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Lurker

New numbers(c19)

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14 minutes ago, Lurker said:

The next time an Ebola, H1N1, SARS, comes along...no probably not. The next time something like this comes along...very possible. 

H1N1 did effect over 16million Americans alone. We are currently under 100k and obviously still climbing and at a very good rate. However let’s pretend this flattening of the curb successful and we get out of this with 10 million effected. 
 

It then could be argued that this should be done every time.

I certainly hope not, and truly hope this is just a very rare occurrence. Was just asking the theoretical question to gauge what people thought. It seems most think this is a one and done situation.

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15 minutes ago, GreatWhiteNorth said:

No, I don't believe what we are seeing now will become SOP. I expect we'll be much better prepared.

The reason is that we will (hopefully) re-create the CDC preparedness group(s) that were (and will be) responsible for pandemic crisis strategy and action. That will effectively counter the situation where "nobody saw it coming" where we find ourselves today after those groups had been defunded and essentially fired in the last couple years. Time is the most important part of this type of crisis, and its the one that bit us in the butt this time because the very group(s) that were put in place to put us 'ahead' of this type of problem were let go.

I expect that we will know better than to put a small budget savings ahead of the best preventive measures again. 

 

This would be the smart thing to do. Hopefully Washington learns from this. 

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23 minutes ago, Rk_Kerk said:

H1N1 did effect over 16million Americans alone. We are currently under 100k and obviously still climbing and at a very good rate. However let’s pretend this flattening of the curb successful and we get out of this with 10 million effected. 
 

It then could be argued that this should be done every time.

I certainly hope not, and truly hope this is just a very rare occurrence. Was just asking the theoretical question to gauge what people thought. It seems most think this is a one and done situation.

I would ask who makes up the “most” you are talking about?  A good number of people I’ve read (stuff I’ve searched out, not read on MSmedia or social media) believe this is the first of 2-3 waves of this virus. And I agree with you on a couple things. One you said here in terms of gauging different thoughts/perspectives. And also in the post above in talking about learning from this, whether it’s a one off of this particular virus or a first wave. 
 

I believe there’s two things we can’t afford to do with this. First,  is try to compare it directly to flu or some of the other epidemics. Simply because, they’re not the same. So don’t treat them the same. Sure there are certain aspects we can look at, but I made the analogy the other day....if I’m going to figure the fuel costs of my cross country family RV trip, I’m not going to factor in the gas mileage on my Ford Escape. Treat it for what it is and forget about what it’s not.  Second, we can’t hunker down on what we think this will be like in 2...6....12 months. We just don’t know. Plan for as many contingencies as possible.  
 

All we know is that it spreads in a way like nothing we’ve seen before...AND.... kills at a fairly high rate. 

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1 hour ago, GreatWhiteNorth said:

Sure, but in this case (the one we find ourselves in right now) the auto analogy makes very little sense as a comparison.

If each death per vehicle were to increase the chances of death by all other vehicles by a given percentage, and where the vehicle death growth would approach near exponential in a matter of weeks...

Then it would make a good analogy. And, at that point, we'd basically all stop driving immediately.

Russelscout declared that he must apply deontology in this case which requires prioritizing the safeguarding of those whose lives are at risk in the short term over the long term well-being (economic directly and therefore health indirectly) and the majority.  The exponentiality of infections/deaths was not part of his argument.  No mathematical consideration or even the consideration of predictable consequences (such as indirect deaths caused by economic ruin) was part of his argument which is, of course, a characteristic of deontology.  I was addressing that point by the car analogy:  any deontologist worth his salt who is against anything which may cause the loss of a life should apply the same philosophy to driving and to the receipt/use of driven products in his/her personal life.

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6 hours ago, Lipdrag said:

Do deontologists drive?  38,000 deaths per year by vehicle and about 70x that number of injuries.  So I am sure that all good deontologists will not drive nor eat food or utilize any goods that have been driven.  Just adapt your own personal economy and that of all good deontologists as you go.  How is that for a moral sandline?  Probably washed away with the first wave of reality.

That is an appeal to consequence which is meaningless to a deontologist. Morally, I choose to drive and eat for my own good and the good of my family. I am choosing to prioritize life by driving and eating as it is the only options I have and can control.

With Covid 19, I am not talking about my individual choice. I am talking about a choice of a country; of humanity. People should prioritize life. If the system does not prioritize life then the system should be adapted to do so. 

 

 

Edited by russelscout

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This morning, lets take a look into Spain, as they have just passed China in total dead.  There are currently  47,600 cases in the country with 3400 dead.  Yesterday we lost 225 souls here in the states, almost double our previous high for a daily number (which....was just the day before).  Spain hit the 225 daily dead mark......five days ago, and like us are increasing to climb each day.  We currently have at least 55,000 cases here in the States.  See where I'm going with this?

