Arnold Classic Banning, 'most' spectators from event

[rpbobcat 51]

I just listened to Gov. Coumo's Press conference.

A few interesting points:

1.The death rate for '"flu" in  the U.S. is about 0.6%.

     The death rate for Corona,is currently 1.4%.

     That % is expected to drop, as a greater number of people are diagnosed with the virus.

2.He said that they are now testing a larger number of people.

  More people tested means,mathematically,there will be more positive tests.

3.Of the people who test positive for the virus,80% will "self heal".

4.The 20% who need further treatment seem to be primarily the elderly, with "underlying"

    health issues.

   Especially  respiratory.

5.They are most concerned with nursing homes,senior living facilities,etc.

 

I'm not a big Cuomo fan.

But he handled this Press Conference,including the follow up 

questions,very well.

 

 

 

[DocBZ 88]

33 minutes ago, rpbobcat said:

I just listened to Gov. Coumo's Press conference.

A few interesting points:

1.The death rate for '"flu" in  the U.S. is about 0.6%.

     The death rate for Corona,is currently 1.4%.

     That % is expected to drop, as a greater number of people are diagnosed with the virus.

2.He said that they are now testing a larger number of people.

  More people tested means,mathematically,there will be more positive tests.

3.Of the people who test positive for the virus,80% will "self heal".

4.The 20% who need further treatment seem to be primarily the elderly, with "underlying"

    health issues.

   Especially  respiratory.

5.They are most concerned with nursing homes,senior living facilities,etc.

 

I'm not a big Cuomo fan.

But he handled this Press Conference,including the follow up 

questions,very well.

 

 

 

That 1.4% is not correct as the VAST majority of cases are currently unresolved. The current death rate is 6% based on know outcomes of death or recovery although this is likely to fall. He's also wrong about the 0.6% Flu death rate which is much closer to 0.1% according to the CDC.

BTW that 1.4% comes from a study done by Chinese doctors and officials at Chinese hospitals and only based on 1000 cases.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2002032

Edited March 4 by DocBZ

[TheOhioState 409]

4 hours ago, DocBZ said:

It may get there but it is currently 6% based on KNOWN outcomes.

Nope.  You are wrong,.  It's 3.4% as of today, as reported by the World Health Organization. 

Maybe you have a better source.  


https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-opening-remarks-at-the-mission-briefing-on-covid-19---4-march-2020

 

[1032004 780]

14 minutes ago, TheOhioState said:

Nope.  You are wrong,.  It's 3.4% as of today, as reported by the World Health Organization. 

Maybe you have a better source.  


https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-opening-remarks-at-the-mission-briefing-on-covid-19---4-march-2020

 

Sounds like he is basically removing all the people who have not yet "recovered," regardless of how mild their symptoms are.  Talk about skewing the data...

[DocBZ 88]

6 minutes ago, TheOhioState said:

Nope.  You are wrong,.  It's 3.4% as of today, as reported by the World Health Organization. 

Maybe you have a better source.  


https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-opening-remarks-at-the-mission-briefing-on-covid-19---4-march-2020

 

"Fauci also made a point to note that the WHO fatality rate -- 3.4% -- is incomplete because the denominator of asymptomatic cases is currently unknown." ie unknown outcomes are included. It could very well be lower or higher than 3.4%. I have yet to see WHO disclose their methodology for that number.

https://abcnews.go.com/International/coronavirus-live-updates-countries-scramble-outbreak-case-numbers/story?id=69381834

 

These are the 2 sites I use to track it. Based on TRUE endpoint outcomes...death or recovery the mortality rate is currently 6% but dropping daily and will likely end up below 5% IMO. I think it's important to use true outcomes in able to properly compare it to other virus's such as influenza and SARS. Yes it's true that we are under testing people but the same can be said for influenza and other virus's

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019–20_coronavirus_outbreak

 

The site below is good to track US cases.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_outbreak_in_the_United_States

[DocBZ 88]

8 minutes ago, 1032004 said:

Sounds like he is basically removing all the people who have not yet "recovered," regardless of how mild their symptoms are.  Talk about skewing the data...

