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Who will the individual champs be?

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Stevesons biggest opponent is himself.

I agree @TobusRex, Gable doesn't seem too concerned about anything, let alone Mason Parris. That just might be his undoing at nationals. 

I love how Mueller competes but I don't think he beats Lee. Sure, I think he's only had 1 close match all year (4-2 vs Daugustino, if I remember correctly) and he's great on top but Lee will be just as ready for him as he is for Lee. Also, is it guranteed he gets by either Picc or Glory in the semis (depending on seeding, ofcourse)?

One last thought....Speaking of post match interviews, loved Nolfs last year. Spoke very highly of Tyler Berger and seemed so sincere and genuine. One of my favorite's.

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52 minutes ago, TobusRex said:

He's wrestled a pretty weak schedule so far, not the meat grinder of the Big 10. That could be a good thing though, he might be fresher for NCAAs. Wrestled a pretty tough match vs Pletcher, so I'd say he's a legit AA candidate in light of his record.

I should be clear, I think Woods is better than Murin, I just don't think you can seed or rank him that way based on his season so far.  Woods has a better loss, but nowhere near the quality of wins.

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1 hour ago, Mokoma said:

Nato never lost in the national finals.  He went 1-3-3-3.

My bad, he beat him in the Semis and then Suriano in the Finals?? That's even more impressive, dominated 2 of the strongest 125lber's in the last decade. 

41 minutes ago, jross said:

Reasons it is possible for Mueller to win.

  • Mental strength.
  • Adaptation.  It is challenging to beat great opponents multiple times.
  • Transitive wins.  Mueller handled Rivera soundly, who twice beat Lee.  Rivera beat Lee from their feet.  Mueller beat Rivera from their feet.
  • Mueller is tough on his feet and is tough on top.  
  • Weird things happen.  Lee once lost by pinfall to Piccininni.
  • It is difficult to be a 4-peat champion.

Mental strength - ....HAHAHAHAHAHA....yeah........so we know for sure Mueller has "more" mental strength than Lee? Again......HAHAHAHAHAHAHA.......

Adaption - Agreed....IF the opponents are close. I don't see Mueller as a huge threat, at least from his performance last year against Lee. 

Transitive wins - I would agree....but, both times Rivera beat Lee he wasn't 100%. Not close to 100%. The dude was coming off Mono and it still took a last second takedown to beat Lee. 

Mueller may be "tough" on his feet and top - but I don't see Mueller outwrestling Lee standing up. I would agree that Lee has shown weakness on bottom, maybe if Mueller can get him down and lay on him for the remainder of the match it will be beneficial. 

Weird things do happen, I agree. 

I won't comment on the last point....I think everyone agrees with that. 

 

I wasn't stating that Mueller has ZERO chance, of course everyone has a chance to win and everyone CAN lose, but, I thought the point of the thread is who people believe has the BEST CHANCE to win. I agree Mueller has a chance....just not the best chance. I also believe the gap between #1 and the rest of the field is closer at just about every weight than it is at 125. I personally believe when Lee is at 100% he is top 3 in the World.....let alone college. 

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1 hour ago, MrDream said:

Mental strength - ....HAHAHAHAHAHA....yeah........so we know for sure Mueller has "more" mental strength than Lee? Again......HAHAHAHAHAHAHA.......

I wasn't stating that Mueller has ZERO chance, of course everyone has a chance to win and everyone CAN lose, but, I thought the point of the thread is who people believe has the BEST CHANCE to win. I agree Mueller has a chance....just not the best chance. I also believe the gap between #1 and the rest of the field is closer at just about every weight than it is at 125. I personally believe when Lee is at 100% he is top 3 in the World.....let alone college. 

Stating that Mueller has mental strength does not imply that Lee does not.  If Mueller adjusts and wins from his feet, I like his chances in beating Lee.  Lee is the favorite - my pick is Mueller in this potential next-match only.

