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Wrestling Season 2020-2021

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2 hours ago, SetonHallPirate said:

No, that's not the threshold before the deaths are important, but the threshold we recently (in the last week) hit with COVID-19. As for me, somebody I work with tested positive for the disease (don't worry, he's back healthy). We're looking at, as of right now, about a 5% mortality rate for COVID-19, which is at least an order of magnitude higher than the flu most years (in most years, it's about .1 to .2%), which is why we're doing all of this social distancing, something we haven't done in my lifetime, or (most likely) anybody's lifetime on this message board (was anybody on this board around during World War I?)

It's not 5% mortality for people who have been positive for the virus, maybe those confirmed to have the virus but no way 5% when you factor in all the people who have been positive but not tested due to not needing medical care.

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5 minutes ago, BLT said:

It's not 5% mortality for people who have been positive for the virus, maybe those confirmed to have the virus but no way 5% when you factor in all the people who have been positive but not tested due to not needing medical care.

Correct. Early studies (emphasize early) show 20% of NYC residents have COVID antibodies.
Population of 8.2 million people and 20k COVID deaths so...so nowhere near 5%. Not to be dismissive of 20k deaths though, a staggering number. 

Side note: I had COVID and it SUCKED. I’m 39 and otherwise completely healthy and at its worst it was by far the sickest I’ve ever been...at least as an adult. Worst of it was over kind of quick though. First felt sick on a Sunday morning, fever was at 103.7 Monday night, and then completely gone Tuesday morning. Cough and other symptoms stuck around for more than a week though. I’m no expert on the flu and can only speak from my own experience but at my sickest it was an order of magnitude worse than any flu I’ve had.

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6 hours ago, SetonHallPirate said:

No, that's not the threshold before the deaths are important, but the threshold we recently (in the last week) hit with COVID-19. As for me, somebody I work with tested positive for the disease (don't worry, he's back healthy). We're looking at, as of right now, about a 5% mortality rate for COVID-19, which is at least an order of magnitude higher than the flu most years (in most years, it's about .1 to .2%), which is why we're doing all of this social distancing, something we haven't done in my lifetime, or (most likely) anybody's lifetime on this message board (was anybody on this board around during World War I?)

I think you're off a decimal point on the mortality rate...or two.

 

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49 minutes ago, Peso said:

I think you're off a decimal point on the mortality rate...or two.

 

I know I'm linking to a Wikipedia article here, which is dangerous, but allow me to go through the numbers: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic

71,921 deaths, 1,233,146 cases equates to a 5.8% mortality rate. If I'm off by an order of magnitude on the mortality rate, the issue in this case is that the number of actual cases is 10x higher, not my calculations being off.

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1 hour ago, SetonHallPirate said:

I know I'm linking to a Wikipedia article here, which is dangerous, but allow me to go through the numbers: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic

71,921 deaths, 1,233,146 cases equates to a 5.8% mortality rate. If I'm off by an order of magnitude on the mortality rate, the issue in this case is that the number of actual cases is 10x higher, not my calculations being off.

That’s 100% the issue...nobody is saying your math is wrong. The number of Americans who have had COVID is more than 10x the cumulative number that have currently tested positive. I don’t think you’ll find many - if any - experts (which I am not) who disagree. Every early antibody study (emphasis on early and de-emphasis on study) done to date supports that. 

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On 5/5/2020 at 10:32 PM, SetonHallPirate said:

I know I'm linking to a Wikipedia article here, which is dangerous, but allow me to go through the numbers: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic

71,921 deaths, 1,233,146 cases equates to a 5.8% mortality rate. If I'm off by an order of magnitude on the mortality rate, the issue in this case is that the number of actual cases is 10x higher, not my calculations being off.

As you've stated not good to go to wiki for this kind of data.  But also you can't compute mortality rate from these "confirmed cases."

The 5.8% is where a lot of experts thought it was early on, but now we have better data.  Those taking a statistical sampling approach (see the Stanford study etc) are saying indicating the mortality rate may be about the same as flu and maybe a bit less.  We will have much better info when their 27 location MLB results come out next week.

Now that doesn't mean it's less dangerous and we probably were doing the right thing to shutdown initially.  The issues (see what some of us were saying early on in the other thread, prob buried on page 10-15 by now) early R0 was at 3 maybe 5+.  With those numbers (and Italy good example) hospitals and staff were going to be overwhelmed if we did nothing.  That generally doesn't happen with Flu although it did in some areas for the 17/18 but it wasn't NY so no one cared.  

Another issue they learned later is asymptomatic folks out there and they could shed the virus many having never known they had it.  The other difference, according to med experts (at least at this point), is we know who ~95% of folks are who will die from covid-19 so potentially makes it easier to protect them than with flu victims. 

Early out break R0 was very high but R0 and mortality rates both generally come down over time.  However, the research data suggest that mortality rate was never as high as suggested at early stage.

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On 5/5/2020 at 11:32 PM, SetonHallPirate said:

I know I'm linking to a Wikipedia article here, which is dangerous, but allow me to go through the numbers: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic

71,921 deaths, 1,233,146 cases equates to a 5.8% mortality rate. If I'm off by an order of magnitude on the mortality rate, the issue in this case is that the number of actual cases is 10x higher, not my calculations being off.

That's the Case Fatality Rate, or CFR (fatalities/positives).  The Infection Fatality Rate, or IFR (fatalities/infections), is undoubtedly far lower, and without more testing we don't know what that value is.

