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NCAA Championship - 197lbs Predictions - WrestleStat

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I charged forward while Warner stepped backwards and circled to try and fend off my attacks.  To appear as if he was wrestling, Warner took a fake shot and then backed up.  I counter shot and got in deep on a single.  Normally I get a takedown in these situations but somehow Warner hipped into a stonewall sprawl and out we tumbled towards the edge of the mat, landing hard...

The next thing I remember was the ref signalling for two, his voice seemed to echo from a far off distance.  Time and space slowed down.  Things appeared somewhat hazy.  A trainer appeared and was shining a light at me.  "Hello son, is there anybody in there?" came his deep, soothing voice.  "Just nod if you can hear me."  And nod I did, at least I think I did.  "Relax, I need some information first, just the basic facts, can you show me where it hurts?"

But there wasn't any pain, it was more like everything was receding. I noticed the ref's lips move but I couldn't hear what he was saying.  When I was sophomore I had a similar feeling. Now I had that feeling once again. I can't explain, you wouldn't understand.

"O.K." said the trainer. "Just a little pin prick..."

AHHHHHHHHHH!

"Can you stand up? I do believe it's working...good. That'll keep you going through the match.  Come on, your injury time is almost up.", the trainer said as he all but dragged me back to center mat.  The two points had been waved off.

 "Neutral.  Step to the line.", barked the ref. "You have no more injury time left.  On my whistle..."

 

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141 and 197 were direct outcomes from the the wrestlestat algorithm and I have/am providing color to it.  149 -- I didn't collect the data before the wrestlestat website removed this past season's seniors from the match outcome predictor.  All three wrestlers were capable of winning the NCAAs.  Moore could had been considered a lock.  Pletcher was a toss up.  Sasso was right there and yeah I expected top 4 from him.  I do not know the algorithm for wrestlestat.  I don't know if there is a bias against the real OSU but there seems to be favoritism for Iowa.

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"Tweet."  I charged forward and drove Warner back with a ducker under attempt, pushed him backwards and cut off his circling in a head tie, and then shot again.  Warner sprawled but I had my fingertips on his outer thighs and I drove him off the mat.  "Stalling Red.  1 point green.  Back to the center gentlemen.  On my whistle."

 

 

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Time is short.  "Tweet!"  I charged forward and Warner was backing up and circling and backing. I applied pressure and moved him aggressively to the end of the mat.  "Whoa, I went flying out-of-bounds as Warner used my momentum against me and lat dropped me out of bounds.  Warner had not done anything productive outside of the opening minutes but it did not matter.  It happened again.  I lost in the NCAAs.  I have wrestled Warner inside and outside of college.  He had never beaten me before.  Merry Christmas Warner.

15862195483930986-3995673541.jpg

Warner over Moore 8-7.

Edited by jross

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1 hour ago, jross said:

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15862195483930986-3995673541.jpg

Warner over Moore 8-7.

This makes me question the legitimacy of the rest of this.  I was willing to accept Pletcher and Sasso and frankly those outcomes seemed very plausible but disappointing.  What is it about the numerous ass kickings Moore has given Warner, and Moore's dominant undefeated season that would make wrestlstat predict that result?  Does it look at strictly that wrestler's results or others from that team (could Martin being upset last year be effecting this prediction).  Otherwise I got nothing.

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(1) Kollin Moore (OHST) 27-0 Over (2) Noah Adams (WVU) 32-0 By Score 8 - 3

Don't let the photo fool you.  Kollin wrestled angry and showed Noah what the Big 10 is all about.

image.png

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AA 5th

Noah's Revenge

(2) Noah Adams (WVU) 32-0 Over (3) Eric Schultz (NEB) 23-4 By Score 6 - 5

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Adams got a small sampling of national tournament wrestling last year, and it left a bitter taste in his mouth. He wasn't two-and-barbeque in Pittsburgh last March, but his stay in the Steel City wasn't an extended one either.  He dropped his opening match to NC State's Malik McDonald, won the first wrestle-back against 29th-ranked Brandon Whitman of North Carolina and then lost to Nebraska's Eric Schultz to conclude his abbreviated tournament run.  Noah took a week off to clear his mind and then spent the next couple of months literally living in the WVU Wrestling Pavilion.  By the end of last summer, he was a different dude, mentally and physically.
 
"Leaving NCAAs last year without being on the podium was disappointing to me, but at the same time I think I learned from it," Noah admitted. "I learned what I needed to do and I've always had that in the back of my head motivating me to keep me going when everything is hard."  "I think when you get to that stage and you don't have the success and you see some other guys have success that maybe you think you can beat, that bothers you," Coach Flynn added.  Noah Adams' single most important lesson from that experience was realizing that nothing replaces good, old-fashioned hard work because the wrestling gods simply won't allow it.  "He's more sound," Flynn admitted. "It sounds funny, but it's just the basics such as keeping his level down. Last year, he was standing straight up and guys were getting in on his legs so we've fixed that.  "And he's making a real attempt to hold people down, which before he would just let people go," Flynn added. wvusports.com  

"I did not reach my goal of becoming a national champion this year.  It was good to finish with a win over Eric.  I'll be back.", said Noah.

 

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On 6/27/2020 at 9:10 AM, balanceseeker said:

This makes me question the legitimacy of the rest of this.  I was willing to accept Pletcher and Sasso and frankly those outcomes seemed very plausible but disappointing.  What is it about the numerous ass kickings Moore has given Warner, and Moore's dominant undefeated season that would make wrestlstat predict that result?  Does it look at strictly that wrestler's results or others from that team (could Martin being upset last year be effecting this prediction).  Otherwise I got nothing.

always seemed to me that there is Penn State/Iowa favoritism (and maybe some tOSU hate) built into the wrestlestat algorithm. 

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