New numbers(c19)

[treep2000 903]

If this Chloroquine comes through, that would be a game changer, and this time, for the positive.

[pamela 1,334]

Yah, or the mRNA therapeutic from Moderna, even though it’ll take time (rightfully so) to clear trials even on fast track. The big concern isn’t just the exponential shape of the curve; there’s predictive modeling that forecasts a pattern of flattening and recovery in the late summer or early fall, then bam, a second wave of c19 that hits the population even harder - kind of like the 1918 epidemic. It’s a race to get a working vaccination not just working, but in production and distributed at scale. 

Bringing this back topically, hopefully c19 will be fully under control by next season. Even if it is, though, I think there will be lingering public fear over congregating en masse. We all feel like unquarantining and going out now but I think it will take some time to build back to pre-pandemic levels. I imagine the NCAA and conferences will likely have new safety procedures that might change the way wrestling duals & tournaments are conducted and how attendees watch.

[spladle 179]

We are in deep doo doo, no two ways about it.  Be dismissive at your damn risk but don't infect me in the process.

[Bronco 145]

If I wanted to read about this virus (again) I'd go to ANOTHER website.   I come to THIS website to read about WRESTLING.

[stp 544]

On 3/19/2020 at 4:46 PM, russelscout said:

I am not quite sure how you are missing this...... Its not hard to understand.
 

lol

Edited March 22, 2020 by stp

[ionel 1,324]

5 hours ago, Bronco said:

If I wanted to read about this virus (again) I'd go to ANOTHER website.   I come to THIS website to read about WRESTLING.

Perhaps then learn to read, start with the thread title.  ;_;

[Lurker 1,397]

In the name of Exponentially: 

From January 21 to February 10 (20 days) the virus claimed its first 1000 victims. In the next 20 days, the number of deaths tripled, bringing us to just over 3000 dead. We are now 21 days out from that point, and we have 14,500 dead. 

Just sharing information. 

[shieldofpistis 112]

5 hours ago, Lurker said:

In the name of Exponentially: 

From January 21 to February 10 (20 days) the virus claimed its first 1000 victims. In the next 20 days, the number of deaths tripled, bringing us to just over 3000 dead. We are now 21 days out from that point, and we have 14,500 dead. 

Just sharing information. 

Do you see the virus becoming less aggressive? I live in a town if 21, 000 and there has yet to have confirmed case.  Any reason to not have church or restaurants open?  I'm asking you because you seem to understand virus because of your research.

[Lurker 1,397]

21 minutes ago, shieldofpistis said:

Do you see the virus becoming less aggressive? I live in a town if 21, 000 and there has yet to have confirmed case.  Any reason to not have church or restaurants open?  I'm asking you because you seem to understand virus because of your research.

I wouldn’t say I understand the virus, I’m just following the numbers. I’m not in a position to answer your questions, but I would reccomend considering:    the numbers are rising exponentially;  people have the ability to walk around infectious for several, several days without feeling anything;  the reccomendations from those who do understand the virus, and it’s potential. 
 

 

[shieldofpistis 112]

42 minutes ago, Lurker said:

I wouldn’t say I understand the virus, I’m just following the numbers. I’m not in a position to answer your questions, but I would reccomend considering:    the numbers are rising exponentially;  people have the ability to walk around infectious for several, several days without feeling anything;  the reccomendations from those who do understand the virus, and it’s potential. 
 

 

My state has less than 50 cases but none on my county 

[Lurker 1,397]

8 minutes ago, shieldofpistis said:

My state has less than 50 cases but none on my county 

In my opinion, when dealing with something that spreads exponentially like this....those decisions shouldn’t be based on what are the numbers right now. With no action, those numbers will be very very different in a week. 

[ionel 1,324]

Take a look at Eagle county Colorado and the adjoining sparsely populated counties.  Look at cases compared to county population then be sure to watch the updates the next 3 to 7 days. 

[Marcus Cisero 340]

 

Just updated..

