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Wrestlers who earned AQ slots, but will need an at-large bid

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6 minutes ago, Cptafw164 said:

 I don’t think a new coaches poll or RPI will be calculated for At Large.

All 3 metrics (Win Pct, RPI, & CR) are revised AFTER the Qualifiers & prior to selecting At-Larges & Seeding the Bracket.

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8 minutes ago, rpbobcat said:

I hate to show ignorance,but could someone please explain how if you got an AQ,you need an at large bid ?

 

 

AQs are earned by individuals for their conference (tournament); they do not belong to the wrestler himself.  He has to finish high enough in the tournament to qualify.

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2 hours ago, Cptafw164 said:

Here are my thoughts:

High chances:
125:  Colaiocco has big wins over top 15 guys.  Ranking and RPI to carry him.

133:  I am putting Trampe here because someone behind t he scenes has been high on him all year.  He was ranked top 10 in the preseason (intermat only) despite 4th in the EIWA and 1-2 at NCAAs.  He also held position through inactivity.  Only after his 2 losses at the end of the year was he dropped to top 15.  

 

Medium chances:

HWT:  Sullivan has too many wins over NQs and a strong RPI.  No bad losses until the EIWAs where he was hurt.  His medical status will play a role, hence medium chances.

149:  Hoffman has a couple wins over notable guys (maruca, verkleeren) However, I don’t know how many wins he had over AQ competition.  Same with Ogunsanya, who had notable wins against Cole Martin and a MD victory against Jaron Jensen while Jenson was on fire.  However, those guys slid far from their highest spots in the rankings if not completely out which takes pizzaz out of those wins.   
 

low chances:

141: Pomrinca has a couple good wins, couple bad losses.  Has the highest of the low chance guys.  Wil Gil severely underperformed at EIWAs.    

184:  Loew has some good wins, but some really bad losses in terms of margin of loss.  He lost by MD to DePrez at the dual plus MDs to Harvey and Stewart at EIWAs.  Not sure if the Wisman and Weiler wins can carry him.  Then again, hopefully the committee can see the EIWAs as a bad couple days and give him the benefit of the doubt since he WRESTLED and didn’t mfor.  Not like he was injured, but people will go to the big dance who didn’t even try.  

174:  looking at this season, Womack will be dinged for not enough competition for any good comparative analysis.  
 

197:  Koser had big wins against ranked conference guys, but didn’t back that up at EIWAs.  Not sure if he can pull an at large with conference reg season wins when there were already 6 slots.  
 

 

Pomrinca is in - he wrestled his way in.

Although it is not a transparent process, there are supposed to be clearly defined criteria for selecting the at-larges.  The same as the seeding criteria formula I believe.  H-T-H, common opponents, quality wins, conference placement, coaches rank, winning percentage, RPI.

The committee is supposed to stack up the competitors eligible for an at-large according to this formula. 

Sullivan and Trampe should be in.  They stack up very well in regards to the criteria, qualified a spot and Trampe finished one out of the AQ. Sullivan, defaulted out which should NOT hurt him.  Trampe and Sullivan are probably in the first one or two in in their weight class.  

I would have put Colaiocco in this group as well but there are 10 guys I think that earned a spot and then didn't grab their AQ at 125, so that gets a bit dicey.  The other 3 did not have many upsets at the conference tourneys.

Hoffman/Ogunsanya is more difficult.  Hoffman is better on most of the criteria but Ogunsanya just beat him H-T-H and for the first spot out of AQ. Add in that there are only 4 at-larges at 149 and only one may go. Hoffman is 2-1 on the year vs. PJ so I like his chances better.

Loew finished one out and was likely pretty close to qualified and will stack up pretty good. 184 also did not have many upsets, so I like his chances.  

Womack could be in trouble. DNP at EIWAs, lower winning pct, not good RPI, limited schedule so not a lot of quality wins (I see one).  Only four guys who earned AQs didn't make it at 174 so that helps, but any in the CR could really hurt.  Koser in a better situation than Womack in regards to criteria, but not by a ton, but there were only 3 guys who got upset and there are 6 at-larges at 197, so I like his chances better, but still dicey.

Wil Gil in a ton of trouble, probably needs a miracle.

Edited by dicemen99

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1 hour ago, dicemen99 said:

Pomrinca is in - he wrestled his way in.

