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The weather argument is unfortunately growing weaker as the virus continues to spread in Australia, for example, where it is summer.  It could lose some steam, according to some experts, but we can't hold out that warmer weather will "halt the virus."  (NY Times)

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2 minutes ago, Hey Now said:

The weather argument is unfortunately growing weaker as the virus continues to spread in Australia, for example, where it is summer.  It could lose some steam, according to some experts, but we can't hold out that warmer weather will "halt the virus."  (NY Times)

I don't think it will halt the virus. but it should help some. Three of the seven (current virus that causes COVID19, "Sars 2" is the seventh) coronaviruses have been studied and have been shown to be highly seasonal. The oily layer that surrounds the virus is heat-sensitive. To what degree is unknown.

Australia having a lot of cases is not too surprising. Roughly 20% of all inbound travel to Australia is from China. China dominates the foreign boarding student population in Australia, so much so that Australia has been allowing Chinese students circumvent their travel ban even now. 

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People need to realize that this one that is here to stay rather than some fad we will rid ourselves of in a month if we play it right.  There will be no snap of the fingers and everything is soon cured forever.   Sure it may subside in summer, but even if it lay dormant for awhile it will spread again next winter.  We are a few years out from a legit preventative vaccine, so best case scenario is we have a solid cures for those seriously effected by next years cycle.  For now keep hunkering down at least another month and hope those you know with serious health issues are avoiding most contact During that time.  Sure it’s a major inconsistency vinience to life and a economic hit to many, but at least your loved ones maybe be alive for the other side of it.   

Edited by MadMardigain

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6 minutes ago, MadMardigain said:

People need to realize that this one that is here to stay rather than some fad we will rid ourselves of in a month if we play it right.  There will be no snap of the fingers and everything is soon cured forever.   Sure it may subside in summer, but even if it lay dormant for awhile it will spread again next winter.  We are a few years out from a legit preventative vaccine, so best case scenario is we have a solid cures for those seriously effected by next years cycle.  For now keep hunkering down at least another month and hope those you know with serious health issues are avoiding most contact During that time.  Sure it’s an economic hit to many, but at least your loved ones maybe be alive for the other side of it.   

Agree with the idea this isn't going away suddenly, but not so sure about hunkering down for an entire month from now. If you have the means, of course, that is safest. But many don't. In some of the cities that are currently locked down, even another week is financially unbearable to many. NYC has one of the largest % of residents living paycheck to paycheck in the country. Skipping 4, 5, 6 paychecks is catastrophic. One of the major issues with closing schools until 4/20 (current situation) is that many of the kids that attend public school do so not merely to learn, but to be able to eat. There is no way the entire country can stay locked down for an entire month from here without major stimulus directly to the consumer at historically record disbursement speed. Even the $1.6T being discussed is not enough in that case.

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9 hours ago, wrestlingnerd said:

I don't have a car. I don't care for either Tesla or Musk. I already explained that, but for a lawyer, your reading comp needs some work. That reading comp deficiency applies to your own writing, by the way, since you said that nothing Musk says, including that tweet, can ever be trusted. He may have had ulterior motives for sharing the research which wasn't even his, I have no idea, nor do I really care. The point of referencing his tweet was that it linked that specific research doc before Google took it down for whatever reason. NOT Musk. The research he linked was interesting. ALL I SAID was that the drug has potential. That was a lightly informed opinion, like that of anyone else's here since I'm assuming nobody here is literally working at the labs doing the research. Can you chill now? Isn't it past midnight in NYC? For a guy accusing me of having loyalty to Musk, it is you who clearly appears to have some emotional connection to him, not me. I couldn't care less about Musk or anything he does or says, but you clearly do. At least he's trying to help produce respirators now. He can't be that bad a guy, right?

why are you so tediously literal?

I'll believe Musk is producing ventilators when he starts rolling out ventilators.

This is the result of Musk's tweet and why I find him a dangerous nuisance, regardless of the state of chloroquine/covid-1 research: 

 

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3 hours ago, ugarte said:

why are you so tediously literal?

I'll believe Musk is producing ventilators when he starts rolling out ventilators.

