Ivy League just cancels all Winter Sports

[HokieHWT 593]

4 minutes ago, TBar1977 said:

Does someone (not me)  living under my roof count? At least I get good information. 

Fair enough.

[HokieHWT 593]

3 minutes ago, TBar1977 said:

I disagree. I do so because I have heard THEM disagree on various aspects of mask wearing. 

 

The great thing about America is people can have a difference of opinion. The bad part is only half of those opinions are correct. Not saying yours is or isn’t. But the greatest question you can ever ask yourself is “but what if?”

[TBar1977 4,608]

Since we were discussing today "Who gets to decide" in reference to edicts,  mandates, lockdowns, rules, laws or whatever you want to call them ... as it would turn out, We the People get to decide. Literally. Well, at least with regards to one aspect of the new, "requirements". That's the word I'm going to use in the future to describe these decrees. They are now "requirements". Not laws. Not rules or regulations. Requirements. 

She "prefers" no one travel to or from PA during the holidays. OK, so this is simply a preference item. Note taken. 

According to Health Secretary Rachel Levine, the rest of the "requirements" will be enforced by businesses and law enforcement. 

https://www.inquirer.com/health/coronavirus/live/covid-coronavirus-cases-pa-philadelphia-nj-de-restrictions-updates-hospital-vaccine-news-20201117.html#card-1477532779

[TBar1977 4,608]

10 minutes ago, HokieHWT said:

 

The great thing about America is people can have a difference of opinion. The bad part is only half of those opinions are correct. Not saying yours is or isn’t. But the greatest question you can ever ask yourself is “but what if?”

I do ask this question. This is why I wear a mask when appropriate. And not a flimsy cloth mask or gator sleeve either. I won't wear one when it provides no benefit on the side of a mountain. 

[TBar1977 4,608]

32 minutes ago, HokieHWT said:

Fair enough.

Btw, let me mention something here. A ton of information gets passed around by otherwise smart people like it is a virtual certainty or at least a high probability of occurring. Then it doesn't come anywhere close to happening. Think of the original projections for US and Worldwide deaths as an example. Another example is the stress to the health care system that was predicted last April. One institution predicted they'd have between 4300 and 14,300 inpatients from Covid at the height of the pandemic. The reality is they had about 400. 

Now fast forward to today. They are again predicting hospitals will be over run with Covid patients. That directive is inside the article I just posted above. Given the sheer scale of their prior miscalculation, should people just assume this time they will be correct? 

EDIT: Some guy said I will be on my deathbed claiming Covid was a hoax. Ok, that's ridiculous. But here is the thing. It's obviously NOT a hoax, but the reality of the virus should not give rise to brazenly shameless fear mongering either. People need to do the right thing, but they don't need to be fear shamed into compliance with "requirements" that defy logic. 

Why doesn't anyone, and I mean ANYONE, ever do a simple thing like put out a video on how to NOT wear a mask. If someone really wants to get more people to do the right thing, stop worrying about hikers and mounting runners and get these clowns that won't cover their noses in the grocery store mosh pit a better understanding of what needs to happen when they wear their masks. 

Edited November 18, 2020 by TBar1977

[cu155 32]

32 minutes ago, HokieHWT said:

Google Chinese government killing its own citizens. 35,000,000+ since 1949. Recently, outspoken business men, scientists, doctors, researchers, have VANISHED for speaking out. The guy who tried to warn the government about COVID, two weeks before the initial outbreak was put into prison where he died from COVID.

I know it’s scary world out there kid, but step out of your bubble and check out reality. This world sucks.

I thought you didn't want to debate the topic?  I guess that's not the case.  Thank you for the history lesson but I'm well versed in Chinese history, politics and economic policy and have lived and worked there for 15 years.   I would be the last person to suggest that Chinese communist party is perfect or that bad things don't happen in China and I have to deal with elements of government policy there that I strongly disagree with.  There is a lot of stuff that happens there that isn't right.  There is also a gross misrepresentation by world media of certain things that happen in China.  However, this thread has been about Covid and the role that restrictions can/could/should/should not play in mitigating negative outcomes and it's very hard to argue that their policies haven't worked.  

