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MDogg

How many weights does the Big 10 win this year?

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I think it could be the most in a long time. Over the past decade the most weights the Big 10 has won at NCAA’s is 7 and the fewest is 3. Most often it’s right around 6. I think the Big 10 could get 8 this year and has a chance at 9. I don’t think it’ll happen but a full sweep is a remote possibility and helped by the fact the conference weakest weight (184) happens to be by far the most wide open weight this year. It’s also only to point out how many studs in other conferences are taking Olympic red shirts (Yianni, Mekhi, Dean, Fix) or did whatever it is that guy in Tempe did. That’s a huge factor this year and why the conference could win 8+ weights.

Weights where B10 should be a decently heavy favorite to win:

125, 133, 141, 165, 174, 285

Weights where the B10 should have the #1 seed but not the heavy favorite:

149, 157, 197

197 could be classified in either group. Moore is undefeated with a 75% bonus rate, but I just can’t call him a heavy favorite to win in March. And I don’t see anyone in the conference behind him that’s a legit contender if he went down. 

That leaves 184 as the only weight where the B10 isn’t either the heavy favorite (dominant 1 seed or several of the top contenders) or the presumed overall #1 seed at the weight. And what do you know...184 is by far the most wide open weight this year. Somebody has to win the weight this year and of the lot I personally like Brooks chances more than anyone’s. Definitely not calling him the favorite though.

I’d set the betting line at 7 and if forced to bet one side or the other I’d take the over. I think 6 is a lock and out of all the remaining 4 weights they are more likely to win 2 than to win 0: 149, 157, 184, 197. I think the most likely outcome is the Big 10 wins 7 weights and the bet is a push. 

If not for Olympic Red Shirts and the ZV situation the B10 would be lucky to get 5 this year. 

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17 minutes ago, fightingsioux said:

I think you're being too conservative. They win 9, with only 184 going elsewhere.

Then count all the seconds, thirds, fourths, etc. It's hard to think of any college sport where one conference is this dominant.

Maybe setting the over/under at 7 was low and it should be 7.5...but I wouldn’t bet on 9. It shouldn’t surprise anyone if Hidlay wins 157, O’Conner wins 149 and Kollin Moore drops a match in the NCAA tournament out of nowhere (Noah Adams is being slept on). 

Plus another Mekhi Lewis could pop up in the form of David Carr, Real Woods, or Shane Griffith. The Big 10 was considered a real heavy favorite at 165 and 184 last year. 

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They will win 7 or 8 this year.  The B10 is favored pretty strongly in 7 weights 125, 133, 141, 165, 174, 197, and 285.  The other 3 weights it is much less a lock for B10 guys.  If Zahid shows up at Pac 12 s then he is a heavy favorite at NCAAs - without Zahid it is still a long shot for B10 at this weight - B 10 s main contenders are Venz & Brooks vs Lujan, Hidlay, Bolan, DePrez.  At 149 you have a more even match up.  Lugo, Sasso, & Lee vs O'Connor, Kolodzik, Mauller, Boo L. This weight could go either way.  157 is also a toss up B 10s has Deakin & Young vs Hidlay, Carr & Monday.   I say the B 10s will win 7 this year. 

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B1G gets 7 or 8 this year. 149 and 184 have realistic chances for the conference to not finish top 4 in either weight. My toss-up is either Deakin or Carr at 57 and they may meet in the semis. I have a feeling Hidlay is going to go down as a "best to never" candidate which is a shame

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1 hour ago, bnwtwg said:

B1G gets 7 or 8 this year. 149 and 184 have realistic chances for the conference to not finish top 4 in either weight. My toss-up is either Deakin or Carr at 57 and they may meet in the semis. I have a feeling Hidlay is going to go down as a "best to never" candidate which is a shame

It’d be a travesty if Deakin and Carr meet in the semi’s. Assuming Deakin beats Young again at B1G’s he’ll have the 1 seed locked up. Hidlay should be the the 2 and Carr the 3 assuming they both take care of business at their conference tourney’s. It’d be outrageous for them to seed anyone else ahead of Carr and bump him to the 4 spot. 

I’m not too familiar with how they weight different things when it comes to seeding NCAA’s...but I do worry the committee might ding him over the fact that since January 26th he’s only wrestled once and that was at an open tournament where he won 1 match and then medical forfeited the next 2. 

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