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New numbers(c19)

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World:  March 5 98,425 cases/3387 dead;   March 12 134,576 cases/4981 dead;  Current: 239,773/9953 dead

US:  March 5   221 cases/12 dead;  March 12   1697/41 dead;   Current: 11,355/171 dead  (number of deaths tripled March5-12, then quadrupled March 12-19, and we're not done with today yet)

Edited by Lurker

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9 minutes ago, shieldofpistis said:

Lurker I just asked you a question in PM but you can answer it here.  Are we still on the path of Italy?

They had 11 deaths on Feb 25, hit 170 on March 6.  That's 10 days.  We went from 12 to 170 in 14.....   pretty close.

 

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U.S. flu season (Oct 1, 2019 thru March 7, 2020): 36 to 51 Million flu illnesses, 17 to 24 Million flu medical visits, 370,000 to 670,000 flu hospitalizations, 22,000 to 55,000 flu deaths (Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.)

The impact, in terms of illnesses and deaths, of the flu is much greater than CV19. More people have died from flu in the U.S. this season than have died worldwide from CV19. Why don't we take these extreme measures every year to contain the flu?

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6 minutes ago, vegetable lasagna said:

U.S. flu season (Oct 1, 2019 thru March 7, 2020): 36 to 51 Million flu illnesses, 17 to 24 Million flu medical visits, 370,000 to 670,000 flu hospitalizations, 22,000 to 55,000 flu deaths (Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.)

The impact, in terms of illnesses and deaths, of the flu is much greater than CV19. More people have died from flu in the U.S. this season than have died worldwide from CV19. Why don't we take these extreme measures every year to contain the flu?

***sigh***

We don't take these extreme measures every year because there is herd immunity to the flu. How many die is not the main concern although it is part of it. The concern is that millions all get this at the same time and the medical system breaks down. That is why we don't take these measures with the flu.

With the Spanish flu, the death rate spiked from roughly 4% to 20% when hospitals could no longer keep up. 

Edited by russelscout

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6 minutes ago, vegetable lasagna said:

U.S. flu season (Oct 1, 2019 thru March 7, 2020): 36 to 51 Million flu illnesses, 17 to 24 Million flu medical visits, 370,000 to 670,000 flu hospitalizations, 22,000 to 55,000 flu deaths (Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.)

The impact, in terms of illnesses and deaths, of the flu is much greater than CV19. More people have died from flu in the U.S. this season than have died worldwide from CV19. Why don't we take these extreme measures every year to contain the flu?

You would have to ask the people in charge at CDC, WHO, federal government, etc. All people smarter than me.  I'm just sharing information, raw facts without opinions.

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14 minutes ago, russelscout said:

***sigh***

We don't take these extreme measures every year because there is herd immunity to the flu. How many die is not the main concern although it is part of it. The concern is that millions all get this at the same time and the medical system breaks down. That is why we don't take these measures with the flu.

With the Spanish flu, the death rate spiked from roughly 4% to 20% when hospitals could no longer keep up. 

We didn't take these drastic measures with other novel virus threats (SARS, bird flu, ebola virus, zika virus, etc.) for which we lacked "herd immunity." 

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3 minutes ago, vegetable lasagna said:

We didn't take these drastic measures with other novel virus threats (SARS, bird flu, ebola virus, zika virus, etc.) for which we lacked "herd immunity." 

Several of those never got beyond the containment phase. We never got to the point of needing to quarantine. Had Ebola gotten to the point we are now, you could bet your ass that we would not be leaving the home.

Edited by russelscout

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3 minutes ago, russelscout said:

Several of those never got beyond the containment phase. We never got to the point of needing to quarantine. Had Ebola gotten to the point we are now, you could bet your ass that we would not be leaving the home.

That's sort of begging the question. 

Regarding Spanish flu, the wikipedia article says that "a 2007 analysis of medical journals from the period of the pandemic[12][13] found that the viral infection was no more aggressive than previous influenza strains. Instead, malnourishment, overcrowded medical camps and hospitals, and poor hygiene promoted bacterial superinfection. This superinfection killed most of the victims, typically after a somewhat prolonged death bed."

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there are many resources easily google-able that can tell you why this virus posses a much bigger threat then the seasonal flu. here is a good summation

the coronavirus spreads quicker, has a much longer incubation period, and causes higher hospitalization and death rates. the infections grow exponentially, so extreme measures are not taken, it could easily end up killing 1 million people in the US. 

just look at what's happening in Italy right now. read any of the thousands of stories available. hundreds are dying a day. the army has been called in to haul away bodies in certain cities because the morgues are full. it's what will be happening in the USA and worse if we treat it like the seasonal flu.

I mean there's trolling and then there's being so dense that you become a danger to society. it's really not funny. 

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On 3/19/2020 at 3:01 PM, vegetable lasagna said:

That's sort of begging the question. 

Regarding Spanish flu, the wikipedia article says that "a 2007 analysis of medical journals from the period of the pandemic[12][13] found that the viral infection was no more aggressive than previous influenza strains. Instead, malnourishment, overcrowded medical camps and hospitals, and poor hygiene promoted bacterial superinfection. This superinfection killed most of the victims, typically after a somewhat prolonged death bed."

Its not begging the question. Its letting you know the difference between your examples and in this case is we are now beyond containment. 

