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13 minutes ago, AnklePicker said:

It’s not a recommendation. If it were there wouldn’t be consequences. 

It absolutely is.  If it was control over your behavior, there would be no need for consequences, because going against the recommended behavior would be impossible....you would be controlled.  But your decisions are not controlled by others, only by yourself....hence the need for consequences.

We'll agree to disagree. Again, I'm not saying this hasn't been bungled to some degree at the federal level.  Totally agree it has.  My issue is putting 100% of the blame on the government and we the people are exonerated, mainly because we want to fight with the other political party, when it is our actions that actually do or don't spread the virus. Everyone has to chose how they want to go about their individual life, and that's the beautiful thing about this country, we are able to do that.  Within that, we can choose if individuals need to take control of and responsibility for their own actions....or we can blame certain people for the decisions and actions of others.  One way is a loooooot more productive than the other, up to each of us to decide how we are going to go about it.

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6 minutes ago, AnklePicker said:

Ok I’m with you but I never put 100% of the blame on govt.  I take issue with all kinds of people haha.  And it’s not a recommendation but agree to disagree. 

To clarify I didn't mean that you did, I've been on this we the people tangent for a little bit now because I'm tired of seeing people who are putting, literally saying 100% of the blame on the president  (for the record I didn't vote for the guy, and while I love what he has done for manufacturing and production in the US, I won't be voting for president at all this time around for my own reasons).

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It is amazing how some people like to blame everything on the president...when in reality more blame should be laid at the feet of congress...both sides of the isle.  Anywho, again I am with Lurker in that it is up us as the people to make the changes we want to see and we do so by our actions/choices and voting.

And Ankle...for the record, as you may have missed it in my posts...I follow all the recommendations and always have.  Doesn't mean I can't disagree with them, and verbalize those opinions, so if you think because I say something that that puts you and your family in some sort of danger, well, arguing with me sure isn't going to help you, or keep you and your family safe.

Get out and vote people!

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On 8/12/2020 at 6:10 PM, red blades said:

The timing is also very different.  It started earlier in Europe, it got really bad much sooner - and then they shut things down.  Similarly, it started earlier and peaked quickly in NY and NJ - but the numbers here have come down and flattened out.  You really need to look at things in a more localized way in the US - nationally the numbers are not so meaningful, because conditions vary so much regionally.

If you look at deaths / million population, that might be a somewhat better indicator how effective (or not) the response has been in different countries.  But I suspect there is also some manipulation of numbers by some governments.

I think this is true to an extent but not quite.   Also, of course deaths/million population would also be influenced by the timing as well if you're comparing countries who haven't had many new cases/deaths recently vs. the US which is still going for the most part.   Currently the US is ahead of Italy/Spain/UK in that metric but will see what that looks like in a month or so.    In somewhat wrestling-related news, it looks like the Olympic team of Myles Amine, San Marino, currently holds the dubious distinction of having the highest deaths/million population.

Because in the US thing started to "shut down" around the same time, some areas were "shut down" before they were really inundated with cases.  Which "delayed" the curve (so I guess one could certainly conclude lockdowns helped slow the spread), so yeah some states are really now in the middle of their first true curve.

However, looking at a 7-day moving average of deaths, there are a few states, such as Virginia, that had an initial curve, came down, then went back up again (actually they kinda went down and back up twice - although I know it's kinda tough looking at daily deaths in a localized area since we're really only talking numbers in the teens, but you can't really use new cases due to the increase in testing; hospitalizations is probably the best metric but is harder to get data on).

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/virginia/

I haven't looked at all the European countires, but I don't think I've seen any that look like that, and overall most of the ones I've seen do tend to be up then down and stayed down for the most part.   Clicking on a few countries about the size of Virginia (8.5 million), the closest I could find was Portugal (10 million), and their curve while not straight down was still mostly down.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/portugal/

But you also have countries like Switzerland (8.6 million), which appears to have only had a total of 23 deaths in the last month, whereas Virginia had a 7-day moving average of daily deaths of 23 on 8/6 (although has come down in the last week). 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/switzerland/

To be honest, for the most part I'd say the US hasn't done a horrible of "flattening the curve."  One positive comparison for Virginia vs. Switzerland is that at its peak, Switzerland was averaging almost 60 deaths a day, whereas Virginia's highest 7-day average was 33.     So while I guess we are prolonging our misery here (some of which I'd probably attribute to a lack of universal mask wearing), I think it could have been a lot worse in terms of the hospitals being overwhelmed and everything if we did not shut down when we did.

