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I agree that there will likely be some sort of Summer Olympics next year, even if there's a covid wave 2 in the winter. It just won't look anything like prior games -- competition may happen with a very limited or no live audience, and maybe not everyone will participate until countries like the US, Brazil, India, etc. get their case count in order. The format of the Olympics will obviously depend on testing, vaccination, and cases/deaths but also by media contracts, staffing, and venue readiness. I also think the results may also be asterisked in the minds of fans due to the unusual circumstances and protocol.

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29 minutes ago, LJB said:

99%

 

8 minutes ago, pamela said:

I agree that there will likely be some sort of Summer Olympics next year, even if there's a covid wave 2 in the winter. It just won't look anything like prior games -- competition may happen with a very limited or no live audience, and maybe not everyone will participate until countries like the US, Brazil, India, etc. get their case count in order. The format of the Olympics will obviously depend on testing, vaccination, and cases/deaths but also by media contracts, staffing, and venue readiness. I also think the results may also be asterisked in the minds of fans due to the unusual circumstances and protocol.

I hope you are both right.  

My opinion is that the Olympics will happen only if there is an effective vaccine by April or May.  

They just had a tennis tournament in Serbia, and three of the players, including a super star got Covid

https://www.cbsnews.com/video/tennis-players-test-positive-for-coronavirus-after-playing-in-serbia-tournament/

 

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1 hour ago, irani said:

 

I hope you are both right.  

My opinion is that the Olympics will happen only if there is an effective vaccine by April or May.  

They just had a tennis tournament in Serbia, and three of the players, including a super star got Covid

https://www.cbsnews.com/video/tennis-players-test-positive-for-coronavirus-after-playing-in-serbia-tournament/

 

The ironic part is that Djokavic is a staunch anti-vaxxer

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the odds of no 2021 Olympics are definitely greater than zero. don't know what I would put the approximate odds at. I vaccine by spring 2021 would of course make it a near certainty. considering how low risk it appears young healthy people are to succumbing to covid, perhaps a way to host the games involves sequestration of athletes in the olympic village, no fans, and limited media. not endorsing any course of action formally tho, will leave that to the health experts. 

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2 hours ago, Jaroslav Hasek said:

the odds of no 2021 Olympics are definitely greater than zero. don't know what I would put the approximate odds at. I vaccine by spring 2021 would of course make it a near certainty. considering how low risk it appears young healthy people are to succumbing to covid, perhaps a way to host the games involves sequestration of athletes in the olympic village, no fans, and limited media. not endorsing any course of action formally tho, will leave that to the health experts. 

I think the recent infection by the tennis players are a huge warning shot.  Tennis is a no contact, outdoor sport.  I just can't imagine the IOC agreeing to put so many athletes at risk if the pandemis is still rampent, and if there is no vaccine.

I read recently that the virus does serious and permanent damage to the organs and lungs of those who survive it, so that may be a good reason for young athletes not to take risks.

Don't get me wrong, I hope I am wrong.   I hope a vaccine comes out in a few months and this whole thread dies.

 

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6 hours ago, bnwtwg said:

The ironic part is that Djokavic is a staunch anti-vaxxer

Well now he doesn't need to get vaccinated.  

 

Add me to the list of people who thinks a vaccine will be available by then and the games will go on as scheduled in 2021.  

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I think we all agree, if there is a vaccine, the olympics  take place as scheduled
 

The key questions are

  1. will there be a vaccine in time?
  2. If not, will the Olympic s take place?

 

my answers are

  1. 50% chance
  2. 0% chance
Edited by irani

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https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/06/24/881704736/all-you-wanted-to-know-about-coronavirus-vaccine-science-but-were-afraid-to-ask

Normally, it can take a decade or more to develop, test and license a new vaccine, but the coronavirus pandemic is likely to speed up that process considerably because developers are doing things in parallel that they would usually do in sequence. Even before a vaccine candidate has been shown to work, companies are scaling up their manufacturing capacity with the intention of making hundreds of millions of doses of something that may never be useful. About a dozen vaccines are already being tested in humans, and proof that a particular vaccine works — or doesn't — may be available as soon as the end of this year.

