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BigTimeFan

If / when the Olympics are postponed who benefits, who is hurt ?

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I’m thinking in all dimensions. Things like Zahid gets time to mature. Some people are getting older and another year hurts. Some people are going to be able to get back to training sooner than others. 

Edited by BigTimeFan

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My first thought is that it might really suck for JO. A postponement or cancellation will be yet another setback in an international wrestling career full of setbacks, and will probably be a pretty tough pill to swallow.

Helen might be another. A postponement might give her more time to heal and prepare mentally, but she’s said that she’s making this one last go in Tokyo and I get the feeling she’s kind of ready to take on the challenge and move on to other things.

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Frank Chamizo, because he apparently cannot be beaten if he is injury free....  

 

JO at 65kg could be interesting, but I don't see how he beats Otoguro, Aliev or Rashidov...  or even Punia for that matter - JO showed really awful defense against him this year.  

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In general you would think those who are just coming off injury having to adjust their weight upward to an Olympic weight class benefit.  Those who are getting “long in the tooth” vs. their competition, were trying to pull their weight down to an Olympic weight class, or were financially strained to keep up their training while supporting their family are hurt. 

Edited by MadMardigain

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Who benefits

Dieringer's weight lifting coach and protein powder distributor

Spencer Lee

Nolf because he can take time to heal back to 100%

Mekhi Lewis because he gets another year of freestyle under his belt

Anyone not named JB going 74kg

Ben Whitford has another year to return to age-group form

Cohlton Schultz has another year to grow

Adam Coon because the world has figured out how to handle his enormous size and now he can continue to focus on improving technique

Undefeated fantasy match forum superstar Aaron Pico because a return to wrestling may not be the worst idea for long-term career aspirations

Who is hurt

Burroughs the most because father time is undefeated

JO because he was on a real hot streak and it may have been the year he finally put it all together

Bo Nickal if 2020 really was the last year of wrestling and he fully goes MMA starting in 2021

Upperclassmen ORS because they went all in (Eierman, Fix, Micic, Suriano, etc). Now they may never return to school to get their degrees if they chase the Olympics again next year, or they may go for NCAAs and not be at their best for OTT. That is a serious conundrum to potentially give up one paramount life goal for another.

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14 minutes ago, Plasmodium said:

Burroughs is the oldest, so it may hurt him.  Gable Steveson will benefit.  Is Daton Fix suspended for a year or not?  If so, he is the biggest winner.

If Fix did indeed get popped (still hasn't been confirmed...) then it would be a 2 year ban correct?

Given the current landscape I wouldn't be surprised to see all WADA sanctions extend through two net total Olympics + World Championships rather than the standard 2 year ban.

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9 minutes ago, bnwtwg said:

Who benefits

Dieringer's weight lifting coach and protein powder distributor

Spencer Lee

Nolf because he can take time to heal back to 100%

Mekhi Lewis because he gets another year of freestyle under his belt

Anyone not named JB going 74kg

Ben Whitford has another year to return to age-group form

Cohlton Schultz has another year to grow

Adam Coon because the world has figured out how to handle his enormous size and now he can continue to focus on improving technique

Undefeated fantasy match forum superstar Aaron Pico because a return to wrestling may not be the worst idea for long-term career aspirations

Who is hurt

Burroughs the most because father time is undefeated

JO because he was on a real hot streak and it may have been the year he finally put it all together

Bo Nickal if 2020 really was the last year of wrestling and he fully goes MMA starting in 2021

Upperclassmen ORS because they went all in (Eierman, Fix, Micic, Suriano, etc). Now they may never return to school to get their degrees if they chase the Olympics again next year, or they may go for NCAAs and not be at their best for OTT. That is a serious conundrum to potentially give up one paramount life goal for another.

Spencer Lee does not need more time, so it’s not a benefit for him.  He’s already easily the guy, particularly with Fix being out.  

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4 minutes ago, Mokoma said:

Spencer Lee does not need more time, so it’s not a benefit for him.  He’s already easily the guy, particularly with Fix being out.  

I should have clarified.. any young medal threat can always do well with more time. I do not believe he needs more time at the domestic level.

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4 minutes ago, bnwtwg said:

I should have clarified.. any young medal threat can always do well with more time. I do not believe he needs more time at the domestic level.

Okay, fair, I didn’t consider his development against the worlds best.  That being said if Olympics were held next month, he’d win.

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13 hours ago, pamela said:

My first thought is that it might really suck for JO. A postponement or cancellation will be yet another setback in an international wrestling career full of setbacks, and will probably be a pretty tough pill to swallow.

Helen might be another. A postponement might give her more time to heal and prepare mentally, but she’s said that she’s making this one last go in Tokyo and I get the feeling she’s kind of ready to take on the challenge and move on to other things.

That's such a good point about JO. I hadn't thought of him. He's had a lot of bad beats timing-wise. Ugh. 

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1 hour ago, bnwtwg said:

I should have clarified.. any young medal threat can always do well with more time. I do not believe he needs more time at the domestic level.

I agree with this and with that if he can get more experience internationally (if!) then it could really help.

