Dake at 74Kg

[NJDan 589]

Dake looked totally cut and pretty sucked down last night at 79 Kg. How in the world can he get to 74Kg?

[AnklePicker 531]

5 minutes ago, NJDan said:

Dake looked totally cut and pretty sucked down last night at 79 Kg. How in the world can he get to 74Kg?

Thought the same thing. Gonna be tough. Didn’t he make 74kg in Italy?  Was there an allowance?

[hammerlockthree 2,041]

16 minutes ago, NJDan said:

Dake looked totally cut and pretty sucked down last night at 79 Kg. How in the world can he get to 74Kg?

I don't think he looked sucked down, he's always been freakishly lean....but I agree that my main ? with him is if he can handle that cut.

Edited July 26, 2020 by hammerlockthree

[AnklePicker 531]

Just now, hammerlockthree said:

I don't think he looked sucked down, he's always been freakishly lean....but I agree that my main ? with him is if he can handle that cut.

Dake has never had the best gas tank. Question is how much that cut will affect the tank. 

[hammerlockthree 2,041]

1 minute ago, AnklePicker said:

Dake has never had the best gas tank. Question is how much that cut will affect the tank. 

I wouldn't knock his gas tank necessarily, at least not since he was a sophmore in college, I just think he's not scared to be boring.

One of the things that makes Dake special is that he can change his style so readily. If Taylor had a bad weight cut it would undermine his style badly, if Dake is near death off the scale he can compensate really effectively. He seems like he can force a fist fight or a chess match on anyone.

[spladle08 733]

Totally agree guys, JB vs Chamizo Olympic finals.
Going to be FIRE

 

[NJDan 589]

2 minutes ago, spladle08 said:

Totally agree guys, JB vs Chamizo Olympic finals.
Going to be FIRE

 

What about Sadikov?

 

[spladle08 733]

Just now, NJDan said:

What about Sadikov?

 

He's beat them both (a combined) 4 consecutive matches in barn burners....  at some point, the livestock dont make it out? (Sounded like it fit)
One of them beats him in the semis for a fun Olympic finals. :)

[portajohn 139]

5 hours ago, spladle08 said:

Totally agree guys, JB vs Chamizo Olympic finals.
Going to be FIRE

 

Wonder how this prediction is going to age.  Probably neither of them in the Finals

[Plasmodium 1,598]

I'd rather see  a JB and Sidakov final.

[dmm53 471]

The cut from 79KG is 5 KG, which  is 11.02 pounds. 

74 KG is 93.67% of 79 KG.  

So, Dake has to lose 6.33 % of his "normal" wrestling weight for trials and then potentially for the Olympics.  

I sense that his walk-around weight is not too much above 79 KG, but that of course is relevant (and partly speculation).

He's dropped once to 74 KG for the tournament in Italy and won.   Of course, he also wrestled 165 lb his last year in college and then competed at 74 KG for a few years in freestyle.

I think he can do it and be very competitive against JB to say the least. 

He's motivated, and I think the attention to diet, sun,  being barefoot, "scientific" training and all the other stuff is part of the plan to make the cut successful (whatever one believes about its merit).

If Dake gets a bye to the semis at the OTT and then reaches JB (who sits in the finals), don't they wrestle 2 of 3 then?  (I realize this is now still a long way off).

Funny to think that we would have been 3 or 4 days into the Olympics right now had Covid-19 not hit.   Wrestling, I believe was scheduled to start on August 1st.

 

[pamela 1,334]

I thought the cut to 74kg looked like it could be unpleasant for Dake, but someone said it’s probably worse for JB. When Dake first bumped up to 79, I seem to recall a blurb or something that he was weighing-in at like 1-2kg below weight. 

[wrestlingnerd 2,593]

8 hours ago, pamela said:

I thought the cut to 74kg looked like it could be unpleasant for Dake, but someone said it’s probably worse for JB. When Dake first bumped up to 79, I seem to recall a blurb or something that he was weighing-in at like 1-2kg below weight. 

