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Idaho

2020 NCAA Simulation Underway

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13 hours ago, Idaho said:

@bnwtwg has an explanation on the wrestlestat thread - bring it over!

Sure, so the easy way to explain it is Trackwrestling is using magic to simulate this right now. h/t to @jross for explaining much better, and much more in line with the real-life bracket work haha.

 

The less simple explanation is the following:

Trackwrestling is using a Bayesian model to simulate this right now. In very simple terms I always point folks to QuantStart. Click here to view the Beginner's Guide which describes Bayes' Theorem where it is best described as a particular approach to applying probability to statistical problems. It provides us with mathematical tools to update our beliefs about random events in light of seeing new data or evidence about those events.

In particular Bayesian inference interprets probability as a measure of believability or confidence that an individual may possess about the occurance of a particular event.

We may have a prior belief about an event, but our beliefs are likely to change when new evidence is brought to light. Bayesian statistics gives us a solid mathematical means of incorporating our prior beliefs, and evidence, to produce new posterior beliefs.

They are most likely running this through Python, or possibly R if it is an academic project, which is at it's core a statistical mathematics coded program that helps develop predicative analytics and in this case probably using Random Forest models - this means one object will gain an outcome based on X number of decision trees. In this case a wrestling match will get its ultimate outcome via 20,000 (or whatever number they chose) decisions such as underhook at 1:32, single leg at 5:12, escape at 6:14. This is how the upsets such as SaDerian Perry over Real Woods and Patrick Glory losing were "decided."

Sorry for nerding out but this is cool to see because 1) it's math in a useful setting that everyone can appreciate 2) this is what I do for a living being applied to wrestling!

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3 minutes ago, bnwtwg said:

Sure, so the easy way to explain it is Trackwrestling is using magic to simulate this right now. h/t to @jross for explaining much better, and much more in line with the real-life bracket work haha.

 

The less simple explanation is the following:

Trackwrestling is using a Bayesian model to simulate this right now. In very simple terms I always point folks to QuantStart. Click here to view the Beginner's Guide which describes Bayes' Theorem where it is best described as a particular approach to applying probability to statistical problems. It provides us with mathematical tools to update our beliefs about random events in light of seeing new data or evidence about those events.

In particular Bayesian inference interprets probability as a measure of believability or confidence that an individual may possess about the occurance of a particular event.

We may have a prior belief about an event, but our beliefs are likely to change when new evidence is brought to light. Bayesian statistics gives us a solid mathematical means of incorporating our prior beliefs, and evidence, to produce new posterior beliefs.

They are most likely running this through Python, or possibly R if it is an academic project, which is at it's core a statistical mathematics coded program that helps develop predicative analytics and in this case probably using Random Forest models - this means one object will gain an outcome based on X number of decision trees. In this case a wrestling match will get its ultimate outcome via 20,000 (or whatever number they chose) decisions such as underhook at 1:32, single leg at 5:12, escape at 6:14. This is how the upsets such as SaDerian Perry over Real Woods and Patrick Glory losing were "decided."

Sorry for nerding out but this is cool to see because 1) it's math in a useful setting that everyone can appreciate 2) this is what I do for a living being applied to wrestling!

We need a wrestling sim like this for all to play!

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Quarters

125

  • Quarterfinal - Spencer Lee (Iowa) 21-0 won by major decision over Brandon Courtney (Arizona State) 27-6 (MD 9-0)
  • Quarterfinal - Jack Mueller (Virginia) 16-1 won by decision over Devin Schroder (Purdue) 28-6 (Dec 7-2)
  • Quarterfinal - Nicholas Piccininni (Oklahoma State) 29-2 won by major decision over Drew Hildebrandt (Central Michigan) 33-4 (MD 14-2)
  • Quarterfinal - Kilian Cardinale (Old Dominion) 28-9 won by major decision over Jakob Camacho (NC State) 22-7 (MD 14-6)

133

  • Quarterfinal - Sebastian Rivera (Northwestern) 16-2 won by major decision over Todd Small (Iowa State) 20-13 (MD 14-2)
  • Quarterfinal - Roman Bravo-Young (Penn State) 22-2 won by tech fall over Mickey Phillipi (Pittsburgh) 27-2 (TF-1.5 5:10 (21-6))
  • Quarterfinal - Austin DeSanto (Iowa) 20-4 won by decision over Charles Tucker (Cornell) 33-1 (Dec 6-4)
  • Quarterfinal - Seth Gross (Wisconsin) 30-2 won by major decision over Jaime Hernandez (North Carolina) 18-11 (MD 14-6)

141

  • Quarterfinal - Luke Pletcher (Ohio State) 29-1 won by decision over Tristan Moran (Wisconsin) 23-8 (Dec 8-1)
  • Quarterfinal - Ian Parker (Iowa State) 25-3 won by tech fall over Dom Demas (Oklahoma) 28-5 (TF-1.5 3:55 (15-0))
  • Quarterfinal - Dusty Hone (Oklahoma State) 24-9 won by decision over Noah Baughman (Cornell) 28-13 (Dec 7-3)
  • Quarterfinal - Nick Lee (Penn State) 23-1 won by decision over Mitch McKee (Minnesota) 27-8 (Dec 8-4)