This is the result of Musk's tweet and why I find him a dangerous nuisance, regardless of the state of chloroquine/covid-1 research: 

What you call tediously literal is just reading what you wrote. As for literal, I made the comment on producing ventilators tongue in cheek.

I thought that was way more obvious than interpreting what you wrote as just a barb at Musk without crapping on the potential of the drug in the process. Especially since you ended it with yet another shot at the potential valule of the drug and the Stanford research by suggesting the Pitt labs were the ones doing interesting work.

I work in healthcare at the moment and specifically, run facilities that use ventilators. I think I know how unlikely it is for an electric car company to produce life-saving equipment next week....

Here's a suggestion. Post what you mean or don't and grow thicker skin. Or just don't reply if you don't want a conversation.

Edited by wrestlingnerd

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I'm in search of some optimism - how about this.....

Stocks go BOOM: Dow jumps 1600 points on rescue deal hopes. Add to that the discussions on whether or not to loosen restrictions to restart the economy. Personally, I'm 50% / 50? on this. I'm not sure how to weigh on this but my gut tells me Americans must get back to work. My gut also tells me that doing so could make things even worse. Damned if we do and damned if we don't, but knowing who we are...this segment of Stripes comes to mind..

_Training Sir stripes logan8020 entertainment GIF

Edited by Marcus Cisero

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45 minutes ago, Marcus Cisero said:

I'm in search of some optimism - how about this.....

Stocks go BOOM: Dow jumps 1600 points on rescue deal hopes. Add to that the discussions on whether or not to loosen restrictions to restart the economy. Personally, I'm 50% / 50? on this. I'm not sure how to weigh on this but my gut tells me Americans must get back to work. My gut also tells me that doing so could make things even worse. Damned if we do and damned if we don't, but knowing who we are...this segment of Stripes comes to mind..

_Training Sir stripes logan8020 entertainment GIF

This is the trolly problem in a way. 

I am a deontologist in this case. I say we prioritize life no matter what and worry about how to adapt the economic system as we go. This way we draw a moral line in the sand. 

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1 hour ago, wrestlingnerd said:

Here's a suggestion. Post what you mean or don't and grow thicker skin. Or just don't reply if you don't want a conversation.

"Ah, so you don't like an annoying doofus. Guess you're just afraid of conversation!"

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1 hour ago, Marcus Cisero said:

I'm in search of some optimism - how about this.....

Stocks go BOOM: Dow jumps 1600 points on rescue deal hopes. Add to that the discussions on whether or not to loosen restrictions to restart the economy. Personally, I'm 50% / 50? on this. I'm not sure how to weigh on this but my gut tells me Americans must get back to work. My gut also tells me that doing so could make things even worse. Damned if we do and damned if we don't, but knowing who we are...this segment of Stripes comes to mind..

_Training Sir stripes logan8020 entertainment GIF

Loosening restrictions makes no sense right now with cases continuing to increase.  I think people may be discouraged by that, but it doesn't necessarily mean social distancing isn't working, just that a lot of the current cases probably already had it and didn't know it before a lot of the restrictions were put in place.  I feel like we need at least another 2 weeks (probably much more) of restriction to see if it's actually working.

What''s crazy to me is I've seen a bunch of posts on social media of health care workers saying their facilities are running low on protecitive equipment...including in areas with like 2 confirmed cases. 

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Looking at numbers today:

World: 2 weeks ago: 118,948 total cases, 4296 dead (271 for the day);   1 week ago: 198,238 cases/7978 dead (817/day);  current:   411,488 cases/18,552 dead (2000+/day)

 U.S:                              994 cases/30 dead (4/day)                                                                6411 cases/109 dead (23/day)                             51,678 cases/667 dead (146/day)

Italy:                             10,149 cases/631 dead (168/day)                                                     31,506 cases/2503 dead (345/day)                     69,176 cases/6820 (743/day)

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As we approach the same number of cases it is interesting how much lower the death rate is compared to those infected. I know Italy is a little further into the curve than us but I certainly hope to see that percentage remain so low.

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22 minutes ago, Perry said:

As we approach the same number of cases it is interesting how much lower the death rate is compared to those infected. I know Italy is a little further into the curve than us but I certainly hope to see that percentage remain so low.

