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30 minutes ago, Plasmodium said:

Moderna is unique because it doesn't have a product.  Scratch that, now they do.  Perhaps they were lying dormant for the right virus to come about and they were accommodated.  Their Phase I results were announced - 2 months late - on the same day HHS began receiving covid19 related hospital data instead of the CDC.  That was confirmed by HHS  assistant secretary Michael Caputo - a Republican strategist by profession.

Look - I hope all of the vaporware being produced by Moderna is legit.  It would normalize the world, save hundreds of thousands of lives and lay a foundation for future pandemics.  I believe you said that earlier.  It looks like a gigantic scam to me.

I guess it’s easier to cling to conspiracy theories than admit you are wrong. It explains why so many still refuse to wear masks.  Running a phase 3 trial is not a scam, it’s called science.  

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5 hours ago, Billyhoyle said:

I guess it’s easier to cling to conspiracy theories than admit you are wrong. It explains why so many still refuse to wear masks.  Running a phase 3 trial is not a scam, it’s called science.  

I stand by everything I have said.  This is a desparate, dangerous situation on many levels  Corners have already been cut by a financially struggling company, approved by a politically desperate government and clamored for by a frightened public.  Pump the brakes and follow the science built over the last 6 decades.

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an Iranian coach just made an interesting comment.  This is just his opinion and it's not based on any facts, but I find his opinion interesting

He said, "The 2021 Olympics could be cancelled or postponded.  Alternatively, they go have the olympics as scheduled, but potentially cancel sports that presnet a higher risk of spreading the virus, such as wrestling"

I had not thought about this option, but it's not unreasonable.  I can see the go on with soccer, tennis, weightlifting and diving, but cancel wrestling and Judo.

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5 minutes ago, irani said:

an Iranian coach just made an interesting comment.  This is just his opinion and it's not based on any facts, but I find his opinion interesting

He said, "The 2021 Olympics could be cancelled or postponded.  Alternatively, they go have the olympics as scheduled, but potentially cancel sports that presnet a higher risk of spreading the virus, such as wrestling"

I had not thought about this option, but it's not unreasonable.  I can see the go on with soccer, tennis, weightlifting and diving, but cancel wrestling and Judo.

Yikes I hadn’t thought of that potential either, but it does seem like it could very much be an option on the table. I hope we don’t need to go trough another Save Olympic Wrestling Campaign. If I remember correctly, our “readmittance” to the games was as a provisional sport, not a core sport. (I could be wrong on that) 

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On 6/23/2020 at 11:37 PM, Billyhoyle said:

Well now he doesn't need to get vaccinated.  

 

Add me to the list of people who thinks a vaccine will be available by then and the games will go on as scheduled in 2021.  

Even without a vaccine, epidemiologists appear to understand how to put together a large, extended sporting event without issue (e.g. the UFC in Abu Dhabi and Formula in Europe).  Although I'll likely defer to your knowledge, my admittedly limited reading suggests if you're willing to spend the money required to address the logistical demands, and have the will to follow clearly burdensome procedures, hosting large sporting events is far from an impossibility.

I'm not suggesting it's wise to put on such events right now, or that they're necessarily safe, but F1 is about to put on their third GP in as many weeks without a positive test (and all ten teams travel with a large number of employees each), and the UFC seems to be faring similarly well in Abu Dhabi.

If the NBA, NFL, MLB and various soccer/football leagues are able to avoid disaster in the coming months, I suspect the Olympics will have an effective template to follow, with or without a vaccine.  That's obviously a lot of "ifs", but absent tragedy striking prior, I'll be surprised if the Olympics are simply cancelled.  I suspect they will look much different without a vaccine available, but I doubt it will be a dealbreaker.

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4 hours ago, irani said:

an Iranian coach just made an interesting comment.  This is just his opinion and it's not based on any facts, but I find his opinion interesting

He said, "The 2021 Olympics could be cancelled or postponded.  Alternatively, they go have the olympics as scheduled, but potentially cancel sports that presnet a higher risk of spreading the virus, such as wrestling"

I had not thought about this option, but it's not unreasonable.  I can see the go on with soccer, tennis, weightlifting and diving, but cancel wrestling and Judo.

I don't think so. it will be all or nothing. how many wrestlers will be in Tokyo ? less than 300. it's not hard to test 300 wrestlers several times before the Games to make sure they are all healthy

the problem is bigger than just two wrestlers having too much contact in 6 minutes . it's about traveling, hotels, spectators. can they test something like 15,000 athletes and officials coming from different countries to Japan for the Olympics ?

yes it's possible to have the Olympics even without the vaccine but that will be costly. we will see how far IOC and the Japanese government want to go to save the Olympics.

but hopefully there will be a vaccine soon

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Another option, go back to having summer and winter Olympics the same year... 2022, at least for one cycle. That gives everyone more time to figure things out. If next summer becomes safe for sports to have separate world championships they could do that in 2021. If they want to go back to alternating years for Olympics they can go back to 2024 and 2026. 

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Based on where we are today in October with the pandemic, and the high number of infections in the NFL, I predict the Tokyo Olympics will not take place as scheduled in 2021.  I just don't think there is enough time to get a vaccine approved, and fully distribued in time for the summer Olympics.

I hope I am wrong, and would be happy to be proven wrong.

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7 minutes ago, irani said:

Based on where we are today in October with the pandemic, and the high number of infections in the NFL, I predict the Tokyo Olympics will not take place as scheduled in 2021.  I just don't think there is enough time to get a vaccine approved, and fully distribued in time for the summer Olympics.

I hope I am wrong, and would be happy to be proven wrong.