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1 minute ago, jross said:

Stating that Mueller has mental strength does not imply that Lee does not.  If Mueller adjusts and wins from his feet, I like his chances in beating Lee.  Lee is the favorite - my pick is Mueller in this potential next-match only.

but is he implying that Mueller has an advantage over Lee in the mental strength department? because I don't know how you could come to that conclusion either.

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25 minutes ago, jross said:

Stating that Mueller has mental strength does not imply that Lee does not.  If Mueller adjusts and wins from his feet, I like his chances in beating Lee.  Lee is the favorite - my pick is Mueller in this potential next-match only.

Mueller doesn't have the adjustments to make.  He's not athletic enough.  Guys like Rivera and Picc can give Spencer trouble because they're highly athletic.  Mueller isn't explosive.  And he doesn't score from top against good guys, he's just a leech.

His only real shot is to hold Lee to a maximum of 1 TD in the first, not getting turned, and getting on top of Lee for a period.  If Lee chooses neutral, Mueller will be forced to choose between going bottom and getting one point escape, or choosing top and trying to get a few stall calls.

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125- Lee over Mueller

  • All Americans: Lee, Mueller, Piccininni, Glory, Colaiocco, Hildenbrant, Paetzell, and Schroeder

133- Rivera over Gross

  • All Americans: Rivera, Gross, RBY, Alvarez, Desanto, Lovett, Tucker, and Phillippi

141- Lee over Woods

  • All Americans: Lee, Woods, Pletcher, Red, Demas, Murin, Moran, and McKee

149- Lugo over Sasso

  • All Americans: Lugo, Sasso, Lewallen, Lee, Kolodzik, O'Connor, Thomsen, and Andonian

157- Deakin over Hilday

  • Deakin, Hilday, Carr, Dellavecchia, Young, Humphreys, Monday, and Early

165- Joseph over Marinelli (I think Marinelli wins the Big 10's though)

  • Joseph, Marinelli, Griffith, White, Shields, Wick, McFadden, and Wittlake

174- Kemerer over Hall (I think Hall wins the Big 10's)

  • Kemerer, Hall, Kutler, Steiert, Labriola, Lydy, Harvey, and Romero

184- Valencia over Bolen

  • Valencia, Bolen, Brooks, Hilday, Caffey, DePrez, Venz, and Lujan

197- Moore over Darmstadt

  • Moore, Darmstadt, Adams, Warner, Schultz, Brunner, Brucki, and Traxler

285-Steveson over Parris

  • Steveson, Parris, Hall, Cassioppi, Hilger, Wood, Thomas, and Stencel

 

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1 hour ago, jross said:

Stating that Mueller has mental strength does not imply that Lee does not.  If Mueller adjusts and wins from his feet, I like his chances in beating Lee.  Lee is the favorite - my pick is Mueller in this potential next-match only.

The way I (and 99% of the audience) read the comment is that you were insinuating that Mueller's mental strength will be one of the reasons you were picking him. Which is fine...if there is/was conclusive evidence in showing that his mental strength is greater than Lee's. There's zero evidence of this claim. Unless you see something everyone else doesn't....which I highly doubt. 

I would agree with the second part of the statement. If Mueller adjusts and wins from his feet he could definitely beat Lee. I just don't know how that would be accomplished. I rewatched the Finals match from last year. Mueller was bailed out by the clock at the end of the 1st, otherwise Mueller would have been in a deeper hole than just 2-0. Also, before Lee started to turn him in the last 10 seconds of the 1st Mueller was lifeless on the bottom. Not a great look. At no point in the first did Mueller have a legit chance on his feet to score. Very heavy footed straight forward wrestling. Trying one angle and then resetting....straight forward wrestlers with no combo shots aren't successful against Lee. 

