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2 hours ago, dman115 said:

I am on board with the spirit of this post, but have questions about some of the content.  I wonder what you mean by "until the virus is defeated"?  Until it is no longer here?  Until we have a vaccine?  Until the mortality rate is lower than 0.4?  And there is one thing I very much disagree with it, and quite frankly Jaroslav you almost completely lost me in your post by saying "at bare minimum, inconveniences and alterations...".  I am sorry but losing businesses, mental health issues, substance abuse, etc. are not "inconveniences" or "alterations" from "normal"...these are extremely life altering things for people.

I do have a questions I have asked on these boards several times and no one seems to be able to answer, or comment on really...how many deaths (if counted correctly) would the flu produce if there wasn't a vaccine?  Billy may know this.  I googled and couldn't find anything that I could make sense of.

All we have to do is wear masks and avoid indoor bars/restaurants/crowds in general (like beaches) for the next 6 months. That’s literally all it’s going to take from us. Is that too much to ask? South Korea and Germany seem ok with it.  Most businesses will be fine and we can then just subsidize the businesses impacted over this time to prevent economic fallout. The actual heavy lifting of stopping the virus is being done by the people doing contact tracing/running sequencing assays and the scientists developing treatments/vaccines. 
 

But maybe 6 months of wearing a mask is asking too much from us and we should let the virus run its natural course and kill 1-2 million people. 

Edited by Billyhoyle

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16 minutes ago, Billyhoyle said:

All we have to do is wear masks and avoid indoor bars/restaurants/crowds in general (like beaches) for the next 6 months. That’s literally all it’s going to take from us. Is that too much to ask? South Korea and Germany seem ok with it.  Most businesses will be fine and we can then just subsidize the businesses impacted over this time to prevent economic fallout. The actual heavy lifting of stopping the virus is being done by the people doing contact tracing/running sequencing assays and the scientists developing treatments/vaccines. 
 

But maybe 6 months of wearing a mask is asking too much from us and we should let the virus run its natural course and kill 1-2 million people. 

ugh...

a child's take on the economic impact of the boogie bug...

do you have any real idea of how 3 months of shutting down travel in this country has effected the oil and gas industry?

nothing for the next 2 years... absolutely nothing...

and your death toll is a made up number as well... 

but, i know how disappointed you have been that the boogie bug turned out to be nothing... 

 

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Let me try to bring this thead back to the original questions:

 

  • On the good news, there have been some very promising developments in the discovery of a few vaccines
  • On the bad news, I am not confident that the vaccines will be availabe for mass distribution in time for the olympics.

My assumption is that the vaccine must be available for mass usage 3-4 months before the olympics.  It's going to be very tight.  I will give the olympics pf 2021 a 40% chance of happening as scheduled

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5 hours ago, LJB said:

ugh...

a child's take on the economic impact of the boogie bug...

do you have any real idea of how 3 months of shutting down travel in this country has effected the oil and gas industry?

nothing for the next 2 years... absolutely nothing...

and your death toll is a made up number as well... 

 

Is it?  

Even using the 0.04 death rate that you provided:

US population 330,000,000

~70% infection rate to reach herd immunity x 0.04% death rate = 924,000 deaths

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5 minutes ago, 1032004 said:

Is it?  

Even using the 0.04 death rate that you provided:

US population 330,000,000

~70% infection rate to reach herd immunity x 0.04% death rate = 924,000 deaths

that mortality rate will continue to plummet...

and there is a big difference between 924k and 2 million...

either way, it isn't that bad...

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1 hour ago, LJB said:

that mortality rate will continue to plummet...

and there is a big difference between 924k and 2 million...

either way, it isn't that bad...

It’s pretty close to 1 million.  And that’s using a death rate that’s over 10x lower than what even most conservative estimates are saying, and not counting people getting it more than once (which it seems like is possible), and not counting if it takes higher than 70% to reach herd immunity, and not counting what would happen when more hospitals got overwhelmed.

So yeah, I think that’s a pretty reasonable if not conservative estimate if no preventive measures were put in place.

Edited by 1032004

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Moderna announced that its back on track to start phase 3 clinicals of its mRNA c19 vax this month. 30k participant enrollment expected, mostly US frontline healthcare workers and congregate living facility residents, who have a higher risk exposure profile. The goal is to obtain approval around Q3; meanwhile they are already putting the mfg & distribution infrastructure in place with the goal of 300mil vax doses by early 2021. It's pretty wild to see all this moving at this pace, and in parallel.