Edited by 1032004

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21 hours ago, dman115 said:

It is amazing how some people like to blame everything on the president...when in reality more blame should be laid at the feet of congress...both sides of the isle.  Anywho, again I am with Lurker in that it is up us as the people to make the changes we want to see and we do so by our actions/choices and voting.

And Ankle...for the record, as you may have missed it in my posts...I follow all the recommendations and always have.  Doesn't mean I can't disagree with them, and verbalize those opinions, so if you think because I say something that that puts you and your family in some sort of danger, well, arguing with me sure isn't going to help you, or keep you and your family safe.

Get out and vote people!

How is this on congress in anyway?  The congress passes laws.  I guess if you are saying congress is at fault because of the relief package, but that wasn't the problem. This is on the President, the governors and to some extent mayors.  They are the leaders of the people.  The problem was with how we responded to the threat.  You clearly are a Trump fan, which is fine.  But if you don't see how he has made himself the face of this its hard to have a discussion.  He put Pence in charge of the Covid task force then after 2 weeks he realized the press this could get and basically pushed Pence to the side.  Then when people looked to Fauci he did the same.  Then same to Birx.  Until now its only Trump at the press conferences.  Trump wanted to be the hero of this he should also take the hits.  If you speak to people from other countries they view us as undisciplined with our response.  Which to me as a wrestler is hard to take.  To me the worst thing the President continues to do is say " It will just go away."  as he continues to say.  I view things as a team with a goal.  If our goal is to defeat this like many countries are on the way to doing we can work together.  But when the president continues to say it will just go away its hard to keep a team of 330 Million people disciplined.    

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35 minutes ago, Regulator said:

How is this on congress in anyway?  The congress passes laws.  I guess if you are saying congress is at fault because of the relief package, but that wasn't the problem. This is on the President, the governors and to some extent mayors.  They are the leaders of the people.  The problem was with how we responded to the threat.  You clearly are a Trump fan, which is fine.  But if you don't see how he has made himself the face of this its hard to have a discussion.  He put Pence in charge of the Covid task force then after 2 weeks he realized the press this could get and basically pushed Pence to the side.  Then when people looked to Fauci he did the same.  Then same to Birx.  Until now its only Trump at the press conferences.  Trump wanted to be the hero of this he should also take the hits.  If you speak to people from other countries they view us as undisciplined with our response.  Which to me as a wrestler is hard to take.  To me the worst thing the President continues to do is say " It will just go away."  as he continues to say.  I view things as a team with a goal.  If our goal is to defeat this like many countries are on the way to doing we can work together.  But when the president continues to say it will just go away its hard to keep a team of 330 Million people disciplined.    

Wait - so, it's all on Trump, but we're supposed to be a team? Sounds like you want it both ways - when things go well, we're a team, and when things go poorly, Trump is ineffective as a leader? I may have misunderstood.

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3 minutes ago, Janderson133 said:

Wait - so, it's all on Trump, but we're supposed to be a team? Sounds like you want it both ways - when things go well, we're a team, and when things go poorly, Trump is ineffective as a leader? I may have misunderstood.

When did I say its all on Trump? I believe I said "This is on the President, the governors and to some extent mayors."

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I don't want to edit my post above.  But with a team you have coaches and captains.  When the goals are unclear it creates dissension which is what we have in our country.  I was saying our goals of how to defeat this were unclear.  The team doesn't set the goals the Coach and the Captains do.  

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15 minutes ago, Regulator said:

I don't want to edit my post above.  But with a team you have coaches and captains.  When the goals are unclear it creates dissension which is what we have in our country.  I was saying our goals of how to defeat this were unclear.  The team doesn't set the goals the Coach and the Captains do.  

Makes sense - I see your point. Particularly with regard to the goals being unclear, that's extremely well-stated - "slow the curve" vs. "stop the spread" etc.

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1 hour ago, Regulator said:

How is this on congress in anyway?  The congress passes laws.  I guess if you are saying congress is at fault because of the relief package, but that wasn't the problem. This is on the President, the governors and to some extent mayors.  They are the leaders of the people.  The problem was with how we responded to the threat.  You clearly are a Trump fan, which is fine.  But if you don't see how he has made himself the face of this its hard to have a discussion.  He put Pence in charge of the Covid task force then after 2 weeks he realized the press this could get and basically pushed Pence to the side.  Then when people looked to Fauci he did the same.  Then same to Birx.  Until now its only Trump at the press conferences.  Trump wanted to be the hero of this he should also take the hits.  If you speak to people from other countries they view us as undisciplined with our response.  Which to me as a wrestler is hard to take.  To me the worst thing the President continues to do is say " It will just go away."  as he continues to say.  I view things as a team with a goal.  If our goal is to defeat this like many countries are on the way to doing we can work together.  But when the president continues to say it will just go away its hard to keep a team of 330 Million people disciplined.    