The 2nd period was Mueller's chance to be the monster on top everyone talks about. He does very well at not allowing space between his body and his opponent's, but, he was in no way going to ever turn Lee. He held onto a top cradle for like 30 seconds...didn't do anything with....didn't attempt anything with it. Lee was able to tack on another point at the end of the period due to Mueller's bone-headed leg holding fiasco. I guess that's the mental strength you're eluding to in your original post. 

The 3rd period was Mueller circling for 90% of the time. You could tell he wasn't comfortable on his feet against the likes of a technical & scrambling monster in Lee. Late in the period he was in another scramble, he lost that scramble again. 

Convincing 5-0 win for Lee. Very lethargic match by Mueller. Looked very timid on his feet and on top. I guess most wrestlers are very timid against Lee due to his scrambling ability. Mueller also was hanging on for dear life underneath. He did a very good job of that. I haven't watch Mueller a lot this year, but, I don't think that matters. I've looked at his wins and none of those guys resemble Lee's talent. He beat Schroder 6-2, Lee beat Schroder 15-0 in the 1st period. They both have MD's over the kid from UTC. 

Unless something drastically has changed in a year and/or injuries play a factor, I don't see how anyone could remotely pick Mueller over a 100% Lee. 

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1 hour ago, MrDream said:

The way I (and 99% of the audience) read the comment is that you were insinuating that Mueller's mental strength will be one of the reasons you were picking him.

Mueller's post-match interview reflected a man with character strength (admits fear, praises others) and confidence in his ability to beat Lee.   Stating something positive about Mueller does not imply something negative about Lee.  Maybe I need to be more explicit because this communication issue happens at home too.  Whenever I compliment my elder/younger children, my middle child always feels slighted that she was not also complimented.  

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8 minutes ago, jross said:

Mueller's post-match interview reflected a man with character strength (admits fear, praises others) and confidence in his ability to beat Lee.   Stating something positive about Mueller does not imply something negative about Lee.  Maybe I need to be more explicit because this communication issue happens at home too.  Whenever I compliment my elder/younger children, my middle child always feels slighted that she was not also complimented.  

Plus, Lee isn't perfect. He's pretty good in all positions, but he's not a particularly slick guy on his feet. He CAN be taken down, it's just really tough to do. He's quick, but there are guys faster than him. He's the best mat wrestler at 125, imo, and Mueller has to neutralize that if he can. 

If Mueller wrestles aggressively and keeps position I don't see any reason he can't keep the match close enough to Lee to steal it with a last second takedown. Lee is a huge favorite, don't get me wrong, but Mueller has a chance against him. 

I give Mueller credit for admitting he showed too much respect for Lee the first time around. That means something. Too much respect/caution on the mat can be an absolute killer. Remember Mark Branch? Squeaked into NCAAs with an 8-9 record, unseeded and wrestled the #2 seed in the first round. Branch just said "screw it" and went balls out the entire tournament, proceeded to kick ass,  and I guarantee nobody saw him winning the whole shibang. 

Edited by TobusRex

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8 hours ago, headache said:

It's very easy to look at a wrestler as the sum of his skill set. However, great wrestlers like Gable, John Smith, and Burroughs are supreme competitors. They find a way to win. IMO, Spencer Lee is one of those competitors. Mueller may beat him, but he is not going to be able to replay the last match. It ain't that simply against a competitor.

There are great wrestlers out there that you just know will find a way to win. There are many special wrestlers out there, but I think Yianni is the magic kid for this generation. Kid just wins, no matter what, and sometimes it ain't pretty. Yianni's going to win some world championships before he's done, lack of triceps notwithstanding :D

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14 minutes ago, TobusRex said:

Plus, Lee isn't perfect.

<sarcasm> Umm, have you read the Hawkeye Report?  Lee is either perfect, injured, or sick.  A 100% Lee is the best there is, the best there was,  and the best there ever will be.

To Lee's credit, Lee can probably count on one hand how many times he has been taken down in the past three folkstyle seasons.  Rivera is the main guy that has had folkstyle TD success.  In freestyle at senior nationals, Tomasello took him down one time.  I don't recall any other TDs scored against Lee.  

