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IronChef

Will the season happen?

Will there be a wrestling season?  

81 members have voted

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  1. 1. What is the likelihood that there will be a college wrestling season?

    • Less than 10%
      33
    • 50% - as likely it will happen as won’t
      35
    • Will definitely happen, could be delayed
      8
    • Will definitely happen, but some teams won’t compete at all
      5

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  • Poll closed on 08/14/2020 at 04:00 PM

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F&M just became the latest D1 team to cancel competition until at least January 1st. Infection rates are still headed in the wrong direction. The NCAA may cancel fall championships on Tuesday. As we head into August, do you think there will be wrestling this season?

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I'm hopeful but not placing bets.  I would like the NCAA to take some immediate action (next couple of weeks, anyway) to push the championship tournament back to late April.  It doesn't look like anyone's going to be wrestling in December, the big opens and invitationals won't take place, and no competition will take place until January.  If the St. Louis dates hold, conferences are going to need to move their tournaments up a week to give enough time for a full 14-day quarantine in-between.  Makes for an awfully short season and at some point my mind goes into "Why bother?" mode.

I'm watching to see what Major League Baseball does.  The Marlins went ahead and played last weekend without notifying the Phillies, umpires, or MLB that four of their players (who didn't take the field) had tested positive.  Now the Marlins and Phillies have had a week's worth of games postponed and the Cardinals have a few guys testing positive.  At a conference call last Monday the subject of canceling the season never came up (according to the press release).  I doubt Miami will be able to play for at least another week and there's no way they can make up 12-14 games in less than two months.  My read is that if MLB has to play the season without a handful of teams then that's what they'll do.  If they drop down to only 20 teams (out of 30) able to play, things will be different.

So if a few wrestling teams here and there have to shut down, I think the season continues.  If the Big 10 infects itself in the first week and can't continue, something else happens.

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4 hours ago, jdalu75 said:

I'm hopeful but not placing bets.  I would like the NCAA to take some immediate action (next couple of weeks, anyway) to push the championship tournament back to late April.  It doesn't look like anyone's going to be wrestling in December, the big opens and invitationals won't take place, and no competition will take place until January.  If the St. Louis dates hold, conferences are going to need to move their tournaments up a week to give enough time for a full 14-day quarantine in-between.  Makes for an awfully short season and at some point my mind goes into "Why bother?" mode.

I'm watching to see what Major League Baseball does.  The Marlins went ahead and played last weekend without notifying the Phillies, umpires, or MLB that four of their players (who didn't take the field) had tested positive.  Now the Marlins and Phillies have had a week's worth of games postponed and the Cardinals have a few guys testing positive.  At a conference call last Monday the subject of canceling the season never came up (according to the press release).  I doubt Miami will be able to play for at least another week and there's no way they can make up 12-14 games in less than two months.  My read is that if MLB has to play the season without a handful of teams then that's what they'll do.  If they drop down to only 20 teams (out of 30) able to play, things will be different.

So if a few wrestling teams here and there have to shut down, I think the season continues.  If the Big 10 infects itself in the first week and can't continue, something else happens.

College athletes are not professionals and there is no collective bargaining between athletes and the NCAA. There won’t be a wrestling season until there is a vaccine-terrible publicity and huge risk for litigation otherwise. 

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Some obvious difference between college and pros and between wrestling and other sports:

Colleges cannot put their students in a bubble.

Many colleges are not inviting all their students to campus and are keeping certain class years away. If the kids are not on campus, how can they be on teams?

Wrestling seems a lot less safe than baseball or even basketball. It seems about as unsafe an activity imaginable when it comes to communicating disease.  Am I wrong about this?

 

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8 hours ago, Billyhoyle said:

College athletes are not professionals and there is no collective bargaining between athletes and the NCAA. There won’t be a wrestling season until there is a vaccine-terrible publicity and huge risk for litigation otherwise. 

But haven’t you also said you think there will be a vaccine by the end of the year?   I think most people agree that if there is a season, it won’t start until the 2nd semester, hopefully allowing some more time for a vaccine.

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I think NY and NJ are where we need to look because it started there. While our numbers in NJ plateaued for a month or so they are now going back up. The transmission rate is at 1.44 again and we are a state that has taken masks and distancing about as seriously as any state. 
 

The only way we are going to get anywhere close to possibly having a season is another complete 2 month shutdown where every state wears a mask and takes serious precautions. Basically what Germany did. But we don’t have the leadership or will to pull that off at this point so...we are screwed. 

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10 minutes ago, AnklePicker said:

I think NY and NJ are where we need to look because it started there. 

