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shieldofpistis

What percentage chance did Moore have to win?

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I honestly think he may have had a higher probability than Lee, not because he's better, but because Lee had more legit threats. You could see paths to victory for multiple Lee opponents. Mueller could have snaked a takedown and got his boots in. Picc could have maybe cradled him again. Glory had the best shot imo as he's incredibly dangerous in scrambles and on top. I wouldn't pick any of those guys to beat Spencer, but I don't think anybody at 197 could really threaten Moore other than maybe Darmstadt who Moore has dominated every time.

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2 hours ago, uncle bernard said:

I honestly think he may have had a higher probability than Lee, not because he's better, but because Lee had more legit threats. You could see paths to victory for multiple Lee opponents. Mueller could have snaked a takedown and got his boots in. Picc could have maybe cradled him again. Glory had the best shot imo as he's incredibly dangerous in scrambles and on top. I wouldn't pick any of those guys to beat Spencer, but I don't think anybody at 197 could really threaten Moore other than maybe Darmstadt who Moore has dominated every time.

Mueller? The guy who got smashed by Camacho? Glory, the guy who struggled with Lee's backup?

 

Edited by AHamilton

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I would have been rooting for Moore, but 85% is absurd.  Being the best at the weight, and knowing you were already the best at the weight, in a prior year, and didn't win makes for a hell of a lot of pressure.  When thinking about Moore's chances before the tournament was cancelled, my mind kept seeing parallels with Robert Kokesh.

Maybe 60%

 

 

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Moore was better than Pfarr in 2017 (if Big Tens means anything) and lost to him at NCAAs. He was better than everyone in 2018 and lost to Conel...twice. The fact that he was better than everyone this year doesn't mean much in his case at NCAAs.

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5 hours ago, Fletcher said:

Moore was better than Pfarr in 2017 (if Big Tens means anything) and lost to him at NCAAs. He was better than everyone in 2018 and lost to Conel...twice. The fact that he was better than everyone this year doesn't mean much in his case at NCAAs.

It's amazing people take one bad tournament and think the guy's a choker. He was seeded behind Pfarr. He's wrestled to his seed every time except as a sophomore and the only way he could have wrestled to the seed was win it all. Everybody last year was saying wait till Weigel gets on top he'll dominate Moore. Not only could he be not ride him he couldn't keep from getting taken down about 20 times. Same with Darmstadt. Just like the other poster said Moore was a bigger favorite than anybody because there's less competition at 197 this year. The guys had one bad tournament ever. A choker he's not. 

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13 hours ago, AHamilton said:

Mueller? The guy who got smashed by Camacho? Glory, the guy who struggled with Lee's backup?

 

Yeah, I wouldn't pick it, but Mueller has a path to victory. We saw it against Rivera last year. If he gets the first takedown, things get dangerous. And Glory didn't struggle with Cashman. Get real. Glory put Lee on his back twice last year. I don't think anybody in the 197 field has that kind of capability against Moore.

My reasoning here is pretty simple. I think 125 is a much better weight than 197. Lee is way better than Moore, but he has far more serious challengers.

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17 minutes ago, uncle bernard said:

Yeah, I wouldn't pick it, but Mueller has a path to victory. We saw it against Rivera last year. If he gets the first takedown, things get dangerous. And Glory didn't struggle with Cashman. Get real. Glory put Lee on his back twice last year. I don't think anybody in the 197 field has that kind of capability against Moore.

My reasoning here is pretty simple. I think 125 is a much better weight than 197. Lee is way better than Moore, but he has far more serious challengers.

This wasn't the same Mueller, sorry. Nor was it the same Lee.

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14 hours ago, Jaroslav Hasek said:

I would have happily placed a 1/10 bet in Moore's favor. that's roughly 91% chance to win, bet 10 to win 11 (no vig). He was better than everyone except Nickal last year and this year he was just better than everybody. anyone who suggests otherwise wasn't paying attention. 

Yeah, he was killing guys out there. He deserved some Hodge talk, imo.

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3 hours ago, AHamilton said:

This wasn't the same Mueller, sorry. Nor was it the same Lee.

Okay, throw out Mueller and my point still stands. I think Glory is a much bigger threat to Lee than anybody Moore had in his bracket, especially with how aggressive Spencer is. 

You're acting like I would pick them over Lee. I wouldn't. 

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On 4/28/2020 at 7:12 PM, Jaroslav Hasek said:

I would have happily placed a 1/10 bet in Moore's favor. that's roughly 91% chance to win, bet 10 to win 11 (no vig). He was better than everyone except Nickal last year and this year he was just better than everybody. anyone who suggests otherwise wasn't paying attention. 

You nailed it

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Gotta think of this as how much money would you put down to get paid $100 for Moore winning.  Would you really risk $800 to win $100 on Moore?  I’d take the field in that bet.  

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16 hours ago, nom said:

Gotta think of this as how much money would you put down to get paid $100 for Moore winning.  Would you really risk $800 to win $100 on Moore?  I’d take the field in that bet.  

I’m not really up on betting terminology.

What % chance to win is risking $800 to win $100 and in that scenario what would you need to risk to win $100 if betting on the field?

Regardless, what bet you would make isn’t the same as if you actually think they’d win.  A lot of people would rather throw down a few bucks on something with low odds

 

 

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