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Spencer Lee Wins Hodge Trophy

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1 minute ago, CoachWrestling said:

Let's be real, Spencer wrestled at the weakest weight by far. He also didn't wrestle a bunch of the top guys. 

125 is way tougher than 197. He majored Picc, who on an entirely different tier than Moore's best win in Schultz, who he beat narrowly. 

The top 4 at 125 (all of whom Lee has beaten comfortably at some point if not this year) are all better than the 2nd best guy at 197.

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10 minutes ago, CoachWrestling said:

Let's be real, Spencer wrestled at the weakest weight by far. He also didn't wrestle a bunch of the top guys. 

Patently false. 197 was definitely weaker, as outlined by the good uncle, and so was 184 with Zahid gone.  Picc/Mueller/Glory/Lee is a better top 4 than many weights.

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1 hour ago, VakAttack said:

Patently false. 197 was definitely weaker, as outlined by the good uncle, and so was 184 with Zahid gone.  Picc/Mueller/Glory/Lee is a better top 4 than many weights.

Agreed, that’s a ridiculous take by CoachWrestling.  That top 4 is maybe the best top 4 of any weight class.  Rivera/Gross/DeSanto/RBY is probably the only other top 4 that is comparable.

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19 minutes ago, Mokoma said:

Agreed, that’s a ridiculous take by CoachWrestling.  That top 4 is maybe the best top 4 of any weight class.  Rivera/Gross/DeSanto/RBY is probably the only other top 4 that is comparable.

I would put 141, 149, 157, 184, and 197 behind 125 this year because of that top 4. You can also make a legit argument about 165, 174, and heavyweight. I think 165 has a good case to be ahead because of it's overall depth, but the top 4 at 125 are better. 174 has 3 really good guys, but falls off quite a bit after that, but the bottom half of the podium is probably better than the bottom half of 125. Same case with heavyweight. It depends if you value an elite top 4 over a more balanced tough 8.

I get that some people can watch Spencer run roughshod over it and assume it's weak, but that top 4 is super legit. I think the top 4 at 133 is better, but no other weight can match it. Rivera took 3rd there last year and was in a really tight one with Glory too and he ended up the top seed at the next weight up which is considered the deepest in the country.

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6 hours ago, Marcus Cisero said:

 

Relax Alexander - I'm a fan of great wrestling in general with an edge towards PSU because I just happen to live in the state that produces the best of the best. Certainly a man of your high caliber could understand since coach's from all around the country (including the coach from your favorite team) flock here to compete against one another to acquire even 1 of our kids to bolster their roster. By the way, who is your team?  Would that make you a "troll" for following them a little more than usual vs all other teams?  Now move on little man - aren't you supposed to redesign the $10 bill?

an "edge"........... yup a VERY sharp edge. of course you are welcome to it. But watching from a distance you are a VERY heavy lean to psu.

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46 minutes ago, Mokoma said:

Agreed, that’s a ridiculous take by CoachWrestling.  That top 4 is maybe the best top 4 of any weight class.  Rivera/Gross/DeSanto/RBY is probably the only other top 4 that is comparable.

Outside the top 4 there was nothing at 125

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2 hours ago, AKHUNTER said:

an "edge"........... yup a VERY sharp edge. of course you are welcome to it. But watching from a distance you are a VERY heavy lean to psu.

really AK? Yes I'm a fan of PSU but I do try to acknowledge other wrestlers from other teams - good, bad or indifferent. I enjoy the sport more that way. The VERY heavy lean you refer too is far more applicable to the Iowa fans that inhabit this board. I'm cool with that too.

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9 hours ago, Marcus Cisero said:

 

Relax Alexander - I'm a fan of great wrestling in general with an edge towards PSU because I just happen to live in the state that produces the best of the best. Certainly a man of your high caliber could understand since coach's from all around the country (including the coach from your favorite team) flock here to compete against one another to acquire even 1 of our kids to bolster their roster. By the way, who is your team?  Would that make you a "troll" for following them a little more than usual vs all other teams?  Now move on little man - aren't you supposed to redesign the $10 bill?

$20 bill son...and that has been put on hold.

