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Pan Am Qualifier draws

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Draws came out last night. If the event goes forward, here's our freestyle draw situation. Gilman vs. Ortega and the full recovery of Taylor's knee against a solid Torreblanca feel like the only questions in stopping us from qualifying all 4 weights:

57kg: Gilman gets Ortega, his only opposition, in the quarters and will have to win to qualify the weight. 

65kg: Zain avoids tough matches until the finals and should almost certainly qualify the weight.

86kg: The 4 best guys are all on the same side, including Taylor. He'll have his toughest match, Torreblanca, in the semis.

125kg: Gwiz is in a 6-man weight, where there are two pools of three, followed by the pool winners wrestling pool runners-up in the semi's. He's in the same pool as his toughest competition, Romero of Cuba. That's advantageous because, win or lose, he won't face Romero in the semi's; but will need to beat a slightly lesser opponent like Dhesi of Canada or Vivenes of Venezuela to advance to the final and qualify the weight.

 

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Our situation in women's freestyle:

50kg: Sarah Hildebrandt probably faces her toughest opponent, Macdonald of Canada, in the semi's. Macdonald is a past world champ, but she's 35 and hasn't had high world-level placement since 2013.

53kg: Jacarra Winchester gets the returning world medalist Cuban in her 3-woman pool, meaning she won't have to face her in the semi's when they cross bracket. She won't face anyone who's ever placed higher than 7th at worlds in her semi's match.

57kg: Maroulis faces world champ Morais of Canada right off the bat in her pool. As with Winchester and Gwiz, though, it's a benefit in pool-style cross-bracketing because the two are guaranteed not to face each other in the semi's and should both advance to the final and qualify the weight no matter the result of their pool match.

62kg: Kayla Miracle has former world medalist Renteria Castillo of Colombia in her pool and Fazzari of Canada in the opposite pool, so she'll most likely need to beat one of them to reach the final and place top 2.

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So it is just a regular tournament, and if you lose you can only go as high as 3rd? I guess "true second" was a pipe dream of mine.
I dont love Gilmans chances vs Ortega (who's looked great) but I mean I dont love them in a 50/50 sense not a 70/30 or anything like that.

I really think DT struggles with Torreblanca as well. Pace and awkward scrambles are DT's game while slowing matches down and exploding for a few points is Torreblanca's game... I wonder if DT will be able to implement his gameplan this soon back or if itll be a rusty performance. Pretty excited to see.

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20 minutes ago, spladle08 said:

So it is just a regular tournament, and if you lose you can only go as high as 3rd? I guess "true second" was a pipe dream of mine.
I dont love Gilmans chances vs Ortega (who's looked great) but I mean I dont love them in a 50/50 sense not a 70/30 or anything like that.

I really think DT struggles with Torreblanca as well. Pace and awkward scrambles are DT's game while slowing matches down and exploding for a few points is Torreblanca's game... I wonder if DT will be able to implement his gameplan this soon back or if itll be a rusty performance. Pretty excited to see.

I don't know. Aminr beat Torreblanca at Worlds last year. That means our top 4, and definitely DT will have no issues with him at all, ever again.

Jokes aside he did just beat Ringer, and I am still very much aboard the 'Ringer for #2' train. This will tell us a lot about DT's progression from injury.

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29 minutes ago, spladle08 said:

So it is just a regular tournament, and if you lose you can only go as high as 3rd? I guess "true second" was a pipe dream of mine.
I dont love Gilmans chances vs Ortega (who's looked great) but I mean I dont love them in a 50/50 sense not a 70/30 or anything like that.
 

Two time U23 world champ and finished 5th at Worlds.

Edited by Mphillips

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I don't know. Aminr beat Torreblanca at Worlds last year. That means our top 4, and definitely DT will have no issues with him at all, ever again.
Jokes aside he did just beat Ringer, and I am still very much aboard the 'Ringer for #2' train. This will tell us a lot about DT's progression from injury.
Hahahaha when I started reading this I was like please tell me he isnt one of those people: "Amine beat him, how can he possibly be good"....
But I only doubted you for a second :)
Agreed, great test to see where DT is at.