The US, Europe, and Japan will all be vaccinated by summer 2021. I agree that it’s possible they cancel the Olympics because of the health of poorer countries that participate, but I think it’s unlikely. Will be easier to just provide vaccines for all those participants from countries where it won’t be available at the time.

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8 minutes ago, Billyhoyle said:

The US, Europe, and Japan will all be vaccinated by summer 2021. I agree that it’s possible they cancel the Olympics because of the health of poorer countries that participate, but I think it’s unlikely. Will be easier to just provide vaccines for all those participants from countries where it won’t be available at the time.

I hope you are right.  Best case scenario, vaccines get approved in December.

Most vaccines need to transported and kept in super freezing temepratures.  Not sure if any country has the infrastructure to distribtue the vaccines to the entire population.

In addition, they are hoping for vaccines that are 70% effective, so the vaccine is not a silver bullet.

Again, I hope you are right, time will tell.

 

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On 10/3/2020 at 5:00 PM, irani said:

Based on where we are today in October with the pandemic, and the high number of infections in the NFL, I predict the Tokyo Olympics will not take place as scheduled in 2021.  I just don't think there is enough time to get a vaccine approved, and fully distribued in time for the summer Olympics.

I hope I am wrong, and would be happy to be proven wrong.

I agree. The Olympics next summer seem unlikely. 

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12 hours ago, Chet Hanson said:

This could be almost as bad as the US boycott of the 1980 Olympics. Granted our athletes will be able to compete, but I doubt the orgies in the athlete village will be any good.

As long as the French attend, the origies should be all right

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Wouldn't it be better to delay another year and then have the Olympics WITH fans. This option would screw some athletes, but would be just as good for athletes as a group. Obviously it would be better for fans as a group.

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26 minutes ago, NJDan said:

Wouldn't it be better to delay another year and then have the Olympics WITH fans. This option would screw some athletes, but would be just as good for athletes as a group. Obviously it would be better for fans as a group.

As a whole for the olympics, fans and athletes, yes.

For older athletes, such as JB, this would be a disaster.

For injured athletes this would be a gift from heaven.

for younger athletes who are getting better day by day, such as Zare, this will be good.

 

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On 10/8/2020 at 2:23 PM, NJDan said:

Wouldn't it be better to delay another year and then have the Olympics WITH fans. This option would screw some athletes, but would be just as good for athletes as a group. Obviously it would be better for fans as a group.

I would rather have the Olympics on tv without any fans, than wait a year. No chance am going to be there in person either way.

Edited by Jim L

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8 hours ago, Jim L said:

I would rather have the Olympics on tv without any fans, than wait a year. No chance am going to be there in person either way. I

well, as long as you're safe. lol

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2 hours ago, ugarte said:

well, as long as you're safe. lol

Not sure what this means but to clarify my comment. I am not going to any Olympics any time soon, because of time and money. It is a life long dream of mine to attend an Olympic games, maybe one day I will make it, but in the meantime I will watch it on TV, hopefully next year

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1 hour ago, Jim L said:

Not sure what this means but to clarify my comment. I am not going to any Olympics any time soon, because of time and money. It is a life long dream of mine to attend an Olympic games, maybe one day I will make it, but in the meantime I will watch it on TV, hopefully next year

Mostly busting balls but the point I was making is that all of us want to watch - and the athletes all want to compete - but that is not what they should be basing the decision on. Not only the athletes would be at risk; the thousands of support staff (for the teams, the venues and the administration of the games) would be as well. And even beyond that, the Games could be a superspreader event where people arrive from (and return to) all corners of the globe. 

I want to see Dake win gold but I don't want it that badly.

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In summary There are three things that could happen to massively increase the odds of the Games happening. 
 

1. An effective, safe vaccine. 


2. Effective therapeutics, like the kind of thing they gave Trump 

3. Cheap, accurate and fast point of care testing. 

I believe that even if a vaccine isn’t widely available by the Olympics if the other two are in place, they will be game changers.
 

If there are tests available that they can administer 2x per day that provide independent samples then you can test people multiple times prior to competition and establish rules for isolation in case athletes test positive, rules that all athletes and coaches etc agree to abide by. 
 

If next generation therapeutics reduce the duration and severity of the disease then the risk/reward curve changes in favor of the games. 

Lastly on top of all that I feel that because the Olympics take place inside an Olympic village it’s quite different than the French Open or any other competition so far and far closer to the NBA bubble. 

Edited by BigTimeFan

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20 minutes ago, BigTimeFan said:

In summary There are three things that could happen to massively increase the odds of the Games happening. 
 

1. An effective, safe vaccine. 


2. Effective therapeutics, like the kind of thing they gave Trump 

3. Cheap, accurate and fast point of care testing. 

I believe that even if a vaccine isn’t widely available by the Olympics if the other two are in place, they will be game changers.
 

If there are tests available that they can administer 2x per day that provide independent samples then you can test people multiple times prior to competition and establish rules for isolation in case athletes test positive, rules that all athletes and coaches etc agree to abide by. 
 

If next generation therapeutics reduce the duration and severity of the disease then the risk/reward curve changes in favor of the games. 

Lastly on top of all that I feel that because the Olympics take place inside an Olympic village it’s quite different than the French Open or any other competition so far and far closer to the NBA bubble. 

Both scenarios 2 and 3 would only be feasible if you carry out the Olympics without fans and with minimal support staff. Even then, Japan might be reluctant to let in large foreign delegations. 
 

The thing with these new antibody therapeutics is that they are highly effective but likely most beneficial if given early enough as was the case for Trump. I’m not sure their impact will be as great in the US as if we had effective testing/contact tracing where we could immediately identify cases. Even so, I wouldn’t be surprised if mortality drops significantly because of them over the next couple of months until the vaccine is ready. 

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