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TEAMS Over-performed vs. Under-performed

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Here are the final team scores:

 

1. Penn State 123.5

2. Oklahoma St. 119.5

3. Minnesota 103.0

4. Iowa 73.0

5. Cornell 65.0

6. Ohio St. 59.5

7. Missouri 56.5

8. Oregon St. 48.5

9. Illinois 45.5

10. Virginia Tech 43.5

11. Iowa St. 41.5

12. Oklahoma 38.5

13. Nebraska 38.0

14. Edinboro 37.5

15. Northern Iowa 34.0

15. Pittsburgh 34.0

17. Northwestern 32.5

18. Central Michigan 30.5

19. Boise State 29.0

20. The Citadel 27.0

21. Virginia 23.5

22. North Carolina 21.5

23. Wyoming 20.5

24. Kent St. 20.0

25. Lehigh 18.5

26. Columbia 17.0

27. Maryland 16.5

27. Wisconsin 16.5

29. Ohio 16.0

30. North Dakota St. 15.5

31. Purdue 11.0

32. Binghamton 10.0

33. Clarion 9.0

33. Michigan 9.0

35. Pennsylvania 7.5

35. Rutgers 7.5

37. Bloomsburg 6.0

38. Air Force 5.5

38. Stanford 5.5

40. Rider 4.5

41. Arizona St. 4.0

41. Eastern Mich. 4.0

41. Harvard 4.0

41. Indiana 4.0

41. Northern Ill. 4.0

46. Bucknell 3.5

46. Hofstra 3.5

46. Utah Valley 3.5

49. Appalachian S. 3.0

49. Navy 3.0

51. American 2.5

51. Boston U. 2.5

51. Brown 2.5

51. Michigan St. 2.5

55. Chattanooga 2.0

55. Frank. & Marsh. 2.0

57. Buffalo 1.5

57. Drexel 1.5

57. Lock Haven 1.5

60. CSU Bakersfield 1.0

60. Gardner-Webb 1.0

60. Old Dominion 1.0

63. Duke 0.5

63. North Carolina St. 0.5

63. West Virginia 0.5

66. Army 0.0

66. Cal Poly 0.0

66. Campbell 0.0

66. Cleveland State 0.0

66. Davidson 0.0

66. George Mason 0.0

66. South Dakota State 0.0

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Here is a late Feb team projection based on rankings from wr.com. I couldn't find the scoring projections based on seeding. Someone usually puts this up before the tournament. Just couldn't find it.

 

1) Penn State Nittany Lions – 115 pts

2) Oklahoma State Cowboys – 106 pts

3) Minnesota Golden Gophers – 99 pts

4) Iowa Hawkeyes – 91 pts

5) Missouri Tigers – 72 pts

6) Oregon State Beavers – 69 pts

7) Ohio State Buckeyes – 68 pts

8) Cornell Big Red – 61 pts

9) Virginia Tech Hokies – 50 pts

10) Central Michigan Chippewas – 49 pts

11) Oklahoma Sooners – 44 pts

12) Lehigh Mountain Hawks – 43 pts

13) Nebraska Cornhuskers – 42 pts

14) Illinois Fighting Illini – 41 pts

15) Pittsburgh Panthers – 38 pts

16) Edinboro Fighting Scots – 37 pts

17) Northwestern Wildcats – 36 pts

18) Boise State Broncos – 30 pts

19) Binghamton Bearcats – 28 pts

20) Kent State Golden Flashes – 27 pts

21) Maryland Terrapins – 26 pts

22) Virginia Cavaliers – 25 pts

23) Wisconsin Badgers – 24 pts

24) Air Force Falcons – 23 pts

25) Wyoming Cowboys – 21pts

26) Northern Iowa Panthers – 19 pts

27) Iowa State Cyclones – 18 pts

28) Penn Quakers – 17 pts

29) Clarion Golden Eagles – 16 pts

30) North Dakota State Bison – 15 pts

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I'd say PSU is a wash. Their big guns over-performed and some of their other qualifiers underperformed.

OSU overperformed

Minny about right.

Iowa underperformed

Cornell overperformed

Missouri/tOSU/OrState slightly underperformed. Slightly

etc, etc.

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I know it is not within the premise of the topic (i.e. they are not within the top 20) but Michigan delivered an unadulterated FLOP.

 

The AVERAGE performance by any of the PSU, OkSt, and MINN was higher than the achievements of Michigan's entire team (10 wrestlers, > 100 team points, average >10/wrestler). Perhaps a team name change to Wolverettes is in order.

 

Rebuilding is one thing but this is more of a rebirth. Reincarnation. Re-conception.

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Rebuilding is one thing but this is more of a rebirth. Reincarnation. Re-conception.

 

That's exactly what's going on. They are turning over their lineup. They got into this mess with years of bad recruiting (McFarland), and they're getting out of it with good recruiting (Bormet/Pritzlaff). I think Michigan will have a tougher breed of wrestlers in the near future. Right now, not so much.