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6 hours ago, GreatWhiteNorth said:

Watching this clown is a useless waste of time.

Just another wacko added to the mix that pretends he "finds cure" (per title of video) for a virus that currently 'is confounding the best minds in medicine.' 

 

 

He may be a clown but he did cure a statistically significant number of people in a Covid-infested community. It's interesting. He didn't claim to invent anything. He acknowledged quite specifically that he copied the protocols from South Korea and China and found them to be highly effective. The punchline is not that he is a magician or miracle worker; it's that he recommends the treatment he found effective be administered on an outpatient basis to de-load the acute care facilities. It's not a stupid or baseless recommendation.

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With the US hitting 1000 lost souls this morning, I'm looking at numbers in Italy and Spain and backtracking every five days, back to March 1st, to compare what the trends look like:

Country             Total cases             Total deaths today           Total deaths March 20           March 15           March 10            March 5             March 1

Italy                      74,386                            7503                                       4032                                 1809                    631                     148                      41

Spain                   56,188                            4089                                        1093                                 294                       36                         3                         0 (first death March 3)

USA                     68,905                             1037                                        255                                   69                         30                       12                         1

 

There really scary thing is that each column in each country at least doubles, more often than not triples or more, from one marker to the next.  The only exception is Italy the last five days fell just shy of doubling.  

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1 hour ago, Lurker said:

With the US hitting 1000 lost souls this morning, I'm looking at numbers in Italy and Spain and backtracking every five days, back to March 1st, to compare what the trends look like:

Country             Total cases             Total deaths today           Total deaths March 20           March 15           March 10            March 5             March 1

Italy                      74,386                            7503                                       4032                                 1809                    631                     148                      41

Spain                   56,188                            4089                                        1093                                 294                       36                         3                         0 (first death March 3)

USA                     68,905                             1037                                        255                                   69                         30                       12                         1

 

There really scary thing is that each column in each country at least doubles, more often than not triples or more, from one marker to the next.  The only exception is Italy the last five days fell just shy of doubling.  

We are doing MUCH better than Europe. Looking at absolute numbers is not very helpful from a comparison perspective. Look at these charts using your data above (I'm assuming they're correct, even if the underlying data from the source is likely very flawed due to small test samples for each country).

 

 

C19deaths-032520.png

C19death-chart-032520.png

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That looks like a VERY flat curve to me.

Italy has a population of roughly 60 million citizens. Spain has 47M. USA has 329M. 

% of cases out of the total population (from your numbers) is 1.6% for Italy (fking BRUTAL), 1.2% for Spain, and 0.002% for us.

Each death is a tragedy, but we are doing very well comparatively.

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1 minute ago, wrestlingnerd said:

That looks like a VERY flat curve to me.

Italy has a population of roughly 60 million citizens. Spain has 47M. USA has 329M. 

% of cases out of the total population (from your numbers) is 1.6% for Italy (fking BRUTAL), 1.2% for Spain, and 0.002% for us.

Each death is a tragedy, but we are doing very well comparatively.

I'm just skeptical as to are we really doing so much better, or are we just behind them a little in the chronology/timeline.  That's why I am paying most attention to the trends of total deaths and how they are rising each day/week.  It is a little.....little....reassuring that the percentage of our population currently dying is much lower.  But our trend in that the death numbers are doubling/tripling every five or six days is almost exactly replicating that of Italy and Spain, and that is really scary regardless of what percentage of the population it is. If a week from now we are like 1500 or something I would feel a good bit better about where we are headed.  That's still a lot of souls lost, but not at the exponentially growing rate that we have been seeing.   

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11 minutes ago, wrestlingnerd said:

That looks like a VERY flat curve to me.

Italy has a population of roughly 60 million citizens. Spain has 47M. USA has 329M. 

% of cases out of the total population (from your numbers) is 1.6% for Italy (fking BRUTAL), 1.2% for Spain, and 0.002% for us.

Each death is a tragedy, but we are doing very well comparatively.

But again look at where Italy and Spain's curve started to accelerate (which is pretty much where the graph is showing us right now) and then how it escalated from there.  Again that is what really scares me.  The curve will look small when the "doubling" is 40-80; 80-160; 160-320.  But now we are at 1000, doubling brings us to 2000.  Next one 4000........ So referencing that with your graph, look how long the lines for Italy and Spain go before they hit that first 1000 mark, then from there how quickly they are reaching the next 1000 marker.