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49 minutes ago, jross said:

<sarcasm> Umm, have you read the Hawkeye Report?  Lee is either perfect, injured, or sick.  A 100% Lee is the best there is, the best there was,  and the best there ever will be.

To Lee's credit, Lee can probably count on one hand how many times he has been taken down in the past three folkstyle seasons.  Rivera is the main guy that has had folkstyle TD success.  In freestyle at senior nationals, Tomasello took him down one time.  I don't recall any other TDs scored against Lee.  

You mean at Senior Nationals only? In NCAA, Lee has been taken down more than you think but almost always after he fades in the later periods. Bresser, Glory, Picc, Guiterrez, Rivera have all found good success against him once he gets tired. Last year, I think even Mackall took him down late (not sure though)
Lee is almost untouchable until he gets tired. He is certainly beatable though. He is not top 3 in the world as another poster suggested. He might not even be top 3 in the country. Gilman, Fix, Gross, Suriano, Colon would have something to say about that.

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2 hours ago, Wrestlingfan1997 said:

I got 8/10 right last year before the post season I’ve got 

125- Lee

133- Bravo young 

141- Pletcher 

149- Sasso

157- Hidlay

165- joseph 

174- Kemerer 

184- Zahid

197- Moore

285- Gable

No chance that prediction will be 8/10.

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48 minutes ago, Force118 said:

You mean at Senior Nationals only? In NCAA, Lee has been taken down more than you think but almost always after he fades in the later periods. Bresser, Glory, Picc, Guiterrez, Rivera have all found good success against him once he gets tired. Last year, I think even Mackall took him down late (not sure though)

In 64 folkstyle matches, Lee has been taken down less than 20 times.  He was bulldozed a couple times.  On several take downs, Lee was winning, would have a whizzer in, and would purposely relinquish the whizzer.  He was up big on points and didn't need to fight the take down.  I was surprised to see that Picc locked Lee up in cradles in multiple matches.  Mueller's team should break down this footage and game plan. :).  

Folkstyle - WrestleStat | https://www.wrestlestat.com/wrestler/49146/lee-spencer/profile

2020 Season

  • 14 matches - 1 TD
    • 11/24 Dual - Mackall had 0 TDs.  Mackall was on his own back and scored a reversal.  Lee won 17-2.
    • 11/17 Dual - Gutierrez had 1 TD.  Lee was up 12-3 at the time and won 16-5.

2019 Season

  • 26 matches - 9 TDs
    • 3/21 NCAA - Picc had 0 TDs and 1 reversal
    • 3/9 BTen - Rivera had 2 TDs (later periods)
    • 2/24 Dual - Picc had 1 TD (put Lee straight to back in cradle in third period)
    • 2/3 Dual - Moisey had 2 TDs (first period, third period).  Lee won 18-4.
    • 12/29 Midlands - Glory had 0 TDs and two turns.  Lee faded hard after the first period (up 12-0) and held on for the 12-6 win.
    • 12/29 Midlands - Rivera had 3 TDs (first period, second period)
    • 12/1 Dual - Mackall had 1 TD (third period - Lee fades badly)
    • 11/16 Dual - Glory had 0 TDs and 1 reversal.  Lee won 18-2.

2018 Season

  • 24 matches - 8 TDs
    • 3/15 NCAA - Tomasello had 1 TD (second period)
    • 3/15 NCAA - Picc has 0 TDs.  Lee is winning 11-1 and WBF in 2nd period.
    • 3/3 BTen - Rivera has 0 TDs.  Lee wins 12-0.
    • 3/3 BTen - Tomasello had 1 TD.
    • 2/4 Dual - Rivera had 2 TDs (third period)
    • 1/21 Dual - Tomasello had 1 TD.
    • 1/14 Dual - Picc had 2 TDs (second period, third period, had multiple cradles locked)
    • 12/29 Midlands - Bresser had 1 TD (third period)

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23 minutes ago, jross said:

In 64 folkstyle matches, Lee has been taken down less than 20 times.  He was bulldozed a couple times.  On several take downs, Lee was winning, would have a whizzer in, and would purposely relinquish the whizzer.  He was up big on points and didn't need to fight the take down.  I was surprised to see that Picc locked Lee up in cradles in multiple matches.  Mueller's team should break down this footage and game plan. :).  

