Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
Lurker

New numbers(c19)

Recommended Posts

21 hours ago, ionel said:

Really upbeat stuff there Tofurky.  :(

If above means you are hunkered for the weekend just waiting for the Sunday ESPN 2013 rebroadcast and you really like numbers (see thread title) here's some updated reading material:

https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest

I'm sorry, sir. I know it's not the favorite topic of the board, or just about anyone, but the article struck me as important to any discussion related to what is taking place. Though giving some pretty dire consequences, I think it also serves as a guide to reminding any and all of us not only what is at stake, but how responsible actions by us all can keep us from a worst case scenario future.

Maybe I am being naive or overly hopeful, but I have my fingers crossed that humanity will dislodge its collective head from its collective @$$.

Edited by Tofurky

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, Tofurky said:

I'm sorry, sir. I know it's not the favorite topic of the board, or just about anyone, but the article struck me as important to any discussion related to what is taking place. Though giving some pretty dire consequences, I think it also serves as a guide to reminding any and all of us not only what is at stake, but how responsible actions by us all can keep us from a worst case scenario future.

Maybe I am being naive or overly hopeful, but I have my fingers crossed that humanity will dislodge its collective head from its collective @$$.

Tofurky – I wouldn’t worry about it. Anything on the topic seems to be welcome. We’re from all over the country so it’s interesting to see what others have access to. High props to the mods for allowing this thread to even exist.

Just over an hour before the 2013 NCAA championship. The weather here in PA suc*s so it’s a great day for a replay!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Tofurky said:

I'm sorry, sir. I know it's not the favorite topic of the board, or just about anyone, but the article struck me as important to any discussion related to what is taking place. Though giving some pretty dire consequences, I think it also serves as a guide to reminding any and all of us not only what is at stake, but how responsible actions by us all can keep us from a worst case scenario future.

Maybe I am being naive or overly hopeful, but I have my fingers crossed that humanity will dislodge its collective head from its collective @$$.

I completely agree with you, no need to be sorry.  Was just pointing out that it's not good news & hence the :(         

Again if you haven't seen the link I posted they do a really good job of updating the entire world situation every day.  The 2 day, 3 day etc doubling trend lines provide very useful info of where we are heading & why doing what we are doing.  Now sure it doesn't mean much for those who've got their heads in the sand, or perhaps where you've suggested.  ;)

 

PS: it's about time to watch some wrestling on ESPN  :)

Edited by ionel

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hope those that were screaming “yeah but the flu” at the beginning of this thread, less than two weeks ago, are paying more attention now. As the really smart people have been telling is all along, when the number of dead is doubling from 10 to 20, from 100 to 200....people aren’t taking it seriously. Well we went from 1 to 1000 in 28 days. And 1000 to 5000 in less than a week. The next doubling is 10,000. And so on.  
 

Hope everyone takes this next month seriously...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, Lurker said:

Hope those that were screaming “yeah but the flu” at the beginning of this thread, less than two weeks ago, are paying more attention now. As the really smart people have been telling is all along, when the number of dead is doubling from 10 to 20, from 100 to 200....people aren’t taking it seriously. Well we went from 1 to 1000 in 28 days. And 1000 to 5000 in less than a week. The next doubling is 10,000. And so on.  
 

Hope everyone takes this next month seriously...

do you know anyone who isn't?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, Lurker said:

Hope those that were screaming “yeah but the flu” at the beginning of this thread, less than two weeks ago, are paying more attention now. As the really smart people have been telling is all along, when the number of dead is doubling from 10 to 20, from 100 to 200....people aren’t taking it seriously. Well we went from 1 to 1000 in 28 days. And 1000 to 5000 in less than a week. The next doubling is 10,000. And so on.  
 

Hope everyone takes this next month seriously...

Totally.  So many posts not aging well around here.  Makes a person that follows the data and science wonder how so many people could be so wrong?!?  And still wrong!!!!  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Marcus Cisero said:

do you know anyone who isn't?

ahh ... 70 twenty year olds chartered a plane to Cabo San Lucas, Mexico for spring break, evidently flew back home different commercial flights 28 of them with covid-19.

Bunch of NY folk flew out to Florida and others driving to beach houses in other states, not exactly the definition of "stay at home."  

But that's just 2 examples.  :(

Edited by ionel

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, ionel said:

ahh ... 70 twenty year olds chartered a plane to Cabo San Lucas, Mexico for spring break, evidently flew back home different commercial flights 28 of them with covid-19.

Bunch of NY folk flew out to Florida and others driving to beach houses in other states, not exactly the definition of "stay at home."  

But that's just 2 examples.  :(

I meant here in the forum, and yes - I'm aware of the things you've cited. Until it hits "home" some people are still going to do as they please while selfishly placing everyone around them at risk. That's the beauty of this board - we can chat / spar with one another without being any where near one another!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Marcus Cisero said:

I meant here in the forum, and yes - I'm aware of the things you've cited. Until it hits "home" some people are still going to do as they please while selfishly placing everyone around them at risk. That's the beauty of this board - we can chat / spar with one another without being any where near one another!

Well there's been plenty of "it's just the flu" on these here forums.  :(

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, ionel said:

Well there's been plenty of "it's just the flu" on these here forums.  :(

I'd be surprised since Lurker has been on this for quite some time....he's up to 8 pages and that's because people here are interested / concerned plus they're posting findings of their own. Hey, time to hit the sack ionel. Have a good night!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, ionel said:

Well there's been plenty of "it's just the flu" on these here forums.  :(

So true. Hopefully those stubborn folks either have or will soon reconsider and view this within the context of science and data, and come to see how serious it really is.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 hours ago, GreatWhiteNorth said:

So true. Hopefully those stubborn folks either have or will soon reconsider and view this within the context of science and data, and come to see how serious it really is.