Well said and I like the way you weaved wrestling in there. 

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48 minutes ago, Janderson133 said:

Makes sense - I see your point. Particularly with regard to the goals being unclear, that's extremely well-stated - "slow the curve" vs. "stop the spread" etc.

Yep and it’s not limited to that. We are half in on many different strategies. Are we stopping the virus? Are we going for herd immunity? Are we just trying to half ass keep it at bay? Waiting for a vaccine? 
And the lack of guidance for schools is ridiculous.

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On 8/12/2020 at 11:43 AM, AnklePicker said:

In the last 11 years NJ has had 15,000 flu deaths. We’ve had 15,000 Covid deaths so far this year. There’s some data for you. 
 

Will it go away in Brazil and India after the election?  Go back to putting your head in the Sahara. 

Are you deliberately ignoring the protests and riots that have been allowed to go on?

Edited by jsn112

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On 8/12/2020 at 3:43 PM, PAFAN01 said:

No further comment

Reported coronavirus deaths yesterday:

• France: 0

• United Kingdom: 0

• Canada: 4

• Germany: 6

• Italy: 6

• United States: 1,450

Correction:

*Protests/riots: 1,450

No further comment.

Edited by jsn112

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1 hour ago, Janderson133 said:

Makes sense - I see your point. Particularly with regard to the goals being unclear, that's extremely well-stated - "slow the curve" vs. "stop the spread" etc.

When Covid first hit and our Governor here in N.J.  locked the state down,we were told it was to "flatten the curve".

Apparently a number of people didn't understand exactly what that meant.

The purpose of "flattening the curve" was to reduce the number of Covid cases at any one time (peak) so as to

not overwhelm the hospitals.

That reduced the peak,but extended the length of the curve.

As anyone who had to suffer through Calculus will tell you,the area under the curve,in this case

infections/deaths,is the same.

So "flattening the curve"  didn't reduce infections or save lives, it just extended how long it took to get to the

same end number.

It took a while,but Governor Murphy  reluctantly admitted this at one of his press briefings.

 

 

 

Edited by rpbobcat

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2 hours ago, Regulator said:

I don't want to edit my post above.  But with a team you have coaches and captains.  When the goals are unclear it creates dissension which is what we have in our country.  I was saying our goals of how to defeat this were unclear.  The team doesn't set the goals the Coach and the Captains do.  

Agreee, but when the player (governors of some states) screws up by doing something like sending elderly people to almost certain death, they should take some of the responsibility too.  Lots of fault to go around here.

To get somewhat back on topic, it’s interesting that basically the same thing is happening with the NCAA.   No clear direction from them, leaving all the conferences and even schools in some cases to do their own thing.  

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31 minutes ago, rpbobcat said:

When Covid first hit and our Governor here in N.J.  locked the state down,we were told it was to "flatten the curve".

Apparently a number of people didn't understand exactly what that meant.

The purpose of "flattening the curve" was to reduce the number of Covid cases at any one time (peak) so as to

not overwhelm the hospitals.

That reduced the peak,but extended the length of the curve.

As anyone who had to suffer through Calculus will tell you,the area under the curve,in this case

infections/deaths,is the same.

So "flattening the curve"  didn't reduce infections or save lives, it just extended how long it took to get to the

same end number.

It took a while,but Governor Murphy  reluctantly admitted this at one of his press briefings.

There's no way to prove any numbers here since it happened the way it happened and you can't go back and do it differently to provide a control but the basic theory you lay out is flawed. If the hospitals had been overwhelmed, it's probable more would have died due to lack of ability to handle them. That was the point. I remember hearing from Italy that the doctors were basically deciding who to try to save. The early days were brutal for them but the quick and drastic shutdown there brought things down quickly so even though they probably had more deaths per day early because of being overwhelmed they brought it down soon enough to reduce the area under the curve overall.

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1 hour ago, 1032004 said:

Agreee, but when the player (governors of some states) screws up by doing something like sending elderly people to almost certain death, they should take some of the responsibility too.  Lots of fault to go around here.

To get somewhat back on topic, it’s interesting that basically the same thing is happening with the NCAA.   No clear direction from them, leaving all the conferences and even schools in some cases to do their own thing.  