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32 minutes ago, Marcus Cisero said:

really AK? Yes I'm a fan of PSU but I do try to acknowledge other wrestlers from other teams - good, bad or indifferent. I enjoy the sport more that way. The VERY heavy lean you refer too is far more applicable to the Iowa fans that inhabit this board. I'm cool with that too.

The view from here says you are equal to those Iowa fans..... it's ok..... but you are fooling yourself if you think you are different. It's quite easy to see from outside the bubble. I don't have a problem with anyone having "their" team. It's good for the sport.

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5 minutes ago, AKHUNTER said:

The view from here says you are equal to those Iowa fans..... it's ok..... but you are fooling yourself if you think you are different. It's quite easy to see from outside the bubble. I don't have a problem with anyone having "their" team. It's good for the sport.

AKHUNTER --------------------------------------> reasonable guy. 

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Not sure if this was already mentioned (I skipped to the last page), but I have to assume he's the first non-champion to win the award, yes?  Furthermore, anyone saying 125 was a weak weight class should be ousted from this site.  

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58 minutes ago, Chrissn2001 said:

Not sure if this was already mentioned (I skipped to the last page), but I have to assume he's the first non-champion to win the award, yes?  Furthermore, anyone saying 125 was a weak weight class should be ousted from this site.  

There’s been a couple that didn’t win the D1 championship that did win the Hodge.

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i get the argument that fewer matched is bad. Look if someone won a single match by fall he’d have a 100% everything rate and it’s a joke to talk Hodge. So at some point not enough matches matters. So how where do you draw the line? The answer is it’s not a line. It’s an I’d Rasini threshold for each match not wrestled. For Lee to win with only eighteen matches meant he had to be that much better. His level of dominance accounts for the missing matches. 

Here is Metcalf’s Hodge citation 

THIS SEASON, Metcalf posted a season record of 39-1, which included 12 pins, seven tech falls and nine major decisions. Seventy percent (28) of his victories were by pin, tech fall or major. The other top-two contenders were Keith Gavin (174) of Pittsburgh and Ohio State’s Mike Pucillo (184).

VS Lee’s 

The numbers were all-time. He went 18-0 with four pins, nine techs, three majors, a seven-point decision, and a forfeit. That gives him a dominance score of 4.94 and a bonus rate of 94 percent. Note, the NCAA "most dominant award" officially has him at five because they count the forfeit.

So Metcalf wrestled 40 times, more than 2x Lee. So naturally you’d expect that in 40 goes you might lose one. If someone has a one in forty chance of losing and wrestled 18 times then the probably of losing once is around 37% so maybe Lee could lose one if he wrestled forty times. Meanwhile Metcalf has a 70% bonus rate and 9 of 28 of his bonus wins were mere major decisions versus Lee’s 94% bonus rate of which 3 out of 16 were majors. So Metcalf has 29% of his bonuses were majors versus 19% of Lee’s. So if Lee were to have wrestled 40 matches or 30 it’s certainly possible his bonus rate and level of dominance would have fallen. But he’d have had a long way to go. 
 

 

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1 minute ago, StallWarning said:

Do people really have a problem with Spencer Lee winning?  This was a pretty easy choice.  

A few do, myself included.  I’m not mad he won, necessarily, but I think there was some reasons to pick Moore instead.  
 

Spencer is the best in college wrestling currently, just didn’t like the biggest award of the shortened season going to a guy that did not wrestle in his toughest dual or semis and finals of his toughest tourney.

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On 3/31/2020 at 6:48 PM, BigTimeFan said:

i get the argument that fewer matched is bad. Look if someone won a single match by fall he’d have a 100% everything rate and it’s a joke to talk Hodge. So at some point not enough matches matters. So how where do you draw the line? The answer is it’s not a line. It’s an I’d Rasini threshold for each match not wrestled. For Lee to win with only eighteen matches meant he had to be that much better. His level of dominance accounts for the missing matches. 

Here is Metcalf’s Hodge citation 

THIS SEASON, Metcalf posted a season record of 39-1, which included 12 pins, seven tech falls and nine major decisions. Seventy percent (28) of his victories were by pin, tech fall or major. The other top-two contenders were Keith Gavin (174) of Pittsburgh and Ohio State’s Mike Pucillo (184).