 

We will hit 1 million confirmed cases worldwide, and 50,000 deaths before the end of the day today.  That's a death rate of about 5%.  And the number of cases is still accelerating.  Who knows where it levels off, let alone ends?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, red blades said:

We will hit 1 million confirmed cases worldwide, and 50,000 deaths before the end of the day today.  That's a death rate of about 5%.  And the number of cases is still accelerating.  Who knows where it levels off, let alone ends?

Thee numbers are understated. I strongly believe China reported dramatically adjusted numbers and the number of actual cases and deaths therein is approximately 7x worse than reported. I do think the overall trend reported is in the ballpark of accuracy but the absolute numbers reported are a complete joke, not quite an order of magnitude off. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, red blades said:

We will hit 1 million confirmed cases worldwide, and 50,000 deaths before the end of the day today.  That's a death rate of about 5%.  And the number of cases is still accelerating.  Who knows where it levels off, let alone ends?

The actual death rate is estimated to be between 0.5 and 1 % due to the present lack of testing worldwide (except in Germany and South Korea). To know exactly what it is will be impossible until serology can be performed on the population. Even that is still an exceptionally high number compared to the flu though.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
39 minutes ago, Billyhoyle said:

The actual death rate is estimated to be between 0.5 and 1 % due to the present lack of testing worldwide (except in Germany and South Korea). To know exactly what it is will be impossible until serology can be performed on the population. Even that is still an exceptionally high number compared to the flu though.

Agree on the testing, but looks like even Germany and South Korea are between 1-2% - https://www.vox.com/2020/4/1/21203198/coronavirus-deaths-us-italy-china-south-korea

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
58 minutes ago, wrestlingnerd said:

Thee numbers are understated. I strongly believe China reported dramatically adjusted numbers and the number of actual cases and deaths therein is approximately 7x worse than reported. I do think the overall trend reported is in the ballpark of accuracy but the absolute numbers reported are a complete joke, not quite an order of magnitude off. 

More discussion of this:  https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/china-concealed-extent-of-virus-outbreak-u-s-intelligence-says/ar-BB121FtR?ocid=msedgntp

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
51 minutes ago, 1032004 said:

Agree on the testing, but looks like even Germany and South Korea are between 1-2% - https://www.vox.com/2020/4/1/21203198/coronavirus-deaths-us-italy-china-south-korea

Even they have not successfully tested all of the asymptomatic cases. That’s why the serological tests will be necessary to get an accurate reflection of the numbers. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Leave us face it. Normalcy will return either when we have a dependable (sy over 80%) vaccine, or there is a test method as reliable and cheap and easy use as diabetic tests administered several times a day, or almost everyone has had it.

On that vein, maybe with the aircraft carrier, evacuate everyone who seems at hazard (ie over 55 or with a serious underlying condition), there should not be that many on active duty. Then let the disease spread among the crew. But yes 1-4 will die and 5-20 suffer illness as disabling as Robles's condition. 

 

Edited by RichB

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, red blades said:

We will hit 1 million confirmed cases worldwide, and 50,000 deaths before the end of the day today.  That's a death rate of about 5%.  And the number of cases is still accelerating.  Who knows where it levels off, let alone ends?

The actual death rate is SIGNIFICANTLY lower (of course it's 100% if it's you) these numbers do not reflect those that have had it and not tested. Over time I think we will find the numbers of people that ended up having it and surviving were MUCH higher than the unreliable numbers we have at present.

That said, in our house we are practicing all the recommendations. Don't wanna be in the 100%.

I have several friends in the lower 48 who think they probably had it and couldn't get tested.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, AKHUNTER said:

The actual death rate is SIGNIFICANTLY lower (of course it's 100% if it's you) these numbers do not reflect those that have had it and not tested. Over time I think we will find the numbers of people that ended up having it and surviving were MUCH higher than the unreliable numbers we have at present.

That said, in our house we are practicing all the recommendations. Don't wanna be in the 100%.

I have several friends in the lower 48 who think they probably had it and couldn't get tested.

Yes, I get that the number of actual cases is greater - and probably significantly so - than the number of confirmed cases, but at this juncture, confirmed cases are the only ones measurable.  I haven't seen any credible numbers on unconfirmed cases.

Ultimately, the question I'm looking at is where will this level off here in the US?  100,000 dead, as last suggested as a best case by the Trump administration?  or 1,000,000 dead?  Or something in between?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, AKHUNTER said:

The actual death rate is SIGNIFICANTLY lower (of course it's 100% if it's you) these numbers do not reflect those that have had it and not tested. Over time I think we will find the numbers of people that ended up having it and surviving were MUCH higher than the unreliable numbers we have at present.

That said, in our house we are practicing all the recommendations. Don't wanna be in the 100%.

I have several friends in the lower 48 who think they probably had it and couldn't get tested.

I think that's two very good points made here.  1) the current ambiguity of what the death rate is/will be.  But I think more important than that is what you bring up in 2) practicing all the recommendations.  I say that because I do believe that #2 will have the biggest impact on #1, up into the time there is a vaccine for this, which all the really smart people say is likely a year or so away.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 hours ago, russelscout said:

If a vaccine is developed, will Jenny McCarthy or people like her be for or against it?

There are still millions +  millions who think it is a hoax, or will never happen in their rural area. --- A report has a death in Pa's least populated county

Edited by RichB

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 4/1/2020 at 9:40 PM, Marcus Cisero said:

do you know anyone who isn't?

LJB's probably still trying to find greco tourneys for his son to run through, but kidding aside, I suspect even those claiming it's all a hoax online are keeping their distance in the grocery store.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...