NCAA championship confidence

[D3UC157 97]

What percent chance would you give for 2021 NCAA Division I Wrestling Championships occurring?

 

(I’ve got a feeling, come Jan. 20, it’s only a matter of time until the season gets killed again)

 

20%

 

 

[calot 200]

15 hours ago, D3UC157 said:

What percent chance would you give for 2021 NCAA Division I Wrestling Championships occurring?

 

(I’ve got a feeling, come Jan. 20, it’s only a matter of time until the season gets killed again)

 

20%

 

 

30.6%

[jbai3_12 5]

I have pretty low confidence with it starting in January.  What're peoples thoughts on it getting pushed to a March or April start?

[MagnetBack 33]

10% chance of the 2021 NCAA Championships occurring. 

Edited November 28, 2020 by MagnetBack

[moodybooty 27]

Only chance we got this year is a Marsteller. NCAA's ain't happening.

If they did, they'd suck because so few teams would have the resources to properly train & travel right now.

[1032004 896]

50.1%

[MizzouGrad 34]

Here’s a likely scenario: You need a certain percentage of D1 participation to have a championship. I don’t have the exact number but it’s already being eroded due to the Ivy League shutting down. If the MAC, PAC or Big12 decide to do the same, it’s not a real championship. 
 

How can the 149lb champion be a true winner if Yianni isn’t wrestling? We might get a few duals, but I have a 10-15 percent chance the championship occurs. 

[Husker_Du 578]

i'm almost positive that the 'certain % to have a championship' is already on the books. 

[ionel 1,355]

I'd say if they can do basketball then wrestling should also be a go.  Fewer events, less traveling, can reduce/minimize wrestling partners contact.  With BB & wrestling there are pretty much no obese/known pre-existing condition cases (except maybe HWT).  With new testing, tracing & most now get thru it in a couple days, better odds than football.  Now if b10 continues with 21 days that could blow up both sports & hurt wrestling more nationally.

That said I'm going 65%.

[RichB 192]

6 minutes ago, ionel said:

I'd say if they can do basketball then wrestling should also be a go.  Fewer events, less traveling, can reduce/minimize wrestling partners contact.  With BB & wrestling there are pretty much no obese/known pre-existing condition cases (except maybe HWT).  With new testing, tracing & most now get thru it in a couple days, better odds than football.  Now if b10 continues with 21 days that could blow up both sports & hurt wrestling more nationally.

That said I'm going 65%.

There was at least one known diabetic D1 qualifier this spring.

Sure see a number of asthmatics in HS events. Not sure how many are are in college.

These are pre-existing conditions, but I expect overall fitness would mean exceptionally successful recovery rates.

 

[Fletcher 703]

NCAA bball is a go; risk of transmission during a 7 min. match is much less than over an hour-long basketball game. As long as programs test team members daily (like to they do with football), should be low risk.

The ivy league's gonna look silly once they see every other school move forward with their winter sports and there's only isolated cases or no outbreaks at all.

[Class 70]

Chances of something resembling a full tourney = 1%.
 

Something watered down a bit = 10%

[JHRoseWrestling 179]

Why are we continuing on as if the revenue circumstances regarding a basketball season and a wrestling season have anything in common?

Acceptable risk should have a fairly linear relationship with anticipated reward.  Fair treatment does not have to be equal treatment.  Lastly, the long term security of NCAA wrestling hinges much more on the successful execution of a basketball tournament than whatever we can (or can't) get going on the mats this year.

[lu_alum 728]

I read somewhere that coaches were already told to expect a watered down version - with fewer qualifiers (16) per bracket. Even if that happens, which I think is a long shot, I personally don’t think fans will be in attendance.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Billyhoyle 1,988]

Have they discussed moving the tournament to May? I think it’s possible that by March enough people will have either been vaccinated or infected that numbers will have significantly dropped. At that point, they should be able to fit in an abbreviated season. 

[Fletcher 703]

10 hours ago, JHRoseWrestling said:

Why are we continuing on as if the revenue circumstances regarding a basketball season and a wrestling season have anything in common?

Acceptable risk should have a fairly linear relationship with anticipated reward.  Fair treatment does not have to be equal treatment.  Lastly, the long term security of NCAA wrestling hinges much more on the successful execution of a basketball tournament than whatever we can (or can't) get going on the mats this year.

First, only the top basketball programs in the country bring in enough revenue to cover their expenses, and that's during a non-covid year. There's going to be more money-losing basketball programs this year than ever due to attendance restrictions.