Although it is not a transparent process, there are supposed to be clearly defined criteria for selecting the at-larges.  The same as the seeding criteria formula I believe.  H-T-H, common opponents, quality wins, conference placement, coaches rank, winning percentage, RPI.

The committee is supposed to stack up the competitors eligible for an at-large according to this formula. 

Sullivan and Trampe should be in.  They stack up very well in regards to the criteria, qualified a spot and Trampe finished one out of the AQ. Sullivan, defaulted out which should NOT hurt him.  Trampe and Sullivan are probably in the first one or two in in their weight class.  

I would have put Colaiocco in this group as well but there are 10 guys I think that earned a spot and then didn't grab their AQ at 125, so that gets a bit dicey.  The other 3 did not have many upsets at the conference tourneys.

Hoffman/Ogunsanya is more difficult.  Hoffman is better on most of the criteria but Ogunsanya just beat him H-T-H and for the first spot out of AQ. Add in that there are only 4 at-larges at 149 and only one may go. Hoffman is 2-1 on the year vs. PJ so I like his chances better.

Loew finished one out and was likely pretty close to qualified and will stack up pretty good. 184 also did not have many upsets, so I like his chances.  

Womack could be in trouble. DNP at EIWAs, lower winning pct, not good RPI, limited schedule so not a lot of quality wins (I see one).  Only four guys who earned AQs didn't make it at 174 so that helps, but any in the CR could really hurt.  Koser in a better situation than Womack in regards to criteria, but not by a ton, but there were only 3 guys who got upset and there are 6 at-larges at 197, so I like his chances better, but still dicey.

Wil Gil in a ton of trouble, probably needs a miracle.

Messed up 141.  Thought that weight only had 4 quals (must have been thinking 149).  
 

Other conferences with limited AQs tweak the placements because of one big “what if:”

What if any 1-4 seeds get upset in the semis and there are only 4 AQs?  It makes a 3/4 cons semi.  

Maybe the EIWA will do a true <insert final AQ place> in the future if some AQ earners who placed outside stay home.  

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The Process:

After the qualifying tournaments the Win %, CP, and RPI are re-calculated (Mar. 11th) and the at-large pool of wrestlers are determined and selected in order to fill out the field in the NCAA tournament.  All wrestlers at each weight class from the conference tournaments failing to secure automatic qualification to the NCAA tournament who have at least two of the following six criteria are in the pool and the At-Large wrestlers are then selected from this pool (used to be called Bronze, they dropped that this year).

.700 winning percentage or better (against Div I opponents at weight only)

Top 33 RPI ranking (post-qualifying tournaments)

Top 33 CP ranking (Coaches' Panel post-qualifying tournaments)

.700 winning percentage or better against all competition (at weight only)

One or more wins against a wrestler who earned an AQ position at his qualifying tournament (the win can be at any point during the current season)

Placement one spot below the final AQ position at the qualifying tournament

 

Once the at-large pool has been determined, the following criteria are used to select At-Large wrestlers. 

Head-to-head competition  --  25 percent

Quality wins  --  20 percent

CP ranking  --  15 percent

Results against common opponents  --  10 percent

RPI ranking  --  10 percent

Qualifying event placement  --  10 percent

Win percentage  --  10 percent

 

Between four and seven wrestlers at each weight received At-Large bids in the 2017 through 2019 tournaments; you don't know in advance who the competition is.  If several top seeds at the conference tourneys fall below the AQs, they're the guys who will be getting the At-Large bids.  The list of the at-large pool of wrestlers is not published but I've heard that each weight class typically has 10-15 wrestlers in the pool.

 

They also choose two alternates at each weight and occasionally a couple of them get to wrestle.  

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On 3/6/2020 at 10:53 PM, Show_Me said:

And 285 Sullivan (Army)

Sullivan was on crutches at the end of the tournament and I think it was a new injury.  Even if he receives an at-large bid I don't expect that he'll wrestle.

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13 hours ago, klehner said:

AQs are earned by individuals for their conference (tournament); they do not belong to the wrestler himself.  He has to finish high enough in the tournament to qualify.

So,if I understand correctly.

A conference has 2 Aq's at 125.

The number 1 seed finishes 4th.

He would need an at large .

