Toggling on NCAA? (Oh, for Christmas sake...)

[GreatWhiteNorth 164]

Now that so many of the Covid-19 deniers have turned the corner, seen the path (thank goodness), and have been converted to believing it is real (it is) ...

We now have a new problem in that the newly educated suddenly want to see the lights shut off on the NCAA tournament altogether. Before it was "it will be fine" and now suddenly it's 
"we have to cancel it all" ... Jeezus H Christmas. What happened to anything in-between?

Don't any of you flip-floppers understand a thermostat? Granted, it's complicated. But everything isn't always as easy as an on/off toggle switch.

The on/off mindset does keep things simple, but its horribly inappropriate for any topic that even begins to broach the complicated. (And we are about neck deep in complicated right now.)

Can you get behind a smart NCAA tournament that does it's best to protect the wrestlers, family, and staff - since they are in a relatively very-low-risk situation compared to the rest of society? Can we at least try to do that much?

Edited March 12, 2020 by GreatWhiteNorth

[Billyhoyle 1,987]

Everything depends on the next week.  If it keeps spreading exponentially as it has been, it will be canceled.  If the spread seems to stop, it can be held as planned without the fans. The issue is that even without fans, there will still be many people involved in the event.  Even though the fans won't be there, hundreds of athletes, plus their family, coaches, trainers, referees, media, etc will all be in one location.  Now, what if in the middle of the tournament a couple of people come down with a fever?  What if an athlete gets sick over those three days?  I'd like to see the tournament happen, but it's more complicating than getting two basketball teams together and playing a game in an empty stadium.  

 

So if 7 days from now there are 3000 positive cases instead of 1200, and it seems like there is no slowing down the spread, I doubt they will hold the tournament.  

[cjc007 636]

Everything depends on the next week.  If it keeps spreading exponentially as it has been, it will be canceled.  If the spread seems to stop, it can be held as planned without the fans. The issue is that even without fans, there will still be many people involved in the event.  Even though the fans won't be there, hundreds of athletes, plus their family, coaches, trainers, referees, media, etc will all be in one location.  Now, what if in the middle of the tournament a couple of people come down with a fever?  What if an athlete gets sick over those three days?  I'd like to see the tournament happen, but it's more complicating than getting two basketball teams together and playing a game in an empty stadium.  
 
So if 7 days from now there are 3000 positive cases instead of 1200, and it seems like there is no slowing down the spread, I doubt they will hold the tournament.  

Wow, 3,000 people infected out of 330 million. This is really serious. I'm going to buy a pallet of toilet paper immediately.

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[Billyhoyle 1,987]

8 minutes ago, cjc007 said:

Wow, 3,000 people infected out of 330 million. This is really serious. I'm going to buy a pallet of toilet paper immediately.

Sent from my moto z3 using Tapatalk
 

Do you understand how exponential growth works?

[tommygun 52]

Just now, Billyhoyle said:

Do you understand how exponential growth works?

Many have no clue.  At least you have been dealing in fact and shooting people straight.   Thank you. 

[cjc007 636]

Do you understand how exponential growth works?

Yes, that's why I'm terrified. Seriously scared. Wtf should I do now?

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[Billyhoyle 1,987]

8 minutes ago, cjc007 said:

Yes, that's why I'm terrified. Seriously scared. Wtf should I do now?

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Well it depends how old you are and what your underlying medical conditions are.  Just generally try to avoid crowds, work from home if you can, and don't leave your house if you start to feel sick.  Also, if you are young and have elderly parents/relatives, talk to them and check up on them.  Make sure they have what they need (e.g. offer to buy their groceries, pick up items for them, etc).  The most important thing is to protect the people you care about while limiting the potential to spread this throughout the general public.  The next 2 weeks are really going to be the critical thing that can either make this something that is just a minor change in the way we live our lives (like not being able to attend NCAAs for a year) or something that brings the entire medical system to its knees and sees an unimaginable death toll.  As slow and infuriating as the initial response/lack of testing has been from the government, I am hopeful that the tide is finally turning and people will start to take the necessary precautions.  

[calot 158]

It seems to be doubling every 3-4 days if that pace continues and Monday we have close to 3000 cases I see it being cancelled.