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1 hour ago, pamela said:

Moderna announced that its back on track to start phase 3 clinicals of its mRNA c19 vax this month. 30k participant enrollment expected, mostly US frontline healthcare workers and congregate living facility residents, who have a higher risk exposure profile. The goal is to obtain approval around Q3; meanwhile they are already putting the mfg & distribution infrastructure in place with the goal of 300mil vax doses by early 2021. It's pretty wild to see all this moving at this pace, and in parallel.

The only comparison I can think of to the way the government is speeding up the vaccine/therapeutic process is the Manhattan Project. I think years from now people will look back at the speed with which this vaccine was developed/distributed (looking like 9 to 12 months at this point from beginning operation warpspeed in a world where new vaccines  normally take 7 to 10 years) much like the speed with which the first atomic bomb was developed. In many ways, the US is doing a huge service for the entire world (subsidizing R&D and manufacturing costs for 5 companies simultaneously) with these investments and shows what the country is at its best. And that doesn’t even factor in that the technology behind moderna/biontech was actually originally funded years ago through a DARPA project. 

Edited by Billyhoyle

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18 hours ago, irani said:

Let me try to bring this thead back to the original questions:

 

  • On the good news, there have been some very promising developments in the discovery of a few vaccines
  • On the bad news, I am not confident that the vaccines will be availabe for mass distribution in time for the olympics.

My assumption is that the vaccine must be available for mass usage 3-4 months before the olympics.  It's going to be very tight.  I will give the olympics pf 2021 a 40% chance of happening as scheduled

Well, it was a valiant effort Irani

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18 hours ago, Billyhoyle said:

The only comparison I can think of to the way the government is speeding up the vaccine/therapeutic process is the Manhattan Project. I think years from now people will look back at the speed with which this vaccine was developed/distributed (looking like 9 to 12 months at this point from beginning operation warpspeed in a world where new vaccines  normally take 7 to 10 years) much like the speed with which the first atomic bomb was developed. In many ways, the US is doing a huge service for the entire world (subsidizing R&D and manufacturing costs for 5 companies simultaneously) with these investments and shows what the country is at its best. And that doesn’t even factor in that the technology behind moderna/biontech was actually originally funded years ago through a DARPA project. 

As awful as war is, it sure brings about great medical technology. Not even looking back to all the great advances historically, but just in the last twenty years, we have had amazing prosthetics, the method that may be used for the covid vaccine, etc.

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On 7/9/2020 at 7:54 PM, Billyhoyle said:

The only comparison I can think of to the way the government is speeding up the vaccine/therapeutic process is the Manhattan Project. I think years from now people will look back at the speed with which this vaccine was developed/distributed (looking like 9 to 12 months at this point from beginning operation warpspeed in a world where new vaccines  normally take 7 to 10 years) much like the speed with which the first atomic bomb was developed. In many ways, the US is doing a huge service for the entire world (subsidizing R&D and manufacturing costs for 5 companies simultaneously) with these investments and shows what the country is at its best. And that doesn’t even factor in that the technology behind moderna/biontech was actually originally funded years ago through a DARPA project. 

This could wind up being way worse than thalidomide.  Moderna is a start up funded because of political desperation has never produced a product with FDA approval. What could go wrong? 

This could be a scam playing trump like a fiddle.  Have they even published full results of their trials?

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17 minutes ago, Plasmodium said:

This could wind up being way worse than thalidomide.  Moderna is a start up funded because of political desperation has never produced a product with FDA approval. What could go wrong? 

This could be a scam playing trump like a fiddle.  Have they even published full results of their trials?

They are going through a double blind randomized clinical trial-your comparison to thalidomide is an absolute joke. Phase 1 just ended so you don’t need to be alarmed that phase 1 isn’t published yet. Phase 3 will test for safety and efficacy in tens of thousands of people. 
 

Also they aren’t funded out of political desperation-mRNA vaccines are a highly promising new vaccine technology and were even before coronavirus. Whether they work will be determined by the clinical trial, but you clearly spout off ridiculous claims despite having no idea what you’re talking about. 

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15 minutes ago, Billyhoyle said:

They are going through a double blind randomized clinical trial-your comparison to thalidomide is an absolute joke. Phase 1 just ended so you don’t need to be alarmed that phase 1 isn’t published yet. Phase 3 will test for safety and efficacy in tens of thousands of people. 
 

Also they aren’t funded out of political desperation-mRNA vaccines are a highly promising new vaccine technology and were even before coronavirus. Whether they work will be determined by the clinical trial, but you clearly spout off ridiculous claims despite having no idea what you’re talking about. 