[HokieHWT 593]

3 minutes ago, TBar1977 said:

Btw, let me mention something here. A ton of information gets passed around by otherwise smart people like it is a virtual certainty or at least a high probability of occurring. Then it doesn't come anywhere close to happening. Think of the original projections for US and Worldwide deaths as an example. Another example is the stress to the health care system that was predicted last April. One institution predicted they'd have between 4300 and 14,300 inpatients from Covid at the height of the pandemic. The reality is they had about 400. 

Now fast forward to today. They are again predicting hospitals will be over run with Covid patients. That directive is inside the article I just posted above. Given the sheer scale of their prior miscalculation, should people just assume this time they will be correct? 

Since someone in your house is a professional, have them show you a simulation of the pandemic using EpiModel on R. If they don’t use R, or have access to epidemiology add-ons to for their modeling software, try out GLEAMviz. 
 

I’ll leave it at this, but think I’m going to take some time off this thread for a while after, I guarantee you, few people are listening to what the true experts, not the mouth pieces, spokesperson, media release writers, the true experts, the ones working 80-100 hours a week on this.

This is vague, I hope, enough to tell. I began consulting for a state department of education in the south central United States early summer. I was to use my expertise in education, research methods, epidemiology, and biostatistics to help that state open schools safely. By the end of August, they refused to listen, told the school districts if they didn’t open by a certain date those districts would not receive funding. I expressed concerns, was told I could resign, I explained I would but they would be required to pay out the remaining, agreed up compensation. They agreed. I now consultant, as I like, for various other organizations and it’s pretty much the same thing. I tell them what I found, sometimes they agree and I keep going, sometimes they don’t and I get paid to leave.

Please try to stay healthy and safe everyone!

[HokieHWT 593]

10 minutes ago, cu155 said:

I thought you didn't want to debate the topic?  I guess that's not the case.  Thank you for the history lesson but I'm well versed in Chinese history, politics and economic policy and have lived and worked there for 15 years.   I would be the last person to suggest that Chinese communist party is perfect or that bad things don't happen in China and I have to deal with elements of government policy there that I strongly disagree with.  There is a lot of stuff that happens there that isn't right.  There is also a gross misrepresentation by world media of certain things that happen in China.  However, this thread has been about Covid and the role that restrictions can/could/should/should not play in mitigating negative outcomes and it's very hard to argue that their policies haven't worked.  

Have you lived and worked in Hong Kong or Mainland China? 

[ionel 2,745]

2 hours ago, HokieHWT said:

Since I don’t know how to put up a poll, I’ll ask this, feel free to respond:

Do any of you currently work in, or have a degree in any of the following fields:

public health, virology, biostatistics, genetics, epidemiology, molecular biology, medicine?

 

To answer such can you first explain the difference in biostatistics versus regular or real statistics?

[ionel 2,745]

43 minutes ago, HokieHWT said:

 

The great thing about America is people can have a difference of opinion. The bad part is only half of those opinions are correct. Not saying yours is or isn’t. But the greatest question you can ever ask yourself is “but what if?”

pretty sure its nowhere close to half (50%).  ;_;

[HokieHWT 593]

7 minutes ago, ionel said:

To answer such can you first explain the difference in biostatistics versus regular or real statistics?

Difference is biostats are obtained from biology based experiments rather than something compiled from another realm, a  social science for example. There aren’t that many differences, mathematically, just biostats are more applied than theoretical.

Edited November 18, 2020 by HokieHWT

[HokieHWT 593]

4 minutes ago, ionel said:

pretty sure its nowhere close to half (50%).  ;_;

:D (out of face clicks) yeah sorry I meant between two people. Although both could be wrong, I’ve seen that recently but can’t remember where....

[klehner 756]

On 11/16/2020 at 5:38 PM, AHamilton said:

I think threats are an interesting thing.  I feel that I am pretty courteous regarding mask wearing.  I also live in a community where I can be fined $300 for not wearing a mask outside at all times.  I will admit to not always abiding by this mandate.

