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Marcus Cisero

#1 Spencer Lee vs. #4 Nick Piccininni

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Lee is average at best and probably a below average wrestler in the third period. 

FLO put together these stats last year.  Not sure how much they have changed since then.

But note:  there is a significant drop off in his own scoring in the 2nd and 3rd periods and an increase (or near stability) in his opponents scoring in those periods relative to the first.

No doubt, the high numbers in the first period can be attributed to a great degree to his ability to tech fall many opponents then, but the fact remains, if you get to the 2nd and especially 3rd period, you can close the gap on him and even conceivably win.

Lee

1st

2nd

3rd

Opp

1st

2nd

3rd

2017-18

156

43

15

 

6

4

14

2018-19

131

9

2

 

5

9

5

Total

287

52

17

 

11

13

19

Average

7.972

2.364

1.308

 

0.306

0.591

1.462

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12 hours ago, Creek chub said:

Not an Iowa at all but Lee is gonna win convincingly. Lee is a machine, especially in the first two periods. Pic. did catch him so he has the skills to pull the upset. I would be surprised if Pic makes the podium this year. He seems to have peaked a year or two ago with younger talent closing the gap. True VT freshman latona gave him all he could handle and got the benefit of a non TD call that would have sent the match into SV

That's a ridiculous assessment on Picc. Picc's having a great year and bonusing the vast majority of his opponents. The only guy outside Lee that can keep Picc from the finals is Glory, and Picc has beaten Glory multiple times.

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10 hours ago, TBar1977 said:

You gotta be within 1 point of Lee entering the 3rd period, and honestly he still probably wins. He's a winner. He is the one guy in the NCAA who the opposition knows what he is going to do and still can't stop him. 

Match doesn't have to be particularly close. Short of a fall, yeah, Picc probably has to be close to have a shot.

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6 hours ago, steamboat_charlie v2 said:

Is there a chance Lee doesn't wrestle?  It's not like they need him to win the dual.... this place would be fun Monday after if so.  

I could be wrong but I thought Lee needed to wrestle in all of Iowa’s remaining duals in order to be eligible for RPI or something

Edited by 1032004

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5 minutes ago, 1032004 said:

I could be wrong but I thought Lee needed to wrestle in all of Iowa’s remaining duals in order to be eligible for RPI or something

I can't imagine him not being #1 seed if he wins B1G tourney, regardless if he wrestles again, but I don't know the rule

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43 minutes ago, TobusRex said:

That's a ridiculous assessment on Picc. Picc's having a great year and bonusing the vast majority of his opponents. The only guy outside Lee that can keep Picc from the finals is Glory, and Picc has beaten Glory multiple times.

The kid is good, no doubt. Mueller can beat him, Glory and a couple others too. Therefore I stand by my statement which is my opinion. Don’t forget he barely beat a true freshman, Sam latona. It could be that sam is that good though

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1 hour ago, dmm53 said:

Lee is average at best and probably a below average wrestler in the third period. 

FLO put together these stats last year.  Not sure how much they have changed since then.

But note:  there is a significant drop off in his own scoring in the 2nd and 3rd periods and an increase (or near stability) in his opponents scoring in those periods relative to the first.

No doubt, the high numbers in the first period can be attributed to a great degree to his ability to tech fall many opponents then, but the fact remains, if you get to the 2nd and especially 3rd period, you can close the gap on him and even conceivably win.

Lee

1st

2nd

3rd

Opp

1st

2nd

3rd

2017-18

156

43

15

 

6

4

14

2018-19

131

9

2

 

5

9

5

Total

287

52

17

 

11

13

19

Average

7.972

2.364

1.308

 

0.306

0.591

1.462

interesting, thanks dmm53!

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1 hour ago, dmm53 said:

A link to the full article (written last year) on Lee's scoring (including references to high school and Lee's losses).  