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2 hours ago, bnwtwg said:

Who benefits

Dieringer's weight lifting coach and protein powder distributor 

Spencer Lee

Nolf because he can take time to heal back to 100%

Mekhi Lewis because he gets another year of freestyle under his belt

Anyone not named JB going 74kg

Ben Whitford has another year to return to age-group form

Cohlton Schultz has another year to grow

Adam Coon because the world has figured out how to handle his enormous size and now he can continue to focus on improving technique

Undefeated fantasy match forum superstar Aaron Pico because a return to wrestling may not be the worst idea for long-term career aspirations

Who is hurt

Burroughs the most because father time is undefeated

JO because he was on a real hot streak and it may have been the year he finally put it all together

Bo Nickal if 2020 really was the last year of wrestling and he fully goes MMA starting in 2021

Upperclassmen ORS because they went all in (Eierman, Fix, Micic, Suriano, etc). Now they may never return to school to get their degrees if they chase the Olympics again next year, or they may go for NCAAs and not be at their best for OTT. That is a serious conundrum to potentially give up one paramount life goal for another.

First point had me laughing so loudly!

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2 hours ago, bnwtwg said:

If Fix did indeed get popped (still hasn't been confirmed...) then it would be a 2 year ban correct?

Given the current landscape I wouldn't be surprised to see all WADA sanctions extend through two net total Olympics + World Championships rather than the standard 2 year ban.

I hadn't heard about Fix. Geez. What happened? I will look it up, but the point of a ban becomes critical to clarify in situations like this. If he's suspended and the suspension is rendered meaningless because the Olympics are postponed then he is indeed a huge winner here.

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11 minutes ago, BigTimeFan said:

I hadn't heard about Fix. Geez. What happened? I will look it up, but the point of a ban becomes critical to clarify in situations like this. If he's suspended and the suspension is rendered meaningless because the Olympics are postponed then he is indeed a huge winner here.

It came from the guy who tweeted about Zahid getting busted around the same time. No idea if it's legit, but last I checked Fix was still on the OSU roster so at least there's that...

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10 hours ago, maligned said:

Anybody that's already qualified gets hurt. Hard to imagine a scenario where a 2021 or 2022 games lets 2019 results serve as its qualifier. Everything probably reboots.

Safe bet that will be no WC in 2020 or 2021 if the olympics are postponed, I would think they would let the 2019 results count for qualification.

It would be a shame for the 65kg Argentinian kid if he lost his spot and had to requalify  for 2021

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1 hour ago, Jim L said:

Safe bet that will be no WC in 2020 or 2021 if the olympics are postponed, I would think they would let the 2019 results count for qualification.

It would be a shame for the 65kg Argentinian kid if he lost his spot and had to requalify  for 2021

You might be right, but I don't think it's unfeasible at all to envision the rapidly-approaching July 24 Olympics behemoth getting postponed but a wrestling world championships being announced for the fall. And if so, would you then ignore those results for qualification for July 2021 in favor of results that will have happened 2 years prior to the Games?

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3 hours ago, maligned said:

You might be right, but I don't think it's unfeasible at all to envision the rapidly-approaching July 24 Olympics behemoth getting postponed but a wrestling world championships being announced for the fall. And if so, would you then ignore those results for qualification for July 2021 in favor of results that will have happened 2 years prior to the Games?

I wish there would be a 2020 WC, but I don't see that happening.  I guess late 2020/ early 2021 is possible and if so, yes those are the results that should be use for qualifying

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I can see Budapest hosting a late 2020 worlds, depending on how things look in 3-4 months. It will be a very, very bumpy ride on a number of issues/ topics but not entirely out of the realm of possibility.

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6 hours ago, maligned said:

You might be right, but I don't think it's unfeasible at all to envision the rapidly-approaching July 24 Olympics behemoth getting postponed but a wrestling world championships being announced for the fall. And if so, would you then ignore those results for qualification for July 2021 in favor of results that will have happened 2 years prior to the Games?

I don’t see that happening. It’s going to be, at the absolute earliest, fall before any events can be scheduled and executed. And they are not going to start up with world championships. Being that our sport qualifies the country, not the individual, I could very much see a scenario where they pick up where they left off in terms of the remaining qualifying tournaments, throw a couple other events in the mix...maybe even spice it up with one ranking series event....and proceed to 2021 Games. I don’t think anything that has happened up to this point, in terms of qualifications or rankings points, will be nullified. It’s going to take a **** ton of logistics and coordinating and creative scheduling...but they’re wrestlers. They’ll get it done. 

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10 hours ago, Lurker said:

I don’t see that happening. It’s going to be, at the absolute earliest, fall before any events can be scheduled and executed. And they are not going to start up with world championships. Being that our sport qualifies the country, not the individual, I could very much see a scenario where they pick up where they left off in terms of the remaining qualifying tournaments, throw a couple other events in the mix...maybe even spice it up with one ranking series event....and proceed to 2021 Games. I don’t think anything that has happened up to this point, in terms of qualifications or rankings points, will be nullified. It’s going to take a **** ton of logistics and coordinating and creative scheduling...but they’re wrestlers. They’ll get it done. 

When I wrote my thoughts, I was going on the assumption that the Games will be postponed for a full year to the same time slot--which is what Japanese organizers have said multiple times seems like the only truly feasible plan (even 2 years if they had their preference). Imagining an announcement in the next few weeks that the Games are July-August 2021, I think the entire UWW calendar gets reset and we see an autumn 2020 World Championships for all weights at the senior level put provisionally on the schedule. And if that happens, it's hard to imagine them not resetting the qualification process from scratch too, rather than granting berths earned 2 years before a competition.

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