JB stated he cut about 20 lbs for the last Olympics, and an article (Google "Broken and Rebuilt Jordan Burroughs") discussing his comeback had him at 17 over during training (so starting the cut 20 over is reasonable). They are probably pretty similar in size and cut about the same.

Edited July 27, 2020 by wrestlingnerd

[spladle08 733]

12 hours ago, portajohn said:

Wonder how this prediction is going to age.  Probably neither of them in the Finals

Like a fine wine.
If neither of them makes the finals, I will buy you a Vieux Carré

One of them making the finals > Dake makes the team.

[spladle08 733]

12 hours ago, Plasmodium said:

I'd rather see  a JB and Sidakov final.

Not me, I assume JB will go up by 1 with 5 seconds left, and I'll end up smashing every electronic device I own (crippling anxiety would overtake me)
Real talk though. Sidakov is so damn good, he is #1 for a reason.
I do think Chamizo, Dake, Burroughs, can all beat him, but I'm skeptical, that dudes just so consistent.
My Olympic Gold betting odds would be
Sidakov +175
JB +250
Chamizo +350
Dake +600

(or something along those lines....  but like I said Chamizo vs JB finals)
 

Edited July 27, 2020 by spladle08

[Billyhoyle 1,988]

You'd be amazed at how fast the weight melts off when you only eat fermented vegetables. 

[Billyhoyle 1,988]

34 minutes ago, spladle08 said:

Not me, I assume JB will go up by 1 with 5 seconds left, and I'll end up smashing every electronic device I own (crippling anxiety would overtake me)
Real talk though. Sidakov is so damn good, he is #1 for a reason.
I do think Chamizo, Dake, Burroughs, can all beat him, but I'm skeptical, that dudes just so consistent.
My Olympic Gold betting odds would be
Sidakov +175
JB +250
Chamizo +350
Dake +600

(or something along those lines....  but like I said Chamizo vs JB finals)
 

I’d like to recalculate your odds if you don’t mind-please answer the following as a percentage. What do you think the chances are that Burroughs makes the team? What do you think the chances are that Dake makes the team? Assuming Dake makes the team, what do you think the chances are that he wins gold? Assuming Burroughs makes the team, what do you think the chances are that he wins gold? 

[spladle08 733]

5 minutes ago, Billyhoyle said:

I’d like to recalculate your odds if you don’t mind-please answer the following as a percentage. What do you think the chances are that Burroughs makes the team? What do you think the chances are that Dake makes the team? Assuming Dake makes the team, what do you think the chances are that he wins gold? Assuming Burroughs makes the team, what do you think the chances are that he wins gold? 

Lol for the record I was typing out of my a$$ but to entertain.
I think Burroughs is 70% to make the team and 50/50 assuming he makes the team to win the GOLD.
I think Dake is 30% to make the team, and 50/50 to win the GOLD if he makes the team.
Work your wizardry and tell me what better reflects these numbers!
 

Edited July 27, 2020 by spladle08

[Billyhoyle 1,988]

3 minutes ago, spladle08 said:

Lol for the record I was typing out of my a$$ but to entertain.
I think Burroughs is 70% to make the team and 50/50 assuming he makes the team to win the GOLD.
I think Dake is 30% to make the team, and 50/50 to win the GOLD if he makes the team.
Work your wizardry and tell me what better reflects these numbers!
 

Your numbers are actually really close to these odds so no need to adjust. I just incorrectly assumed your odds for either winning the Olympics would be much lower than 50/50. 

[nhs67 1,053]

8 minutes ago, Billyhoyle said:

Your numbers are actually really close to these odds so no need to adjust. I just incorrectly assumed your odds for either winning the Olympics would be much lower than 50/50. 

Give me the numbers in these, please:

Dake and JB both at 50/50 to make the team.

Sidakov(1 seed) 37.5% chance at gold

Chorizo (2 seed) 27.5% chance at gold.

Dake (random draw) at 25% chance of gold.

JB (3 seed) at 22.5%.