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Possibly the vaccine will be ready within a year. But it will take another year to make it available to the entire population. The first doses will go to the population of risks, health and emergency services.

The celebration of the Olympics will depend on the speed of the vaccine in reaching the population and the covid outbreaks that occur in autumn - winter.

I see the celebration of the Olympics complicated next year but everything is possible, it will depend on the strength of the virus. Here in Europe we have already passed the worst of the epidemic but people are very neglected, they do not wear masks and they do not maintain social distance. So a new wave of infection is quite possible. China and Germany are two recent examples

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3 hours ago, Spanish said:

Possibly the vaccine will be ready within a year. But it will take another year to make it available to the entire population. The first doses will go to the population of risks, health and emergency services.

The celebration of the Olympics will depend on the speed of the vaccine in reaching the population and the covid outbreaks that occur in autumn - winter.

I see the celebration of the Olympics complicated next year but everything is possible, it will depend on the strength of the virus. Here in Europe we have already passed the worst of the epidemic but people are very neglected, they do not wear masks and they do not maintain social distance. So a new wave of infection is quite possible. China and Germany are two recent examples

Why are you making things up with this one year claim? The US is already ramping up production of multiple vaccine candidates prior to getting efficacy data so that there will be immediate distribution.  Yes, vaccinating the entire world will not be immediate, but the US, Japan, and Europe will get the vaccine very quickly upon approval. Then you just need to vaccinate the Olympic athletes and officials, which can be organized by the IOC. 

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22 minutes ago, Billyhoyle said:

Why are you making things up with this one year claim? 

you can just throw him on top of the pile of made up stuff about the boogie bug...

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57 minutes ago, Billyhoyle said:

¿Por qué estás inventando este reclamo de un año? Estados Unidos ya está aumentando la producción de múltiples vacunas candidatas antes de obtener los datos de eficacia para que haya una distribución inmediata. Sí, vacunar al mundo entero no será inmediato, pero EE. UU., Japón y Europa recibirán la vacuna muy rápidamente una vez aprobada. Entonces solo necesita vacunar a los atletas y oficiales olímpicos, que pueden ser organizados por el COI. 

Why am I talking about a year? Because it is the minimum period to know the effectiveness of a vaccine. If you want to implement a vaccine in as short a term as 6 months, you can only have the data that occurred in that period of time. You will be able to know if antibodies still remain in the body of the vaccinated person, but you will not be able to know if those antibodies last after 8, 10 or 12 months have passed. He is going fast with the vaccine but the first real trials date back to April. If a vaccine is taken in October or November, not enough time will have passed to know the real efficacy of a vaccine in a period of one year. And, of course, that without counting on the virus to mutate (as happens with the flu), then the vaccine would no longer be of any use and would have to be modified.

 

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6 hours ago, Spanish said:

Possibly the vaccine will be ready within a year. But it will take another year to make it available to the entire population. The first doses will go to the population of risks, health and emergency services.

The celebration of the Olympics will depend on the speed of the vaccine in reaching the population and the covid outbreaks that occur in autumn - winter.

I see the celebration of the Olympics complicated next year but everything is possible, it will depend on the strength of the virus. Here in Europe we have already passed the worst of the epidemic but people are very neglected, they do not wear masks and they do not maintain social distance. So a new wave of infection is quite possible. China and Germany are two recent examples

That's how long medicines would normally take to get to market, but we're already in human clinicals for several possible c19 vaccines, and that's unheard of (and yes, with its own risks). I also heard a blurb that these pharma companies are also forging partnerships currently to create a manufacturing and distribution infrastructure that would allow a treatment to scale immediately to market. There's such wide variability in what the vaccine could be, from an mRNA which would need to stay stable and potent, to punching pills which would require a whole different type of handling, to staffing at POS if it's an injection or inhalant. It's kind of mind-blowing.

Anyway, the 95%/0% odds that @Billyhoyle posted is what I hope happens, but then again we live in a world where ppl ditched their masks and social distancing and safety protocol and just decided that they're over the Coronavirus, so I'm not super optimistic about the 0% Olympics w/o vaxx.

