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New numbers(c19)

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Yah, or the mRNA therapeutic from Moderna, even though it’ll take time (rightfully so) to clear trials even on fast track. The big concern isn’t just the exponential shape of the curve; there’s predictive modeling that forecasts a pattern of flattening and recovery in the late summer or early fall, then bam, a second wave of c19 that hits the population even harder - kind of like the 1918 epidemic. It’s a race to get a working vaccination not just working, but in production and distributed at scale. 

Bringing this back topically, hopefully c19 will be fully under control by next season. Even if it is, though, I think there will be lingering public fear over congregating en masse. We all feel like unquarantining and going out now but I think it will take some time to build back to pre-pandemic levels. I imagine the NCAA and conferences will likely have new safety procedures that might change the way wrestling duals & tournaments are conducted and how attendees watch.

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On 3/19/2020 at 4:46 PM, russelscout said:

I am not quite sure how you are missing this...... Its not hard to understand.
 

lol

Edited by stp

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In the name of Exponentially: 

From January 21 to February 10 (20 days) the virus claimed its first 1000 victims. In the next 20 days, the number of deaths tripled, bringing us to just over 3000 dead. We are now 21 days out from that point, and we have 14,500 dead. 

Just sharing information. 

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5 hours ago, Lurker said:

In the name of Exponentially: 

From January 21 to February 10 (20 days) the virus claimed its first 1000 victims. In the next 20 days, the number of deaths tripled, bringing us to just over 3000 dead. We are now 21 days out from that point, and we have 14,500 dead. 

Just sharing information. 

Do you see the virus becoming less aggressive? I live in a town if 21, 000 and there has yet to have confirmed case.  Any reason to not have church or restaurants open?  I'm asking you because you seem to understand virus because of your research.

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21 minutes ago, shieldofpistis said:

Do you see the virus becoming less aggressive? I live in a town if 21, 000 and there has yet to have confirmed case.  Any reason to not have church or restaurants open?  I'm asking you because you seem to understand virus because of your research.

I wouldn’t say I understand the virus, I’m just following the numbers. I’m not in a position to answer your questions, but I would reccomend considering:    the numbers are rising exponentially;  people have the ability to walk around infectious for several, several days without feeling anything;  the reccomendations from those who do understand the virus, and it’s potential. 
 

 

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42 minutes ago, Lurker said:

I wouldn’t say I understand the virus, I’m just following the numbers. I’m not in a position to answer your questions, but I would reccomend considering:    the numbers are rising exponentially;  people have the ability to walk around infectious for several, several days without feeling anything;  the reccomendations from those who do understand the virus, and it’s potential. 
 

 

My state has less than 50 cases but none on my county 

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8 minutes ago, shieldofpistis said:

My state has less than 50 cases but none on my county 

In my opinion, when dealing with something that spreads exponentially like this....those decisions shouldn’t be based on what are the numbers right now. With no action, those numbers will be very very different in a week. 

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Just updated..
 
USA
State
Total
Cases
New
Cases
Total
Deaths
New
Deaths
Total
Recovered
Active
Cases
Source
New York 15,168 +4,796 114 +58   15,054 [source] [source
Washington 1,996 +203 95 +1 124 1,777 [source
New Jersey 1,914 +587 20 +4   1,894 [source
California 1,555 +164 29 +5 6 1,520 [source] [source] [source
Illinois 1,049 +296 9 +3 2 1,038 [source
Michigan 1,035 +248 9 +4   1,026 [source] [source] [source
Florida 1,007 +348 13 +1   994 [source
Louisiana 837 +252 20 +4   817 [source
Massachusetts 646 +121 5 +4 1 640 [source
Georgia 600 +45 23 +9   577 [source
Texas 598 +125 6 +1 11 581 [source] [source
Colorado 591 +115 6 +1   585 [source] [source
Tennessee 505 +134 2 +1   503 [source] [source
Pennsylvania 479 +88 3 +1   476 [source] [source
Wisconsin 381 +100 4   1 376 [source
Ohio 351 +104 3     348 [source
North Carolina 255 +9       255 [source
Maryland 244 +54 3 +1 4 237 [source
Connecticut 223 +29 5 +1   218 [source
Virginia 219 +67 3 +1 1 215 [source
Mississippi 207 +66 1     206 [source
Indiana 201 +72 6 +3   195 [source
South Carolina 195 +22 3     192 [source
Nevada 190 +29 2     188 [source
Utah 181 +45 1 +1   180 [source
Minnesota 169 +31 1   24 144 [source
Arkansas 165 +47 6 +6   159 [source
Oregon 161 +24 4     157 [source
Alabama 157 +32       157 [source
Arizona 152 +44 2 +1 1 149 [source
Kentucky 99 +35 3 +1 2 94 [source
District of Columbia 98 +21 2 +-1   96 [source] [source
Missouri 90 +16 3     87 [source
Iowa 90 +22       90 [source
Maine 89 +19       89 [source
Rhode Island 83 +29       83 [source
New Hampshire 78 +13       78 [source
Oklahoma 67 +14 2 +1 1 64 [source
New Mexico 65 +8       65 [source
Kansas 64 +7 2 +1   62 [source] [source
Delaware 56 +16       56 [source
Hawaii 56 +8       56 [source
Vermont 52 +3 2     50 [source
Idaho 42 +6       42 [source
Nebraska 42 +4       42 [source
Montana 34 +7       34 [source
North Dakota 30 +2       30 [source
Wyoming 24 +1       24 [source
Alaska 22 +8       22 [source
South Dakota 21 +7 1     20 [source
West Virginia 12 +1       12 [source
Diamond Princess Cruise 49         49  
Grand Princess Cruise 30 +7 1     29  
Others 59 +14 2 +1   57  
Total: 32,783 8,565 416 114 178 32,189  

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NY is ~half the national numbers in cases and fatalities and as of still this weekend folks in NYC running around like nothing has changed in the world.  Look for FL to make a big jump from similar behavior.