The other number I’ve been watching a lot lately is the number of critical patients daily. The hope is as the number of deaths go up, critical patients go down, right? (Because they are dying). Unfortunately that’s not the case. Number of critical patients daily has risen here in the US significantly over the past five to seven days, along with the daily death rate. 

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After we conquer this infection what’s down the line? Is this the new protocol? 
 

These things pop up every 5-7 years. Can we honestly afford $1.5 Trillion stimulus over and over? 

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1 hour ago, Rk_Kerk said:

After we conquer this infection what’s down the line? Is this the new protocol? 
 

These things pop up every 5-7 years. Can we honestly afford $1.5 Trillion stimulus over and over? 

No.  This isn't a 1 in 5 or 1 in 10 year event.  This is a hundred year storm, or worst.  And its just getting started.

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1 hour ago, Rk_Kerk said:

These things pop up every 5-7 years. Can we honestly afford $1.5 Trillion stimulus over and over? 

That would be relevant if we did a complete shut down in multiple nations across the world for Ebola, SARS, H1N1, etc. But....obviously the really smart people who study this kind of thing for past decades feel this is something different. 

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1 hour ago, Rk_Kerk said:

After we conquer this infection what’s down the line? Is this the new protocol? 
 

These things pop up every 5-7 years

You do remember the 1918 flu, think it was something just over 100 ys ago?

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8 hours ago, russelscout said:

This is the trolly problem in a way. 

I am a deontologist in this case. I say we prioritize life no matter what and worry about how to adapt the economic system as we go. This way we draw a moral line in the sand. 

Do deontologists drive?  38,000 deaths per year by vehicle and about 70x that number of injuries.  So I am sure that all good deontologists will not drive nor eat food or utilize any goods that have been driven.  Just adapt your own personal economy and that of all good deontologists as you go.  How is that for a moral sandline?  Probably washed away with the first wave of reality.

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17 minutes ago, Lipdrag said:

Do deontologists drive?  38,000 deaths per year by vehicle and about 70x that number of injuries.  So I am sure that all good deontologists will not drive nor eat food or utilize any goods that have been driven.  Just adapt your own personal economy and that of all good deontologists as you go.  How is that for a moral sandline?  Probably washed away with the first wave of reality.

Sure, but in this case (the one we find ourselves in right now) the auto analogy makes very little sense as a comparison.

If each death per vehicle were to increase the chances of death by all other vehicles by a given percentage, and where the vehicle death growth would approach near exponential in a matter of weeks...

Then it would make a good analogy. And, at that point, we'd basically all stop driving immediately.

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1 hour ago, Lurker said:

That would be relevant if we did a complete shut down in multiple nations across the world for Ebola, SARS, H1N1, etc. But....obviously the really smart people who study this kind of thing for past decades feel this is something different. 

I get what your saying. However nothing has been done like this ever in the past. As you stated. Sometimes once a precedent is set people follow from there on out.

Thats why I’m saying next time a Ebola, H1N1, SARS comes along because we all know something will.  Does this become standard operating procedure? 

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3 minutes ago, Rk_Kerk said:

I get what your saying. However nothing has been done like this ever in the past. As you stated. Sometimes once a precedent is set people follow from there on out.

Thats why I’m saying next time a Ebola, H1N1, SARS comes along because we all know something will.  Does this become standard operating procedure? 

The next time an Ebola, H1N1, SARS, comes along...no probably not. The next time something like this comes along...very possible. 

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3 minutes ago, Rk_Kerk said:

I get what your saying. However nothing has been done like this ever in the past. As you stated. Sometimes once a precedent is set people follow from there on out.

Thats why I’m saying next time a Ebola, H1N1, SARS comes along because we all know something will.  Does this become standard operating procedure? 

No, I don't believe what we are seeing now will become SOP. I expect we'll be much better prepared.

The reason is that we will (hopefully) re-create the CDC preparedness group(s) that were (and will be) responsible for pandemic crisis strategy and action. That will effectively counter the situation where "nobody saw it coming" where we find ourselves today after those groups had been defunded and essentially fired in the last couple years. Time is the most important part of this type of crisis, and its the one that bit us in the butt this time because the very group(s) that were put in place to put us 'ahead' of this type of problem were let go.

I expect that we will know better than to put a small budget savings ahead of the best preventive measures again. 

 

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