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4 hours ago, Spanish said:

Why am I talking about a year? Because it is the minimum period to know the effectiveness of a vaccine. If you want to implement a vaccine in as short a term as 6 months, you can only have the data that occurred in that period of time. You will be able to know if antibodies still remain in the body of the vaccinated person, but you will not be able to know if those antibodies last after 8, 10 or 12 months have passed. He is going fast with the vaccine but the first real trials date back to April. If a vaccine is taken in October or November, not enough time will have passed to know the real efficacy of a vaccine in a period of one year. And, of course, that without counting on the virus to mutate (as happens with the flu), then the vaccine would no longer be of any use and would have to be modified.

 

Ok, well this is not a typical situation. Phase 1 results have already been released and there is enrollment for combined phase2/3.  Results are expected around Thanksgiving with distribution possible as early as December. And that's just one vaccine. Others are presently in phase 1 or about to be enter phase 1 and are being pushed forward with equal effort. 

In terms of how long antibodies last, I don't think there will be a need to wait for such an exhaustive analysis prior to distribution.   Even if a single shot does not lead to long lasting immunity, one or two booster shots will do the trick.  It should be relatively straightforward to analyze whether there are memory B/T and plasma cells from the vaccine after this 6 month phase 3 trial, which will give an indication on whether booster shots are needed.

And lastly, even a moderately effective vaccine could do the trick in creating enough herd/partial immunity so that the virus is barely able to spread (even if there are some infections that intermittently pop up over the next couple years).  

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On 6/24/2020 at 4:05 PM, LJB said:

Come on guys...

the vaccine doesn’t need to work against the boogie bug as long as the real agenda gets achieved...

Please tell me you are joking

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I think COVID-19 is very serious, but I’d say there’s a 75% chance the Olympics happen next year even without a vaccine.  If the UFC, National Cornhole League, and Korean Baseball can happen now, I think the Olympics can happen in a year.  It might just be with no fans and 14+ day quarantines before and after.

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On 6/23/2020 at 3:47 PM, irani said:

 

I hope you are both right.  

My opinion is that the Olympics will happen only if there is an effective vaccine by April or May.  

They just had a tennis tournament in Serbia, and three of the players, including a super star got Covid

https://www.cbsnews.com/video/tennis-players-test-positive-for-coronavirus-after-playing-in-serbia-tournament/

 

Those players were apparently filmed dancing in a nightclub.  I think it’s more likely they got it (or spread it) there than while playing tennis.   

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/06/27/tennis/novak-djokovic-adria-tour-backlash-spt-intl/index.html

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3 hours ago, 1032004 said:

Those players were apparently filmed dancing in a nightclub.  I think it’s more likely they got it (or spread it) there than while playing tennis.   

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/06/27/tennis/novak-djokovic-adria-tour-backlash-spt-intl/index.html

That is good to know, thanks for sharing.  Is just did not make sense that people would get sick playing tennis outdoors

However, there is the matter of the MLB players and staff getting sick https://mlb.nbcsports.com/2020/06/15/several-mlb-players-staff-test-positive-for-covid-19/

Edited by irani

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9 hours ago, 1032004 said:

Those players were apparently filmed dancing in a nightclub.  I think it’s more likely they got it (or spread it) there than while playing tennis.   

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/06/27/tennis/novak-djokovic-adria-tour-backlash-spt-intl/index.html

Yep, Apple and oranges. That tournament practiced ZERO social distancing in any form or kind. They did zero testing. The stands were packed with no one wearing masks and the players were partying at night clubs afterwards not to mention playing soccer and basketball together. It's a terrible representation of how sports can and should be played during the pandemic. Several tennis tournaments have taken place recently with excellent safety protocols.

I remember watching that tennis tournament on TV and thinking oh ok this tournament must have taken case before the pandemic. I was utterly shocked when I found out it wasn't. 

Edited by DocBZ

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I'd say it's a 50/50 shot.

1.) PRO: by this time next year, I predict COVID-19 will be a thing of the past.  We will have an effective treatment or vaccine and we will have learned to manage things more effectively.

2.) CON: by this time next year, we will have gone through the remainder of 2020.  Who knows what will have occurred by then.  You know, asteroid collisions, supervolcano eruptions, California 10.0 earthquake and tsunamis, alien invasion.  Anything is possible at this point.

 

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