For instance, I run marathons.  I had a 13.1 mile run planned for last Saturday.  I am required to wear a mask during this entire run, or I can be fined.  I chose to risk the fine.  I passed within 50 ft of another human a grand total of twice during the run.  When this was the case, I moved to the other side of the street the first time and moved probably 15 ft away from the oncoming (and unmasked) individual.  I am following the science, getting exercise, getting sun and vitamin D.  Do I really need to wear a mask for almost two hours when I barely saw another human and never came within 10 feet?  Absurd dictate.

FYI.

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/sms.13832

https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/17/21/8110

[dman115 551]

11 hours ago, HokieHWT said:

Since someone in your house is a professional, have them show you a simulation of the pandemic using EpiModel on R. If they don’t use R, or have access to epidemiology add-ons to for their modeling software, try out GLEAMviz. 
 

I’ll leave it at this, but think I’m going to take some time off this thread for a while after, I guarantee you, few people are listening to what the true experts, not the mouth pieces, spokesperson, media release writers, the true experts, the ones working 80-100 hours a week on this.

This is vague, I hope, enough to tell. I began consulting for a state department of education in the south central United States early summer. I was to use my expertise in education, research methods, epidemiology, and biostatistics to help that state open schools safely. By the end of August, they refused to listen, told the school districts if they didn’t open by a certain date those districts would not receive funding. I expressed concerns, was told I could resign, I explained I would but they would be required to pay out the remaining, agreed up compensation. They agreed. I now consultant, as I like, for various other organizations and it’s pretty much the same thing. I tell them what I found, sometimes they agree and I keep going, sometimes they don’t and I get paid to leave.

Please try to stay healthy and safe everyone!

So disheartening to read this...ugh!  And I sure hope you don't stop posting on here...us idiots need someone like you who actually knows something and clearly has common sense.

By the way I have a degree in biology...don't know crap about epidemiology but quite a bit about the drug development process so the vaccine stuff is pretty interesting to me...and exciting.

[Janderson133 21]

14 hours ago, cu155 said:

Interesting that you bring up Hong Kong, which leads to a discussion of China and its response to the virus.  A country with more than 1 billion people that has effectively contained the virus despite early missteps, in large part because a combination of public health regulations were put in place.  People can argue about 'freedom' all they want but the reality is that someone in China currently has much more freedom to go to school or a restaurant or a doctor's visit without fear of contracting and dying from Covid than someone in the US.  Not a bad trade off.

Dude - you're nuts if:

1. You think that any information coming out of China on this topic, or any other is accurate. I mean, from concentration camps (https://www.businessinsider.com/video-chinese-ambassador-confronted-over-blindfolded-uighur-muslims-2020-7), to COVID cases (less than most US states) - there's a well documented history.

2. You'd trade this for that. I mean, life sucks sometimes in the US, but at least you get to live it without worrying about the government disappearing you because you're suddenly out of favor.

But, as I'm reminded frequently, some people like different stuff. You might honestly prefer that, and that's ok.

[klehner 756]

12 minutes ago, Janderson133 said:

Dude - you're nuts if:

1. You think that any information coming out of China on this topic, or any other is accurate. I mean, from concentration camps (https://www.businessinsider.com/video-chinese-ambassador-confronted-over-blindfolded-uighur-muslims-2020-7), to COVID cases (less than most US states) - there's a well documented history.

2. You'd trade this for that. I mean, life sucks sometimes in the US, but at least you get to live it without worrying about the government disappearing you because you're suddenly out of favor.

But, as I'm reminded frequently, some people like different stuff. You might honestly prefer that, and that's ok.

Nice false dichotomy.  If only there were some compromise between autocracy and a rampant pandemic in a free country.

[MSU158 2,044]

20 minutes ago, klehner said:

Nice false dichotomy.  If only there were some compromise between autocracy and a rampant pandemic in a free country.

So, does that mean you are endorsing China's governmental structure over the US?

[Janderson133 21]

27 minutes ago, klehner said:

Nice false dichotomy.  If only there were some compromise between autocracy and a rampant pandemic in a free country.

It's not a false dichotomy - the individual stated a preference for one over the other. Personally, I disagree (as noted), but the dichotomy is very real - I prefer this system to that one, and cu155 views the other as a worthwhile trade off. I'm not sure how to make that one simpler.

