee which applies the seeding rules/criteria that have already been established.  They aren't going to "screw it up."  

Now the B10 is a different story as my understanding they don't have a set procedure, seeding is determined by the coaches (could be wrong they might have changed, someone will correct if so) thus with their system suppose you could argue that the coaches "might screw it up."

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2 hours ago, ionel said:

Not sure who/what you are replying to, but it won't be seeded on what you think.  The "NCAA" doesn't seed the individuals. the tournament has a committee which applies the seeding rules/criteria that have already been established.  They aren't going to "screw it up."  

Now the B10 is a different story as my understanding they don't have a set procedure, seeding is determined by the coaches (could be wrong they might have changed, someone will correct if so) thus with their system suppose you could argue that the coaches "might screw it up."

I agree it’s not like they will screw this one up, but the NCAA seeding committee has definitely screwed up some seeds before so you never know

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Let’s rephrase the question: which guy from “the field” is most likely to knock out one of the top four? Tucker honestly isn’t a bad choice,  but I’m gonna pick Alvarez out of Rutgers to make some noise. This isn’t a prediction or anything, just for discussions sake 

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Tucker wrestles too conservatively to win it all.Inevitably aganst one of the top 4 he would suffer a TD to exposure move that would result in his being behind by a bunch -- a hill too steep for him to climb. However, against each of he he would be only a slight underdog, a coin flip one way or the other. Unfortunately for Tucker, because of his style he would also be a coin flip with 10 - 15 others who he may have to face along the way. 

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1 hour ago, tjhart said:

Tucker wrestles too conservatively to win it all.Inevitably aganst one of the top 4 he would suffer a TD to exposure move that would result in his being behind by a bunch -- a hill too steep for him to climb. However, against each of he he would be only a slight underdog, a coin flip one way or the other. Unfortunately for Tucker, because of his style he would also be a coin flip with 10 - 15 others who he may have to face along the way. 

He's apparently won a bunch of coin tosses, as his last dual meet loss was in December...of 2018.

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1 hour ago, Mokoma said:

Why in the hell would the odds be that?  Everyone in the world would take that bet.

Because when everyone in the world takes that bet Vegas gets to keep everyone’s 10 bucks when RBY, DeSanto, Gross, or Seabass wins. It’s just all about statistical probability. 

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