 

USA State	Total Cases	New Cases	Total Deaths	New Deaths	Total Recovered	Active Cases	Source
New York	15,168	+4,796	114	+58		15,054	[source] [source]
Washington	1,996	+203	95	+1	124	1,777	[source]
New Jersey	1,914	+587	20	+4		1,894	[source]
California	1,555	+164	29	+5	6	1,520	[source] [source] [source]
Illinois	1,049	+296	9	+3	2	1,038	[source]
Michigan	1,035	+248	9	+4		1,026	[source] [source] [source]
Florida	1,007	+348	13	+1		994	[source]
Louisiana	837	+252	20	+4		817	[source]
Massachusetts	646	+121	5	+4	1	640	[source]
Georgia	600	+45	23	+9		577	[source]
Texas	598	+125	6	+1	11	581	[source] [source]
Colorado	591	+115	6	+1		585	[source] [source]
Tennessee	505	+134	2	+1		503	[source] [source]
Pennsylvania	479	+88	3	+1		476	[source] [source]
Wisconsin	381	+100	4		1	376	[source]
Ohio	351	+104	3			348	[source]
North Carolina	255	+9				255	[source]
Maryland	244	+54	3	+1	4	237	[source]
Connecticut	223	+29	5	+1		218	[source]
Virginia	219	+67	3	+1	1	215	[source]
Mississippi	207	+66	1			206	[source]
Indiana	201	+72	6	+3		195	[source]
South Carolina	195	+22	3			192	[source]
Nevada	190	+29	2			188	[source]
Utah	181	+45	1	+1		180	[source]
Minnesota	169	+31	1		24	144	[source]
Arkansas	165	+47	6	+6		159	[source]
Oregon	161	+24	4			157	[source]
Alabama	157	+32				157	[source]
Arizona	152	+44	2	+1	1	149	[source]
Kentucky	99	+35	3	+1	2	94	[source]
District of Columbia	98	+21	2	+-1		96	[source] [source]
Missouri	90	+16	3			87	[source]
Iowa	90	+22				90	[source]
Maine	89	+19				89	[source]
Rhode Island	83	+29				83	[source]
New Hampshire	78	+13				78	[source]
Oklahoma	67	+14	2	+1	1	64	[source]
New Mexico	65	+8				65	[source]
Kansas	64	+7	2	+1		62	[source] [source]
Delaware	56	+16				56	[source]
Hawaii	56	+8				56	[source]
Vermont	52	+3	2			50	[source]
Idaho	42	+6				42	[source]
Nebraska	42	+4				42	[source]
Montana	34	+7				34	[source]
North Dakota	30	+2				30	[source]
Wyoming	24	+1				24	[source]
Alaska	22	+8				22	[source]
South Dakota	21	+7	1			20	[source]
West Virginia	12	+1				12	[source]
Diamond Princess Cruise	49					49
Grand Princess Cruise	30	+7	1			29
Others	59	+14	2	+1		57
Total:	32,783	8,565	416	114	178	32,189

[ionel 1,324]

NY is ~half the national numbers in cases and fatalities and as of still this weekend folks in NYC running around like nothing has changed in the world.  Look for FL to make a big jump from similar behavior.

[pamela 1,334]

1 hour ago, shieldofpistis said:

Do you see the virus becoming less aggressive? I live in a town if 21, 000 and there has yet to have confirmed case.  Any reason to not have church or restaurants open?  I'm asking you because you seem to understand virus because of your research.

Just to reframe your last question: How many ICU beds does your local hospital have? Many county hospitals have 2 or fewer. If say 5% of your town (~1000 people) get sick in a 2-4 week period, will they be able to get medical care?

Regarding your first Q, Fauci said today that the virus is “definitely mutating”, which is normal behavior for a virus that is replicating at scale, but that also could make the development and testing of treatments that much tougher - including vaccines that are currently in trials.

[jysupert 13]

15 hours ago, Bronco said:

If I wanted to read about this virus (again) I'd go to ANOTHER website.   I come to THIS website to read about WRESTLING.

"Fat, Drunk and stupid is no way to go through life, son" - Dean Wormer

[ionel 1,324]

31 minutes ago, pamela said:

Just to reframe your last question: How many ICU beds does your local hospital have? Many county hospitals have 2 or fewer. If say 5% of your town (~1000 people) get sick in a 2-4 week period, will they be able to get medical care?