"People can argue about 'freedom' all they want but the reality is that someone in China currently has much more freedom to go to school or a restaurant or a doctor's visit without fear of contracting and dying from Covid than someone in the US.  Not a bad trade off."

[klehner 756]

10 minutes ago, MSU158 said:

So, does that mean you are endorsing China's governmental structure over the US?

Moving on from false dichotomy to straw man.  Hittin' all the logical fallacy low hanging fruit, are we?

[dman115 551]

1 minute ago, klehner said:

Moving on from false dichotomy to straw man.  Hittin' all the logical fallacy low hanging fruit, are we?

Then what is your point or stance other than spewing out buzzwords?  Would you rather live in China or the US?  Do you think all the negative the people of China have to endure is worth it for some perceived notion that they handled Covid better then the US?  Pretty simple questions.

[Janderson133 21]

2 minutes ago, klehner said:

Moving on from false dichotomy to straw man.  Hittin' all the logical fallacy low hanging fruit, are we?

Here - lemme help you. In the world as it is, you have to choose between the options that exist. If you have a banana and an apple, and you prefer the apple, it doesn't necessarily mean that you wouldn't prefer an orange. However, when you express a preference, it indicates that you 'prefer' one thing to another (in my example, the apple over the banana). 

If you would like to advocate for a third, fourth or even fifth option, feel free. But, umm, that's how preferences work when expressed in the manner above. 

[klehner 756]

13 minutes ago, dman115 said:

Then what is your point or stance other than spewing out buzzwords?  Would you rather live in China or the US?  Do you think all the negative the people of China have to endure is worth it for some perceived notion that they handled Covid better then the US?  Pretty simple questions.

Whether I want to live in the US or China is irrelevant.  Why even ask that?

[HokieHWT 593]

Ok I’ll drop this and then sit back and enjoy the thread from now on.

CoVID Vacccine

November 9-10: Pfizer & BioNTech; incomplete results; 90% effective

November 16th: Moderna; complete results with safety data; 94.5% effective; submitted for emergency approval

Today, November 18th: Pfizer & BioNTech; complete results including safety data; 95% effective; submitted for emergency appproval.

Without seeing the sampling procedures/criteria, I couldn’t tell you whether their samples are valid but I do know they were small. 30-40K in the samples and only 100-180, respectively, contracted COVID. Of the 170 who contracted COVID in the Pfizer trial, 162 were in the placebo group and 8 had received the vaccine. The data isn’t public, only high level overviews of the findings.

Additionally, confounding variables, stuff that can contribute to an observed result, such as age, weight, other sicknesses/diseases, etc., have not been mentioned, and that may be purposeful, which is concerning.

 

Edited November 18, 2020 by HokieHWT
Missed a word

[dman115 551]

Thanks Hokie!  The other part of the development of a drug/vaccine is the safety concerns and it appears neither are demonstrating any sort of adverse reaction or toxicity.  Again, sample size is smallish and time will tell since there hasn't obviously been any 2 year long double blind studies on safety.

[dman115 551]

1 hour ago, klehner said:

Whether I want to live in the US or China is irrelevant.  Why even ask that?

Then what is your point of even responding to Janderson133??  Just to try and portray some sort of intelligence by using big words?  To be a troll?  Or would you care to provide your opinion on the matter?

Here, I'll show you how to do that, in my opinion, the US could have done a better job but hindsight is 20/20 and it is super easy to play arm chair quarterback.  To think for one second that anyone from the president on down WANTS people to die and PURPOSELY makes decisions knowing people will die is completely asinine.  Even despite all that, I wouldn't want to live in any other country regardless of how "well" or "poor" arm chair quarterbacks think they have done in handling the virus.  Especially China!!!  Not sure how anyone could even remotely think China is "better" and/or the information come out of that country can be trusted.  Heck in a free country like ours one can't always trust what is "put out there" by the news agencies and our freaking government.  Anyway, all the freedoms and good things about our country FAR outweigh the bad...by a mile...compared to other countries.  And one of the greatest things about our country...if you don't like it, you are completely free to leave.  Guess what...that isn't true in China!

See klehner...that's how you respond and answer questions.  Or do you just enjoy being the troll?