I assume we qualify all weights except maybe 57kg... I'm real uncomfortable there. But if we get that Ortega match won we are gold.

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46 minutes ago, spladle08 said:

So it is just a regular tournament, and if you lose you can only go as high as 3rd? I guess "true second" was a pipe dream of mine.

Yeah, Olympic qualifiers have been this way for a few cycles. It's especially annoying this cycle because there used to be two world olympic qualifying tournaments after the continental ones that allowed 5 more people in rather than just 2. So in a case like Gilman, we could lose to a top guy like Ortega and then have other top 5 or top 8 type guys as landmines in the world qualifier because they will have faced the same randomness at last year's worlds and their continental qualifiers.

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Yeah, Olympic qualifiers have been this way for a few cycles. It's especially annoying this cycle because there used to be two world olympic qualifying tournaments after the continental ones that allowed 5 more people in rather than just 2. So in a case like Gilman, we could lose to a top guy like Ortega and then have other top 5 or top 8 type guys as landmines in the world qualifier because they will have faced the same randomness at last year's worlds and their continental qualifiers.
Thanks for the info. And yes that's rough. Whew Go Gilman!!!!
Hoping we dont need that final qualifier for any weight but especially 57kg where the overall world depth is serious.

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What do people think the chances are that this gets wrestled? I have to be honest that I'm not holding my breath. I mean, Canada's PM's wife is diagnosed? All major N American sports are shutting down. All other olympic qualifiers have been postponed except this one. It will be a miracle in my mind if it goes forward and people don't get sent home this morning.

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1 minute ago, Mphillips said:

Am I correct in thinking that no one who has qualified can enter the last chance tourney?

Step 1: Six NOCs (nations) qualify through worlds and stop participating

Step 2: 8 NOCs qualify through 4 continental qualifiers and stop participating

Step 3: 2 NOCs qualify through the world olympic qualifier to round out the field

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What do people think the chances are that this gets wrestled? I have to be honest that I'm not holding my breath. I mean, Canada's PM's wife is diagnosed? All major N American sports are shutting down. All other olympic qualifiers have been postponed except this one. It will be a miracle in my mind if it goes forward and people don't get sent home this morning.
I would say, if greco starts, the tournament will run completely through. But hell they just golfed a full round at the Players and then scrapped it.... so who knows.... I feel it's going to happen but I also thought they wouldn't cancel NCAA's I know nothing

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I was just looking at the 57kg results at worlds: Asia is going to be an insane qualifier and leave 3 to 5 very tough guys still wanting spots.

Asian qualifier will have Japan (obvious credentials), Mongolia (Bekhbayar lost 4-4 to Atri of Iran), North Korea (lost 4-2 to Atri), Tajikistan (Ikramov lost 8-6 to Bakhbayov), Kyrgyzstan (Zhold lost 5-4 to Amiraslanov of Aze). I mean, if Japan and Mongolia are in the same half, an Olympic gold medal candidate will be at the World qualifier and we could draw into him in our half.

Europe has at least four good ones too in Azerbaijan (Amiraslanov of Aze lost 4-3 to Uguev and 4-4 to Bekhbayar), Ukraine, Georgia, Belarus (Andreu lost 4-2 to Atri also). 

Anyway...getting Ortega before the finals at 57kg this weekend has made qualifying this weight far from a done deal.

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USA Wrestling subcommittee for COVID-19 met on March 12th to discuss. The conclusion of the meeting is on the link below:

https://www.teamusa.org/USA-Wrestling/Features/2020/March/12/USA-Wrestling-statement-on-COVID-19-and-activities-going-forward

In a nutchell, only "essential" events are going be allowed in the near future. They list the Pan AM Qualifier as an essential event.