When top guys shut him down or control the points in the first period, they have a pretty good chance against him.

https://www.flowrestling.org/articles/6329196-spencer-lees-career-scoring-broken-down-by-period

I've said it many times - although I like Lee and admire his abilities, he IS vulnerable - particularly in the 3rd period.

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13 minutes ago, AKHUNTER said:

Spencer Lee doesn't wrestle very many second or third periods............ sooooooo OF COURSE he doesn't score in those periods........ the graph is pretty meaningless in this instance.

To have any meaning the above table should show avg score per minute wrestled in each period.

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7 minutes ago, hammerlockthree said:

I would take Piccinini if given 3-1.

Technically that would be an even money bet since Lee has already beaten Picc 3 out of 4 matches. Odds should be 4 to 1 to encourage betting.

Edited by TobusRex

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1 hour ago, AKHUNTER said:

Spencer Lee doesn't wrestle very many second or third periods............ sooooooo OF COURSE he doesn't score in those periods........ the graph is pretty meaningless in this instance.

While you are correct that he doesn't wrestle often into those periods, when he does, his scoring is often either less than or barely equal to his opponents, which is the relevant and, yes, meaningful point.  In other words, he fades or gases and is vulnerable.  

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9 hours ago, AKHUNTER said:

Spencer Lee doesn't wrestle very many second or third periods............ sooooooo OF COURSE he doesn't score in those periods........ the graph is pretty meaningless in this instance.

Agreed, wouldn’t it also just imply that those that score on him in the 2nd and 3rd period are much better wrestlers, hence why they made it to the 3rd period.  

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7 hours ago, dmm53 said:

While you are correct that he doesn't wrestle often into those periods, when he does, his scoring is often either less than or barely equal to his opponents, which is the relevant and, yes, meaningful point.  In other words, he fades or gases and is vulnerable.  

Are you sure?  Pretty certain if he wrestled the guys he teched in 1 period, he would still be rolling up the points in period 2 and 3, if the match continued.

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15 hours ago, Creek chub said:

The kid is good, no doubt. Mueller can beat him, Glory and a couple others too. Therefore I stand by my statement which is my opinion. Don’t forget he barely beat a true freshman, Sam latona. It could be that sam is that good though

I totally brain-farted on Mueller fixating on Lee/Picc/Glory. But I think Picc can beat Mueller. And I think you are giving Picc too little credit. He was unbeaten going into NCAAs last year and had the match within reach with Lee in the semis until last few seconds of desperation cost him another 5 points. Picc largely rode out Lee in the 2nd period, as well. This might shock you, but I wouldn't be stunned if Picc managed to steal one from Lee if he keeps it close until the 3rd, Lee's gas tank being his achilles heel. In fact, I think Picc is DUE an NCAA title and I think he'd have won more than one title if he hadn't been around in this "golden era" of 125 pound wrestling.

Btw: Latona is that good.

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5 hours ago, Mokoma said:

Agreed, wouldn’t it also just imply that those that score on him in the 2nd and 3rd period are much better wrestlers, hence why they made it to the 3rd period.  

Yeah, it's not as if Lee is struggling with mediocre guys or anything in the 3rd. On the rare occasion he makes it deep in the third it's usually against other elite guys.

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1 minute ago, TobusRex said:

Yeah, it's not as if Lee is struggling with mediocre guys or anything in the 3rd. On the rare occasion he makes it deep in the third it's usually against other elite guys.

It also could  be that when he wrestles a third period, he only needs a point or two to get his tech fall. For instance, he goes in leading 13-1; he gives up an escape and then gets a TD and 2  back points to  win  17-2, thus  winning the third period by only 4-1.

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27 minutes ago, NJDan said:

It also could  be that when he wrestles a third period, he only needs a point or two to get his tech fall. For instance, he goes in leading 13-1; he gives up an escape and then gets a TD and 2  back points to  win  17-2, thus  winning the third period by only 4-1.

Good point, didn't even think of that perspective!

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