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Iowa State was a big over preformer. Who aat the beginning of the year had Iowa State in the top 10 most of the tournament and finishing 11th with 3 AA. Congrats to KJ, staff and team. They were ready to wrestle and were very strong on Friday.

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Lehigh really crapped the proverbial bed. Napoli was a #3 seed and went 0-2. He must have been sick or injured. I can't think of another reason why he wouldn't have done better. However, Nate Brown also underperformed as a #9 seed. But for Hamlin wrestling his butt off, it was an awful tournament.

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Gotta mention Illinois here. With a great effort by Delgado and good support from Polz and Blanton the Illini came in a solid ninth (sixth last year) which is commendable. Gonzales won four bouts and had another AA round to his credit. The real "should, woulda, coulda" element was missing B.J. Futrell. As a two time AA and highly ranked and regarded kid a solid placement at 141lbs would have meant another AA and as high as a fifth place team finish.

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How about Va Tech finishing in the top 10. They lose Yates, but bring back Devin Carter along with 3 returning AA's. Plus they have some big name recruits coming in.

 

Also, how about a shout out to The Citadel. 2 AA's for the Southern Conference 3rd place team!

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How about Va Tech finishing in the top 10. They lose Yates, but bring back Devin Carter along with 3 returning AA's. Plus they have some big name recruits coming in.

 

Also, how about a shout out to The Citadel. 2 AA's for the Southern Conference 3rd place team!

 

VT also loses Garnet...forgot about that. Still bring back 3 returning AA's, including Carter.

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Michael Moreno's neck has got to be hurting after wrestling Taylor Massa. Moreno fought through it and dominated and broke Massa. That move is going to have to be looked at. In the Yates and Taylor match, they called it potential dangerous when Yates tried to use it.

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List of Over-Performers (From the greatest to the least)

 

Iowa State: 130.56%

Northern Iowa: 78.95%

Oklahoma State: 12.74%

Illinois: 10.98%

Penn State: 7.39%

Cornell: 6.56%

Minnesota: 4.04%

North Dakota St.: 3.33%

Edinboro: 1.35%

 

The above is based on the percentage increase of each team's projected score when compared to

their actual score. For example, Iowa State was projected to score 18 points, but actually scored

42.5 points. Therefore, they scored 130.56% more points than was expected.

 

Note: I included all statistical over-performers. However, since some of them are so minor,

I'd suggest cutting off the data somewhere around the 5% to 10% range. (Example: Edinboro

was projected to score 37 points and actually scored 37.5 points. For all practical purposes,

they finished where expected. However, on a strictly statistical basis, they "over-performed"

by 1.35% more points than expected.)

 

Coming up next, the under-performers... :shock:

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List of Over-Performers (From the greatest to the least)

 

Iowa State: 130.56%

Northern Iowa: 78.95%

Oklahoma State: 12.74%

Illinois: 10.98%

Penn State: 7.39%

Cornell: 6.56%

Minnesota: 4.04%

North Dakota St.: 3.33%

Edinboro: 1.35%

 

The above is based on the percentage increase of each team's projected score when compared to

their actual score. For example, Iowa State was projected to score 18 points, but actually scored

42.5 points. Therefore, they scored 130.56% more points than was expected.

 

Note: I included all statistical over-performers. However, since some of them are so minor,

I'd suggest cutting off the data somewhere around the 5% to 10% range. (Example: Edinboro

was projected to score 37 points and actually scored 37.5 points. For all practical purposes,

they finished where expected. However, on a strictly statistical basis, they "over-performed"

by 1.35% more points than expected.)

 

Coming up next, the under-performers... :shock:

 

Nice work Hurricane

 

Looks like Northern Iowa & Iowa State both far exceeding expectations from the rest of the pack. What would you attribute that too, and is it a co-incidence these schools are both from the state of IOWA? Maybe in the shadows of IOWA? Definitively impressed with Citadel as well. Who is the coach out there?

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Biggest under-performers.

(I'd take some of these, like Air Force, with a grain of salt - because they're based on just 1 or 2 guys.)

 

Air Force: -76.09%

Binghamton: -64.29%

Lehigh: -56.98%

Pennsylvania: -55.88%

Clarion: -43.75%

Central Michigan: -37.76%

Maryland: -36.54%

Wisconsin: -31.25%

Oregon State: -29.71%

Kent State: -25.93%

Missouri: -21.53%

Iowa: -19.78%

Virginia Tech: -13.00%

Pittsburgh: -12.82%

Ohio State : -12.50%

Oklahoma: -12.50%

Northwestern: -9.72%

Nebraska: -9.52%

Virginia: -6.00%

Boise State: -3.33%

Wyoming: -2.38%

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Even more impressive about Iowa State's performance is that two of their All-Americans were unseeded, the other AA wrestled to his seed, and they had Weatherman out-perform expectations. Gotta give credit to Jackson for that, as he's received a ton of flack about his wrestling under-performing at NCAA's. Well, he turned it around this year.

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