Regarding your first Q, Fauci said today that the virus is “definitely mutating”, which is normal behavior for a virus that is replicating at scale, but that also could make the development and testing of treatments that much tougher - including vaccines that are currently in trials.

To further that point, its been reported state my parents live in that 75 out of the ~100 counties have no, that's zero, ICU beds.

[pamela 1,334]

1 minute ago, jysupert said:

"Fat, Drunk and stupid is no way to go through life, son" - Dean Wormer

He’s been placed on double secret probation

[ugarte 325]

On 3/19/2020 at 7:10 PM, wrestlingnerd said:

Very encouraging. 
 

https://mrtopstep.com/elon-musk-says-maybe-an-effective-treatment-for-coronavirus-covid-19/

if elon musk said it there's literally no reason to trust it. the point of that article is "elon musk wanted to see his name in the newspaper again."  chorloquine (and hydrochloriquine) paired with an antibacterial are not novel suggestions and worth investigating but also have known serious side effects and dangers. naturally, people WITH CERTAIN PERSONALITIES AND A HIGH PROFILE have decided to tweet that Americans should be turned into a massive experimental study .

on the other hand, virologists at Pitt appear to have been doing interesting stuff.

[ugarte 325]

1 hour ago, ionel said:

NY is ~half the national numbers in cases and fatalities and as of still this weekend folks in NYC running around like nothing has changed in the world.  Look for FL to make a big jump from similar behavior.

i promise you that nothing in NYC is normal right now. in a population of over 7 million, some people will do the wrong thing. going to the park and walking around to stay sane is not bad. going to the park to play pickup soccer is not fine and i think chicago may have expressly prohibited group activities in public parks. nyc will probably do so soon, though for now it has just been a stern lecture about it from cuomo.

[ionel 1,324]

2 minutes ago, ugarte said:

i promise you that nothing in NYC is normal right now. in a population of over 7 million, some people will do the wrong thing. going to the park and walking around to stay sane is not bad. going to the park to play pickup soccer is not fine and i think chicago may have expressly prohibited group activities in public parks. nyc will probably do so soon, though for now it has just been a stern lecture about it from cuomo.

NYC appears to have the worse problem in the country and will be requiring resources from other areas that may need them.  But sure why would the mayor want to do anything "soon," maybe if he waits the problem will just go away?  The governor does appear to be taking this seriously. 

[pamela 1,334]

This online tool pairs well with @Lurker’s numbers updates. It lets you click on a state then predictively models the point of no return moment for different actions (e.g., social distancing, shelter in place, doing nothing) before the c19 case curve moves past the point of hospital overload. For some places, that moment has already passed:

https://covidactnow.org/

 

(also FYI for @shieldofpistis)

[ugarte 325]

1 hour ago, ionel said:

NYC appears to have the worse problem in the country and will be requiring resources from other areas that may need them.  But sure why would the mayor want to do anything "soon," maybe if he waits the problem will just go away?  The governor does appear to be taking this seriously. 

i'm not praising BdB here i'm just saying it's tough to put a city of 7 million under lockdown when half of a wrestling forum thinks this is a seasonal flu plotted by soros

[Lurker 1,397]

7 hours ago, pamela said:

This online tool pairs well with @Lurker’s numbers updates. It lets you click on a state then predictively models the point of no return moment for different actions (e.g., social distancing, shelter in place, doing nothing) before the c19 case curve moves past the point of hospital overload. For some places, that moment has already passed:

https://covidactnow.org/

 

(also FYI for @shieldofpistis)

Thanks Pamela.  I’m in Florida (Southwest) and according to that model we are currently a couple days from “point of no return”, and that we will need three months of shelter in place to remain below hospital capacity. Based on what was going on at the beaches last week, I’m not at all surprised.  I was anticipating a real problem start to show itself...well any time now. We shall see. 

Edited March 23, 2020 by Lurker

[red blades 246]

Some of you may recognize this - my daughter home from college sees me somewhat obsessively checking up on the latest COVID 19 stats, comparing charts and graphs, and asks, "Is this what guys do now that there are no sports or sports stats to analyze?"

I have to admit in my own case - it does seem she has a point.