Not to get away from the focus, but it seems like this would be an ideal opportunity for someone like Flo (not that they will), to push the idea of wrestling being allowed to continue in more of a 'bubble' style. Hell, we weren't making money from the spectators anyway - and with football off in the Big10, it might be a chance to pick up a whole bunch of fans.

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2 hours ago, Janderson133 said:

Not to get away from the focus, but it seems like this would be an ideal opportunity for someone like Flo (not that they will), to push the idea of wrestling being allowed to continue in more of a 'bubble' style. Hell, we weren't making money from the spectators anyway - and with football off in the Big10, it might be a chance to pick up a whole bunch of fans.

As long as they have the streaming rights of course.

I imagine they lose a few subscribers if no college wrestling until January at the earliest...

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3 hours ago, Janderson133 said:

Not to get away from the focus, but it seems like this would be an ideal opportunity for someone like Flo (not that they will), to push the idea of wrestling being allowed to continue in more of a 'bubble' style. Hell, we weren't making money from the spectators anyway - and with football off in the Big10, it might be a chance to pick up a whole bunch of fans.

The teams still have to travel.    Hmmm.   Maybe a holiday tournament might be put in a well regulated bubble.  But remember, some kids are learning online, others attending classes.   Its gonna be costly.

The availability of a vaccine is going to make sports work.  

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4 hours ago, 1032004 said:

To get somewhat back on topic, it’s interesting that basically the same thing is happening with the NCAA.   No clear direction from them, leaving all the conferences and even schools in some cases to do their own thing.  

There is no clear direction from anyone because no one really knows what to do. Everyone is fumbling in the dark. We are smart enough to put a man on the moon, but this pandemic has confirmed to me that in a lot of ways we are clueless.

Where I live (Los Angeles county), I feel like there has generally been a very aggressive response since day 1 (mid-March) in terms of locking down, wearing masks, social distancing, etc. The local leaders have taken it very seriously. And yet, LA county has been hit very hard. I hear a lot of people locally complain about people in Orange County (our neighbor) where there has been much more "civil disobedience" in the form of filling the beaches, parks, complaining about masks, etc. And yet, compared to Orange County, LA county has had a higher infection rate and death rate since the beginning.

Would LA county have been better off had they exhibited more "civil disobedience" like Orange County? Would Orange County have been doing even better than LA County than they already are had they not been as disobedient to the mask and distancing recommendations? I don't think there is any way to answer these questions. 

I've heard many times how horrible the US has done at handling the pandemic. But I haven't heard exactly what it is we were supposed to do differently to be in a better position. Maybe we should be more like China. On the John Hopkins coronavirus map, they show China at 4,700 deaths compared to the 168,000 in the US. China must really know how to control a pandemic! Why don't they tell everyone their secret so the world can handle the pandemic as well as they have?

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6 hours ago, rpbobcat said:

So "flattening the curve"  didn't reduce infections or save lives, it just extended how long it took to get to the same end number.

Except we're not at that end number yet; there's still a long time to go...

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10 hours ago, Return of Aztec said:

There is no clear direction from anyone because no one really knows what to do. Everyone is fumbling in the dark. We are smart enough to put a man on the moon, but this pandemic has confirmed to me that in a lot of ways we are clueless.

Where I live (Los Angeles county), I feel like there has generally been a very aggressive response since day 1 (mid-March) in terms of locking down, wearing masks, social distancing, etc. The local leaders have taken it very seriously. And yet, LA county has been hit very hard. I hear a lot of people locally complain about people in Orange County (our neighbor) where there has been much more "civil disobedience" in the form of filling the beaches, parks, complaining about masks, etc. And yet, compared to Orange County, LA county has had a higher infection rate and death rate since the beginning.

Would LA county have been better off had they exhibited more "civil disobedience" like Orange County? Would Orange County have been doing even better than LA County than they already are had they not been as disobedient to the mask and distancing recommendations? I don't think there is any way to answer these questions. 

I've heard many times how horrible the US has done at handling the pandemic. But I haven't heard exactly what it is we were supposed to do differently to be in a better position. Maybe we should be more like China. On the John Hopkins coronavirus map, they show China at 4,700 deaths compared to the 168,000 in the US. China must really know how to control a pandemic! Why don't they tell everyone their secret so the world can handle the pandemic as well as they have?

To answer your questions about LA/Orange County, the most likely answers are no and yes.   Most research seems to suggest that the inner cities are experiencing higher infection rates because they live in higher-density housing, often with more people in a home, and often work jobs that they can’t do from home.   Lower income folks have also experienced higher death rates because they’re also more likely to have existing health issues that cause complications with covid.