Folkstyle - WrestleStat | https://www.wrestlestat.com/wrestler/49146/lee-spencer/profile

2020 Season

  • 14 matches - 1 TD
    • 11/24 Dual - Mackall had 0 TDs.  Mackall was on his own back and scored a reversal.  Lee won 17-2.
    • 11/17 Dual - Gutierrez had 1 TD.  Lee was up 12-3 at the time and won 16-5.

2019 Season

  • 26 matches - 9 TDs
    • 3/21 NCAA - Picc had 0 TDs and 1 reversal
    • 3/9 BTen - Rivera had 2 TDs (later periods)
    • 2/24 Dual - Picc had 1 TD (put Lee straight to back in cradle in third period)
    • 2/3 Dual - Moisey had 2 TDs (first period, third period).  Lee won 18-4.
    • 12/29 Midlands - Glory had 0 TDs and two turns.  Lee faded hard after the first period (up 12-0) and held on for the 12-6 win.
    • 12/29 Midlands - Rivera had 3 TDs (first period, second period)
    • 12/1 Dual - Mackall had 1 TD (third period - Lee fades badly)
    • 11/16 Dual - Glory had 0 TDs and 1 reversal.  Lee won 18-2.

2018 Season

  • 24 matches - 8 TDs
    • 3/15 NCAA - Tomasello had 1 TD (second period)
    • 3/15 NCAA - Picc has 0 TDs.  Lee is winning 11-1 and WBF in 2nd period.
    • 3/3 BTen - Rivera has 0 TDs.  Lee wins 12-0.
    • 3/3 BTen - Tomasello had 1 TD.
    • 2/4 Dual - Rivera had 2 TDs (third period)
    • 1/21 Dual - Tomasello had 1 TD.
    • 1/14 Dual - Picc had 2 TDs (second period, third period, had multiple cradles locked)
    • 12/29 Midlands - Bresser had 1 TD (third period)

18 is actually more than I thought. Thanks for the detailed stats. Good stuff.

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15 hours ago, Force118 said:

You mean at Senior Nationals only? In NCAA, Lee has been taken down more than you think but almost always after he fades in the later periods. Bresser, Glory, Picc, Guiterrez, Rivera have all found good success against him once he gets tired. Last year, I think even Mackall took him down late (not sure though)
Lee is almost untouchable until he gets tired. He is certainly beatable though. He is not top 3 in the world as another poster suggested. He might not even be top 3 in the country. Gilman, Fix, Gross, Suriano, Colon would have something to say about that.

It's hysterical to me how people talk about how Lee gets "tired". Don't you think it's interesting to see that this year he all of a sudden doesn't get "tired". 

Freshman Year - Coming off of a torn ACL. I thought it was obvious, but, I guess I was wrong. When you tear your ACL your conditioning is going to suffer.....drastically. We saw that early on in Lee's freshman year. Still won a Natty....relatively easy. 

Sophomore Year - Lee developed mono. Again, I thought it was obvious, I guess not. Mono attacks the spleen and liver and leaves the person very fatigued. Good luck training with it. Still won a Natty.....relatively easy. 

Junior Year - All of a sudden Lee doesn't "conditioning" problems. When he's 100% healthy his conditioning isn't in question this year.....weird.......

 

Remember, Lee never had "conditioning" problems at the Cadet or Junior level either. He had some battles at World's and never faded....at least that I could see. 