Field: The rest 

Edited July 27, 2020 by nhs67

[spladle08 733]

1 minute ago, Billyhoyle said:

Your numbers are actually really close to these odds so no need to adjust. I just incorrectly assumed your odds for either winning the Olympics would be much lower than 50/50. 

They really should be much lower.  but man, I think Sidakov/Burroughs  or Chamizo/Burroughs are both "toss ups"  that strongly favor Burroughs (In my unrealistic mind) and if he ends up only meeting one of them, bump those odds.... I just don't see him losing to anyone else, and  I give him the edge in matches with either of those 2..... (the 2 last second losses to Sidakov acknowledged)

Dake, while I don't like him and I'm glad the Chamizo match went the way it did so people would acknowledge this is going to be a lot tougher than 79kg...  He's a winner.
And if he gets over the hurdle that is JB...  I know he's about to devise the ultimate plan for beating Sidakov... and again in matches with Chamizo or Sidakov (Assuming he optimizes his new physique) I would favor him, and as I stated with JB, I just don't see anyone else in the bracket taking him out. 

Obviously Sidakov and Chamizo  already have their spots, so I just tried to add odds for our "wrestle-in"
But one of those 3 (Chamizo/USA/Sidakov) is winning this weight, and I would probably keep my dear sweet Chamizo as the 3rd most likely....
If all 4 could go, I would say:
JB +175
Dake +250
Sidakov +275
Chamizo +400
Or something wild like that  (Don't over analyze. I just think if we wrestled it 10x JB/Dake finish near the top the most)



 

[spladle08 733]

6 minutes ago, nhs67 said:

Give me the numbers in these, please:

Dake and JB both at 50/50 to make the team.

Sidakov(1 seed) 37.5% chance at gold

Chorizo (2 seed) 27.5% chance at gold.

Dake (random draw) at 25% chance of gold.

JB (3 seed) at 22.5%.

Field: The rest 

NHS67 you're always so smart!

[Billyhoyle 1,988]

4 minutes ago, nhs67 said:

Give me the numbers in these, please:

Dake and JB both at 50/50 to make the team.

Sidakov(1 seed) 37.5% chance at gold

Chorizo (2 seed) 27.5% chance at gold.

Dake (random draw) at 25% chance of gold.

JB (3 seed) at 22.5%.

Field: The rest 

Sidakov: +170

Chamizo: +260

Dake: +700

JB: +790

Field: +790

[nhs67 1,053]

45 minutes ago, Billyhoyle said:

Sidakov: +170

Chamizo: +260

Dake: +700

JB: +790

Field: +790

This seems more accurate to me.

[nhs67 1,053]

51 minutes ago, spladle08 said:

They really should be much lower.  but man, I think Sidakov/Burroughs  or Chamizo/Burroughs are both "toss ups"  that strongly favor Burroughs (In my unrealistic mind) and if he ends up only meeting one of them, bump those odds.... I just don't see him losing to anyone else, and  I give him the edge in matches with either of those 2..... (the 2 last second losses to Sidakov acknowledged)

Dake, while I don't like him and I'm glad the Chamizo match went the way it did so people would acknowledge this is going to be a lot tougher than 79kg...  He's a winner.
And if he gets over the hurdle that is JB...  I know he's about to devise the ultimate plan for beating Sidakov... and again in matches with Chamizo or Sidakov (Assuming he optimizes his new physique) I would favor him, and as I stated with JB, I just don't see anyone else in the bracket taking him out. 

Obviously Sidakov and Chamizo  already have their spots, so I just tried to add odds for our "wrestle-in"
But one of those 3 (Chamizo/USA/Sidakov) is winning this weight, and I would probably keep my dear sweet Chamizo as the 3rd most likely....
If all 4 could go, I would say:
JB +175
Dake +250
Sidakov +275
Chamizo +400
Or something wild like that  (Don't over analyze. I just think if we wrestled it 10x JB/Dake finish near the top the most)



 

 

50 minutes ago, spladle08 said:

NHS67 you're always so smart!

I think they're all four even stevens, personally. Have to factor in seeds and the fact that 2 of the top 4 must go through one another to get there.