Edited by Lurker

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2 minutes ago, Lurker said:

But again look at where Italy and Spain's curve started to accelerate (which is pretty much where the graph is showing us right now) and then how it escalated from there.  Again that is what really scares me.  The curve will look small when the "doubling" is 40-80; 80-160; 160-320.  But now we are at 1000, doubling brings us to 2000.  Next one 4000........

In any trend, the two most important factors are both axes (the count and the time). The fact that we've been at this for about as long as Europe and are still at two orders of magnitude lower in deaths relative to population is very encouraging. If you want to look at general "shape" of trend, you can use log scale, but that is rarely done for the x axis (time) which is such a dominant constant in most trends.

I get your concern, but I don't think your methodology for forecasting where we'll be in, say, a quarter or two, is a statistically good one. I mean this not as a knock but with the best of intentions so don't lay into me for my opinion like is so typical on here for these kinds of politically charged topics.

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Also, look at the national response relative to what Italy did and at which point of the national infection cycle. It is a lot closer to South Korea (the gold standard) than Italy (the sht standard). I'm not saying we did everything right. We had a couple of months of head start and basically sat on our hands, so I'm not saying there wasn't massive room for improvement there, but where things are now, the lockdown is a real thing in the most affected and at-risk states and there is a $2T stimulus package being activated. Not bad, or at least, could be a lot worse (see Italy around 0.002% death rate, which is where we are).

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1 minute ago, tommygun said:

Our national response is nowhere near South Korea.  We are not testing everyone.  Until we do that, we are closer to Italy than S Korea.  

Terrible take. The death toll does not lie. Reported deaths are hard to fake in this country. The more we test, the BETTER the results will be relative to deaths because as we count more confirmed cases, the % of deaths relative to those cases drops, not the other way around. We are nowhere near the cluster that is Italy right now and have never been throughout the spread.

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30 minutes ago, wrestlingnerd said:

In any trend, the two most important factors are both axes (the count and the time). The fact that we've been at this for about as long as Europe and are still at two orders of magnitude lower in deaths relative to population is very encouraging. If you want to look at general "shape" of trend, you can use log scale, but that is rarely done for the x axis (time) which is such a dominant constant in most trends.

I get your concern, but I don't think your methodology for forecasting where we'll be in, say, a quarter or two, is a statistically good one. I mean this not as a knock but with the best of intentions so don't lay into me for my opinion like is so typical on here for these kinds of politically charged topics.

I don't take your opinions and info as anything but sharing information, and I appreciate it.  I'm not a statistical analyst by any means (I'm a sports guy who's world is shut down so trying to keep my brain working, lol!), and I hope your interpretation of these numbers is closer to the reality ahead than mine!  But again my fear is that the raw number of people dying each day is increasing each day at a rate that the total dead is at least doubling every five or six days.  Until that trend curtails I am very concerned.  The one thing I would "argue" is....have we been at this as long as Europe, if you follow the increments it seams we are about a week to ten days behind from them, as to when we started getting spreading of the disease here in the States.

Edited by Lurker

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4 minutes ago, wrestlingnerd said:

What is there to question? They did it wrong. Period. They JUST mandated shutdown of nonessential industry, a major employer, FOUR days ago. 

You rated them as the “sht” standard. Who are you to do that? People there are faced with something brought into their country by a real shthole country and now they’re dying by the 1000’s. No one on the planet was ready for this, no one. I just did not appreciate the label, that is all. You have your opinion and I have mine.

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Just now, wrestlingnerd said:

I love Italian people. Don’t get me wrong. Obviously not their fault. Their leaders’ response to the virus was pathetic. Truly a case of gross incompetence. 

We're all (globally speaking) incompetent when it comes to facing something of this magnitude.

 ***Just read this - the virus just killed 13 people within 24 hours at Elmhurst Hospital in Queens, New York while the line to get tested was already down the block before sunrise today. Yea, this is serious.

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Just now, Marcus Cisero said:

We're all (globally speaking) incompetent when it comes to facing something of this magnitude.

 ***Just read this - the virus just killed 13 people within 24 hours at Elmhurst Hospital in Queens, New York while the line to get tested was already down the block before sunrise today. Yea, this is serious.

I read that NYT article also. To be clear, I said every single death is a tragedy. Never said it’s not serious. It was serious months ago and will still be serious until an efficacious vaccine is invented and approved for mass distribution. 
 

I am only stating the fact that the impact of this serious disease is dramatically different based on how each country responds. The jury is still out on our country, but I see little evidence of getting “Italied” at the moment. It’s still a national disaster and emergency. I don’t think the bailout is sufficient. I think we responded aggressively about two months too late. Nevertheless, I’d rather be American than Italian or Spanish. 

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