 

Let's use probability.....Is it more likely that the injuries in 2018 & 2019 had something to do with Lee's conditioning or he just all of a sudden solved his conditioning problem in 2020? Let's use common sense people. 

Also note, both of Lee's Natty's came at the end of the year, when he should in theory be wore out. But, Lee was just getting back into near 100% form and absolutely pounded the field. 

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19 hours ago, MrDream said:

The way I (and 99% of the audience) read the comment is that you were insinuating that Mueller's mental strength will be one of the reasons you were picking him. Which is fine...if there is/was conclusive evidence in showing that his mental strength is greater than Lee's. There's zero evidence of this claim. Unless you see something everyone else doesn't....which I highly doubt. 

I would agree with the second part of the statement. If Mueller adjusts and wins from his feet he could definitely beat Lee. I just don't know how that would be accomplished. I rewatched the Finals match from last year. Mueller was bailed out by the clock at the end of the 1st, otherwise Mueller would have been in a deeper hole than just 2-0. Also, before Lee started to turn him in the last 10 seconds of the 1st Mueller was lifeless on the bottom. Not a great look. At no point in the first did Mueller have a legit chance on his feet to score. Very heavy footed straight forward wrestling. Trying one angle and then resetting....straight forward wrestlers with no combo shots aren't successful against Lee. 

The 2nd period was Mueller's chance to be the monster on top everyone talks about. He does very well at not allowing space between his body and his opponent's, but, he was in no way going to ever turn Lee. He held onto a top cradle for like 30 seconds...didn't do anything with....didn't attempt anything with it. Lee was able to tack on another point at the end of the period due to Mueller's bone-headed leg holding fiasco. I guess that's the mental strength you're eluding to in your original post. 

The 3rd period was Mueller circling for 90% of the time. You could tell he wasn't comfortable on his feet against the likes of a technical & scrambling monster in Lee. Late in the period he was in another scramble, he lost that scramble again. 

Convincing 5-0 win for Lee. Very lethargic match by Mueller. Looked very timid on his feet and on top. I guess most wrestlers are very timid against Lee due to his scrambling ability. Mueller also was hanging on for dear life underneath. He did a very good job of that. I haven't watch Mueller a lot this year, but, I don't think that matters. I've looked at his wins and none of those guys resemble Lee's talent. He beat Schroder 6-2, Lee beat Schroder 15-0 in the 1st period. They both have MD's over the kid from UTC. 

Unless something drastically has changed in a year and/or injuries play a factor, I don't see how anyone could remotely pick Mueller over a 100% Lee. 

Mueller looks about the same as last year. Lee looks closer to NCAA Tournament of freshman year which should be very scary for the field. IMO Lee has improved this season much more than Mueller. I dont really see that being much of a match. If he couldn't score when Lee was less than 100%, he isn't going to do it when Lee looks to be in the best shape of his life. 

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On 2/18/2020 at 7:56 AM, VakAttack said:

I should be clear, I think Woods is better than Murin, I just don't think you can seed or rank him that way based on his season so far.  Woods has a better loss, but nowhere near the quality of wins.

But wait Vak that would mean you're being objective. What are you doing on this message board? All kidding aside I wondered why Mueller did so well against Rivera and so poorly against Lee and I don't know that I could contribute at all to being too scared or giving too much respect. When you say Lee's a bad matchup for him what's the reasoning for that if you don't mind me asking?

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1 minute ago, ConnorsDad said:

But wait Vak that would mean you're being objective. What are you doing on this message board? All kidding aside I wondered why Mueller did so well against Rivera and so poorly against Lee and I don't know that I could contribute at all to being too scared or giving too much respect. When you say Lee's a bad matchup for him what's the reasoning for that if you don't mind me asking?

Lee is a bad matchup for anyone in the world.

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Just now, ConnorsDad said:

No ****, LOL. I've not seen Mueller wrestle but one time so I was trying to understand a little more why it's bad for him.

Because he's one of the 125's in the world.

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