VS Lee’s 

The numbers were all-time. He went 18-0 with four pins, nine techs, three majors, a seven-point decision, and a forfeit. That gives him a dominance score of 4.94 and a bonus rate of 94 percent. Note, the NCAA "most dominant award" officially has him at five because they count the forfeit.

So Metcalf wrestled 40 times, more than 2x Lee. So naturally you’d expect that in 40 goes you might lose one. If someone has a one in forty chance of losing and wrestled 18 times then the probably of losing once is around 37% so maybe Lee could lose one if he wrestled forty times. Meanwhile Metcalf has a 70% bonus rate and 9 of 28 of his bonus wins were mere major decisions versus Lee’s 94% bonus rate of which 3 out of 16 were majors. So Metcalf has 29% of his bonuses were majors versus 19% of Lee’s. So if Lee were to have wrestled 40 matches or 30 it’s certainly possible his bonus rate and level of dominance would have fallen. But he’d have had a long way to go. 
 

 

His would have dropped significantly if he wrestled in his 2 toughest matches and 3 of 4.  Give him a major against DeAugustino and 2 decisions against Glory (I realize he potentially could have done better in those 3 matches), and all of the sudden he is quite a bit lower.

Edited by Mokoma
Fixed typo

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Mokomo - Lee beat Glory in two matches 30-6 and would have technical falled DeAugustino in the first period--I'm not a betting person, but I would go all in on predicting that tech fall--okay if I'm betting I would take the second period or earlier expecting it to happen in the first.  DeAugustino had a good season and is a good wrestler, but he lost to Prata, (Lee pinned Prata in the first and it was quick), Schroeder beat DeAugustino 11-2, Schroeder turned DeAugustino with a tilt....(Lee beat Schroader 34-2 this year in two matches), as an example.  You're trying really hard to down grade the kids accomplishments.  It's really comical, but also noteworthy how hard you're trying.  Iowa doesn't wrestle Division III schools to open the season anymore either that assuredly padded the stats in the past for some of their guys. This can go back and forth...season to season, competitor by competitor, why can't you just say, congratulations?  Are you related to someone that he beat on in the past?  The voters had him something like 53 of 56 votes for the best or the second best margin of victory ever.  The fans had him ahead by 8,000 votes--I guess you simply feel that your right and the majority of everyone else is wrong.  Could be the case or maybe you have an ax to grind.  I think it's probably the latter:-). Take an Advil or two or three, relax, history has been made and he was selected and no one is taking it back--try to let it go, all of this stress is bad for your health:-). 

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27 minutes ago, mistydawn said:

Mokomo - Lee beat Glory in two matches 30-6 and would have technical falled DeAugustino in the first period--I'm not a betting person, but I would go all in on predicting that tech fall--okay if I'm betting I would take the second period or earlier expecting it to happen in the first.  DeAugustino had a good season and is a good wrestler, but he lost to Prata, (Lee pinned Prata in the first and it was quick), Schroeder beat DeAugustino 11-2, Schroeder turned DeAugustino with a tilt....(Lee beat Schroader 34-2 this year in two matches), as an example.  You're trying really hard to down grade the kids accomplishments.  It's really comical, but also noteworthy how hard you're trying.  Iowa doesn't wrestle Division III schools to open the season anymore either that assuredly padded the stats in the past for some of their guys. This can go back and forth...season to season, competitor by competitor, why can't you just say, congratulations?  Are you related to someone that he beat on in the past?  The voters had him something like 53 of 56 votes for the best or the second best margin of victory ever.  The fans had him ahead by 8,000 votes--I guess you simply feel that your right and the majority of everyone else is wrong.  Could be the case or maybe you have an ax to grind.  I think it's probably the latter:-). Take an Advil or two or three, relax, history has been made and he was selected and no one is taking it back--try to let it go, all of this stress is bad for your health:-). 