149

  • Quarterfinal - Pat Lugo (Iowa) 24-1 won by decision over Collin Purinton (Nebraska) 20-10 (Dec 7-1)
  • Quarterfinal - Boo Lewallen (Oklahoma State) 24-2 won by decision over Brock Mauller (Missouri) 31-2 (Dec 13-8)
  • Quarterfinal - Sammy Sasso (Ohio State) 27-3 won by decision over Matthew Kolodzik (Princeton) 16-1 (Dec 10-9)
  • Quarterfinal - Austin O`Connor (North Carolina) 28-1 won by decision over Brayton Lee (Minnesota) 27-7 (Dec 10-3)

157

  • Quarterfinal - Ryan Deakin (Northwestern) 24-0 won by decision over Jacori Teemer (Arizona State) 19-6 (Dec 9-3)
  • Quarterfinal - Jesse Dellavecchia (Rider) 33-2 won by major decision over Logan Parks (Central Michigan) 24-13 (MD 10-1)
  • Quarterfinal - Wyatt Sheets (Oklahoma State) 23-7 won by major decision over David Carr (Iowa State) 20-2 (MD 13-5)
  • Quarterfinal - Hayden Hidlay (NC State) 31-1 won by decision over Eric Barone (Illinois) 17-14 (Dec 10-7)

165

  • Quarterfinal - Alex Marinelli (Iowa) 23-1 won by decision over Evan Wick (Wisconsin) 25-5 (Dec 13-8)
  • Quarterfinal - Isaiah White (Nebraska) 23-4 won by decision over Travis Wittlake (Oklahoma State) 29-3 (Dec 12-7)
  • Quarterfinal - Shane Griffith (Stanford) 31-0 won by decision over Jake Wentzel (Pittsburgh) 20-8 (Dec 2-0)
  • Quarterfinal - Vincenzo Joseph (Penn State) 18-1 won by fall over David McFadden (Virginia Tech) 23-6 (Fall 6:03)

174

  • Quarterfinal - Mark Hall (Penn State) 26-1 won by decision over Anthony Valencia (Arizona State) 24-7 (Dec 10-4)
  • Quarterfinal - Bryce Steiert (Northern Iowa) 30-3 won by decision over Dylan Lydy (Purdue) 33-3 (Dec 14-9)
  • Quarterfinal - Jordan Kutler (Lehigh) 24-1 won by major decision over Neal Richards (VMI) 40-8 (MD 10-2)
  • Quarterfinal - Devin Skatzka (Minnesota) 31-10 won by decision over Michael Kemerer (Iowa) 17-2 (Dec 2-1)

184

  • Quarterfinal - Taylor Lujan (Northern Iowa) 31-2 won by decision over Johnny Sebastian (Wisconsin) 14-9 (Dec 13-7)
  • Quarterfinal - Lou Deprez (Binghamton) 29-5 won by decision over Trent Hidlay (NC State) 25-5 (Dec 8-4)
  • Quarterfinal - Aaron Brooks (Penn State) 18-1 won by decision over Abe Assad (Iowa) 24-8 (Dec 7-6)
  • Quarterfinal - Owen Webster (Minnesota) 25-12 won by decision over Taylor Venz (Nebraska) 22-9 (Dec 6-3)

197

  • Quarterfinal - Kollin Moore (Ohio State) 30-0 won by decision over Patrick Brucki (Princeton) 23-6 (Dec 12-5)
  • Quarterfinal - Shakur Rasheed (Penn State) 11-6 won by decision over Ben Darmstadt (Cornell) 30-7 (Dec 14-8)
  • Quarterfinal - Christian Brunner (Purdue) 28-6 won by decision over Dakota Geer (Oklahoma State) 26-9 (Dec 13-11)
  • Quarterfinal - Noah Adams (West Virginia) 35-0 won by decision over Jay Aiello (Virginia) 29-5 (Dec 7-5)

285

  • Quarterfinal - Gable Steveson (Minnesota) 18-0 won by decision over Jordan Wood (Lehigh) 19-6 (Dec 13-6)
  • Quarterfinal - Matt Stencel (Central Michigan) 33-4 won by decision over Tanner Hall (Arizona State) 25-4 (Dec 13-12)
  • Quarterfinal - Trent Hillger (Wisconsin) 26-6 won by decision over Tony Cassioppi (Iowa) 22-4 (Dec 4-3)
  • Quarterfinal - Mason Parris (Michigan) 31-1 won by tech fall over Yaraslau Slavikouski (Harvard) 32-9 (TF-1.5 3:45 (16-1))

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Just now, russelscout said:

I was all good until Kem went down. Im not playing anymore

He got a random quarter upset. But ADS beats Tucker and all 10 Hawkeyes are still alive in the tournament. 

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12 minutes ago, Idaho said:

He got a random quarter upset. But ADS beats Tucker and all 10 Hawkeyes are still alive in the tournament. 

I know I know. Just messing, but lets me be real. Kem spanked Skatzka twice this year.

Edited by russelscout

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"The red pill represents an uncertain future—it would free him from the enslaving control of the machine-generated dream world and allow him to escape into the real world, but living the "truth of reality" is harsher and more difficult. On the other hand, the blue pill represents a beautiful prison—it would lead him back to ignorance, living in confined comfort without want or fear within the simulated reality of the Matrix." ( From Wikipedia: Red Pill and blue Pill...)

You know what pill, Neo took... ;-)

... what pill did the simulation take?

The Finals are still undecided.

D3

Edited by D3 for LU

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