Really?  Ridiculous?  Pouring multiple billions of dollars into an industry literally overnight and then changing well established laws and regulations to enable product usage is desperate. We can argue whether it is political or not.  Trump is making the decisions, so it is political.  Dollars to doughnuts he ran  shark tank like meetings to spend those billions on the companies with the shiniest elevator pitch.  Moderna has received at least half a billion

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7 hours ago, Plasmodium said:

Really?  Ridiculous?  Pouring multiple billions of dollars into an industry literally overnight and then changing well established laws and regulations to enable product usage is desperate. We can argue whether it is political or not.  Trump is making the decisions, so it is political.  Dollars to doughnuts he ran  shark tank like meetings to spend those billions on the companies with the shiniest elevator pitch.  Moderna has received at least half a billion

 They are funding the main players for covid 19 vaccine/therapeutic development so that they produce the vaccine/treatments in bulk prior to knowing clinical results. The reason is to eliminate the lag time between clinical development and mass production. It is absolutely not a waste of money-they are funding multiple different strategies and whichever one works the best (Or works first) will be the one that is used. My guess is that multiple strategies will be both safe and effective. These aren’t friends of trump-they are the best scientists in the world. 
 

None of these strategies use live virus or replicative vectors-meaning they are likely more safe than traditional attenuated virus vaccines. And you seem to take issue with moderna in particular for some reason that I don’t understand-mRNA vaccine technology is potentially revolutionary and we are about to find out whether it works in the next 6 months (results from the biontech trial indicate 24/24 patients developed neutralizing antibodies). 

Edited by Billyhoyle

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This is why I am skeptical of moderna. They were a struggling business, maybe even failing, and now have leveraged almost 2 billion from covid 19.  Without actual peer reviewed proof of anything that I can find. .  https://www.forbes.com/sites/alexandrasternlicht/2020/05/19/scientists-raise-questions-about-moderna-vaccine-in-market-shaking-report/#33e093b02136

 

Introducing untested genetic material into people on a massive scale has potential for disaster of epic proportions. That is why we have rules.

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Having worked in drug development for 11 years in a previous career, Billy sure sounds like he knows what he is talking about.  And from what I have read it doesn't sound like they are "skipping" critical steps in the development process.  Now if they skipped key steps in the clinical trials process...i.e., didn't perform Phase 3 trials, etc. than I would have concern...however, if some of the steps built into the development process surely can be "sped-up" let's do it.  The only potential I can see being an issue is if there are any long term effects of repeated exposure to the new vaccine, as that obviously can't be studied like "normal"; however, I think most would be okay given the intended dosing regiment for vaccines. And if this new vaccine didn't show any adverse toxicity or present any severe side effects, which would have been uncovered in Phase 1 trials (vaccine given to small population of "healthy" volunteers), which it must not have given they are moving to Phase 3 trial (vaccine given to a larger population with COVID), than I am cool with it. 

 

And I guess I don't get caught up in if the drug company should or shouldn't have been chosen for this.  I am sure there are a lot of companies receiving federal funding in the race for a vaccine.  Shouldn't we be happy we live in a country where we have enough money to do that??

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36 minutes ago, Plasmodium said:

This is why I am skeptical of moderna. They were a struggling business, maybe even failing, and now have leveraged almost 2 billion from covid 19.  Without actual peer reviewed proof of anything that I can find. .  https://www.forbes.com/sites/alexandrasternlicht/2020/05/19/scientists-raise-questions-about-moderna-vaccine-in-market-shaking-report/#33e093b02136

 

Introducing untested genetic material into people on a massive scale has potential for disaster of epic proportions. That is why we have rules.

Moderna was absolutely not a struggling business.  They had just recently IPOed and have been considered the #1 player in mRNA vaccine technology, with biontech considered a close 2nd. If it works, this technology will be revolutionary due to the ease and speed with which vaccines can be developed in the future.  The technology that BioNtech and Moderna are using is almost identical.  I believe the reasons that Moderna has yet to publish their phase 1 data has to do with logistics in terms of journal submission, while BioNtech was able to just post their paper as a preprint.  We are really getting into the weeds here, but it takes time for papers to get published in journals-that doesn't mean that the result from the phase 1 trial isn't extremely promising.  You say there are rules, and those rules are the clinical trial process.  They are still conducting a phase 3 trial on tens of thousands of people.  If the vaccine causes severe side effects, we will see it then.