If you are referring to me I am just going by statistics not predictions or estimations which can be wildly off in both directions and subject to bias. China has almost 50K cases that have already recovered and their mortality rate is still hovering around 6%.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019–20_coronavirus_outbreak_by_country_and_territory

 

Here is a good article by leading experts  explaining why the 3.4% is incomplete at best.

https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-who-director-generals-comments-that-3-4-of-reported-covid-19-cases-have-died-globally/

Edited March 4 by DocBZ

[cu155 14]

People are going to be unpleasantly surprised with the spike in cases the US is going to see in a few more days.

[Panther78 31]

Did they shut down Disneyland????

Exactly.....................

[goheels1812 504]

It’s also tough to pinpoint a precise mortality rate when China lies about everything to try and make themselves look better. Who knows what the actual numbers in China look like. I’d wager the reality isn’t what they are reporting. 

[KSchlosser 98]

I think people underestimate the size and scope of the Arnold Classic. Last year at the Arnold there were approx 20,000 athletes from over 75 countries (many of whom are fresh off the boat). Combined with competitors from all 50 states and an attendence over 200,000 for at least the last five years, and you have a petri dish in the heart of Ohio.

Putting the Arnold in context, no event in central Ohio brings in more international attendees or competitors than the Arnold and only Ohio State football (8 home games), OSU basketball (20+ home games), NHL Blue Jackets (40+ home games) bring in more attendees and revenue with the Arnold ahead of the MLS Crew, AAA MLBB Clippers, and the Gay Mens SB World Series

Columbus has long embraced the cow town monicker but with 2.100,000 in the metro area that is more people in Central, Ohio alone than the population of the entire states of Wyoming, Vermont, Alaska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Delaware, and more than the states with more than a 1,00,000 residents of Rhode Island, Montana, Maine, New Hampshire, Hawaii, West virginia, Idaho, Nebraska, and New Mexico.

I am not ready to shut down the city/state/country over fears, but I think the Arnold is taking appropriate level of precaution given where their competitors come from and the size, scope, and origin of the fans walking through the doors. While the vast majority of the athletes at The Arnold are healthy, the potential is there to become a hot spot for transmission without restrictions or precautions

Edited March 4 by KSchlosser

[1032004 780]

17 minutes ago, goheels1812 said:

It’s also tough to pinpoint a precise mortality rate when China lies about everything to try and make themselves look better. Who knows what the actual numbers in China look like. I’d wager the reality isn’t what they are reporting. 

So are they understating it or overstating it now?  Can’t keep up

[TBar1977 3,725]

31 minutes ago, goheels1812 said:

It’s also tough to pinpoint a precise mortality rate when China lies about everything to try and make themselves look better. Who knows what the actual numbers in China look like. I’d wager the reality isn’t what they are reporting. 

Agree that China lies about everything.

[Mphillips 603]

UPDATE

Newest press conference from Columbus and the Arnold...Spectators are now welcome. Vendors are not. What a circus.

[goheels1812 504]

38 minutes ago, 1032004 said:

So are they understating it or overstating it now?  Can’t keep up

Does anyone really know the answer to that? China has a history of doing anything they can to give off the perception that they are competent during crisis. Often times they are not at all competent. But the Chinese government has no problem fudging data if it makes them look in control of a situation. Here’s a good article if you’re interested. 
 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/02/15/heres-why-the-white-house-doesnt-trust-chinas-coronavirus-numbers.html

Edited March 4 by goheels1812

[Mphillips 603]

Arnold called and said, "I will NOT be back."

[DocBZ 88]

1 hour ago, Mphillips said:

UPDATE

Newest press conference from Columbus and the Arnold...Spectators are now welcome. Vendors are not. What a circus.

Hmm? Seriously? Not seeing this news...

[DocBZ 88]

59 minutes ago, goheels1812 said:

Does anyone really know the answer to that? China has a history of doing anything they can to give off the perception that they are competent during crisis. Often times they are not at all competent. But the Chinese government has no problem fudging data if it makes them look in control of a situation. Here’s a good article if you’re interested. 
 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/02/15/heres-why-the-white-house-doesnt-trust-chinas-coronavirus-numbers.html

Anyone that trusts anything that China does is probably from China.