[jross 279]

What should one think?  Part of me wonders about the scarecrow, who needs a brain, and the lion, who needs some courage --- thinks there is some FUD and overreaction.  Keeping the fans out sounds like a good idea.  Preventing a few hundred wrestlers from competing is overdoing it.  

--------

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/coronavirus-cancel-everything/607675/

When the influenza epidemic of 1918 infected a quarter of the U.S. population, killing hundreds of thousands nationally and millions across the globe, seemingly small choices made the difference between life and death.

As the disease was spreading, Wilmer Krusen, Philadelphia’s health commissioner, allowed a huge parade to take place on September 28; some 200,000 people marched. In the following days and weeks, the bodies piled up in the city’s morgues. By the end of the season, 12,000 residents had died.

In St. Louis, a public-health commissioner named Max Starkloff decided to shut the city down. Ignoring the objections of influential businessmen, he closed the city’s schools, bars, cinemas, and sporting events. Thanks to his bold and unpopular actions, the per capita fatality rate in St. Louis was half that of Philadelphia. (In total, roughly 1,700 people died from influenza in St Louis.)

In the coming days, thousands of people across the country will face the choice between becoming a Wilmer Krusen or a Max Starkloff.

In the moment, it will seem easier to follow Krusen’s example. For a few days, while none of your peers are taking the same steps, moving classes online or canceling campaign events will seem profoundly odd. People are going to get angry. You will be ridiculed as an extremist or an alarmist. But it is still the right thing to do.

[GockeS 403]

2 hours ago, GreatWhiteNorth said:

Now that so many of the Covid-19 deniers have turned the corner, seen the path (thank goodness), and have been converted to believing it is real (it is) ...

We now have a new problem in that the newly educated suddenly want to see the lights shut off on the NCAA tournament altogether. Before it was "it will be fine" and now suddenly it's 
"we have to cancel it all" ... Jeezus H Christmas. What happened to anything in-between?

Don't any of you flip-floppers understand a thermostat? Granted, it's complicated. But everything isn't always as easy as an on/off toggle switch.

The on/off mindset does keep things simple, but its horribly inappropriate for any topic that even begins to broach the complicated. (And we are about neck deep in complicated right now.)

Can you get behind a smart NCAA tournament that does it's best to protect the wrestlers, family, and staff - since they are in a relatively very-low-risk situation compared to the rest of society? Can we at least try to do that much?

wasn't this you? did you just toggle? 

 8 hours ago, GreatWhiteNorth said:

Easily justified. Managing only 330 wrestlers isn't even a fraction of a drop in the bucket of what we are dealing with right now.

Two Boeing 727's can carry all of them with room for their coaches with room to spare.

If you think the NCAA's are "trending" toward cancellation - then you must think ending all airline travel is "trending" there, too. 

[RealAmericanHero 92]

4 hours ago, GreatWhiteNorth said:

Now that so many of the Covid-19 deniers have turned the corner, seen the path 

Are there people who actually believed that this virus does not exist? And have these individuals posted on this forum? If so, please quote them. Thank you in advance.

[pamela 1,334]

3 hours ago, tommygun said:

Many have no clue.  At least you have been dealing in fact and shooting people straight.   Thank you. 

Yes, to his credit @Billyhoyle has taken this outbreak seriously and been the voice of reason from the very beginning here.

He is absolutely right about this next critical week. Given the number of cases and the rate of new positive infections in the US, we are where Italy was roughly 7-10 days ago. A week to 10 days ago, Italian citizens didn’t think Coronavirus was serious, didn’t socially distance themselves or take extensive hygienic precautions, and the country took half-measures towards containment... and look where they are today with the epidemic. Italy is our bellwether, which is why things are moving fast here to hopefully flatten out a sharp spike in cases.

Edited March 12, 2020 by pamela

[fanta 46]

This is exponentially more serious than people think. The positive cases are being incredibly UNDER reported, so as not to cause a panic. Also, health care is struggling with the federal medical privacy laws like HIPPA. Which is also hindering full-disclosure on the actual breath and scope of the positive cases. My guesstimate is we're looking at over 100,000 people currently infected.

[madcat11 402]

1 hour ago, fanta said:

The positive cases are being incredibly UNDER reported, so as not to cause a panic. Also, health care is struggling with the federal medical privacy laws like HIPPA. Which is also hindering full-disclosure on the actual breath and scope of the positive cases. My guesstimate is we're looking at over 100,000 people currently infected.