It started in Seattle, Washington in the US.  They handled it well there.     
 

NY/NJ was the spike in deaths from the patients sent to nursing homes. 

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1 hour ago, 1032004 said:

But haven’t you also said you think there will be a vaccine by the end of the year?   I think most people agree that if there is a season, it won’t start until the 2nd semester, hopefully allowing some more time for a vaccine.

I think the vaccine will be ready for approval by the end of the year. I voted 50/50 because the exact timeline it will take to vaccinate everyone may extend into the spring. The government is mass producing doses already, but college aged people will likely be some of the last to receive them. If it takes until Feb or March to get the entire country vaccinated, I don’t think they will start the college wrestling season.
 

I also anticipate that with college football likely canceled, universities will be relatively eager to cancel non revenue winter sports. So even if everyone is vaccinated by January, I’m not sure the ncaa will be eager to carry out a truncated season. 

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1 minute ago, Pinnum said:

It started in Seattle, Washington in the US.  They handled it well there.     
 

NY/NJ was the spike in deaths from the patients sent to nursing homes. 

It wasn’t handled well anywhere in this country, unfortunately. It took months for Seattle to detect their outbreak and it’s impossible for any one state to act effectively without coordination with the others-if only there was some central governing body in charge of this type of coordination and disease detection. That’s why we are where we are now. 

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2 hours ago, Billyhoyle said:

I think the vaccine will be ready for approval by the end of the year. I voted 50/50 because the exact timeline it will take to vaccinate everyone may extend into the spring. The government is mass producing doses already, but college aged people will likely be some of the last to receive them. If it takes until Feb or March to get the entire country vaccinated, I don’t think they will start the college wrestling season.
 

I also anticipate that with college football likely canceled, universities will be relatively eager to cancel non revenue winter sports. So even if everyone is vaccinated by January, I’m not sure the ncaa will be eager to carry out a truncated season. 

You think football is “likely” getting canceled? IMO the Power 5 at least has at least a 50% of happening if not more

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3 hours ago, Billyhoyle said:

It wasn’t handled well anywhere in this country, unfortunately. It took months for Seattle to detect their outbreak and it’s impossible for any one state to act effectively without coordination with the others-if only there was some central governing body in charge of this type of coordination and disease detection. That’s why we are where we are now. 

The Seattle outbreak was one of the first outside of China.  It started before people knew to even look for it.  

they did a great job there.  They contained it and took swift action at the local level and worked with industry to identify and address the issue.  

The NY and NJ handling was the worst in the US and one of the worst in the world.  They didn’t flatted the curve like other states—including Washington—have done and they needlessly lost many lives due to government directives. 

Other countries have been hit like parts of the US have   And there are parts of the US  that have been minimally impacted.

This isn’t a political debate   Washington and Seattle are on the same Team as New York if you want to make political arguments to pit the different political factions against each other.

You mention how Washington took months to identify the outbreak and yet they have not been devastated by it.  They should have been walloped due to being hit unexpectedly.  But the data is clearly the opposite.  https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/

The places hit the hardest—like Italy and New York—has been due to the nursing homes. That’s where it was first identified in Seattle too.  But they took a different approach. 

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1 hour ago, Pinnum said:

The Seattle outbreak was one of the first outside of China.  It started before people knew to even look for it.  

they did a great job there.  They contained it and took swift action at the local level and worked with industry to identify and address the issue.  

The NY and NJ handling was the worst in the US and one of the worst in the world.  They didn’t flatted the curve like other states—including Washington—have done and they needlessly lost many lives due to government directives. 

Other countries have been hit like parts of the US have   And there are parts of the US  that have been minimally impacted.

This isn’t a political debate   Washington and Seattle are on the same Team as New York if you want to make political arguments to pit the different political factions against each other.

You mention how Washington took months to identify the outbreak and yet they have not been devastated by it.  They should have been walloped due to being hit unexpectedly.  But the data is clearly the opposite.  https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/

The places hit the hardest—like Italy and New York—has been due to the nursing homes. That’s where it was first identified in Seattle too.  But they took a different approach. 

The sequence of SARS-COV2 was published in January. Competent people knew how to look for it then-it’s called RT-PCR. Do you have any idea how simple it is to develop a test for a virus? It’s not complicated at all. 
 

 Washington and everywhere else in this country was brought under control by a lockdown instituted in March, more than a month after the sequence of the virus was known, and before we could actually implement testing. The lag between the publication of the sequence and availability of testing for hospitals in the most scientifically advanced country in the world is one of the most incompetent things I’ve ever seen. It is not complicated to track flights from Wuhan/Europe and realize that we likely had hundreds of infected ppl entering the country in different parts. 
 