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1 hour ago, shieldofpistis said:

Do you see the virus becoming less aggressive? I live in a town if 21, 000 and there has yet to have confirmed case.  Any reason to not have church or restaurants open?  I'm asking you because you seem to understand virus because of your research.

Just to reframe your last question: How many ICU beds does your local hospital have? Many county hospitals have 2 or fewer. If say 5% of your town (~1000 people) get sick in a 2-4 week period, will they be able to get medical care?

Regarding your first Q, Fauci said today that the virus is “definitely mutating”, which is normal behavior for a virus that is replicating at scale, but that also could make the development and testing of treatments that much tougher - including vaccines that are currently in trials.

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15 hours ago, Bronco said:

If I wanted to read about this virus (again) I'd go to ANOTHER website.   I come to THIS website to read about WRESTLING.

"Fat, Drunk and stupid is no way to go through life, son" - Dean Wormer

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31 minutes ago, pamela said:

Just to reframe your last question: How many ICU beds does your local hospital have? Many county hospitals have 2 or fewer. If say 5% of your town (~1000 people) get sick in a 2-4 week period, will they be able to get medical care?

Regarding your first Q, Fauci said today that the virus is “definitely mutating”, which is normal behavior for a virus that is replicating at scale, but that also could make the development and testing of treatments that much tougher - including vaccines that are currently in trials.

To further that point, its been reported state my parents live in that 75 out of the ~100 counties have no, that's zero, ICU beds.

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On 3/19/2020 at 7:10 PM, wrestlingnerd said:

if elon musk said it there's literally no reason to trust it. the point of that article is "elon musk wanted to see his name in the newspaper again."  chorloquine (and hydrochloriquine) paired with an antibacterial are not novel suggestions and worth investigating but also have known serious side effects and dangers. naturally, people WITH CERTAIN PERSONALITIES AND A HIGH PROFILE have decided to tweet that Americans should be turned into a massive experimental study .

on the other hand, virologists at Pitt appear to have been doing interesting stuff.

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1 hour ago, ionel said:

NY is ~half the national numbers in cases and fatalities and as of still this weekend folks in NYC running around like nothing has changed in the world.  Look for FL to make a big jump from similar behavior.

i promise you that nothing in NYC is normal right now. in a population of over 7 million, some people will do the wrong thing. going to the park and walking around to stay sane is not bad. going to the park to play pickup soccer is not fine and i think chicago may have expressly prohibited group activities in public parks. nyc will probably do so soon, though for now it has just been a stern lecture about it from cuomo.

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2 minutes ago, ugarte said:

i promise you that nothing in NYC is normal right now. in a population of over 7 million, some people will do the wrong thing. going to the park and walking around to stay sane is not bad. going to the park to play pickup soccer is not fine and i think chicago may have expressly prohibited group activities in public parks. nyc will probably do so soon, though for now it has just been a stern lecture about it from cuomo.

NYC appears to have the worse problem in the country and will be requiring resources from other areas that may need them.  But sure why would the mayor want to do anything "soon," maybe if he waits the problem will just go away?  The governor does appear to be taking this seriously. 

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This online tool pairs well with @Lurker’s numbers updates. It lets you click on a state then predictively models the point of no return moment for different actions (e.g., social distancing, shelter in place, doing nothing) before the c19 case curve moves past the point of hospital overload. For some places, that moment has already passed:

https://covidactnow.org/

 

(also FYI for @shieldofpistis)

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1 hour ago, ionel said:

NYC appears to have the worse problem in the country and will be requiring resources from other areas that may need them.  But sure why would the mayor want to do anything "soon," maybe if he waits the problem will just go away?  The governor does appear to be taking this seriously. 

i'm not praising BdB here i'm just saying it's tough to put a city of 7 million under lockdown when half of a wrestling forum thinks this is a seasonal flu plotted by soros

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7 hours ago, pamela said:

This online tool pairs well with @Lurker’s numbers updates. It lets you click on a state then predictively models the point of no return moment for different actions (e.g., social distancing, shelter in place, doing nothing) before the c19 case curve moves past the point of hospital overload. For some places, that moment has already passed:

https://covidactnow.org/

 

(also FYI for @shieldofpistis)

Thanks Pamela.  I’m in Florida (Southwest) and according to that model we are currently a couple days from “point of no return”, and that we will need three months of shelter in place to remain below hospital capacity. Based on what was going on at the beaches last week, I’m not at all surprised.  I was anticipating a real problem start to show itself...well any time now. We shall see. 

Edited by Lurker

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Some of you may recognize this - my daughter home from college sees me somewhat obsessively checking up on the latest COVID 19 stats, comparing charts and graphs, and asks, "Is this what guys do now that there are no sports or sports stats to analyze?"

I have to admit in my own case - it does seem she has a point.

 

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