Obviously, the other countries can do what they want, including Canada

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I was just looking at the 57kg results at worlds: Asia is going to be an insane qualifier and leave 3 to 5 very tough guys still wanting spots.

Asian qualifier will have Japan (obvious credentials), Mongolia (Bekhbayar lost 4-4 to Atri of Iran), North Korea (lost 4-2 to Atri), Tajikistan (Ikramov lost 8-6 to Bakhbayov), Kyrgyzstan (Zhold lost 5-4 to Amiraslanov of Aze). I mean, if Japan and Mongolia are in the same half, an Olympic gold medal candidate will be at the World qualifier and we could draw into him in our half.

Europe has at least four good ones too in Azerbaijan (Amiraslanov of Aze lost 4-3 to Uguev and 4-4 to Bekhbayar), Ukraine, Georgia, Belarus (Andreu lost 4-2 to Atri also). 

Anyway...getting Ortega before the finals at 57kg this weekend has made qualifying this weight far from a done deal.

Thanks for doing the work. I know 65kg has the potential to be "tough" as well. But with the draw I dont see Zain not making the finals this weekend, and I think once the continental qualifiers are done I dont think there will be many big names left (a couple but not several) 65kg seems to be a lock, as does 125kg.

I'm not 100% secure on 86kg but if he doesnt get it here (just a tough loss to Torre) I would have 100% confidence he could get it done at last chance...

 

57 though. You said it.... Ortega early has me holding my breath

 

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1 minute ago, Dr. Doom said:

USA Wrestling subcommittee for COVID-19 met on March 12th to discuss. The conclusion of the meeting is on the link below:

https://www.teamusa.org/USA-Wrestling/Features/2020/March/12/USA-Wrestling-statement-on-COVID-19-and-activities-going-forward

In a nutchell, only "essential" events are going be allowed in the near future. They list the Pan AM Qualifier as an essential event.

Obviously, the other countries can do what they want, including Canada

Yeah, i saw that too, but so many more dominoes fell after that was published. We'll see what happens. The good thing we have going is that the athletes have mostly been there for more than a week already anyway, so it's not quite the same situation as the other sites' needing teams to newly travel.

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Looking now at Greco draws:

60kg: Hafizov has a tough one. The Ecuadorian first round has placed well at worlds and Pan Ams a number of times. He'd then get the Kazakh-Brazilian Garipov second round and the tough Pimentel of the DR in the semi's. That's a tough 1-2-3 to navigate.

67kg: Sancho has a shot for sure. Bye into a very winnable quarter and then a semi-final with potentially a guy he beat 11-8 last week.

77kg: Smith has a significant road block in Pena Flores of Cuba, who he split 3-1 decisions with last week, awaiting in the semi's. Pena Flores probably has the more difficult quarterfinal and Smith will have the more recent revenge factor because Pena Flores beat him for the gold last week.

87kg: Joe Rau also has a shot to qualify us. His toughest match would probably be his quarterfinal where he'd face the winner of two guys that both own strong past Pan Am results but that he beat last week.

97kg: Hancock is a fourth guy with a good shot. His toughest pool opponent is a Venezuelan he beat 3-0 last week. If he wins that, he should face a weaker opponent in the cross-bracket semi-finals. But if he falls to the Venezuelan, he's in danger because he'd face the Cuban Rosillo Kindelan, who he split with last week.

130kg: Coon draws directly into the quarters with the super tough Cuban Chilean, Acosta Fernandez, who he probably won't beat. The ranking system for UWW is so non-intuitive. I'm not sure it works much better than random draws. Coon just crushed the Venezuelan last week in an event that counted toward rankings, but the Venezuelan gets the 1 and Coon gets the 2. If it were reversed, Coon would have a much easier path. And really, Acosta Fernandez is the obvious #1 but gets no seed. Kinda wacky.

 

 

 

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