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1 hour ago, ionel said:

source?

Even if Fanta is right it's only for the time being. As 2021 approaches, the NCAA will be changing it's mind. This viral plague has a Hodge grip.

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Football - 22 different guys running around making contact, breathing, spitting, and handling the same ball. 44 if you count offense and defense for each team. Mouths are not covered. 

Soccer - 22 players on field at same time making contact with each other. No protection. 

Lacrosse - 20 players on field making contact. Mouths are not covered. 

Basketball - 10 players on court making contact. No protection. 

Wrestling - 2 people on mat. No protection. 

Don’t know about you guys, but the rest of those sports seem a lot more dangerous for spread than wrestling. We will learn a lot based on how football is handled. 

Edited by SamStall365247

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I don't see how any contact sport is going to commence this year.  All it takes is single positive test to quarantine an entire team since they will all count as exposed, not to mention the team they played.

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19 hours ago, SamStall365247 said:

Football - 22 different guys running around making contact, breathing, spitting, and handling the same ball. 44 if you count offense and defense for each team. Mouths are not covered. 

Soccer - 22 players on field at same time making contact with each other. No protection. 

Lacrosse - 20 players on field making contact. Mouths are not covered. 

Basketball - 10 players on court making contact. No protection. 

Wrestling - 2 people on mat. No protection. 

Don’t know about you guys, but the rest of those sports seem a lot more dangerous for spread than wrestling. We will learn a lot based on how football is handled. 

The practice room!

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3 hours ago, Cooch1 said:

The practice room!

Who wrestles 20-40 different people in the practice room? Even then, high school football teams have 50-80 kids hitting each other all practice. I understand what you are getting at, but all of these other sports are exponentially worse for spread. 

We’ve already seen what can happen in basketball. 

Edited by SamStall365247

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55 minutes ago, SamStall365247 said:

Who wrestles 20-40 different people in the practice room? Even then, high school football teams have 50-80 kids hitting each other all practice. I understand what you are getting at, but all of these other sports are exponentially worse for spread. 

We’ve already seen what can happen in basketball. 

What makes you think 50-80 kids all hit every other one there? Mostly linemen holding and hitting other linemen And they are better covered. Not much skin to skin. You end up wrestling through others sweat puddles. 

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17 hours ago, gimpeltf said:

What makes you think 50-80 kids all hit every other one there? Mostly linemen holding and hitting other linemen And they are better covered. Not much skin to skin. You end up wrestling through others sweat puddles. 

Five years of coaching high school football - 1st team, 2nd team, and scout are all rotating in on each other on each side of the ball, and then you have special teams. Any player on the field can make contact with any other player. This is why teams have huge rosters despite only 11 starters on each side. It takes a lot of bodies to run practice.

Face masks are cages. They do not block the transfer of fluids (breathing hard, spitting, etc.). Shields can be used to cover your eyes, but not mouths. It would be impossible to play with a shield that covers your mouth.

Any sport where athletes make contact is a risk. From there it is all math. The more individuals someone is exposed to in close quarters, the greater the risk. I’m no epidemiologist, but it seems pretty logical that other sports, requiring a great number of athletes, are much more dangerous when trying to contain a pandemic. 

With that said, I do think changes to next season are valid, but that most other sports will see changes as well, not just us. 

Edited by SamStall365247

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3 hours ago, SamStall365247 said:

Five years of coaching high school football - 1st team, 2nd team, and scout are all rotating in on each other on each side of the ball, and then you have special teams. Any player on the field can make contact with any other player. This is why teams have huge rosters despite only 11 starters on each side. It takes a lot of bodies to run practice.

Face masks are cages. They do not block the transfer of fluids (breathing hard, spitting, etc.). Shields can be used to cover your eyes, but not mouths. It would be impossible to play with a shield that covers your mouth.

Any sport where athletes make contact is a risk. From there it is all math. The more individuals someone is exposed to in close quarters, the greater the risk. I’m no epidemiologist, but it seems pretty logical that other sports, requiring a great number of athletes, are much more dangerous when trying to contain a pandemic. 

With that said, I do think changes to next season are valid, but that most other sports will see changes as well, not just us. 

You said CAN make contact with not DOES make contact with. Sure it's a risk, I didn't deny that. It's just not as much direct contact as wrestling. Why would it be impossible to build an appropriate mask? Do you really think the NFL and NHL are going to give up because you said it's impossible?

Plus on the mask thing- I think time of contact is important and more so contact with areas of the face. What I'm hearing is that having the fluid touch the eyes and nose and mouth are the worst things that can happen. Not an easy thing to do with even a current design of mask/helmet. This type of contact would be much easier in wrestling under current circumstances.

Edited by gimpeltf

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The other sport that I follow semi-religiously is pro cycling. The UCI (professional cycling's organizing body) just released their new calendar for the abbreviated 2020 season.

For those of you unfamiliar with professional cycling, these races are generally 5-7 hours long, with 160+ starters in close proximity, the staff for each team in 2 or 3 cars in the chase caravan behind, additional support staff at the start and then the finish. Then, you have all of the fans on the sides of the road, as you pass through 100-150 miles of countryside, or, potentially, multiple countries. On some of the more famous climbs, or climbs to finish decisive stages of a multi-day race, you can have a six digit number of people out on the roadside.

I just don't see how it's going to happen without being a complete disaster. 

 

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