The lockdown was also carried out in a haphazard bottom up way rather than top down organization. Just because Washington state had fewer deaths than NY or NJ does not mean Washington did a good job-sure maybe the local governor did the best he could given the circumstances, but overall the response was still abysmal. 
 

Lastly, a lot remains unknown as to why NY/NJ were hit worse. You confidently say it’s due to nursing homes...well there are nursing homes in Washington as well and 20% of NYC overall ended up infected from the first wave. Clearly there were other factors at play including possibly: more seeding events in NYC than Washington, NY/NJ being more densely populated than Washington especially given the prevalence of mass transit in nyc, NY/NJ being slower to lock down than Washington, a hospital system in Washington that was the first in the country to actually test for the virus, a mutation occurring from Europe (D614G) that may increase the rate of spread of the virus. But wait, you are clearly an expert and don’t need to wait for any study analyzing these various factors, so you’re likely right that it’s due to nursing homes. 

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2 hours ago, 1032004 said:

You think football is “likely” getting canceled? IMO the Power 5 at least has at least a 50% of happening if not more

I’d say there’s a 99% chance that college football is at least postponed until the spring. I can’t envision a scenario where unpaid student-athletes take the field in the middle of a pandemic. 

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6 hours ago, AnklePicker said:

I think NY and NJ are where we need to look because it started there. While our numbers in NJ plateaued for a month or so they are now going back up. The transmission rate is at 1.44 again and we are a state that has taken masks and distancing about as seriously as any state. 

Until we no longer took it seriously.

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5 hours ago, Pinnum said:

It started in Seattle, Washington in the US.  They handled it well there.     
 

NY/NJ was the spike in deaths from the patients sent to nursing homes. 

That's actually not true, at least in NJ.  But whatever...

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6 hours ago, klehner said:

That's actually not true, at least in NJ.  But whatever...

What are you disputing?

This was the order requiring Nursing Homes to accept Covid Patients. https://www.nj.gov/health/healthfacilities/documents/CN/temp_waivers/HospitalDischarges_andAdmissions_toPost-AcuteCareSettings.pdf

 

Here is the State's own Covid Data for deaths at Long Term Car Facilities (Nursing Homes).  https://www.nj.gov/health/cd/topics/covid2019_dashboard.shtml  (The tab for Long Term Care Facilities is hiding so you have to click the tab to the right of "Cases and Deaths by Zipcode" and then select it from the additional options).

 

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14 hours ago, Pinnum said:

It started in Seattle, Washington in the US.  They handled it well there.     
 

NY/NJ was the spike in deaths from the patients sent to nursing homes. 

Not sure what that has to do with my point. And NJ did have a plateau for quite some time. Had we continued the plateau with a slight decline we may have had a shot, but we didn’t because of the reasons I mentioned before.
 

We even have clubs running and apparently some camps coming to town. For what?  Going to a club won’t help you much if there isn’t an actual season. It’s a shameful money grab imo.   Makes me sick. Pun intended!

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5 hours ago, AnklePicker said:

We even have clubs running and apparently some camps coming to town. For what?  Going to a club won’t help you much if there isn’t an actual season. It’s a shameful money grab imo.   Makes me sick. Pun intended!

Huh? Going to clubs may be the ONLY way to help you much this year. In season awards aren't the only reason to wrestle (or compete in any sport)

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Even assuming that there is an actual vaccine made by the end of the year, the logicistics of getting it to schools is going to be a nightmare. That and looking at the costs of regular testing, vaccine costs for universities (especially small ones) I just can't see it. Resources are going to go to football teams if anything and I imagine most non-revenue sports will be left in the dust. 

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17 hours ago, IronChef said:

All the pictures I see of youth/club matches going on every weekend where nobody is wearing masks and it's just business as usual makes it hard to feel good about the season.

Well put. It's aggravating seeing all these wrestling events, camps and training in the middle of a pandemic where people aren't wearing masks or social distancing. I agree that it's hard to feel good about any sort of season. College football won't happen, even at the Power 5 conferences, despite some wishful thinking. 

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3 hours ago, gimpeltf said:

Huh? Going to clubs may be the ONLY way to help you much this year. In season awards aren't the only reason to wrestle (or compete in any sport)

For the overwhelming majority of kids who wrestle in this country...they are. Every kid who wrestles seriously has a goal of becoming a state champ.  Hard to do that without a season. 

Edited by AnklePicker

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