[Mphillips 603]

6 minutes ago, DocBZ said:

Hmm? Seriously? Not seeing this news...

Just watched another live press conference at 6pm. FFS,  I'm not looking for notoriety here...

[DocBZ 88]

I'm guessing this is what you are referring to. 4K spectators will be allowed in the finals. That's still a lot better than the 200K that usually are around.

https://www.foxnews.com/us/ohio-arnold-sports-festival-closed-to-spectators-coronavirus

Interesting sidenote...

 

Around 20 athletes from five countries impacted by the coronavirus -- China, Iran, South Korea, Japan and Italy --  will be excluded. All other athletes will be asked if they have traveled to affected countries. 

 

Seems like a good compromise IMO

 

 

Edited March 5 by DocBZ

[Mphillips 603]

20 minutes ago, DocBZ said:

I'm guessing this is what you are referring to. 4K spectators will be allowed in the finals. That's still a lot better than the 200K that usually are around.

 

 

 

Nope.  Terrible guess.  That was yesterday's news.  Today at 6pm...Spectators are in, no vendors.  Come on...you can work google.

https://abc6onyourside.com/

Edited March 5 by Mphillips

[DocBZ 88]

33 minutes ago, Mphillips said:

Nope.  Terrible guess.  That was yesterday's news.  Today at 6pm...Spectators are in, no vendors.  Come on...you can work google.

https://abc6onyourside.com/

Says negotiating...doubt they will win. Big money fat cats don't have a leg to stand on versus a serious threat to public health.

[Mphillips 603]

Just now, DocBZ said:

Says negotiating...doubt they will win. Big money fat cats don't have a leg to stand on versus a serious threat to public health.

They broke in with that after tonight's 'presser.'  I **** you not.  It's a circus in CBUS.

[TheOhioState 409]

"The expo, which is the largest congregator of people, is completely shut down," Ketchell said.

Officials said the kid's expo will go on as planned.

 

[BigTimeFan 943]

11 hours ago, TBar1977 said:

H1N1 2009 - 60.8 million Americans infected and estimated deaths as high as 18,000 Americans. It barely made a mention in Wkipedia's Major US Events of 2009. One lone entry, the same as number of mentions as the balloon boy hoax, an earthquake in the middle of the Pacific Ocean, and a satellite crashing shortly after launch in Antarctica. Fewer mentions than the death of Michael Jackson and the whole Elin - Tiger Woods drama.  

This isn't to dismiss Coronovirus as a story, but rather to shine a light on how things were handled with a similar viral outbreak just 10.5 years ago. How the HYSTERIA today dwarfs the reaction in 2009. 

 

Mind the hysteria has a lot to do with the draconian measures China took to prevent the spread and the huge economic cost. It’s a kind of where there’s smoke there’s fire thing. 

[BigTimeFan 943]

5 hours ago, cu155 said:

People are going to be unpleasantly surprised with the spike in cases the US is going to see in a few more days.

Yes. The US has barely been able to test until now. We have only tested people who were obviously in contact with known cases and who had serious symptoms. I would add that for all the undiagnosed cases that are going to drive the mortality rate down there are a lot of people who are going to die that have not yet died as well. A death rate of 3% means one in thirty three die. It also means that for every thirty three undiagnosed cases you only need one person to die who hasn’t yet died to maintain the 3% mortality rate.
 

The big worry is that a big outbreak could stress the medical system. There are one million hospital beds in the US. How long would it take to overwhelm? Unchecked cases double every seven days. Twenty percent are serious. So here’s the math. There are approximately 100 cases in the US now. To get to 5 million cases (of such 20% is one million) needs 13 to 14 weeks of unchecked spread at which point there’d be 5 million cases and if 20% are serious then every hospital bed in the US might occupied by a corona virus patient. Of course we might get lucky and the virus might die down as spring arrives. But the issue is that people can be asymptotic for a week and spread it merely by touching a doorknob which you subsequently touch because the virus can live on hard, non porous surfaces for up to a week. This is the worry.