This would be due to lack of testing, not HIPAA.

[Lipdrag 31]

1 hour ago, fanta said:

This is exponentially more serious than people think. The positive cases are being incredibly UNDER reported, so as not to cause a panic. Also, health care is struggling with the federal medical privacy laws like HIPPA. Which is also hindering full-disclosure on the actual breath and scope of the positive cases. My guesstimate is we're looking at over 100,000 people currently infected.

CDC says as of yesterday at 4;00 pm 938 cases and 29 deaths in USA.  If we actually have a 100x infection rate and still only 29 deaths then our fatality rate is .03% which is 1/10th as deadly as the flu.  That sounds like exponentially LESS serious than people think.

Edited March 12, 2020 by Lipdrag

[jross 279]

The Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act (HIPAA) promotes the sharing of personal health information (PHI) “when and where it is needed for patient care."  This fact sheet elaborates on how protected health information can be shared without the patient's permission.  Sharing information to the right people that manage population health is law compliant.

[madcat11 402]

1 hour ago, Lipdrag said:

CDC says as of yesterday at 4;00 pm 938 cases and 29 deaths in USA.  If we actually have a 100x infection rate and still only 29 deaths then our fatality rate is .03% which is 1/10th as deadly as the flu.  That sounds like exponentially LESS serious than people think.

Too early to say.  The largest study to date of hospitalized patients with known outcomes documents an average illness onset to hospital discharge of 22 days in survivors and illness onset to death of 18.5 days in non survivors.

[madcat11 402]

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Edited March 12, 2020 by madcat11

[madcat11 402]

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[russelscout 1,573]

I can't recommend this enough. Sorry I posted it on here already, but the brits do a great job of explaining why every decision is made. Very educational although its not about the USA, but I am sure our planning is similar.

[Housebuye 2,079]

Ok...you didn’t address the bulk of us who said the NCAA needs to make the best decision based on  safety, and are now saying it has gotten worse and it’s time to cancel 

[GreatWhiteNorth 164]

6 hours ago, GockeS said:

wasn't this you? did you just toggle? 

 8 hours ago, GreatWhiteNorth said:

Easily justified. Managing only 330 wrestlers isn't even a fraction of a drop in the bucket of what we are dealing with right now.

Two Boeing 727's can carry all of them with room for their coaches with room to spare.

If you think the NCAA's are "trending" toward cancellation - then you must think ending all airline travel is "trending" there, too. 

I am saying exactly this same thing as I was before.

I believe that we can have a smart tournament. No fans, only limited staff and family and careful, smart management of it. I don't believe we need to cancel (although the odds aren't looking great at this point.)

Let me try to explain this another way. If the rationale for cancelling is that the number of people, let's bump it up to an even 600 (3 planes each way) to include everyone, are travelling from all over to Mpls to wrestle, and then go back home and spread the virus - Then, by that same logic, we should be cancelling all air travel because MUCH more people are travelling than that every single day with the same potential to spread the virus (arguably more, because the wrestlers themselves are the bulk of the NCAA travelers and they are uber-healthy and at lower risk than the general population.) Since we are 'managing' air travel and not cancelling all flights, then logic dictates that we should be able to do the same for NCAA wrestling - manage it and not cancel it.

 

[GockeS 403]

i agree

but thats not how the original post here started. which i why i was confused.

i concede.

[fanta 46]

One way to obtain the "Socialist  Overthrow" of any Capitalist government - is to first 'Tank the Economy' so the people BEG for the government to take full control of their lives and freedoms. 

This is a great time for the Dems/Left to use this crisis as a catalyst  for their socialist agenda!

[Force118 97]

3 hours ago, Lipdrag said:

CDC says as of yesterday at 4;00 pm 938 cases and 29 deaths in USA.  If we actually have a 100x infection rate and still only 29 deaths then our fatality rate is .03% which is 1/10th as deadly as the flu.  That sounds like exponentially LESS serious than people think.

Spoiler alert. We can extrapolate what is happening with mortality rates in Italy to here. It’s not a special virus that discriminates only against europeans and foreigners. It’s not like Stephen Miller engineered it.