Second, I don't understand your last sentence. Are you saying March Madness revenue funds college wrestling programs?

[lu1979 338]

On 11/28/2020 at 8:23 AM, jbai3_12 said:

I have pretty low confidence with it starting in January.  What're peoples thoughts on it getting pushed to a March or April start?

That seems to me to be the best way to go.  Start a shortened season in early March and plan Conference and National tournaments for late April early May. 

[1032004 896]

2 hours ago, Fletcher said:

Second, I don't understand your last sentence. Are you saying March Madness revenue funds college wrestling programs?

Don’t want to speak for him, but I think that’s what he’s saying.  And I agree.  

But I do think having a basketball season this year means a much higher chance of a wrestling season this year.  Look no further than schools playing other non-revenue sports this fall.

[RichB 192]

8 hours ago, Billyhoyle said:

Have they discussed moving the tournament to May? I think it’s possible that by March enough people will have either been vaccinated or infected that numbers will have significantly dropped. At that point, they should be able to fit in an abbreviated season. 

I don't expect college athletes to regularly and routinely get vaccinated before July. Maybe those with underlying conditions. So who involved with wrestling gets the early vaccination. Older referees and coaches? Trainers, especially the older ones. Grandparents, PArents with conditions?     

[jdalu75 93]

Conference SIDs?

Some football teams are managing, though there are some setbacks.  Denver had to play a sub wide receiver at QB today; they got throttled but the game was played.  I thought for sure MLB would have to shut down after a couple of teams had entire weeks wiped out, but they managed. 

Despite the extra year proposed by the NCAA, I don't think many athletes can put their lives on hold for an additional year.  I think there's a big push to get the year in somehow for those who are able to compete.  I think there's a better than even chance we see an NCAA tournament, although we may lose teams and even a conference or two.

[Billyhoyle 1,988]

26 minutes ago, RichB said:

I don't expect college athletes to regularly and routinely get vaccinated before July. Maybe those with underlying conditions. So who involved with wrestling gets the early vaccination. Older referees and coaches? Trainers, especially the older ones. Grandparents, PArents with conditions?     

The most optimistic projections are that the entire country can get vaccinated by the spring.  Even if not, I think enough people will have been vaccinated or infected by March  that we see the positivity rate drop due to herd immunity effects. Impossible to say for sure, but that’s my prediction. 

[1032004 896]

2 hours ago, RichB said:

I don't expect college athletes to regularly and routinely get vaccinated before July. Maybe those with underlying conditions. So who involved with wrestling gets the early vaccination. Older referees and coaches? Trainers, especially the older ones. Grandparents, PArents with conditions?     

Couldn't colleges require it?

https://www.wmcactionnews5.com/2020/11/20/university-tennessee-students-may-be-required-take-covid-vaccine-next-year/

Edited November 30, 2020 by 1032004

[Billyhoyle 1,988]

32 minutes ago, 1032004 said:

Couldn't colleges require it?

https://www.wmcactionnews5.com/2020/11/20/university-tennessee-students-may-be-required-take-covid-vaccine-next-year/

Colleges are definitely going to require it, just like they do for other standard vaccinations. 

[JHRoseWrestling 179]

12 hours ago, Fletcher said:

First, only the top basketball programs in the country bring in enough revenue to cover their expenses, and that's during a non-covid year. There's going to be more money-losing basketball programs this year than ever due to attendance restrictions.

Second, I don't understand your last sentence. Are you saying March Madness revenue funds college wrestling programs?

Yes, that is what I'm saying.  Thanks for asking nicely.

To your first point, I haven't spent time evaluating covid impact on individual basketball programs, regardless of size.  What I do know is that the March madness basketball tournament funds the entire operating budget of the NCAA, and there is revenue sharing from this event among member institutions.  In a normal year the divide is 40% of the expected $700M to the NCAA, 60% to the membership.

All of my points remain the same as above.  I am happy to add nauseating amounts of support and detail to this understanding, but hopefully this clarifies things.

[Plasmodium 1,606]

I am not much of a BB fan, but figured it is the easiest to profit from.  I followed my narrative and easily found data on the internet to certify my narrative is valid.   I found this site which lists 355 programs and their bottom lines.  I assume all are March Madness eligible and that is why they were selected.

Anyway, my narrative is correct and 329 out of 352 reported break even or better. Fewer than 20 lost more than 100k.  No financial data was listed for the 3 service academies.

Edited November 30, 2020 by Plasmodium