I guess you are phrasing their vaccine as, "introducing untested genetic material" as a way to make it sound scary?? As I already pointed out, the vaccine is being tested in a phase 3 study. The bottom line is that the only genetic material that is introduced codes a single surface protein from the virus-it doesn't actually produce any intact viral particles. The RNA is not integrated into the genome because it is mRNA. Attenuated virus vaccines, which have been used for hundreds of years, also introduce genetic material-except they introduce an entire virus.  Are you just against all vaccines?  If so, know that the many different less harmful strains of coronavirus (and every other virus)that we are exposed to in our lifetimes also introduce us to foreign genetic material.

If you are new to this type of stuff, I understand why you may be a bit confused/worried.  But we will get our answers from the results of the numerous phase 3 trials that are ongoing/soon to start.  As I have said for months now, I am very optimistic about the many different approaches currently under investigation. 

Edited by Billyhoyle

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14 minutes ago, Billyhoyle said:

Moderna was absolutely not a struggling business.  They had just recently IPOed and have been considered the #1 player in mRNA vaccine technology, with biontech considered a close 2nd. If it works, this technology will be revolutionary due to the ease and speed with which vaccines can be developed in the future.  The technology that BioNtech and Moderna are using is almost identical.  I believe the reasons that Moderna has yet to publish their phase 1 data has to do with logistics in terms of journal submission, while BioNtech was able to just post their paper as a preprint.  We are really getting into the weeds here, but it takes time for papers to get published in journals-that doesn't mean that the result from the phase 1 trial isn't extremely promising.  You say there are rules, and those rules are the clinical trial process.  They are still conducting a phase 3 trial on tens of thousands of people.  If the vaccine causes severe side effects, we will see it then.

I guess you are phrasing their vaccine as, "introducing untested genetic material" as a way to make it sound scary?? As I already pointed out, the vaccine is being tested in a phase 3 study. The bottom line is that the only genetic material that is introduced codes a single surface protein from the virus-it doesn't actually produce any intact viral particles. The RNA is not integrated into the genome because it is mRNA. Attenuated virus vaccines, which have been used for hundreds of years, also introduce genetic material-except they introduce an entire virus.  Are you just against all vaccines?  If so, know that the many different less harmful strains of coronavirus (and every other virus)that we are exposed to in our lifetimes also introduce us to foreign genetic material.

If you are new to this type of stuff, I understand why you may be a bit confused/worried.  But we will get our answers from the results of the numerous phase 3 trials that are ongoing/soon to start.  As I have said for months now, I am very optimistic about the many different approaches currently under investigation. 

They went from 160 million in 2018 to 60 in 2019.  Struggling is the correct word.  It sounds scary because it is scary.  I am 100% for vaccines.  I am against entire societies being guinea pigs for untested cash cows in an election year.

Which specific vaccines in widespread use are based on mrna technology? 

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1 hour ago, Plasmodium said:

They went from 160 million in 2018 to 60 in 2019.  Struggling is the correct word.  It sounds scary because it is scary.  I am 100% for vaccines.  I am against entire societies being guinea pigs for untested cash cows in an election year.

Which specific vaccines in widespread use are based on mrna technology? 

You are really far off with your information-not sure where you get it. The reason I’m still responding is because I know you’re not a troll like some others in this thread so I think I may be able to inform you. Moderna was worth over 6 billion upon their initial ipo. At their low they were worth about 3 to 4 billion. Now they are worth 26 billion. These types of fluctuations happen in biotech and at no point was moderna ever struggling. I don’t know what they should be worth in terms of market cap, but I do know their science is very sound.
 

And no vaccine has yet to use mRNA technology. But before Genentech/Amgen nobody had used recombinant proteins or monoclonal antibodies as therapeutics.  That’s why this is called biotechnology-these companies develop new technology and then run a clinical trial to determine if it works. The scientific concept behind mRNA vaccines is outstanding and all preclinical and clinical data to date has been highly promising. It’s not guaranteed to work, but that’s why the government is funding innovio and J&J, as they each have their own unique approach. And for the last time I’m not saying there should be widespread use of an untested vaccine-they are literally running the trials right now. What is so confusing about that?

Edited by Billyhoyle

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1 hour ago, Plasmodium said:

They went from 160 million in 2018 to 60 in 2019.  Struggling is the correct word.  It sounds scary because it is scary.  I am 100% for vaccines.  I am against entire societies being guinea pigs for untested cash cows in an election year.

Which specific vaccines in widespread use are based on mrna technology? 