I said he is the best college wrestler currently.  But let’s be honest he beat Glory 12-6 in the most recent match and that is likely about the gap or less between them currently in folk style.  I agree a tech or pin is likely against DeAugustino but that still would reduce is his from 5 by quite a bit.

 

Not to mention your post is factually incorrect.

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59 minutes ago, Mokoma said:

I said he is the best college wrestler currently.  But let’s be honest he beat Glory 12-6 in the most recent match and that is likely about the gap or less between them currently in folk style.  I agree a tech or pin is likely against DeAugustino but that still would reduce is his from 5 by quite a bit.

 

Not to mention your post is factually incorrect.

I think it's just as likely SL wrestles him differently and the gap is significantly more.

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Man, I know Rivera expressed a number of times during interviews he will not go back down to 125, but I'll tell you what - I wish he would, not only to see him beat Spencer a 3rd time, 4th and perhaps a 5th time, but to shut down the vast majority of Iowa-can-do-no-wrong fans who run the roost on this board. Hell, I'd even pay to see that!

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11 hours ago, mistydawn said:

Mokomo - Lee beat Glory in two matches 30-6 and would have technical falled DeAugustino in the first period--I'm not a betting person, but I would go all in on predicting that tech fall--okay if I'm betting I would take the second period or earlier expecting it to happen in the first.  DeAugustino had a good season and is a good wrestler, but he lost to Prata, (Lee pinned Prata in the first and it was quick), Schroeder beat DeAugustino 11-2, Schroeder turned DeAugustino with a tilt....(Lee beat Schroader 34-2 this year in two matches), as an example.  You're trying really hard to down grade the kids accomplishments.  It's really comical, but also noteworthy how hard you're trying.  Iowa doesn't wrestle Division III schools to open the season anymore either that assuredly padded the stats in the past for some of their guys. This can go back and forth...season to season, competitor by competitor, why can't you just say, congratulations?  Are you related to someone that he beat on in the past?  The voters had him something like 53 of 56 votes for the best or the second best margin of victory ever.  The fans had him ahead by 8,000 votes--I guess you simply feel that your right and the majority of everyone else is wrong.  Could be the case or maybe you have an ax to grind.  I think it's probably the latter:-). Take an Advil or two or three, relax, history has been made and he was selected and no one is taking it back--try to let it go, all of this stress is bad for your health:-). 

Misty - that was well written but here's a question I'll present, then answer myself. 

Question: How many times will Spencer meet Glory next season? Answer: Once - during the NCAA.  I'll predict the same if Vito Arujau doesn't move up (and don't tell me how bad Lee beat him during freestyle - its irrelevant to me).  This season will be Lee's last and you can bet all the farms in Iowa Brands will implement the greatest "duck" option wrestling has ever seen to protect him right up to the big dance in March. I'm not a betting man either but I'm willing to bet my words over yours. 

Edited by Marcus Cisero

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12 hours ago, mistydawn said:

Mokomo - Lee beat Glory in two matches 30-6 and would have technical falled DeAugustino in the first period--I'm not a betting person, but I would go all in on predicting that tech fall--okay if I'm betting I would take the second period or earlier expecting it to happen in the first.  DeAugustino had a good season and is a good wrestler, but he lost to Prata, (Lee pinned Prata in the first and it was quick), Schroeder beat DeAugustino 11-2, Schroeder turned DeAugustino with a tilt....(Lee beat Schroader 34-2 this year in two matches), as an example.  You're trying really hard to down grade the kids accomplishments.  It's really comical, but also noteworthy how hard you're trying.  Iowa doesn't wrestle Division III schools to open the season anymore either that assuredly padded the stats in the past for some of their guys. This can go back and forth...season to season, competitor by competitor, why can't you just say, congratulations?  Are you related to someone that he beat on in the past?  The voters had him something like 53 of 56 votes for the best or the second best margin of victory ever.  The fans had him ahead by 8,000 votes--I guess you simply feel that your right and the majority of everyone else is wrong.  Could be the case or maybe you have an ax to grind.  I think it's probably the latter:-). Take an Advil or two or three, relax, history has been made and he was selected and no one is taking it back--try to let it go, all of this stress is bad for your health:-). 

Does Advil work for butthurt?

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