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WillieBoy

CoronaVirus - Cancelling or moving Olympic Games

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Im in the Denver Metro and our first two cases have popped up seemingly overnight.  Is this the Walking Dead?  No.  Is this serious?  Yes.  Just because you are healthy doesn't mean you can get a little sick, carry it, and then be the delivery mechanism that kills your 80 year old neighbor when you try to be friendly and get their mail.  

The hysteria is for the birds, but so is pretending it's a nothing burger.  It's a something burger, just how big of a something burger remains to be seen.

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1 hour ago, irani said:

In that scenario, the games are not cancelled or postponed, so I lose!

Ahhhhh but the bet said "on schedule".  Part of that schedule is....what time the doors open to the public/spectators.  Without that, its not on schedule.

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When this thread started, the question was "will the situation deteriorate to the point where they will be forced to postpone, cancel or move the Olympics?"

The question now is "will the situation recover to the point where they will be able to keep the schedule as is?".

I am far less optimistic about the Olympics happening on schedule than I was before

 

Edited by irani

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27 minutes ago, irani said:

When this thread started, the question was "will the situation deteriorate to the point where they will be forced to postpone, cancel or move the Olympics?"

The question now is "will the situation recover to the point where they will be able to keep the schedule as is?".

I am far less optimistic about the Olympics happening on schedule than I was before

 

I think there is almost no chance they happen on schedule. Perhaps the situation will be improved enough by August to the point where we COULD have had them on schedule. However, the decision needs to be made by the IOC ahead of time (likely by May), and I think the odds that every part of the world has it under control by then are slim. 

Hopefully the IOC will keep in mind that Olympic athletes are probably the single lowest risk demographic when it comes to the virus. I’m hopeful the games will be delayed but still happen by the end of 2020...which I understand to be the deadline. Granted, it’s probably less about protecting the athletes and more about not potentially spreading the virus to every corner of the world if/when any infected athletes return home.

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3 hours ago, MDogg said:

I think there is almost no chance they happen on schedule. Perhaps the situation will be improved enough by August to the point where we COULD have had them on schedule. However, the decision needs to be made by the IOC ahead of time (likely by May), and I think the odds that every part of the world has it under control by then are slim. 

Hopefully the IOC will keep in mind that Olympic athletes are probably the single lowest risk demographic when it comes to the virus. I’m hopeful the games will be delayed but still happen by the end of 2020...which I understand to be the deadline. Granted, it’s probably less about protecting the athletes and more about not potentially spreading the virus to every corner of the world if/when any infected athletes return home.

just have them stay in the Olympic Village for another couple weeks?

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1 hour ago, 1032004 said:

just have them stay in the Olympic Village for another couple weeks?

It's a little more complicated than that.

 

  • The host country is hit badly with the virus.  Currently, US state department is advising against going to Japan.  If it's not under control in May, do you want to send athletes, referees , officials and news groups, there and do you ban the fans from going there?
  • 5 countries are hit badly with the virus, 4 of which placed in the top 10 in the last Olympics.  If they don't have it under control, do you want to have the Olympics without them?

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51 minutes ago, bnwtwg said:

I remember bird flu, swine flu, US election year flu...

5 months still to go. Olympics will proceed as financially scheduled by the IOC.

I don't recall any sporting events getting cancelled, or spectators getting banned during the bird flu, Sars etc.

Having said that, I hope we will be in a position that the Olympics can proceed as scheduled

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3 hours ago, bnwtwg said:

I remember bird flu, swine flu, US election year flu...

5 months still to go. Olympics will proceed as financially scheduled by the IOC.

Wasnt SXSW just called off? That’s a pretty big annual event with a wide draw of attendees and significant economic impact. Much younger and less at-risk crowd too, but it was still canceled.

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Santa Clara county in California just banned gatherings over 1K people. It's where the San Jose Sharks play and the NCAAW Tourney was supposed to have some games there too.

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Interesting WSJ article today. A member of the executive board of Japan’s organizing committee saying if the games don’t proceed as scheduled the most realistic option is to delay them 1 or 2 entire years. They’ve already sold the TV rights and that makes it hard to move them to a different time of year. NBC paid $1.1 billion for the US rights thinking it would be in August. Move the games back a few months and US ratings would take a big hit because they’d be competing with college football, NFL and potentially MLB playoffs. He said a 2 year delay probably made more sense than a 1 year delay for planning purposes. 

Encouragingly he said they won’t be cancelled or held without spectators because the cost would be too high.

TONS of big implications for the US team if the games are delayed 2 years. In August of 2022 JB will be 33 years old and Dake and Taylor will be 31. 

Plus there would be a shortened 2 year Olympic cycle between 2022 and 2024. That would open up the possibility of guys like Daton Fix and Mekhi Lewis (who have only used one season of eligibility and are on Olympic redshirt this season) taking THREE Olympic redshirt seasons while in college. I’m not saying they’d do it (would mean they take 8 years total in college)...but just one of the interesting implications to think about. 

Edited by MDogg

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3 hours ago, MDogg said:

Interesting WSJ article today. A member of the executive board of Japan’s organizing committee saying if the games don’t proceed as scheduled the most realistic option is to delay them 1 or 2 entire years. They’ve already sold the TV rights and that makes it hard to move them to a different time of year. NBC paid $1.1 billion for the US rights thinking it would be in August. Move the games back a few months and US ratings would take a big hit because they’d be competing with college football, NFL and potentially MLB playoffs. He said a 2 year delay probably made more sense than a 1 year delay for planning purposes. 

Encouragingly he said they won’t be cancelled or held without spectators because the cost would be too high.

TONS of big implications for the US team if the games are delayed 2 years. In August of 2022 JB will be 33 years old and Dake and Taylor will be 31. 

Plus there would be a shortened 2 year Olympic cycle between 2022 and 2024. That would open up the possibility of guys like Daton Fix and Mekhi Lewis (who have only used one season of eligibility and are on Olympic redshirt this season) taking THREE Olympic redshirt seasons while in college. I’m not saying they’d do it (would mean they take 8 years total in college)...but just one of the interesting implications to think about. 

Wow, yah it'll be a pretty big procedural mess if the Olympic are postponed by 1-2 years rather than weeks or months. Crazy that the media companies could exert that kind of leverage, but there will probably be similar pushback if the new date overlaps with the FIFA World Cup, UEFAs, Tennis, Cricket, etc.

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The head of Japan’s Olympic organizing committee said that a 2-year postponement would be a non-starter. Article on today’s WSJ. The country’s Olympic minister also said that the IOC doesn’t have legal jurisdiction to cancel the 2020 Olympics if Japan doesn’t agree - it’ll come down to interpretation of the host city contract, though.

Interestingly, Japan could opt for a closed door Olympics without spectators, but the IOC could reject it. I am guessing it probably has something to do with the media rights and/or insurance policy for the summer games.

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