....and I think you just made my point about the Spanish Flu.
 

Edited by russelscout

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3 minutes ago, vegetable lasagna said:

That's sort of begging the question. 

Regarding Spanish flu, the wikipedia article says that "a 2007 analysis of medical journals from the period of the pandemic[12][13] found that the viral infection was no more aggressive than previous influenza strains. Instead, malnourishment, overcrowded medical camps and hospitals, and poor hygiene promoted bacterial superinfection. This superinfection killed most of the victims, typically after a somewhat prolonged death bed."

But that's exactly why we're doing what we're doing now. To PREVENT "malnourishment, overcrowded medical camps and hospitals, and poor hygiene"

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32 minutes ago, russelscout said:

Its not begging the question. Its letting you know the difference between your examples and this case is that we are now beyond containment. 

....and I think you just made my point about the Spanish Flu. Thanks!
 

Not really. Lots of people died from the spanish flu, not because the virus was especially bad, but because of poor treatment of patients. A reflection of the times, and not really comparable  to the present.

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36 minutes ago, Jaroslav Hasek said:

there are many resources easily google-able that can tell you why this virus posses a much bigger threat then the seasonal flu. here is a good summation

the coronavirus spreads quicker, has a much longer incubation period, and causes higher hospitalization and death rates. the infections grow exponentially, so extreme measures are not taken, it could easily end up killing 1 million people in the US. 

just look at what's happening in Italy right now. read any of the thousands of stories available. hundreds are dying a day. the army has been called in to haul away bodies in certain cities because the morgues are full. it's what will be happening in the USA and worse if we treat it like the seasonal flu.

I mean there's trolling and then there's being so dense that you become a danger to society. it's really not funny. 

Yes, and plenty of resources that told us why SARS, ebola, zika, etc, etc presented a bigger threat than flu. Why didn't we take exteme measures for those? How is it we survived them without the exteme measures?

 

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11 minutes ago, vegetable lasagna said:

Not really. Lots of people died from the spanish flu, not because the virus was especially bad, but because of poor treatment of patients. A reflection of the times, and not really comparable  to the present.

I am not quite sure how you are missing this...... Its not hard to understand.

Poor treatment of patients was because of the inability of the medical system to keep up. When it was working the mortality rates were low. You could say it was a reflection of the times if it was high all the time, but it only spiked when the medical system couldn't keep up.

 Its why china built two hospitals. Its not about the technology in new medicine. It is about the ability to keep up with the volume of patients. 

Its times like these I think its worth investigating the source. Not only do most posters disagree with you, but the CDC, medical professionals, and the government do too. Can you please list your credentials so we know why we should put any credence behind your opinion. Thats the least you can do with so much at stake.

Edited by russelscout

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1 minute ago, russelscout said:

I am not quite sure how you are missing this...... 

Poor treatment of patients was because of the inability of the medical system to keep up. When it was working the mortality rates were low. Its why china built two hospitals. Its not about the technology in new medicine. It is about the ability to keep up with the volume of patients. 

Its times like these I think its worth investigating the source. Not only do most posters disagree with you, but the CDC, medical professionals, and the government do. Can you please list your credentials so we know why we should put any credence behind your opinion. Thats the least you can do with so much at stake.

Scout, let him keep going. He's arguing your point eloquently.

 

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Just reported earlier today.

More people have now died in Italy than China due to the Covid-19.

Italy, with a population of 60 million, recorded at least 3,405 deaths, or roughly 150 more than in China — a country with a population over 20 times larger

 

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1 hour ago, vegetable lasagna said:

Yes, and plenty of resources that told us why SARS, ebola, zika, etc, etc presented a bigger threat than flu. Why didn't we take exteme measures for those? How is it we survived them without the exteme measures?

 

many countries did take incredible drastic steps to combat those diseases. we survived because fo those drastic measures taken by other countries. also every new virus or health threat presents different challenges and optimal responses. to keep trying to "what about" SARS-CoV-2 is to be obtuse to the point of suicidal.

surviving without "extreme measures"  would mean that at BEST we get Italy, where hundreds are dying a day, the rate of which is still increasing, as well as an overwhelmed medical care capacity lading to more unnecessary deaths. 

I know changes to your routine can be difficult, but at this point I can't help but think you're either an incredibly selfish or incredible dense person or both. best of luck with your life.

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1 hour ago, Marcus Cisero said:

Anyone encouraged by the imminent approval of an existing antimalaria drug called Chloroquine? Some interesting studies going on.

I think it's more about treatment of symptoms. Weird because malaria is a parasitic infection as opposed to a virus. I saw some doctor saying to be careful, although it's safe in the right circumstances and dosages that's a very fine line and still needs study to be sure.

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1 hour ago, Marcus Cisero said:

Just reported earlier today.

More people have now died in Italy than China due to the Covid-19.

Italy, with a population of 60 million, recorded at least 3,405 deaths, or roughly 150 more than in China — a country with a population over 20 times larger

 

I wouldnt count on those numbers from China. They very much care about the optics of this all. 

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23 minutes ago, russelscout said:

I wouldnt count on those numbers from China. They very much care about the optics of this all. 

My point exactly.  North Korea has zero cases right now and Iran is showing they "plateaued".

 

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