 

23 minutes ago, Billyhoyle said:

You are really far off with your information-not sure where you get it. The reason I’m still responding is because I know you’re not a troll like some others in this thread so I think I may be able to inform you. Moderna was worth over 6 billion upon their initial ipo. At their low they were worth about 3 to 4 billion. Now they are worth 26 billion. These types of fluctuations happen in biotech and at no point was moderna ever struggling. I don’t know what they should be worth in terms of market cap, but I do know their science is very sound.

I believe his numbers are revenue figures for the last couple of years not company worth. I had googled and saw something similar to what he quoted.

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24 minutes ago, Billyhoyle said:

You are really far off with your information-not sure where you get it. The reason I’m still responding is because I know you’re not a troll like some others in this thread so I think I may be able to inform you. Moderna was worth over 6 billion upon their initial ipo. At their low they were worth about 3 to 4 billion. Now they are worth 26 billion. These types of fluctuations happen in biotech and at no point was moderna ever struggling. I don’t know what they should be worth in terms of market cap, but I do know their science is very sound.
 

And no vaccine has yet to use mRNA technology. But before Genentech/Amgen nobody had used recombinant proteins or monoclonal antibodies as therapeutics.  That’s why this is called biotechnology-these companies develop new technology and then run a clinical trial to determine if it works. The scientific concept behind mRNA vaccines is outstanding and all preclinical and clinical data to date has been highly promising. It’s not guaranteed to work, but that’s why the government is funding innovio and J&J, as they each have their own unique approach. And for the last time I’m not saying there should be widespread use of an untested vaccine-they are literally running the trials right now. What is so confusing about that?

I am not far off.  A 26 billion company(this year) that had only 60M in revenue last year - less than half of the previous year.  (https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/mrna/financials)  They were struggling.  The biotech industry goes up and down, of course.   It also has companies that fold, companies that struggle, technology that doesn't pan out, companies that exceed beyond wildest expectation and outright fraud.  Covid19 has been very, very good for them.  Too good?

I worry it will be the ones with billion stakes and Trump deciding whether this vaccine, or a similar one, is approved for use.  It is a legitimate concern.

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On 7/13/2020 at 8:41 AM, Plasmodium said:

I am not far off.  A 26 billion company(this year) that had only 60M in revenue last year - less than half of the previous year.  (https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/mrna/financials)  They were struggling.  The biotech industry goes up and down, of course.   It also has companies that fold, companies that struggle, technology that doesn't pan out, companies that exceed beyond wildest expectation and outright fraud.  Covid19 has been very, very good for them.  Too good?

I worry it will be the ones with billion stakes and Trump deciding whether this vaccine, or a similar one, is approved for use.  It is a legitimate concern.

This is not how earnings work for biotech companies that have yet to launch their first product.  You expect these companies to bleed money until their first major product is approved-and any earnings are most likely from payouts for reaching milestones in collaborations.

 

Anyway, Moderna released their data.  As I predicted, it is very similar to BioNtech.  Minor fevers appear to be the main side effect in the dose they are moving forward on with neutralizing mAbs observed in every patient.  Very promising, let's hope for the best in the Phase 3 trial. 

https://www.statnews.com/2020/07/14/moderna-covid19-vaccine-first-data-show-spurs-immune-response/

Every day i'm more optimistic about the 2021 olympics happening on schedule...2021 NCAA season is still up in the air though-I think a second semester season is possible.

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3 hours ago, Billyhoyle said:

This is not how earnings work for biotech companies that have yet to launch their first product.  You expect these companies to bleed money until their first major product is approved-and any earnings are most likely from payouts for reaching milestones in collaborations.

 

Anyway, Moderna released their data.  As I predicted, it is very similar to BioNtech.  Minor fevers appear to be the main side effect in the dose they are moving forward on with neutralizing mAbs observed in every patient.  Very promising, let's hope for the best in the Phase 3 trial. 

https://www.statnews.com/2020/07/14/moderna-covid19-vaccine-first-data-show-spurs-immune-response/

Every day i'm more optimistic about the 2021 olympics happening on schedule...2021 NCAA season is still up in the air though-I think a second semester season is possible.

Moderna is unique because it doesn't have a product.  Scratch that, now they do.  Perhaps they were lying dormant for the right virus to come about and they were accommodated.  Their Phase I results were announced - 2 months late - on the same day HHS began receiving covid19 related hospital data instead of the CDC.  That was confirmed by HHS  assistant secretary Michael Caputo - a Republican strategist by profession.

Look - I hope all of the vaporware being produced by Moderna is legit.  It would normalize the world, save hundreds of thousands of lives and lay a foundation for future pandemics.  I believe you said that earlier.  It looks like a gigantic scam to me.

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