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Marcus Cisero

#1 Spencer Lee vs. #4 Nick Piccininni

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On 2/21/2020 at 7:30 PM, dmm53 said:

Lee is average at best and probably a below average wrestler in the third period. 

FLO put together these stats last year.  Not sure how much they have changed since then.

But note:  there is a significant drop off in his own scoring in the 2nd and 3rd periods and an increase (or near stability) in his opponents scoring in those periods relative to the first.

No doubt, the high numbers in the first period can be attributed to a great degree to his ability to tech fall many opponents then, but the fact remains, if you get to the 2nd and especially 3rd period, you can close the gap on him and even conceivably win.

Lee

1st

2nd

3rd

Opp

1st

2nd

3rd

2017-18

156

43

15

 

6

4

14

2018-19

131

9

2

 

5

9

5

Total

287

52

17

 

11

13

19

Average

7.972

2.364

1.308

 

0.306

0.591

1.462

Spencer Lee is Mike Tyson from Mike Tyson’s Punch Out!

Incredibly scary and brutal in the first round and crazy hard to get past the first round but then gets considerably easier in the second and especially the third. 

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20 minutes ago, StallWarning said:

Spencer Lee is Mike Tyson from Mike Tyson’s Punch Out!

Incredibly scary and brutal in the first round and crazy hard to get past the first round but then gets considerably easier in the second and especially the third. 

Just remember to dodge when his eyes flash!

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3 minutes ago, Marcus Cisero said:

I'm just curious now that the day is here, does everyone feel the Lee vs Pic match will even take place tonight? 

Percentage-wise, what's your thoughts?

I say 75% Yes / 25% No

I think it might happen. Even if Picc pins Lee again Lee will still be the top guy at NCAAs in all likelihood, long as he wins the B1G. But...Brands, so it might be duck season.

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Lee would most likely do better in the third period if we did not having matches end early with Technical Falls. You get a PIN or you keep wrestling the whole time. My belief is that is what it should be.

As far as Lee outclassing all the competition with his prolific scoring 1st and second periods, I have two words: Rob Rohn.

Rohn won his NCAA title by pin with 13 seconds left after trailing by more than 10 and looking outclassed much of the match.

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1 hour ago, Mphillips said:

Dominate he did.  I was a bit surprised how badly he smashed Picc.  No offense there Tobus...

None taken.  It's about what I expected, actually, but was thinking there was a good chance Picc might avoid giving up bonus pts. I was expecting something like 11-4, like their last match, but figured Picc had a puncher's chance. Picc got in very deep right off the bat, though, and couldn't convert. That's a killer, if he could've gotten that 2 and a rideout...well, could change the whole match. I was astonished at the terrible decision to take down in 2nd though. That was a  pretty stupid decision by somebody (probably OSU's coaches).

Edited by TobusRex

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On 2/21/2020 at 7:30 PM, dmm53 said:

Lee is average at best and probably a below average wrestler in the third period. 

FLO put together these stats last year.  Not sure how much they have changed since then.

But note:  there is a significant drop off in his own scoring in the 2nd and 3rd periods and an increase (or near stability) in his opponents scoring in those periods relative to the first.

No doubt, the high numbers in the first period can be attributed to a great degree to his ability to tech fall many opponents then, but the fact remains, if you get to the 2nd and especially 3rd period, you can close the gap on him and even conceivably win.

Lee

1st

2nd

3rd

Opp

1st

2nd

3rd

2017-18

156

43

15

 

6

4

14

2018-19

131

9

2

 

5

9

5

Total

287

52

17

 

11

13

19

Average

7.972

2.364

1.308

 

0.306

0.591

1.462

Horrible data.  The wrestlers who make it into the second and third period are the better wrestlers.  Therefore, they are more likely to score points and not be scored upon as much.  

The data is not controlled for ability of opponent.

I would bet you would see similar stats for almost any high level wrestler with a high number of pins or techs.  They crush the weaker wrestlers early in the match and end it, and the wrestlers who are better keep it close and actually are able to score.  

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This thread is pure comedy.....

It seems like people on this thread (and for that matter the entire Board) don't understand strategy. Wrestling is one of the only sports where you can be winning by 14 points and then thrown to your back and lose in 2 seconds. Strategy would tell us in a sport like this, when you are winning by a LARGE margin then your offense needs to take a back seat to your defense. Offense in the 3rd period needs to be calculated and coincide with the overall strategy to win. It's hysterical to me to see people call out Lee for conditioning issues when.....he's yet to lose a match due to conditioning this year. In the previous 2 years he had conditioning issues due to unforeseen health issues. 

Lee pounds a dude from Michigan for 2 periods solid. The kid didn't want to be out there. He laid on his belly for the better part of the entire match and because Lee didn't increase his lead by an arbitrary number.....he has gas tank issues. Get real. 

The concern for Lee's gas tank COULD BE RELEVANT if he's losing matches due to this issues. He's not. I would bet that he isn't even being outscored in the 3rd period this year. These are all made up flaws people are trying to grasp onto. 

 

Everyone side stepped a post I made in another thread......

LSU scored 11.6 points per 1st quarter this year......they conversely only scored 8 points per 4th quarter. Do you believe Oregeron believes that his football team has a conditioning problem? 

Edited by MrDream

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2 hours ago, AHamilton said:

Horrible data.  The wrestlers who make it into the second and third period are the better wrestlers.  Therefore, they are more likely to score points and not be scored upon as much.  

The data is not controlled for ability of opponent.

I would bet you would see similar stats for almost any high level wrestler with a high number of pins or techs.  They crush the weaker wrestlers early in the match and end it, and the wrestlers who are better keep it close and actually are able to score.  

Agreed. It is obviously skewed by the fact that most of his matches don't make it to the 2nd, let alone the 3rd period. If you removed all of the matches that ended early, it would could be more useful. The first and second period scoring would drop significantly and the opponents scoring would probably go up, because the guys that can go 3 periods with Lee are much better. But of course getting rid of all the techs drops our sample size to the point where it still ends up being useless.

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No accounting for 1) Limited matches making it to the 3rd period 2) Higher quality of opponents reaching the 3rd and 3) Necessity of scoring in the later stages of a match when you are handily ahead.   To suggest that someone gets more tired after 5 minutes of rag-dolling the entire country may be somewhat self-evident.

That data in a real-business scenario would get you fired or demoted.   In politics, you could be on cable news every evening.  

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  Yep, Iowa sure ducked all their wrestlers!  Who were you people who said that, you obviously are cowboy fans.  You must be afraid of Iowa and are mad your team is so bad this year.  Don't blame Iowa, blame John Smith.

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