The main thing the US screwed up on a national level is testing.   I think it was the first big batch of tests we had didn’t work, which put us way behind.   And without help from the federal government, states were fighting with each other for tests.  In the beginning it was almost impossible to get a test unless you had symptoms AND you knew you had specific contact with a confirmed case.  Which likely lead to a lot of spread from mild/presymtomatic/maybe even asymptomatic people.  Most of the countries that have had success have done excessive testing and contact tracing to find those mild or asymptomatic cases and isolate them.  Even now apparently to get tested you often need to wait in a multiple hours long line.

The other thing I put some blame on Trump specifically for is his own initial reluctance to wear a mask, which likely influenced some of his supporters to think wearing a mask was a violation of their freedomz.  At least he’s changed his tune recently.  Yes, the CDC changed it’s guidance on masks, but that was in like early April soon after we had some more information. 

But, as mentioned the governors that sent covid patients to nursing homes in all likelihood led to more deaths than would have happened otherwise.  So really, I’d say outside of some states like NY/NJ, the while not great, the US honestly hasn’t done a completely horrible job of “flattening the curve.”

There have been countries like New Zealand that were able to completely stop the spread, by instituting a strict lockdown early on (although even they have had some new cases recently after 100 days without community spread).  But that’s an island of only 5 million people, highly unlikely the US could have done that.

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3 hours ago, 1032004 said:

To answer your questions about LA/Orange County, the most likely answers are no and yes.  

Most of the countries that have had success have done excessive testing and contact tracing to find those mild or asymptomatic cases and isolate them.

Thanks for your thoughtful reply. My inclination is the same as yours but this example illustrates to me how much is out of anyone's control. Los Angeles and Orange counties are very similar to each other in the grand scheme. From the outside looking in, they hardly seem different at all. And yet, there are differences. Both counties have high density and poor areas, but LA county has a much larger high-density and poor area than Orange County, as you mentioned. 

For the countries that have had "success," what does that mean? As I understand it, in the long run flattening the curve won't change the area under the curve so whether a country manages a slower, flatter pandemic or a faster, higher pandemic, what is the real difference? I understand that if things happen too fast there can be a lot of collateral damage (overwhelmed health care system, etc) and no fair-minded person wants that. From what I can tell, we haven't had that happen here in the US. But there is collateral damage on the other side too for keeping things locked down longer. The more time passes, the more I think a faster, higher pandemic is better than a slow, flat pandemic. People are resilient, but the collateral damage of essentially shutting down huge swaths of our society until a vaccine arrives (or whatever the goal is now, but that's where it looks like it's headed) is unfathomable. 

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1 hour ago, Return of Aztec said:

Thanks for your thoughtful reply. My inclination is the same as yours but this example illustrates to me how much is out of anyone's control. Los Angeles and Orange counties are very similar to each other in the grand scheme. From the outside looking in, they hardly seem different at all. And yet, there are differences. Both counties have high density and poor areas, but LA county has a much larger high-density and poor area than Orange County, as you mentioned. 

For the countries that have had "success," what does that mean? As I understand it, in the long run flattening the curve won't change the area under the curve so whether a country manages a slower, flatter pandemic or a faster, higher pandemic, what is the real difference? I understand that if things happen too fast there can be a lot of collateral damage (overwhelmed health care system, etc) and no fair-minded person wants that. From what I can tell, we haven't had that happen here in the US. But there is collateral damage on the other side too for keeping things locked down longer. The more time passes, the more I think a faster, higher pandemic is better than a slow, flat pandemic. People are resilient, but the collateral damage of essentially shutting down huge swaths of our society until a vaccine arrives (or whatever the goal is now, but that's where it looks like it's headed) is unfathomable. 

There are quite a few countries that have had success by also making the total area under the curve smaller.  Germany seems to be one that is often cited.    Their population is double that of California, but they've had almost 2,000 less deaths, including about 140 total in the last month - which is about what California has been averaging per day recently.

Edit: But again it seems like the difference came down to more contact tracing and testing.   Once it's under control, you can open but will still need to take precautions which for whatever reason a lot of people in the US don't care to do.   I can't remember if it was Germany (South Korea maybe?), but you had to like sign in on an app on your phone whenever you went to a store, so that if someone who tested positive was determined to have been there, they could easily get in touch with those who could have been exposed.   Good luck getting most Americans to do that...

Edited by 1032004

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