 

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44 minutes ago, rpbobcat said:

So,if I understand correctly.

A conference has 2 Aq's at 125.

The number 1 seed finishes 4th.

He would need an at large .

 

 

25 minutes ago, klehner said:

That is correct.

Thanks 

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16 hours ago, dicemen99 said:

Hoffman/Ogunsanya is more difficult.  Hoffman is better on most of the criteria but Ogunsanya just beat him H-T-H and for the first spot out of AQ. Add in that there are only 4 at-larges at 149 and only one may go. Hoffman is 2-1 on the year vs. PJ so I like his chances better.

 

In general, one way to look at things is to look at Pirate's list of who earned the spots but didn't get an AQ, then compare that to the last CP/RPI rankings.  At 149 there are four guys who earned but missed.  Tanner Smith and Max Thomsen are probably sure to get at-larges, which leaves two for the rest of the field.

Hoffman is third of the four in his average CP/RPI ranking, which is probably good.  Ogunsanya wasn't on either the CP or RPI rankings, which is bad for PJ but probably good for Hoffman.

Head-to-head is 25% of earning an at-large, and when they look at the results it won't matter if the win was the most recent or not.  Hoffman 2, PJ 1; CP and RPI combined are another 25% and Hoffman probably takes both.  I don't see Ogunsanya receiving an at-large over Hoffman, although they both could miss.

 

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1 hour ago, jdalu75 said:

In general, one way to look at things is to look at Pirate's list of who earned the spots but didn't get an AQ, then compare that to the last CP/RPI rankings.  At 149 there are four guys who earned but missed.  Tanner Smith and Max Thomsen are probably sure to get at-larges, which leaves two for the rest of the field.

Hoffman is third of the four in his average CP/RPI ranking, which is probably good.  Ogunsanya wasn't on either the CP or RPI rankings, which is bad for PJ but probably good for Hoffman.

Head-to-head is 25% of earning an at-large, and when they look at the results it won't matter if the win was the most recent or not.  Hoffman 2, PJ 1; CP and RPI combined are another 25% and Hoffman probably takes both.  I don't see Ogunsanya receiving an at-large over Hoffman, although they both could miss.

 

That's what I was saying, although I may not have been clear. Hoffman with the edge in criteria overall.  With only four it is unlikely that both are getting at-larges, I like Hoffman's chances over PJ. But there are humans on the committee, so you never know.  And, yes, Hoffman could miss as well, but he's a pretty solid 3rd or 4th as you stated.

Edited by dicemen99

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One thing I should have mentioned in my last post is that Hoffman and Ogunsanya don't exist in a vacuum.  While it's highly likely that Hoffman tops PJ, they'll be compared to everyone else in the pool and Ogunsanya could win more against the others that Hoffman.  I think it's unlikely, but it's possible.

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8 minutes ago, calot said:

SHP Where is the 48th at large coming from? I mustve missed someone who didn't compete at conferences that earned

did you already know about tyler morand? 

 

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I know 125 had a big pool of at large wrestlers, but why was Patrick McKee denied a bid?  I know he missed some matches late in the season due to injury, but surely he should have received the first at large bid?

Was he even in the pool?

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On 3/9/2020 at 9:06 PM, jdalu75 said:

Sullivan was on crutches at the end of the tournament and I think it was a new injury.  Even if he receives an at-large bid I don't expect that he'll wrestle.

What is the deadline for Army (or any program with an injured NCAA qualified wrestler) to inform the NCAA to replace Sullivan with an alternate ?

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4 hours ago, Show_Me said:

What is the deadline for Army (or any program with an injured NCAA qualified wrestler) to inform the NCAA to replace Sullivan with an alternate ?

Each weight brings an alternate ready to go at the last minute.

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14 hours ago, SetonHallPirate said:

Read again...McKee got in.

I was going off Flo's at-large list, which only listed Cardani and Aguilar from the B10.

Glad to learn that's wrong, and hope he's healthy by NCAAs.

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The Ivy League is canceling all spring sports; individual schools get to decide on what to do about winter sports for athletes/teams that make the postseason. Harvard already announced that they aren't going to play in the conference QF in hockey. I assume they aren't going to send anyone to Minneapolis, which opens up a few spots for alternates (Slavikouski is the only one I remember off the top of my head).

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